Warsong: Is Random EoO Distribution Truly Fair?

chchchchia

Not this topic again... seriously, just agree to disagree on this. There is no reason why you have to agree at all. Just make your own squads/go with squads that run it the way you want to.

I run with squads that split the EoO because half of the time what I need is the EoO, and I'd rather not have to run 10 runs just to get one. But that doesn't mean people that random it are wrong.... there is no right or wrong here; it is all just a matter of preference.

chaton wrote: »

i am more interested in the mold split, i was told people from HT randomed all the molds, and i cant see how that is fair to someone needing specific molds

I've never been on a run that did that. Runs were always set on free and at the start you let the group know what molds you needed so that there was no confusion.

pwizz23

opkossy wrote: »

Said it in another thread and I'll paraphrase for here.
Those doing only a few runs benefit more from random if they're lucky. Those doing many runs and that want a guarantee benefit from the EoO being split/buying from squad. Outside of that, it's purely a personal preference.

I tend to do a lot of ws. And have crappy luck on drops. So overall, split is better for me.

chaton wrote: »

i am more interested in the mold split, i was told people from HT randomed all the molds, and i cant see how that is fair to someone needing specific molds

torquoisegamer wrote: »

Random the molds? HT people have never done that. HT ran WS on free, from start to end.

Yep, completely on free. Some squad leads drop coin after every mold, others drop total coin at the end. If you need a mold, there's usually a discussion at the beginning or during defend on who needs what so that anything can be worked out and pre-claimed if it drops. Even then, with some of the people I run with, they double check before picking up any armor mold to make sure some one doesn't need it.

jadasia

torquoisegamer wrote: »

I would argue that random Essence of Offense (EoO) distribution is not fair. Here's my case as for why:

Suppose that 6 people do 6 full warsongs. According to fairness, each person would walk away with a single EoO. However, this is extremely unlike according to random distribution.

The first run, no one's gotten an EoO yet, so the odds that a new person will get an EoO is 6 new people out of 6 total people (6/6).
The second run, only one person's gotten an EoO so far, so the odds that a new person will get an EoO is 5 EoO-less people out of 6 total people.
This pattern continues, siphoning down the odds until you get the following:

6/6 x 5/6 x 4/6 x 3/6 x 2/6 x 1/6

This partially simplifies to:

1/1 x 5/3 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/3 x 1/6

which equals

5/9 x 1/36

which finally simplifies to 5/324, which is the chance that each person will get one EoO in six runs. This is approximately equal to a 1.54% chance.


What are the odds that no person will get more than 2 EoOs?

Calculating these odds is simple. All you have to do is calculate the odds that any one person will get half the EoOs, and subtract from full odds. The odds that a specific individual will get half or more of the EoOs from six runs is:

1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/216

The odds that any individual will get half the EoOs, however, is quite different, due to the fact that each individual person has these odds of getting half the EoOs:

1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 (add the odds for each individual) = 6/216 = 1/36

This is approximately equal to a 2.78% chance that any person will get half the EoOs.
Which means that there's a 97.22% chance that no one gets more than 2 EoOs.


What about the odds that no more than one person will get 2 EoOs?

To find this, calculate what the odds are that at least 5 people get EoOs, and subtract from one.

6/6 * 6/6 * 5/6 * 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 = 5/3 * 1/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 5/9 * 1/6 = 5/54

This is approximately equal to a 9.26% chance that 5 people get at least one EoO.
Which means that there's a 90.74% chance that no more than one person gets 2 EoOs.


So in short, there's a less than 2% chance that everyone gets 2 EoOs, the odds that anyone gets half the EoOs is almost twice that, and there's only a 10+1/4% chance that 5 people get at least one EoO, which is only about 4 times as likely that any person will get half the EoOs.


In a split squad, there is a 100% chance that each person will get the worth of an EoO should there be no scammers over 6 runs. And when you split the EoO, it is allowed to buy the EoO at the same price that you would pay for the split. Meaning that split is much more equal than random. And scammers can scam a random squad just as easily as a split squad, actually. Here's why:

By the time the lead reinvites for the EoO distribution, the drops are no longer sparkly. Which means that anyone who's in the instance could pick up the EoO. This means that the scammer could, while lead is reinviting on random, pick up the EoO without being in squad and have the EoO. So no, it's not easier to scam on split.

Good god what's stopping you from starting your own damned WS parties set on free? Don't participate in parties set to random.

And the old lost city way is that one person calls the EoO at the beginning of the run and the rest let them have it. No buying from the freaking party or coin drop or garbage like that.

reliea

Oooh so this is the problem. I was curious what the fuss was about, but trying to decipher wc drama makes my eyes sore.
If I go farm WS with my friends/faction/people from ye olde server, I know what'll happen.
If I go farm WS with randoms/people from ye olde pvp server, I expect nothing.

I can understand why more PvP server people might be inclined to do multiple runs of things, while PvE server people have an easier time just being 1 and done. I would just get tired of horrible luck syndrome never getting a "valuable" drop, thus no coin. The PvE squad equally increases their wealth, while the PvP squad tends towards lopsidedness. I'm biased, definitely, because I dislike counting on luck for anything.