Changes in Warsoul Mat Chances?

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MiniST - Sanctuary
MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
edited August 2012 in General Discussion
Is there any changes in the chances of getting warsoul mats from things like evil minion shells. Supposedly it says 10% chance to get a Ksitigarhba piece from it. It has been 40 evil minion shells and nothing... that's 1.47 % chance....

edit: now it's up to 52... 0.417% chance of this happening...

edit: now it's up to 62... 0.1455% chance of this happening...

edit: now it's up to 72... 0.0507% chance of this happening...

edit: now it's up to 82... 0.017696% chance of this happening...

edit: now it's up to 91... 0.006855% chance of this happening...

edit: now it's up to 101...0.00239%

edit: now it's up to 111...0.0008335%
Post edited by MiniST - Sanctuary on
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  • Subtraction - Harshlands
    Subtraction - Harshlands Posts: 690 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Is there any changes in the chances of getting warsoul mats from things like evil minion shells. Supposedly it says 10% chance to get a Ksitigarhba piece from it. It has been 40 evil minion shells and nothing... that's 1.47 % chance....

    edit: now it's up to 52... 0.417% chance of this happening...

    edit: now it's up to 62... 0.1455% chance of this happening...

    edit: now it's up to 72... 0.0507% chance of this happening...

    there's a chance to get it.

    10% doesn't mean you will use ten shells and get 1 warsoul mat guaranteed.
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  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Subtraction - Harshlands wrote: »
    there's a chance to get it.

    10% doesn't mean you will use ten shells and get 1 warsoul mat guaranteed.

    but at 91 shell, you start questioning whether they number they gave u is correct. If it's not, then I was my money back... this is total bs. 0.006% chance...
  • Particle - Lost City
    Particle - Lost City Posts: 17 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/recipe/3262

    It says it has a fail "robability" of 98.22%.
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Particle - Lost City wrote: »
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/recipe/3262

    It says it has a fail "robability" of 98.22%.

    wtf... then why the hell does the advanced info link on forums say 10%...
  • Aasaf - Sanctuary
    Aasaf - Sanctuary Posts: 356 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Can you link the advanced info link mini?

    I believe that link is old, because 8~10 months ago when i was looking into this, all the mats had low probablities and i found that tsu ghost mask was the best item to use that was not 100%.

    Most tt mats have a very low probability to succeed sadly. I opted to farm coins to chip the mats, for this specific piece.
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    http://pwi.perfectworld.com/gameinfo/advinfo/ultimate
  • Aasaf - Sanctuary
    Aasaf - Sanctuary Posts: 356 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Ancient Tinder = 30 = Warsoul: Vajra Fragment 1, 100%

    This one is messed up with lunar mats to. From what i recall 5 lunar gold mats = 1 fragment, buy them at 1~2m, costs 5~10m, beats the chip price, or do lunar and get it for free :D.

    That site is outdated, some numbers are right, but others are wrong. I would rather go with in-game encyclopedia on chances.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    http://pwi.perfectworld.com/gameinfo/advinfo/ultimate

    That link still has frost mats on it... doesn't even have the warsong emblem trade in. I'm afraid its very out of date. Use the in game encyclopedia or PWDB (when did he add the chance to fail?). The NPC has some instruction text that tells the percentages but I wouldnt trust that either.
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  • Zanir - Lothranis
    Zanir - Lothranis Posts: 106 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    It is completely random. The percentages given mean nothing, I recently farmed a cube necklace for my wife and I had some varying results. Oddly the fragment made from TT mats was the easiest to get, used 15 Astral Stones and got 2 of them. Meanwhile the one made from Pstones took me...oh probably 300 tries give or take to get just one.

    Only advice I can offer is to just keep at it and not let the numbers discourage you...or sell the mats you're using instead and simply chip them. But that's something you'll have to decide for yourself based on how your luck is going.

    Good luck on your warsoul fragments.
  • phisyc
    phisyc Posts: 27 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    The true chances of making warsoul fragments are given in Encyclopedia,the chance to make Ksitigarhba Fragment of Evil Minions Shell is 1,7778 %
  • _Skai_ - Raging Tide
    _Skai_ - Raging Tide Posts: 3,407 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Chances are chances unfortunately. The majority of PWI is a lot of gambling actually.
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  • MagicEmpress - Lost City
    MagicEmpress - Lost City Posts: 795 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    The Warsoul npc tells you the success rates in game.

    My advice would be to sell all those mats you are using and buy the big mats you need for the 100% success rate one.
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    MagicEmpress - Lost City wrote: »
    The Warsoul npc tells you the success rates in game.

    My advice would be to sell all those mats you are using and buy the big mats you need for the 100% success rate one.

    where does the warsoul npc tell you the success rate in the game?

    ah nvm, i got it. Guess it's just stupidity on my part...

    Eitherway, it freaking misleading as ****. The most accessible information is wrong... they should have taken the page down ages ago then...

    Edit: I was tricked the first time, I got 1 mat from 12 Evil Minion Shells... lol... so i thought i was a still 10%. Also, i got 1 of the other mats I think Vajra from 3 transparent crystals and 1 elemental essence...
  • gyroki
    gyroki Posts: 450 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    I wrote it already a few weeks ago, the cheapest way to get this ws mat is by using Ancient Tinders (if you buy them from shops for 2-3m each). Ancient Tinders have no other useful purpose and ppl obtain them even more than before (because they get them very often in lunar runs which they have to do to get Essences of Defense for 3rd cast nv gear).
  • shashahah
    shashahah Posts: 323 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    another proof they dont tell us ANY important changes (patchonte info etc)...
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    What do you expect. The wiki is user maintained, the forums are user maintained. What has pwe/pwi/whatever applied to this game except make a post every now and then. Even new updates are plastered on the forums days, weeks even months before any thread is made by a gm ect. If users did not share their knowledge in game or on the forums/wiki and even the likes of pwdatabase and pwcalc no one would have a clue about anything
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
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    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Is there any changes in the chances of getting warsoul mats from things like evil minion shells. Supposedly it says 10% chance to get a Ksitigarhba piece from it. It has been 40 evil minion shells and nothing... that's 1.47 % chance....

    edit: now it's up to 52... 0.417% chance of this happening...

    edit: now it's up to 62... 0.1455% chance of this happening...

    edit: now it's up to 72... 0.0507% chance of this happening...

    edit: now it's up to 82... 0.017696% chance of this happening...

    edit: now it's up to 91... 0.006855% chance of this happening...

    edit: now it's up to 101...0.00239%

    edit: now it's up to 111...0.0008335%

    btw that is now how rolling the dice works. It is not stacked bettering the odds on next roll. The probability is "per roll". You could get the item on the first roll or 1k rolls later

    If you literally roll 2 dice on the floor you are not removing the side that faces up when they stop. Those odd's still exist on the next roll.
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    btw that is now how rolling the dice works. It is not stacked bettering the odds on next roll. The probability is "per roll". You could get the item on the first roll or 1k rolls later

    If you literally roll 2 dice on the floor you are not removing the side that faces up when they stop. Those odd's still exist on the next roll.

    ... are u serious... as an event the probability of getting no mats at 10% 101 times is that chance that I stated. Learn some math before you talk pls...
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    ... are u serious... as an event the probability of getting no mats at 10% 101 times is that chance that I stated. Learn some math before you talk pls...
    Sorry but you need to learn how to read, you are applying the math wrong. The probability is the same per roll. Your percentages are based on your 111 experiences of trying for that piece not what the actual probability rate is per roll. You can try once or 1000 times, the rate is the same(generally aside cpu errors). It is irrelevant if you do or do not get any items during the tries.
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    Sorry but you need to learn how to read, you are applying the math wrong. The probability is the same per roll. Your percentages are based on your 111 experiences of trying for that piece not what the actual probability rate is per roll. You can try once or 1000 times, the rate is the same(generally aside cpu errors). It is irrelevant if you do or do not get any items during the tries.

    Yes, the probability is the same per roll. But as a whole, the probability of getting 111 rolls of nothing at 10% probability is the number I have stated... why would i care about the probability per roll when they are always the same... I was stating what just happened to me, if I rolled this 1 billion times each of 111 rolls at 10% each, you would expect 8335 times that it comes out you get no mats... I suggest you stay away from casinos...
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    That is the problem, what you get does not reflect the actual rate. Even at 1b rolls you could get none or get 1b items. Again you are applying the math wrong. There are no expectations in probability only chance.
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • Jaabg - Sanctuary
    Jaabg - Sanctuary Posts: 2,256 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    That is the problem, what you get does not reflect the actual rate. Even at 1b rolls you could get none or get 1b items. Again you are applying the math wrong. There are no expectations in probability only chance.

    Wow, just Wow b:bye.

    So much for my degree in stats, and applied stats. Sorry mini, the chance of you getting the warsoul mat is 0%, i am 100% sure of that b:shutup. I'll go burn up my degree now, wasted frikin 7 years of my life b:sad b:bye. *Want to join me while i drink away my sorrows?b:laugh*
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Jaabg - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Wow, just Wow b:bye.

    So much for my degree in stats, and applied stats. Sorry mini, the chance of you getting the warsoul mat is 0%, i am 100% sure of that b:shutup. I'll go burn up my degree now, wasted frikin 7 years of my life b:sad b:bye. *Want to join me while i drink away my sorrows?b:laugh*

    Seems you did not pay attention in class. Probability is about what can happen not what will happen.
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • Jaabg - Sanctuary
    Jaabg - Sanctuary Posts: 2,256 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    So it's safe to say in an infinite universe, things won't happen just because there is a chance they won't? Only certain event can take place.
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    I never said the previous poster had no chance only that the probability is the same, you assumed that in your post which made your comment flawed. Her observation did not change nor reflect the probability(only that probability exists).
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • laloner
    laloner Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    btw that is now how rolling the dice works. It is not stacked bettering the odds on next roll. The probability is "per roll". You could get the item on the first roll or 1k rolls later

    If you literally roll 2 dice on the floor you are not removing the side that faces up when they stop. Those odd's still exist on the next roll.

    You have a poor understanding of mathematics.
    AKA PermaSpark, Heartshatter
  • MiniST - Sanctuary
    MiniST - Sanctuary Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    Salari - Raging Tide wrote: »
    I never said the previous poster had no chance only that the probability is the same, you assumed that in your post which made your comment flawed. Her observation did not change nor reflect the probability(only that probability exists).

    fail troll is fail... at least make something more believable... lrntoexpectedratevsactualrate durr b:chuckle and nobody said the probability is different for each roll. It's the same. But i'm not wrong about the chances of getting 111 rolls of nothing at 10%... and you are also talking about the next roll which is not what i'm talking about... I'm talking about what have already taken place b:chuckle silly troll, troll harder b:bye
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    fail troll is fail... at least make something more believable... lrntoexpectedratevsactualrate durr b:chuckle and nobody said the probability is different for each roll. It's the same. But i'm not wrong about the chances of getting 111 rolls of nothing at 10%... and you are also talking about the next roll which is not what i'm talking about... I'm talking about what have already taken place b:chuckle silly troll, troll harder b:bye

    You still can not comprehend. What you observe and what can happen are two different things.
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    laloner wrote: »
    You have a poor understanding of mathematics.

    You have zero understanding of probability which is not mathematics. You are confusing two different things, probability and probability theory which is a branch of mathematics.
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • SashaGray - Heavens Tear
    SashaGray - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,765 Arc User
    edited August 2012
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    MiniST - Sanctuary wrote: »
    fail troll is fail... at least make something more believable... lrntoexpectedratevsactualrate durr b:chuckle and nobody said the probability is different for each roll. It's the same. But i'm not wrong about the chances of getting 111 rolls of nothing at 10%... and you are also talking about the next roll which is not what i'm talking about... I'm talking about what have already taken place b:chuckle silly troll, troll harder b:bye

    there is no element of uncertainty in things that already happened.

    how much money worth of evil minion shells have you wasted? use green mats that have little market value, or chip it
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

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