Any news on gold price balancing?

Sidious - Harshlands

I've read the forums for a bit tonight seeing weeks/months go by with people saying "it will go down soon". They aren't going down and now it has become very very difficult to obtain cash shop items without buying them yourself straight out of the cash shop. I honestly would love to meet the veno that bought 100m coins worth of feathers/sources for their pets or the barbs that buy 2 charms per TW for catas. Really there is no time efficient way to farm the required amount to buy gold as a non/infrequent cash shopper u nless you are a veno. HH/TT items...yeah try again.

So where is the news on how this was supposed to be balanced out? I am lazy so I won't find the post but we were told something was going to be done. I sure hoping shoveling out more "Events" to buy gold wasn't the answer.

Deceptistar - Sanctuary

well the anni packs are going out and the current packs arent as appealing as when the anni packs came out first time sooo....

Sidious - Harshlands

So hope that the new "events" won't hurt as badly as the anni packs did is the solution? I need to hang out with you, maybe some of that optimism will rub off on me:P Nice level, oracles or the hard way?(just to make sure I'm giving the proper props)

eatwithspoons

Keep in mind that sales are not events, I just want to make sure this thread doesn't mislead anyone. b:victory

Xeian - Dreamweaver

christmas around the corner scarf up gold while it's "cheap" (this is how predictable PWI is on sales)

Deceptistar - Sanctuary

Sidious - Harshlands wrote: »

So hope that the new "events" won't hurt as badly as the anni packs did is the solution? I need to hang out with you, maybe some of that optimism will rub off on me:P Nice level, oracles or the hard way?(just to make sure I'm giving the proper props)

no oracles, less than 20 deltas.

Sidious - Harshlands

Deceptistar - Sanctuary wrote: »

well the anni packs are going out and the current packs arent as appealing as when the anni packs came out first time sooo....

eatwithspoons wrote: »

Keep in mind that sales are not events, I just want to make sure this thread doesn't mislead anyone. b:victory

Jolly Jones event was a cash shop event was it not? The anniversary celebration was a buy your anniversary gift event was it not? Maybe too many years of gaming, being married and having kids has turned be pessimistic, but I am usually willing to admit when I'm wrong. All I know is to be as competitive as I am you need to have charms, and there is just no way at these gold prices one can keep up without cash shopping them twice a day.(yeah the level but I took a break my wife didn't so yeah)

IDaun - Dreamweaver

Sidious - Harshlands wrote: »

So hope that the new "events" won't hurt as badly as the anni packs did is the solution? I need to hang out with you, maybe some of that optimism will rub off on me:P Nice level, oracles or the hard way?(just to make sure I'm giving the proper props)

that's pretty much all we can hope for now. >> Even JJ event (that previously made gold go UP) would make gold go down substantially. It's sad. b:sad

remorhaz

Xeian - Dreamweaver wrote: »

christmas around the corner scarf up gold while it's "cheap" (this is how predictable PWI is on sales)

ya because no other company in the world has sales for the holidays, just PWI because they be greedy! c wut i did thur?

Xeian - Dreamweaver

Deceptistar - Sanctuary wrote: »

well the anni packs are going out and the current packs arent as appealing as when the anni packs came out first time sooo....

I give it a month till ani packs return, if that

Xeian - Dreamweaver

remorhaz wrote: »

ya because no other company in the world has sales for the holidays, just PWI because they be greedy! c wut i did thur?

this "black friday" sale is going untill january, normal black friday sales are 1 day. there WILL be another sale at christmas, I can bank on it, and this one will still be going.


note to GM: quote isn't workign right, merge if you must

Namidatears - Harshlands

Sidious - Harshlands wrote: »

I honestly would love to meet the veno that bought 100m coins worth of feathers/sources for their pets

You right.
Im stuck in 5600 nix feathers months ago...some buy with cash...some with in game coins...but I cant buy more with cash....at this moment,my real economy sucks,really hard times,loockin for a job.....and with the gold at this prices...is impossible at least for me,that I cant play all day like other peeps.
Waiting for expansion to make a new character that dont need to be mega rich to have the full power...only the right skills and good gear...no damn petb:cry
Cya in game peeps!!!
PD:hey..Im no QQ...Im NamidaTears XD

Xeian - Dreamweaver

Namidatears - Harshlands wrote: »

You right.
Im stuck in 5600 nix feathers months ago...some buy with cash...some with in game coins...but I cant buy more with cash....at this moment,my real economy sucks,really hard times,loockin for a job.....and with the gold at this prices...is impossible at least for me,that I cant play all day like other peeps.
Waiting for expansion to make a new character that dont need to be mega rich to have the full power...only the right skills and good gear...no damn petb:cry
Cya in game peeps!!!
PD:hey..Im no QQ...Im NamidaTears XD

try the lvl 90 mobs near swiftwind, they drop well (if you're on pvp, you might have some trouble, but that spot isn't camped on DW)

Dosinn - Dreamweaver

Personally, Ive been yearning for the days when gold charms were only 400-500k, and when the rough cost for a cash shop item was however many gold it was worth X 100-150k. Even if they do get rid of the anni packs, it will probably take 4-6 months for gold prices to come down to a reasonable lvl again. That was the big thing that attracted me to PW, that i didnt have to spend boatloads of money, real or ingame, to enjoy myself. The only class that can possibly afford to grind enough ingame money to get gold nowadays are the venos, and even they have a real hard time of it, unless they spam TT runs nonstop. Personally, I hope that PW does away with ALL types of packs, save the occasional charm pack, for at least 6-7 months. Ive reached the point ingame where i cant do much of anything because i dont have charms/guardian scrolls. Im usually scrounging at the least second to find enough coin to get a bronze hp charm for TW each week. PW can continue aero/mount/fashion sales all it wants, just leave off the packs till next summer or so. Plz, plz, PLZ, leave off the bloody packs till next summer.

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Deceptistar - Sanctuary wrote: »

well the anni packs are going out and the current packs arent as appealing as when the anni packs came out first time sooo....

The palace pack is worse than the anniversary pack. 22% chance of a gold charm (4 gold) adds 0.88 gold to its average value. 40% chance of a silver charm (2.5 gold) adds 1 gold to its average value. So even before accounting for the 3-star and incomparable shard rewards, you're at nearly 2 gold in value for 1 gold spent. As a consequence, it has completely cratered the market value of gold and silver charms (indirectly affecting plat charm prices as well).

But the palace pack is going away the same time the anniversary packs are, so it won't affect gold prices in a couple days. I haven't done price breakdowns for the other packs. I'm frankly sick of them at this point. I just want some price stability, instead of things doubling or halving in cost/value every couple weeks.

Saitada - Sanctuary

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

The palace pack is worse than the anniversary pack. 22% chance of a gold charm (4 gold) adds 0.88 gold to its average value. 40% chance of a silver charm (2.5 gold) adds 1 gold to its average value. So even before accounting for the 3-star and incomparable shard rewards, you're at nearly 2 gold in value for 1 gold spent. As a consequence, it has completely cratered the market value of gold and silver charms (indirectly affecting plat charm prices as well).

But the palace pack is going away the same time the anniversary packs are, so it won't affect gold prices in a couple days. I haven't done price breakdowns for the other packs. I'm frankly sick of them at this point. I just want some price stability, instead of things doubling or halving in cost/value every couple weeks.

Interesting math 22% chance to get a gold charm so therefore it's value is higher than it's cost, but if my math is right that would mean the average chance to get a gold charm from the packs is to spend 5 gold on 5 packs at which point you have an almost even likely hood of getting a charm as not.

I can buy 20 of them, open all 20 and get no charms of any kind. Or I can buy 20 of them, open all 20 and get 20 gold charms. The likely hood of getting nothing of value to me is greater than the likelyhodd of getting something worth anything to me.

To get a silver charm according to it's chance is to spend at least 2 gold for the 'odds' to be in your favor at getting a silver charm.

In other words... your math is a failure. Remember that a CHANCE is just that. You 'might' get one each time you open one but you have a better CHANCE at not getting it than you do at getting it. Each time.

~Saitada

Unknown

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Solandri - Heavens Tear

Saitada - Sanctuary wrote: »

In other words... your math is a failure. Remember that a CHANCE is just that. You 'might' get one each time you open one but you have a better CHANCE at not getting it than you do at getting it. Each time.

LOL. No my math is not a failure. You're just applying it to something I wasn't talking about. I'm referring to average value of the packs. i.e. The thousands that are being bought by all players across all servers. Properly calculating average valuation is simply multiplying the percentage of each prize by the value of the prize, and adding them all up. When you do that, you find that the value of the palace pack is greater than any of the other packs by a significant margin; and more than likely it is this pack which is the leading factor in the current price of gold.

What you're referring to is odds of being a "winner" if you buy the pack. i.e. If I bought X number of palace packs, what are my chances of getting more in prizes than I spent? I did that calculation for anniversary packs here:
http://pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?p=5565332#post5565332

but since the palace packs are going away in 24 hours, I'm not gonna bother doing it for them.

Saitada - Sanctuary

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

LOL. No my math is not a failure. You're just applying it to something I wasn't talking about. I'm referring to average value of the packs. i.e. The thousands that are being bought by all players across all servers. Properly calculating average valuation is simply multiplying the percentage of each prize by the value of the prize, and adding them all up. When you do that, you find that the value of the palace pack is greater than any of the other packs by a significant margin; and more than likely it is this pack which is the leading factor in the current price of gold.

What you're referring to is odds of being a "winner" if you buy the pack. i.e. If I bought X number of palace packs, what are my chances of getting more in prizes than I spent? I did that calculation for anniversary packs here:
http://pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?p=5565332#post5565332

but since the palace packs are going away in 24 hours, I'm not gonna bother doing it for them.

It is the odds of being a winner that create the actual value. The value is not as high as you would suggest unless the odds for winning were higher by a significant margin. So it doesn't matter how you slice it or try to manipulate the data to suit your ends.

The fact is the average chance of getting a gold charm is 1 in 5. A gold charm costs 4 gold. the average cost to get a gold charm through those packs is 5 gold.

The average chance of getting a silver charm is 1 in about 2.4 (i.e 3) the cost of silver charms is 2.5 gold so your more likely to come close to breaking even with silver charms than with gold charms.

So your math is wrong. pure and simple. Because for every pack you open, you have the exact same chance as you did for the previous one. Your chance% doesn't go up with each one you open. You might easily buy 5 gold, get 5 packs and end up with a mess of garbage.

On the same token you might get very lucky and buy 5 gold, get 5 packs and end up with 5 good items, but your chances of that are significantly lower than your chances to get 5 crappy items.

Example: I bought about 100 ANI packs. My chances should have been fair over volume to acquire something decent. I got tokens. A friend of mine bought 15 ANI packs and came out with a semi decent item (forgot what it was offhand).

So no they are not tanking the charm business unless people that would normally buy charms with their gold are buying the packs thinking like you do that their chances at getting a gold charm is better than outright buying it.

The math is not in your favor. Sorry.

~Saitada

Solandri - Heavens Tear

boo4u wrote: »

look just freakin pot!..i went through 87 with one mp charm ..went through 88 with just mp pots and apoth..89 i bought a plat for double exp..90 i stil lgot charm at 500k left..and no worries at allllll!

Currently, pots are still pretty expensive. Your cheapest source of mana are the yuanxiao, especially the herb yuanxiao (level 75+). 5k mana for about 1k coin if you make it with tokens bought at market price. That's about 0.2 coin per mana.

Level 70 mana pots are 1600 mana for 1470 if you buy the pots, or 0.919 coin per mana. If you use pots you get as drops (foregoing the 735 coin you could get for selling them), they cost 0.459 coin per mana. Still considerably more expensive than herb yuanxiao. (i.e. you'd be better off selling the pots you get to an NPC, and using that coin to buy tokens to make herb yuanxiao.)

Prior to the palace packs, gold mp charms were about 2 mil if you bought them with gold, about 1.5 mil in the aftermarket. Those gave you 900k mp, for a cost of 1.67-2.22 coin per mana.

With the palace packs, I'm commonly seeing silver mp charms for about 500-700k. Those give 525k mana, for a cost of 0.952-1.33 coin per mana. Still more expensive than pots, but considerably cheaper than the cost of charms before palace packs.

Expect the price of herb yuanxiao to go up once anniv. packs go away. The only question is by how much. To match the 0.459 coin per mana cost of level 70 pots, herb yuanxio would have to increase to 2.3k, which corresponds to a luck token cost of 38.5k. I doubt it will go that high, so herb yuanxiao will still be your cheapest source of mana (provided you're level 75+ and have a mana pool > 5k).

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Saitada - Sanctuary wrote: »

It is the odds of being a winner that create the actual value. The value is not as high as you would suggest unless the odds for winning were higher by a significant margin. So it doesn't matter how you slice it or try to manipulate the data to suit your ends.

The fact is the average chance of getting a gold charm is 1 in 5. A gold charm costs 4 gold. the average cost to get a gold charm through those packs is 5 gold.

The average chance of getting a silver charm is 1 in about 2.4 (i.e 3) the cost of silver charms is 2.5 gold so your more likely to come close to breaking even with silver charms than with gold charms.

So your math is wrong. pure and simple. Because for every pack you open, you have the exact same chance as you did for the previous one. Your chance% doesn't go up with each one you open. You might easily buy 5 gold, get 5 packs and end up with a mess of garbage.

No, the math is right. This is how you calculate the average odds.

e.g. If you opened 1000 palace packs, on average you would get:

22% * 1000 = 220 gold charms
40% * 1000 = 400 silver charms

220 gold charms @ 4 gold = 880 gold
400 silver charms @ 2.5 gold = 1000 gold

So front those prizes alone, for an cost of 1000 gold (to buy the packs), you've obtained 1880 gold in value, even before you add in what you get from the remaining 380 packs.

You calculate the odds of number of feathers/sof from the battle pet packs the exact same way.

26% chance of 10 feathers/sof
23% chance of 20 feathers/sof
21% chance of 30 feathers/sof
17% chance of 40 feathers/sof
13% chance of 50 feathers/sof

.26*10 + .23*20 + .21*30 + .17*40 + .13*50 = 26.8 average per pack opened.

Yes if you have a small sample (i.e. what you're talking about - a single individual opening a few packs), your results can easily deviate from the expected average percentage. But as you increase the sample to thousands or tens of thousands of packs (what I'm talking about), the results will not deviate from the expected percentages by any significant amount. (I won't get into the math for the expected deviation, but you can read up on it here.) So for the server as a whole, the value of the packs can safely be measured by the average chance to get each prize.

Edit: I think you're getting confused looking at only the unlucky people who open packs. Yes some people will get unlucky and won't get 10 gold of value from 10 gold spent on palace packs. But they are balanced out by people who get lucky, and end up getting 30+ gold of value from 10 gold spent on the palace packs. On average, the value you get from the palace pack is probably around 2+ gold per 1 gold spent.

Whiite - Dreamweaver

Charms, legendary pets, things from the Cash Shop is a luxury, not a need. You don't need those things to play this game.

I myself have bought nothing from the Cash Shop and leveled easily through my levels.

No Charms? Use pots or apoth. Nobody is forcing you to do TT, or TW or RB or anything that needs charms.

No Legendary pets? Use normal pets, duh?

Be satisfied that you are able to legally buy Gold using in-game currency. No other MMORPG I've heard or played lets you do that.

Saitada - Sanctuary

Solandri - Heavens Tear wrote: »

No, the math is right. This is how you calculate the average odds.

e.g. If you opened 1000 palace packs, on average you would get:

22% * 1000 = 220 gold charms
40% * 1000 = 400 silver charms

220 gold charms @ 4 gold = 880 gold
400 silver charms @ 2.5 gold = 1000 gold

So front those prizes alone, for an cost of 1000 gold (to buy the packs), you've obtained 1880 gold in value, even before you add in what you get from the remaining 380 packs.

You calculate the odds of number of feathers/sof from the battle pet packs the exact same way.

26% chance of 10 feathers/sof
23% chance of 20 feathers/sof
21% chance of 30 feathers/sof
17% chance of 40 feathers/sof
13% chance of 50 feathers/sof

.26*10 + .23*20 + .21*30 + .17*40 + .13*50 = 26.8 average per pack opened.

Yes if you have a small sample (i.e. what you're talking about - a single individual opening a few packs), your results can easily deviate from the expected average percentage. But as you increase the sample to thousands or tens of thousands of packs (what I'm talking about), the results will not deviate from the expected percentages by any significant amount. (I won't get into the math for the expected deviation, but you can read up on it here.) So for the server as a whole, the value of the packs can safely be measured by the average chance to get each prize.

Again your math fails. You are NOT going to get that many charms. The percentage chance is rolled each time you open the pack. It isn't cumulative. Furthermore you can't open 1000 packs and expect to get 620 charms. It just doesn't work that way. You are more likely to get 1000 pieces of worthless garbage than you are to get that many charms. It doesn't matter how large your pool is, the chances still remain the same each time you open a pack.

If you have a pool of 10,000 or 100,000 you still have the same chance each time you open a pack. If your luck sucks you could open 100,000 packs and get exactly squat.

Your not likely to ever have that bad a run of luck, but it is more likely than you opening 100,000 packs and getting 100,000 charms.

~Saitada

Xeian - Dreamweaver

Whiite - Dreamweaver wrote: »

No Charms? Use pots or apoth. Nobody is forcing you to do TT, or TW or RB or anything that needs charms.

I don't use charms on these and do just fine

Skimi - Dreamweaver

im that crazy veno who will spend 100m for herc if will need lol

like spent 15m on 30 packs and got only 630 sof from them...what a waste of money XD

im already used to high gold prices and i doubt they will ever drop and now with palace packs charms are easier to get

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Saitada - Sanctuary wrote: »

Again your math fails. You are NOT going to get that many charms. The percentage chance is rolled each time you open the pack. It isn't cumulative. Furthermore you can't open 1000 packs and expect to get 620 charms. It just doesn't work that way. You are more likely to get 1000 pieces of worthless garbage than you are to get that many charms. It doesn't matter how large your pool is, the chances still remain the same each time you open a pack.

Assuming the pwdatabase entry is correct, that is exactly how many charms you can expect to get if you open 1000 packs.
http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/7074

Of course you're highly unlikely to get exactly 620 charms. But the more packs you consider, the tighter the distributions becomes, and the closer the actual number gets to 62% charms.

If you have a pool of 10,000 or 100,000 you still have the same chance each time you open a pack. If your luck sucks you could open 100,000 packs and get exactly squat.

Again, I think you're getting confused by thinking of only the unlucky people. On average, each unlucky person is balanced out by a lucky person, and the average is the expected 62% charms.

Edit: Or maybe you're thinking of the gambler's fallacy - the belief that if you got unlucky opening 10 packs, that you're "due" to get lucky on the next 10? When in fact your odds are exactly the same on the next 10 packs. That's not a factor here. The average converges towards 62% simply due to sheer numbers in an increasing sample size. The tendency of the 10 "unlucky" packs to drag down the average is completely overwhelmed by the average value of the remaining 99990 packs, resulting in an average very close to 62%.

Knownase - Heavens Tear

As I've said before, anni packs leaving the game will be just as bad due to tokens. You have a few CS items you can get with tokens. Depending on the effect, gold will be unstable. You will see, for example, 30K for tokens and with that, tokens will be the determinate for alot of things.b:cry

Solandri - Heavens Tear

Ok, I hadn't planned on doing this, but since Saitada is arguing the point so strongly, here are the binomial distribution for chance to get charms from the palace pack. First, if you only open 10 packs:

0 charms = 0.00628%
1 charm = 0.1024%
2 charms = 0.7521%
3 charms = 3.272%
4 charms = 9.343%
5 charms = 18.293%
6 charms = 24.872%
7 charms = 23.189%
8 charms = 14.188%
9 charms = 5.144%
10 charms = 0.8393%

100 packs:

0-40 charms = 0.000687%
41-50 charms = 0.9606%
51-60 charms = 36.629%
61-62 charms = 16.184%
63-64 charms = 15.676%
65-70 charms = 26.735%
71-80 charms = 3.813%
80-100 charms = 0.0033%

If you open 1000 packs:

0-400 charms = 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000562%
401-500 charms = 0.000000000000844%
501-600 charms = 10.224%
600-620 charms = 40.972%
621-640 charms = 39.756%
641-700 charms = 9.0492%
701-1000 charms = 0.00000494%

And if you open 10,000 packs:

0-5000 charms = effectively 0%
5001-6000 charms = 0.00209%
6001-6200 charms = 50.376%
6201-6400 charms = 49.620%
6401-10000 charms = 0.0017%

As you can see, the larger your sample size, the more and more the odds converge on 62%. In fact by the time you consider 10,000 packs, there's a 97.99% chance the number of charms received will fall between 6100-6300, which is a +/- 1% deviation from 62%. Compare that to the 10 pack sample, where there's a 93.9% chance the number of charms received will fall between 2-8, which is a (roughly) +/- 30% deviation.

Karst - Dreamweaver

Saitada - Sanctuary wrote: »

Again your math fails.

I don't think you know a lot about statistical mathematics. You should try reading this.

Qwin - Sanctuary

Unfortunately it will be to late now but the Anniversary packs were probably the best thing for making copious amounts of cash. I made over 100 million just by buying tokens, converting them to Oracles, then selling each for a small profit.

I have no doubt there will be bigger and better sales on the horizon that will make the price of gold seam impossibly high but if you stop take a deep breath of air get out a piece of paper and a calculator you can probably figure out a way to make cash while you sleep.

(For tips on exactly what works best just ask my brother Warrenwolfy. It worked great for me b:chuckle)

Saitada - Sanctuary

Karst - Dreamweaver wrote: »

I don't think you know a lot about statistical mathematics. You should try reading this.

Your right I don't. When it comes to math I have always avoided it when I can.

Solandri.. After looking over what you posted, I concede your point. The size of the sample would indeed have an effect according to those numbers.

Good to know..... *goes and charges 30,000 zen*

~Saitada