Probability for Sage Ice Dragon in random books

24

Comments

  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    umm ty. i set up shop buying 150k a page. so 45m on skills. and i sold the first BT and MS for 23m and 20m respectively so GG.
  • Ishmah - Sanctuary
    Ishmah - Sanctuary Posts: 192 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    If the pwdatabase is correct, then there is a 20% chance to make BID (or 80% chance NOT to make it).

    So, how many tries are needed before you can complain?

    1. 4/5 = 80% chance you won't get it.
    2. 4/5 x 4/5 = 64% chance won't get it.
    3. 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5 = 51% chance you won't get it. (3 tries and still odds against getting it).
    4. 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5= 41% chance still not get it.
    5. 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5 x 4/5 =33% chance (approx 1/3) you won't get it.

    etc.

    There is a chance element. You are not guaranteed on making it....even if you make 100 attempts.
  • Kristoph - Lost City
    Kristoph - Lost City Posts: 2,016 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Btw, B> Sage Mountain's Seize on Lost City.
    Wondering how much longer these **** packs are going to be around.
  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Yeah. I already know that Ishmah. I already calculated that the chance of getting BIDS in 10 books is 1-(4/5)^10. 89.3% of getting BIDS in 10 books. Am I really that unlucky?
  • Ishmah - Sanctuary
    Ishmah - Sanctuary Posts: 192 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Yeah. I already know that Ishmah. I already calculated that the chance of getting BIDS in 10 books is 1-(4/5)^10. 89.3% of getting BIDS in 10 books. Am I really that unlucky?

    Well, if 893 people out of 1,000 get it after 10 tries, then 107 don't. You are one of the 107 it would seem.

    But, given a perfect distribution, one person would have got it 10 times in a row too...and considering they couldn't use all ten I'm guessing some would be for sale. So, maybe bite the bullet and buy in AH...or keep trying. You'll get it eventually...I mean...surely...you couldn't be one of the 107 again after another 10 tries could you? b:sad

    Edit - oops. Maybe people stop after they get it so none in AH....so much for probability
  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Not like it matters. I'll get it eventually. . .that's what I'll have to tell myself eh?
  • Mizuoni - Dreamweaver
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,533 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Not like it matters. I'll get it eventually. . .that's what I'll have to tell myself eh?

    i belive in you fizzy!


    and @BrownFlameZ

    Q.Q that accounts for 400 of my posts.
    Sins are Scissors. Psychics are Rocks.
    Archers, Venos, Barbs, Wizards, BMs, Mystics, Seekers are Paper.
    ...and Clerics are Mushrooms.
    Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper. Scissors also happens to beat Rock...until Rock gets 50k+ soulforce at which point Rock becomes an unstoppable killing machine that beats Paper... and would beat Scissors but it can't find Scissors, because Scissors are invisible.
    So Scissors beat Paper and avoids Rock, and that is called BALANCE. -cheze
  • Mumintroll - Heavens Tear
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    1) BT
    2 )MS
    3) FoW
    4) BT
    5) FoW
    6) BT
    7) GS
    8) BT
    9) FoW
    10) BT

    anyone need a BT? lol

    me but wrong server.b:cry
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Xegeth - Dreamweaver
    Xegeth - Dreamweaver Posts: 389 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Next try was sage MS here... At least it has some resell value. ><
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • BrownflameZ - Lost City
    BrownflameZ - Lost City Posts: 416 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    me but wrong server.b:cry

    WTB> Cash shop teleport stone to port from one server to another. LETS FARK UP THE ECONOMY MOARRR.
  • Xegeth - Dreamweaver
    Xegeth - Dreamweaver Posts: 389 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Sixth book Force of Will -.- Slowly it starts to annoy me... I cannot even resell that one properly, yay for another 5-6M wasted for nothing... Is this server cursed? Fizzy and me opened a bunch of 16 skillbooks together, not one single Ice Dragon. The probability of not getting that book in 16 tries is 2.8%.. Wow, we are really lucky!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Mizuoni - Dreamweaver
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,533 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Ursa and Satchiko are the only 2 on server who have it. Ursa quit and Satchiko learned it so....
    Sins are Scissors. Psychics are Rocks.
    Archers, Venos, Barbs, Wizards, BMs, Mystics, Seekers are Paper.
    ...and Clerics are Mushrooms.
    Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper. Scissors also happens to beat Rock...until Rock gets 50k+ soulforce at which point Rock becomes an unstoppable killing machine that beats Paper... and would beat Scissors but it can't find Scissors, because Scissors are invisible.
    So Scissors beat Paper and avoids Rock, and that is called BALANCE. -cheze
  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Oh, what're you worrying about xeg, you're not even 99 yet.
  • Xegeth - Dreamweaver
    Xegeth - Dreamweaver Posts: 389 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Yea fizzy, I am not 99 because of that. I don't really wanna turn 99 without all 5 skillbooks. If I had only one skillbook or something it would be ok. But having all but Ice Dragon feels kinda incomplete, as if someone was kidding me. b:shutup I could have dinged a while ago..

    BTW: Next try MS again lol, my third... Anyone need?

    and Mizu: I always thought that is because no one is trying. Because there are not many high lvl sage wizards on this server. But now I begin to think it is something different lol. ._.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Mizuoni - Dreamweaver
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,533 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Xegeth - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Yea fizzy, I am not 99 because of that. I don't really wanna turn 99 without all 5 skillbooks. If I had only one skillbook or something it would be ok. But having all but Ice Dragon feels kinda incomplete, as if someone was kidding me. b:shutup I could have dinged a while ago..

    BTW: Next try MS again lol, my third... Anyone need?

    and Mizu: I always thought that is because no one is trying. Because there are not many high lvl sage wizards on this server. But now I begin to think it is something different lol. ._.

    GIMME MS!

    Ignore fizzy, he didnt like the fact i didnt want to turn 90 without my 90 gear b:chuckle
    Sins are Scissors. Psychics are Rocks.
    Archers, Venos, Barbs, Wizards, BMs, Mystics, Seekers are Paper.
    ...and Clerics are Mushrooms.
    Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper. Scissors also happens to beat Rock...until Rock gets 50k+ soulforce at which point Rock becomes an unstoppable killing machine that beats Paper... and would beat Scissors but it can't find Scissors, because Scissors are invisible.
    So Scissors beat Paper and avoids Rock, and that is called BALANCE. -cheze
  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    That's stupid. Anyway, my 11th book was MS also. But I wanted that one so :P
  • _makina_ - Sanctuary
    _makina_ - Sanctuary Posts: 747 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Maybe PW is evil and makes it so only players under and not at 99 get books they dont want b:shocked.....















    im just playing. GL with you getting a book btw.

    edit - aww nvm you hit 99 i see gratz.
  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    lol i've been 99. i just gave up and let my friend open the books now. apparently my char didn't cash shop enough so i don't have the special super secret hidden +50 luck attribute.
  • Mizuoni - Dreamweaver
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,533 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    lol i've been 99. i just gave up and let my friend open the books now. apparently my char didn't cash shop enough so i don't have the special super secret hidden +50 luck attribute.

    b:chuckle
    i wonder how it will go when i make my books.

    I got fire mastery on my first book o.O
    Sins are Scissors. Psychics are Rocks.
    Archers, Venos, Barbs, Wizards, BMs, Mystics, Seekers are Paper.
    ...and Clerics are Mushrooms.
    Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper. Scissors also happens to beat Rock...until Rock gets 50k+ soulforce at which point Rock becomes an unstoppable killing machine that beats Paper... and would beat Scissors but it can't find Scissors, because Scissors are invisible.
    So Scissors beat Paper and avoids Rock, and that is called BALANCE. -cheze
  • BrownflameZ - Lost City
    BrownflameZ - Lost City Posts: 416 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    b:chuckle
    i wonder how it will go when i make my books.

    I got fire mastery on my first book o.O

    LOL So did I! Traded it for a earth mastery =D
    Got Morning dew when I got a book with tokens -.-
  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    BrownflameZ - Lost City wrote: »
    LOL So did I! Traded it for a earth mastery =D
    Got Mountain dew when I got a book with tokens -.-


    Oh yeah. I spam mountain dew when and it heals me from my lack of sleep.
  • Mizuoni - Dreamweaver
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,533 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    BrownflameZ - Lost City wrote: »
    LOL So did I! Traded it for a earth mastery =D
    Got Mountain dew when I got a book with tokens -.-

    i want water mastery D:



    lol i thought i was the only one who drinks mountain dew to stay awake
    Sins are Scissors. Psychics are Rocks.
    Archers, Venos, Barbs, Wizards, BMs, Mystics, Seekers are Paper.
    ...and Clerics are Mushrooms.
    Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper. Scissors also happens to beat Rock...until Rock gets 50k+ soulforce at which point Rock becomes an unstoppable killing machine that beats Paper... and would beat Scissors but it can't find Scissors, because Scissors are invisible.
    So Scissors beat Paper and avoids Rock, and that is called BALANCE. -cheze
  • Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver Posts: 256 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    i was lying. i don't drink mountain dew. and what's wrong with fire mastery?
  • BrownflameZ - Lost City
    BrownflameZ - Lost City Posts: 416 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Morning dew*
    I've been calling that mountain dew, over and over. -.-
    God im so out of it.
  • Mizuoni - Dreamweaver
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver Posts: 3,533 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mage_Fizban - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    i was lying. i don't drink mountain dew. and what's wrong with fire mastery?

    i really dont use fire skills that much. I would rather get earth or water. -sigh-
    Sins are Scissors. Psychics are Rocks.
    Archers, Venos, Barbs, Wizards, BMs, Mystics, Seekers are Paper.
    ...and Clerics are Mushrooms.
    Paper beats Rock. Scissors beats Paper. Scissors also happens to beat Rock...until Rock gets 50k+ soulforce at which point Rock becomes an unstoppable killing machine that beats Paper... and would beat Scissors but it can't find Scissors, because Scissors are invisible.
    So Scissors beat Paper and avoids Rock, and that is called BALANCE. -cheze
  • Konariraiden - Heavens Tear
    Konariraiden - Heavens Tear Posts: 6,505 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Mizuoni - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    i really dont use fire skills that much. I would rather get earth or water. -sigh-

    Pssh...I'm getting all 3.

    b:cool
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    Yeah, it's me. Don't read to much into it, though; I'm only here for myself now, killin' time and chillin' when need-be. So sue me. Tch...
  • Nukesrus - Harshlands
    Nukesrus - Harshlands Posts: 665 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    BrownflameZ - Lost City wrote: »
    Morning dew*
    I've been calling that mountain dew, over and over. -.-
    God im so out of it.


    I wish it was called mountain dew, then I could shout things like "DO THE DEW" whenever I sutra healed a tank.
  • Mumintroll - Heavens Tear
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Here is my arsenal.
    Sage: all 3 masteries, all 3 basic spells(pyro,stone,gush), pyroshell,phoenix, morning dew(req.99 but I have book),Glacial snare(lv.99), emberstorm.
    If any1 on my server has some book which I don't have it and want to sell it, pls. contact me.b:thanks
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Mumintroll - Heavens Tear
    Mumintroll - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,393 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    So today I make my first ultimate skill from pages. It was BT. Not bad.b:pleased
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Bloop - Harshlands
    Bloop - Harshlands Posts: 490 Arc User
    edited February 2010
    Be happy.. although my first book was sage BIDS.. the next 3 were glacial snare's...
    60 / 250.

Categories