SRy OP for what happend to you but assuming the expected drop rate at about 1.1% then opening 100 boxes still only gives you a 66% chance of finding one or more ships. Even at 150 boxes sour chance still is only at 81%. You seem to be one of the unlucky 19%..
Even if he opened 1000 boxes he would still only have a 1.1% chance per box it is not cumulative, and therefore a 98.9% chance of not getting it.
I want this ship bad, I really want it bad. I dropped 300$ to get it, thats 48,000 zen all spent on boxes, 187 of them, there has to be a bug for me to not have gotten it. what gives
Thank you for supporting STO..................................
Jellico....Engineer ground.....Da'val Romulan space Sci
Saphire.. Science ground......Ko'el Romulan space Tac
Leva........Tactical ground.....Koj Romulan space Eng
JJ-Verse will never be Canon or considered Lore...It will always be JJ-Verse
Even if he opened 1000 boxes he would still only have a 1.1% chance per box it is not cumulative, and therefore a 98.9% chance of not getting it.
This is correct, however, its also possible to calculate the cumulative odds on a block of random events before the fact. (Casinos and Insurance Firms do this all the time...) But you need to take Upper Division College course on Probability and Statistics to understand this...
Even if he opened 1000 boxes he would still only have a 1.1% chance per box it is not cumulative, and therefore a 98.9% chance of not getting it.
Semantics. After having opened 1,000 boxes, chances are he has his ship by now. Like rolling dice: you can't roll a thousand times, and never have the number 6 come up (at least the odds are astronomically stacked against that).
Then chances say he should have gotten a ship after having opened 90.9 boxes. He opened 187. That is statistically still possible, but enough to warrant the legit question whether maybe the odds are different from what people assume here.
The sneaky part, on Cryptic's end, is flashing the winners in chat. That (falsely) gives people the impression that others are winning left and right, and that it's really super-easy. And they do win, but what they don't show you, of course, is how dismal the odds are.
I want this ship bad, I really want it bad. I dropped 300$ to get it, thats 48,000 zen all spent on boxes, 187 of them, there has to be a bug for me to not have gotten it. what gives
Every time that the bug ship's come up for sale since I started playing (2 years ago?) someone's posted on the forums that they spent over $100 and didn't get it.
(Cue the inevitable " I got it on my first try" post.)
At least you didn't sell 60 keys for the price of one on the exchange.
Comments
Even if he opened 1000 boxes he would still only have a 1.1% chance per box it is not cumulative, and therefore a 98.9% chance of not getting it.
Thank you for supporting STO..................................
Saphire.. Science ground......Ko'el Romulan space Tac
Leva........Tactical ground.....Koj Romulan space Eng
JJ-Verse will never be Canon or considered Lore...It will always be JJ-Verse
This is correct, however, its also possible to calculate the cumulative odds on a block of random events before the fact. (Casinos and Insurance Firms do this all the time...) But you need to take Upper Division College course on Probability and Statistics to understand this...
Semantics. After having opened 1,000 boxes, chances are he has his ship by now. Like rolling dice: you can't roll a thousand times, and never have the number 6 come up (at least the odds are astronomically stacked against that).
Then chances say he should have gotten a ship after having opened 90.9 boxes. He opened 187. That is statistically still possible, but enough to warrant the legit question whether maybe the odds are different from what people assume here.
The sneaky part, on Cryptic's end, is flashing the winners in chat. That (falsely) gives people the impression that others are winning left and right, and that it's really super-easy. And they do win, but what they don't show you, of course, is how dismal the odds are.
Every time that the bug ship's come up for sale since I started playing (2 years ago?) someone's posted on the forums that they spent over $100 and didn't get it.
(Cue the inevitable " I got it on my first try" post.)
At least you didn't sell 60 keys for the price of one on the exchange.