Changes in Warsoul Mat Chances?

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Comments

  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    You still can not comprehend. What you observe and what can happen are two different things.

    what cannot i comprehend? please do tell... I'm not talking about what will happen at what chance, i'm talking about what has happened or could happen and the chances of it happening as 1 event... still fail troll b:chuckle
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    what cannot i comprehend? please do tell... I'm not talking about what will happen at what chance, i'm talking about what has happened or could happen and the chances of it happening as 1 event... still fail troll b:chuckle

    Read the previous post above you
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    Read the previous post above you

    reading comprehension... of course, there is no uncertainty in things that have already happened. Still not what I'm talking about... still fail troll b:chuckle
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    MiniST wrote:
    - Sanctuary;17395861. Still not what I'm talking about... still fail troll b:chuckle

    Poor Mini still don't get it b:chuckle
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    Poor Mini still don't get it b:chuckle

    explain what don't i get... b:chuckle except the troll part, which i do get b:laugh
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    explain what don't i get... b:chuckle except the troll part, which i do get b:laugh

    You are performing an analysis of your observations which will not reflect the probability rate of getting that item nor will it tell your even loosely how you will fair during the any future rolls. You assumed I was referring to that in my first post. I even cleared that up on my follow up post.

    .
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    You are performing an analysis of your observations which will not reflect the probability rate of getting that item nor will it tell your even loosely how you will fair during the any future rolls. You assumed I was referring to that in my first post. I even cleared that up on my follow up post.

    .

    This is precisely why I tell you to read... I'm not preforming such analysis... I don't care about my future rolls cause in reality, i ran out money. I'm just stating the probability of what happened to me out of all the outcomes... This is not gambler's fallacy...
  • XxRagzxx - Sanctuary
    XxRagzxx - Sanctuary Posts: 258 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Why are you not using Tsu Ghost Masks?
    I have made this warsoul multiple times using them.
    Archer Build:
    pwcalc.com/d38eec6e1f27c7a6
    Sin Build:
    pwcalc.com/d74f267d3be72784
  • Yudai - Sanctuary
    Yudai - Sanctuary Posts: 145 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    if you want correct percentages use the in-game encyclopedia o:
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Thanks NowItsAwn.
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    I'm not preforming such analysis...

    WOW when you fail you fail hard. That analysis was in your first post b:chuckle
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    WOW when you fail you fail hard. That analysis was in your first post b:chuckle

    lmao, you really have no reading comprehension skills at all. Where in my first post have I analyzed my future roll chances. I really did spend 111 evil minion shells... You are so noob it's pitiful b:laugh
  • Decus - Dreamweaver
    Decus - Dreamweaver Posts: 5,033 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Responses like the ones in this thread make me realize how poorly some people understand math.
    Proving that not only archers do math since 2009. b:victory
    Current math challenge: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1029711&page=45
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    "Any skills that can be used to kill you will interrupt BB when successful." -truekossy | "...Sage archers are kind of like Mac owners. They are proud of the weirdest and most unnecessary things." -Aesthor | "We ALL know Jesus doesn't play PWI. He may have suffered a lot for humanity, but he'd NEVER punish himself this way." -Abstractive | "I approve of bananas." -SashaGray
  • Yudai - Sanctuary
    Yudai - Sanctuary Posts: 145 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    i just did the work for you and looked up the % for success in the in-game encyclopedia. The correct percent is 1.7778% success rate.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Thanks NowItsAwn.
  • jimbillybob46310
    jimbillybob46310 Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Let me see i f i can help here without coming off like a D0uche like others.
    Each roll has a 1.7778% chance of success. Now the law of averages would say that for every 100 attempts you should get 1.7778 mats. Unfortunately we arent talking about averages.
    Probability doesnt reset with more tries, no matter how many times you have failed already. Everytime you try to make it u have a 1.7778% chance to succeeed. PERIOD.
    Its just like the say .02% chance to get a SoT from a pack. if u opened 1m packs theres no guarantee you would get a SoT.
    hope this helps.
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    jimbillybob46310 wrote: »
    Let me see i f i can help here without coming off like a D0uche like others.
    Each roll has a 1.7778% chance of success. Now the law of averages would say that for every 100 attempts you should get 1.7778 mats. Unfortunately we arent talking about averages.
    Probability doesnt reset with more tries, no matter how many times you have failed already. Everytime you try to make it u have a 1.7778% chance to succeeed. PERIOD.
    Its just like the say .02% chance to get a SoT from a pack. if u opened 1m packs theres no guarantee you would get a SoT.
    hope this helps.

    This is exactly what I'm not doing. I'm not rolling anymore. Everytime I posted an edit, it was after I rolled. I'm not predicting anything nor expecting anything. I'm just stating the chances of 0 mats at 10% with 40 to 111 rolls out of all possible outcomes and somehow I manage to hit that chance. This is basic probability... This is exactly what salari can't understand. People think they know a tiny bit of mathematics and that it applies to everything... it doesn't...

    Also, i'm trolling him, lol. He should have figured it out after I told him not to go near a casino XD oh well...
  • Aasaf - Sanctuary
    Aasaf - Sanctuary Posts: 356 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    Give your 111 evil minion shells to me mini b:cute. I will get you 1 warsoul mat, guaranteed b:avoid. Fun to read the thread.

    I'll start stockpiling tsu ghost mask b:pleased.
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Also, i'm trolling him, lol. He should have figured it out after I told him not to go near a casino XD oh well...


    You have only been trolling yourself this whole time b:chuckle
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
    damn, the butthurt is strong in this one. Pulls the thread off some unknown page and nitpicks on my post b:chuckle

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