Warsong: Is Random EoO Distribution Truly Fair?
torquoisegamer
Posts: 96 Arc User
I would argue that random Essence of Offense (EoO) distribution is not fair. Here's my case as for why:
Suppose that 6 people do 6 full warsongs. According to fairness, each person would walk away with a single EoO. However, this is extremely unlike according to random distribution.
The first run, no one's gotten an EoO yet, so the odds that a new person will get an EoO is 6 new people out of 6 total people (6/6).
The second run, only one person's gotten an EoO so far, so the odds that a new person will get an EoO is 5 EoO-less people out of 6 total people.
This pattern continues, siphoning down the odds until you get the following:
6/6 x 5/6 x 4/6 x 3/6 x 2/6 x 1/6
This partially simplifies to:
1/1 x 5/3 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/3 x 1/6
which equals
5/9 x 1/36
which finally simplifies to 5/324, which is the chance that each person will get one EoO in six runs. This is approximately equal to a 1.54% chance.
What are the odds that no person will get more than 2 EoOs?
Calculating these odds is simple. All you have to do is calculate the odds that any one person will get half the EoOs, and subtract from full odds. The odds that a specific individual will get half or more of the EoOs from six runs is:
1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/216
The odds that any individual will get half the EoOs, however, is quite different, due to the fact that each individual person has these odds of getting half the EoOs:
1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 (add the odds for each individual) = 6/216 = 1/36
This is approximately equal to a 2.78% chance that any person will get half the EoOs.
Which means that there's a 97.22% chance that no one gets more than 2 EoOs.
What about the odds that no more than one person will get 2 EoOs?
To find this, calculate what the odds are that at least 5 people get EoOs, and subtract from one.
6/6 * 6/6 * 5/6 * 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 = 5/3 * 1/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 5/9 * 1/6 = 5/54
This is approximately equal to a 9.26% chance that 5 people get at least one EoO.
Which means that there's a 90.74% chance that no more than one person gets 2 EoOs.
So in short, there's a less than 2% chance that everyone gets 2 EoOs, the odds that anyone gets half the EoOs is almost twice that, and there's only a 10+1/4% chance that 5 people get at least one EoO, which is only about 4 times as likely that any person will get half the EoOs.
In a split squad, there is a 100% chance that each person will get the worth of an EoO should there be no scammers over 6 runs. And when you split the EoO, it is allowed to buy the EoO at the same price that you would pay for the split. Meaning that split is much more equal than random. And scammers can scam a random squad just as easily as a split squad, actually. Here's why:
By the time the lead reinvites for the EoO distribution, the drops are no longer sparkly. Which means that anyone who's in the instance could pick up the EoO. This means that the scammer could, while lead is reinviting on random, pick up the EoO without being in squad and have the EoO. So no, it's not easier to scam on split.
Suppose that 6 people do 6 full warsongs. According to fairness, each person would walk away with a single EoO. However, this is extremely unlike according to random distribution.
The first run, no one's gotten an EoO yet, so the odds that a new person will get an EoO is 6 new people out of 6 total people (6/6).
The second run, only one person's gotten an EoO so far, so the odds that a new person will get an EoO is 5 EoO-less people out of 6 total people.
This pattern continues, siphoning down the odds until you get the following:
6/6 x 5/6 x 4/6 x 3/6 x 2/6 x 1/6
This partially simplifies to:
1/1 x 5/3 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/3 x 1/6
which equals
5/9 x 1/36
which finally simplifies to 5/324, which is the chance that each person will get one EoO in six runs. This is approximately equal to a 1.54% chance.
What are the odds that no person will get more than 2 EoOs?
Calculating these odds is simple. All you have to do is calculate the odds that any one person will get half the EoOs, and subtract from full odds. The odds that a specific individual will get half or more of the EoOs from six runs is:
1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/216
The odds that any individual will get half the EoOs, however, is quite different, due to the fact that each individual person has these odds of getting half the EoOs:
1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 + 1/216 (add the odds for each individual) = 6/216 = 1/36
This is approximately equal to a 2.78% chance that any person will get half the EoOs.
Which means that there's a 97.22% chance that no one gets more than 2 EoOs.
What about the odds that no more than one person will get 2 EoOs?
To find this, calculate what the odds are that at least 5 people get EoOs, and subtract from one.
6/6 * 6/6 * 5/6 * 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 = 5/3 * 1/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 5/9 * 1/6 = 5/54
This is approximately equal to a 9.26% chance that 5 people get at least one EoO.
Which means that there's a 90.74% chance that no more than one person gets 2 EoOs.
So in short, there's a less than 2% chance that everyone gets 2 EoOs, the odds that anyone gets half the EoOs is almost twice that, and there's only a 10+1/4% chance that 5 people get at least one EoO, which is only about 4 times as likely that any person will get half the EoOs.
In a split squad, there is a 100% chance that each person will get the worth of an EoO should there be no scammers over 6 runs. And when you split the EoO, it is allowed to buy the EoO at the same price that you would pay for the split. Meaning that split is much more equal than random. And scammers can scam a random squad just as easily as a split squad, actually. Here's why:
By the time the lead reinvites for the EoO distribution, the drops are no longer sparkly. Which means that anyone who's in the instance could pick up the EoO. This means that the scammer could, while lead is reinviting on random, pick up the EoO without being in squad and have the EoO. So no, it's not easier to scam on split.
My mains:
TorquoiseBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII psychic
MidnighteBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII duskblade
TorquoiseBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII psychic
MidnighteBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII duskblade
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Comments
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Was this nessecary?
Just do it like you want to do (by beeing the leader) and no problem right?
Hardest part about this is getting 5 more people to do 6 warsong runs anyways so..
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You do realize that if you actually farm Warsong, you`ll average out close enough to 1 every 6 runs? It wont be exact, some get more, some less. What on other hand is guaranteed is how you wont buy a single EoO with the split of 6 Warsong runs as obviously catshops are into making a profit and not providing a free service.
It comes down to preference. Obviously I rather have all the profit go to squad and not split part of it to 2nd party but I dont really care if the EoO gets split. I farm Warsong for badges, dont really care if I got some nofactor amount of coins each run or a EoO here and there to put into bank to wait for R9ing my alt. This whole argument has been blown into ludicrous proportions, its not that big of a deal. Decide prior to run what you do with EoO and if you cant agree with the method, leave, no harm done. 0 -
You buy it from the squad, not a catshop. So, yea you generally should get enough money to buy one....why would you buy it at the sell price of the merchants? That's for people who don't want to run at all and are willing to pay to bypass running warsongs. Be it because they just don't feel like it that day for whatever reason, are fatigued from running it, or don't like running it period. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯0
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I wonder more about the odds of anyone actually caring enough.
If you decide to do 6 runs with the same people, then just give 1 to each.
If you do 1 run with whoever, do it random or sell the EoO.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ there's never been a problem with that on dreamweaver ever so far and I don't see why it should be an issue now.
The only fitting image for this forum.0 -
I wonder more about the odds of anyone actually caring enough.
If you decide to do 6 runs with the same people, then just give 1 to each.
If you do 1 run with whoever, do it random or sell the EoO.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ there's never been a problem with that on dreamweaver ever so far and I don't see why it should be an issue now.
Because people want the server to run their way. It's a clash of wills. On one corner: we got the peace, love, and everyone gets a fair chance flower children of Archosaur. And the other corner: we got the cold, battle worn and coldly rational Heaven's Tear. I think we got the makings of a server, opposites attract, buddy copy movie going on here.
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You do realize that if you actually farm Warsong, you`ll average out close enough to 1 every 6 runs? It wont be exact, some get more, some less. What on other hand is guaranteed is how you wont buy a single EoO with the split of 6 Warsong runs as obviously catshops are into making a profit and not providing a free service.
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1. granted to distrubution odds arent great
2. ./stimulate brain/ how about instead of buying from catshop you buy from squad for catshop price =O, then you can buy an eoo with split of 6 runs...0 -
Its just about what people are used to.
If you are used to get a share of emblems, coins from molds, and coins from EoO, I can understand you would suddenly feel cheated if you are unlucky and end up getting nothing when you are used to get like a mil per run. If you are used to it being random, you wont think about it much, just thinking something a like "ah well, better luck next time".
Did we ever split emblems, warsong medals, and mold from Vile boss in BH metal/snake/warsong? No. Do you feel squad cheated you if you got none of the drops from the bh? No. Because that's just how you are used it to be and how its done.
Sure I am used to getting splits from a full warsong and I like it that way, but if I knew it would be a random drop run from beginning, I dont see the issues. Since there is difference with those 2 servers, just make it clear when worldchatting for people.0 -
You do realize that if you actually farm Warsong, you`ll average out close enough to 1 every 6 runs? It wont be exact, some get more, some less. What on other hand is guaranteed is how you wont buy a single EoO with the split of 6 Warsong runs as obviously catshops are into making a profit and not providing a free service.
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1. granted to distrubution odds arent great
2. ./stimulate brain/ how about instead of buying from catshop you buy from squad for catshop price =O, then you can buy an eoo with split of 6 runs...
Honestly, that still sucks to everybody who doesnt buy the EoO. I have actually bought every EoO in squad that has wanted to split it because I can make easy profit on them due prices catshops are paying for them. Last I saw EoOs are buying 1,65m. This is 275k split/person.
This split EoO for coins is actually beneficial to someone like me who can just buy them all w/o blinking, set up shop after week of farming and make a bank. If the catshop prices were actually fair and not attempting for 70%+ profit margin, it might be a decent way of doing things. As things are now though, imo fairer option is randoming the thing. 0 -
Except most of us (or at least me, and if most people were, you'd think that you'd see more people going into catshop mode for this) aren't willing to go into catshop mode to sell them. Therefore, for those of us who aren't willing to do so, your statement is irrelevent.My mains:
TorquoiseBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII psychic
MidnighteBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII duskblade0 -
This content has been removed.
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You do realize that if you actually farm Warsong, you`ll average out close enough to 1 every 6 runs? It wont be exact, some get more, some less. What on other hand is guaranteed is how you wont buy a single EoO with the split of 6 Warsong runs as obviously catshops are into making a profit and not providing a free service.
.
1. granted to distrubution odds arent great
2. ./stimulate brain/ how about instead of buying from catshop you buy from squad for catshop price =O, then you can buy an eoo with split of 6 runs...
Honestly, that still sucks to everybody who doesnt buy the EoO. I have actually bought every EoO in squad that has wanted to split it because I can make easy profit on them due prices catshops are paying for them. Last I saw EoOs are buying 1,65m. This is 275k split/person.
This split EoO for coins is actually beneficial to someone like me who can just buy them all w/o blinking, set up shop after week of farming and make a bank. If the catshop prices were actually fair and not attempting for 70%+ profit margin, it might be a decent way of doing things. As things are now though, imo fairer option is randoming the thing.
And if that's what someone wants them for, who cares? If more than one wants them it the biggest who needs it most gets it or the squad works out some other way to decide who. If a person isn't willing to buy and merchant themselves, and just wants their 1/6th cut so they can move to the next run and buy what they need. Then that's on that person alone, and is something that they are voluntarily giving up. These kinds of transactions happen all the time in the real world, it's entirety of why pawn shops exist. As long as all parties agree to things beforehand, it's still fair. There isn't really a wrong way, and it all comes down to preference.0 -
ovenusarmanio wrote: »
Because people want the server to run their way. It's a clash of wills. On one corner: we got the peace, love, and everyone gets a fair chance flower children of Archosaur. And the other corner: we got the cold, battle worn and coldly rational Heaven's Tear. I think we got the makings of a server, opposites attract, buddy copy movie going on here.
May peace and love from the moon above flow through your heart on the wings of a dove.
DeffyNature0 -
Is there ever a reason to not buy the EoO off your squad? Are there unspoken rules that keep one person from buying it and turning around to sell it in your catshop so you get a little quick extra profit than your squad? Maybe this is good for me ._.Post edited by cynderangel on102/101/102 cleric0
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By the way, your math is completely broken at some parts. 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/216 is the chance that one guy (Peter) get 3 eoo from 3 run. 1/216*6 is the chance that someone (Peter or Helga or...) get 3 eoo from 3 run.
Try with binomial distribution instead of that. (6!/3!*3!)*(5/6)^3*(1/6)^3=0,05 ==> 5 % chance that one guy (Peter) get exactly 3 eoo from 6 runs. So 30 % chance that someone (Peter or Helga or...) get exactly 3 eoo from 6 runs. (About 5 % for 4, 0,4% for 5, 0,01 % for 6). So the chance that no one gets more then 2 eoo is about 65 %. (There is a tiny difference because the chance of 2 guys get 3-3 eoo and the others get nothing.)
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Im interested in this now.
From what i've read, and what people have told me, people FROM Heavens Tear will have squad leader go sell the EOO and then split the money, while Arch people will random it.
If im correct keep reading, If im incorrect, Venus please kill this post.
To start off with, im finding it incredibly funny that yall are willing to trust a constant 1-4mil(depending on time server etc) to one person, hope they find a good price and then split that money with yall instead of just taking it for themselves, but arent willing to do the same with 60-80k pages.
Why sell it and make sure noone gets it?
with the aformentioned HT process, noone in the squad gets the eoo but everyone gets a fraction of what its worth. You are looking at 6 runs to be able to buy 1 EoO, if not more runs.
With the aforementions Archo process, you have a 1 in 6 chance(if that, some people dont want the eoo and will leave squad before its randomed) to get the EoO.
I would rather that 16.6% chance and being able to get my gear sooner rather then having to run 6 or more times to get 1 EoO0 -
I have a question about this spliting EOO.
On former arch server EOO price was between 2.5mil-3mil. From what I seen in wc (it may have been trolls) on HT server the EOO price was between 3-5 mil.
Lets say the EOO price on Etherblade now is 3-5 mil. Didnt check to see what the actual price is. But lets say its 3-5 mil. But catshops wont buy it for 5mil. They will buy it for 4mil to sell it for 5 or for 3 to sell it for 4.
HT players are saying that the leader takes the EOO and goes outside instance to search the catshop who buys it for the highest price while the others wait.
So tell me who stops the leader to find a catshop that buys EOO for 4 milions , sell it but instead to tell squad that the highest price he could find was 3 milions? So he drops 3 milions,picks them back , everyone gets 500k , everyone except him cause now he got 500K+1MIL.
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bloodedone87 wrote: »I have a question about this spliting EOO.
On former arch server EOO price was between 2.5mil-3mil. From what I seen in wc (it may have been trolls) on HT server the EOO price was between 3-5 mil.
Lets say the EOO price on Etherblade now is 3-5 mil. Didnt check to see what the actual price is. But lets say its 3-5 mil. But catshops wont buy it for 5mil. They will buy it for 4mil to sell it for 5 or for 3 to sell it for 4.
HT players are saying that the leader takes the EOO and goes outside instance to search the catshop who buys it for the highest price while the others wait.
So tell me who stops the leader to find a catshop that buys EOO for 4 milions , sell it but instead to tell squad that the highest price he could find was 3 milions? So he drops 3 milions,picks them back , everyone gets 500k , everyone except him cause now he got 500K+1MIL.
The same way that didn't happen in nirvana, more than one person looks.0 -
Anyway I dont care about others . If I make squad EOO goes random . I dont care if I get HT players in squad . Its random EOO. If they dont like it they are free not to join. I will look for other people. And If i may join squads with split EOO I will tell them from start I dont want any split of EOO. They can split it between themselves. I will do the run just for badges and emblems and after last boss i will say '' ty everyone'' and leave.0
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By the way, your math is completely broken at some parts. 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/216 is the chance that one guy (Peter) get 3 eoo from 3 run. 1/216*6 is the chance that someone (Peter or Helga or...) get 3 eoo from 3 run.
So you claim that the odds that one person gets 3 eoos from 3 runs is higher than that any of six people get 3 eoos from 3 runs? This makes no sense. Check the logic of your statement before posting. If the basic logic doesn't make sense, recheck your math.
Sorry for the double post, but I don't know how to do a multi-quote on this site.oreowarrior wrote: »Im interested in this now.
From what i've read, and what people have told me, people FROM Heavens Tear will have squad leader go sell the EOO and then split the money, while Arch people will random it.
If im correct keep reading, If im incorrect, Venus please kill this post.
To start off with, im finding it incredibly funny that yall are willing to trust a constant 1-4mil(depending on time server etc) to one person, hope they find a good price and then split that money with yall instead of just taking it for themselves, but arent willing to do the same with 60-80k pages.
Why sell it and make sure noone gets it?
with the aformentioned HT process, noone in the squad gets the eoo but everyone gets a fraction of what its worth. You are looking at 6 runs to be able to buy 1 EoO, if not more runs.
With the aforementions Archo process, you have a 1 in 6 chance(if that, some people dont want the eoo and will leave squad before its randomed) to get the EoO.
I would rather that 16.6% chance and being able to get my gear sooner rather then having to run 6 or more times to get 1 EoO
Not entirely correct. Anyone in squad (unless multiple people want the EoO, which I've NEVER seen happens - I have 296 badges) is completely free to buy the EoO from the squad at the same price as you would sell it to a catshop.
And yes, it takes exactly 6 squads to be able to buy an EoO. And it takes 10 to get the badges to make your weapon.
My mains:
TorquoiseBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII psychic
MidnighteBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII duskblade0 -
torquoisegamer wrote: »Sorry for the double post, but I don't know how to do a multi-quote on this site.
Fixed it for you. BTW, you can just hit the quote button on each thing you want to quote and it will add the quote to your text box. You can check here for some tips. http://perfectworld.vanillaforums.com/discussion/8368/new-forum-survival-tips/p10 -
torquoisegamer wrote: »By the way, your math is completely broken at some parts. 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/216 is the chance that one guy (Peter) get 3 eoo from 3 run. 1/216*6 is the chance that someone (Peter or Helga or...) get 3 eoo from 3 run.
So you claim that the odds that one person gets 3 eoos from 3 runs is higher than that any of six people get 3 eoos from 3 runs? This makes no sense. Check the logic of your statement before posting. If the basic logic doesn't make sense, recheck your math.
(1/216)*6=6/216 Now you happy? True, I forgot to put that round bracket but it was pretty obvious anyway. Especially because those odds are from your post (1/216 - 6/216). I didn't use them in my math at all I just explained what is the real meaning of them.0 -
Probably if your toon is lucky you want the random, if you are like me and the last 20+ runs have gotten 0 eoo then you probably want split. If you want to run it a certain way, make your own squad and set the rules. There is no one way for the whole server.0
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6 people fight. So long as everyone's contributed to the effort of completing the instance successfully (IE no slacking afk at the pavs, and contributing either debuffs or spike dmg at the bosses) then a 1/6th chance at the EOO and the medals is fair. If you want certainty, get with a group of friends, agree to do 6 runs and get one EOO each. You'll still have to split any medals that may drop by lotto that way.... forget your fears. And want no more...
Dawnglory player:
Ulsyr - Khelvan - Evryn - Gromth
And StoneSnake - CatSnakeshop for everyone's Common Stones and more!0 -
Said it in another thread and I'll paraphrase for here.
Those doing only a few runs benefit more from random if they're lucky. Those doing many runs and that want a guarantee benefit from the EoO being split/buying from squad. Outside of that, it's purely a personal preference.(Insert fancy image here)
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Actually, selling it to split is worse than randoming.
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If you are forced to sell something instantly you'll lose money for sure. The price falls drastically.
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That happened alot back in nirvana times. At least in the old Lothranis server.
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Randoming is the best way since you can't keep the same squad for 6 runs.
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Both ways are fine, just be clear about it. and if you join a squad and are unsure, ask about it. I've had a lot of people give me lists of names who "scammed" EOOs from warsong, when really I think it was a difference in how the servers run things. People need to be super clear about who is getting what before the run starts otherwise people can spread bad news about the squad lead, and not always necessarily deserved.
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Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!0 -
I'd much rather be guaranteed a split than hope for the RNG to bless me on a series of runs. For most people things work out in the long run, but it's entirely too common to have streaks that heap bounty on some people and **** on others.filipenogueras wrote: »Actually, selling it to split is worse than randoming.
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If you are forced to sell something instantly you'll lose money for sure. The price falls drastically.
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That happened alot back in nirvana times. At least in the old Lothranis server.
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Randoming is the best way since you can't keep the same squad for 6 runs.
If you need the item, it's available to buy at a very good price. If no one needs it, someone can buy it and put in some extra effort and sell it later for an increased return. If everyone is poor, then it's sold to a shop and everyone goes home with something. 5 more runs like that and you can buy the item, the same as you would theoretically get from 6 random drop runs, except it's a 100% chance.0 -
i am more interested in the mold split, i was told people from HT randomed all the molds, and i cant see how that is fair to someone needing specific molds
and please no comments about this being not relevant, the way i am seeing the topic here is about how warsong drops are split, and molds are warsong drops0 -
Random the molds? HT people have never done that. HT ran WS on free, from start to end.My mains:
TorquoiseBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII psychic
MidnighteBlu 103 | 103 | 103 Twilight Sky VIII duskblade0 -
i am more interested in the mold split, i was told people from HT randomed all the molds, and i cant see how that is fair to someone needing specific molds
and please no comments about this being not relevant, the way i am seeing the topic here is about how warsong drops are split, and molds are warsong drops
Not the squads I ran in.0
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