You're lucky @elvalianon, be happy with those 2 R8 Radiants... Most don't even get those
I too got one Assault arms in about a dozen runs, feeling too bad to salvage it. I need only Raid armor, nothing else.
You should prolly remove the 'Non Exploit', we know everybody is now xP
Sorry to hear your loot drops have been even worse. It's absolutely saddening. The first time I completed FBI I only got a Elven ward ring and a black opal and I too hold onto to it for weeks to look at this miserable prize that I worked so hard for. The achievement of completing the dungeon for the first time back then was a reward on it's own, but that only works once.
Hahaha I'm still going to keep non exploit in our guild details, it's quite a big part of our guild and alliance community. Being non exploit or willing to compromise to it also requires a certain mindset, basically it's been keeping out the HAMSTER all this time. There are still a few bugs around in NW that I know of and plenty of people still happily making use of those. Knowing NW, they will release new half broken content sometime soon with new bugs. It's a necessary requirement both for now and a safety net for the future.
You're lucky @elvalianon, be happy with those 2 R8 Radiants... Most don't even get those
I too got one Assault arms in about a dozen runs, feeling too bad to salvage it. I need only Raid armor, nothing else.
You should prolly remove the 'Non Exploit', we know everybody is now xP
Sorry to hear your loot drops have been even worse. It's absolutely saddening. The first time I completed FBI I only got a Elven ward ring and a black opal and I too hold onto to it for weeks to look at this miserable prize that I worked so hard for. The achievement of completing the dungeon for the first time back then was a reward on it's own, but that only works once.
Hahaha I'm still going to keep non exploit in our guild details, it's quite a big part of our guild and alliance community. Being non exploit or willing to compromise to it also requires a certain mindset, basically it's been keeping out the HAMSTER all this time. There are still a few bugs around in NW that I know of and plenty of people still happily making use of those. Knowing NW, they will release new half broken content sometime soon with new bugs. It's a necessary requirement both for now and a safety net for the future.
Agreed... And, I was kidding by the way, with the key 'bug' around that everybody has been 'exploiting'. I'll try to look if strum ever 'exploited' in one of his streams.
WE'VE GOT THE RIGHT TO CHOOSE AND THERE AIN'T NO WAY WE'LL LOSE IT THIS IS OUR LIFE, THIS IS OUR SONG WE'LL FIGHT THE POWERS THAT BE JUST DON'T PICK OUR DESTINY 'CAUSE YOU DON'T KNOW US, YOU DON'T BELONG
OH WE'RE NOT GONNA TAKE IT NO, WE AIN'T GONNA TAKE IT OH WE'RE NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE
Hats off for you sir lol XD
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silverkeltMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 4,235Arc User
It's been getting harder every day since they announced to get a full group together to run dungeons and I'm on PS4. People are quitting because they don't want to sink any more time into this game with this impending doom coming.
It's been getting harder every day since they announced to get a full group together to run dungeons and I'm on PS4. People are quitting because they don't want to sink any more time into this game with this impending doom coming.
Summing up the cases were we get a price gives us a chance of 0.02 * 0.02 + 2 * 0.02 * 0.98 = 0.0396.
To make it easier: when opening n chests the chance for getting the grand price at least once is 1 - (1-p)^n.
This let's us also compute how many runs we need to get the grand price with a certain chance k.
We need to solve 1 - (1-p)^n > k for n, which gives us n > log(1-k) / log(1-p).
To get at least one grand price with a chance of 99.9% we need to open 342 chests (p = 0.02).
Currently we can open 342 chests in 171 runs. In the future we would have to do 342 runs.
I see this from a slightly different point of view. You reasoning is correct and let's assume for a moment that the drop chance is actually 2% (I think it's even lower)
As you wrote, we have 2 chests but the following conditions are met as well:
The phenomenon being modelled is a sequence of independent runs.
There are only two possible outcomes for each runs, often designated success or failure (grand prize yes, grand prize no).
The probability of success, p, is the same for every run.
Using your numbers in case of two chests: Probability(success) = p = 0.0396 Probability(failure) = 1-p = 1 - 0.0396 = 0.9604
If the following conditions are true (as I believe they are), than the geometric distribution is the appropriate model: Pr(X=k) = (1-p)^(k-1) * p
It’s the probability that the first occurrence of success requires k number of independent runs, each with success probability p.
The cumulative distribution function is 1-(1-p)^k, which is exactly what you wrote, but k is not the number of chests, but the number of runs (because the number of chests is already considered in the value of p=0.0396).
You can follow the same reasoning in case you have 1 chest only: P(success) = 0.02 P(failure) = 0.98
and the same distribution applies.
Give a name to the two cases: Case A) Probability(success) = 0.0396, Probability(failure) = 1 - 0.0396 = 0.9604 Case b) P(success) = 0.02, P(failure) = 0.98
Case A mean = M(case A) = the average number of runs before you find a good loot when two chests are available = 1/p = ~25 runs Case B mean = M(caseB) = the average number of runs before you find a good loot when one chest is available = 1/p = 50 runs (that's why I think that 0.02 is too high)
And now the tricky point: the variance is the real problem imo. V(case A) = (1-p)/p^2 = 612 = +/- ~24 runs V(case B.) = 2450 = +/- ~50 runs
It means that not only the number of runs increases as an average, but also your range of uncertainty. If p = 0.005, then the expected number of runs is 200 with +/- ~200 runs instead of +/- ~100 when 2 chests are available.
If the RNG is not nice with 2 chests, with 1 chest only you have the real bad boss of the game: it feeds the feeling of injustice - he got it after 3 runs, I got nothing after 250 runs.
Post edited by rapo973 on
Oltreverso guild leader Maga Othelma - DC | Svalvolo - SW | Dente Avvelenato- GWF
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tripsofthrymrMember, Neverwinter Moderator, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,624Community Moderator
here's the thing, I would like to ask @mimicking#6533 or @terramak or any other dev, what a small guild have to do to survive and to feed our SH mimic without a such big loss (50ZEN/25K AD key vs average <5k AD rewards)? As devs did you thought about the impact this change will have on small guilds?
I would like some mods like @ironzerg79 or @tripsofthrymr or @kreatyve answer the same question, how can a small guild will survive after this change with the SH mimic to feed?
The moderators all agree that the loot table needs a major overhaul along concurrent with removal of the Decline button (both happen, or neither). We're vocal about it every opportunity we get.
here's the thing, I would like to ask @mimicking#6533 or @terramak or any other dev, what a small guild have to do to survive and to feed our SH mimic without a such big loss (50ZEN/25K AD key vs average <5k AD rewards)? As devs did you thought about the impact this change will have on small guilds?
I would like some mods like @ironzerg79 or @tripsofthrymr or @kreatyve answer the same question, how can a small guild will survive after this change with the SH mimic to feed?
The moderators all agree that the loot table needs a major overhaul along with removal of the Decline button. We're vocal about it every opportunity we get.
You really didn't answer his question though, he asked how they can survive, not what you guys have been saying to the devs. Odd how the devs and @strumslinger are all MIA right now.
oh look ! a legendary dragon keys discount ahahahahaha
I hear that's a bug.
...............vote for your favourite expansion.......... "Mod 6. Oh my f****** god. It gutted the game pure and simple. And what wasn't gutted was messed up by the poorly thought out new level cap and equip. The game never recovered from that atrocity". ..............not this one then.............
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mrvincent1959Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 740Arc User
There are some things that need to be done NOW:
1. Make Lanolin easier to get. Having to do HEs for a chance at Lanolin is a miserable experience. You made changes to Ten Town Supplies which was great, so I know you can do this.
2. Modify 2nd chest within the chest in FBI to give a much better chance to get gear. People are quitting for that reason alone.
3. Reduce Voninblod amounts for maintaining the gear. OK, if you insist on having to maintain gear with Voninblod, reduce amount needed. Again, people are starting to throw their hands up in the air and wonder if this is all really worth it the way things are now.
4. Get a whiteboard and put it in the middle of the office and write this in bold: NO MORE HEROIC ENCOUNTERS OR GOOFY IDEAS LIKE FISHING, WORK ON BRINGING BACK THE OLD SKIRMISHES AND DUNGEONS AS IS WITH MULTI TIER DIFFICULTY AND DROPS PEOPLE CAN USE OR SELL
twitch.tv/kaligold
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silverkeltMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 4,235Arc User
1. Make Lanolin easier to get. Having to do HEs for a chance at Lanolin is a miserable experience. You made changes to Ten Town Supplies which was great, so I know you can do this.
2. Modify 2nd chest within the chest in FBI to give a much better chance to get gear. People are quitting for that reason alone.
3. Reduce Voninblod amounts for maintaining the gear. OK, if you insist on having to maintain gear with Voninblod, reduce amount needed. Again, people are starting to throw their hands up in the air and wonder if this is all really worth it the way things are now.
4. Get a whiteboard and put it in the middle of the office and write this in bold: NO MORE HEROIC ENCOUNTERS OR GOOFY IDEAS LIKE FISHING, WORK ON BRINGING BACK THE OLD SKIRMISHES AND DUNGEONS AS IS WITH MULTI TIER DIFFICULTY AND DROPS PEOPLE CAN USE OR SELL
Hire this dude right here.. he gets it like 1000000x more then anyone you have working for you.
Whatever half HAMSTER measure they are thinking of implementing (if any at all) Im sure they are not even discussing the real issues in the game.
I sure am glad that my house key isn't consumed everytime that I unlock the front door to my house... Very disappointing, I was just starting to really enjoy this game again. This change as explained by the dev team is a blatanty obvious cash grab tactic and I foresee it taking the wind out of many players sails.
I guess that it may be time to check out the changes made to ESO and Destiny for this guy...
Get a whiteboard and put it in the middle of the office and write this in bold: NO MORE HEROIC ENCOUNTERS OR GOOFY IDEAS LIKE FISHING, WORK ON BRINGING BACK THE OLD SKIRMISHES AND DUNGEONS AS IS WITH MULTI TIER DIFFICULTY AND DROPS PEOPLE CAN USE OR SELL
You're assuming these people can read and write. Why else do you think they got the European community moderator to make the announcement, and have created mickey mouse content since Mod 6.
Our pain is self chosen.
The most important thing in life is to be yourself. Unless you can be Batman. Always be Batman.
From all I have read about FBI it sounds like I am better off avoiding it. From what you guys are posting it sounds like a miserable frustrating experience.
Hey everyone, now that I'm back from vacation and am not drowning too terribly from emails and tasks, I will say that I totally understand your frustrations. Expect a follow up very soon.
Also, I'd like to debunk any rumors of negative things happening to the game whenever I'm on vacation. It's a mere coincidence - not one that I enjoy as I'd rather be here when these announcements happen so it doesn't follow me during my vacation.
I'd also like to thank Xeltey, my EU counterpart, for stepping in and making the announcement.
Call me Andy (or Strum, or Spider-Man)! Follow Neverwinter on Twitter: NeverwinterGame Like Neverwinter on Facebook: Neverwinter Follow me on Twitter: StrumSlinger
Hey everyone, now that I'm back from vacation and am not drowning too terribly from emails and tasks, I will say that I totally understand your frustrations. Expect a follow up very soon.
Also, I'd like to debunk any rumors of negative things happening to the game whenever I'm on vacation. It's a mere coincidence - not one that I enjoy as I'd rather be here when these announcements happen so it doesn't follow me during my vacation.
I'd also like to thank Xeltey, my EU counterpart, for stepping in and making the announcement.
Thank you @strumslinger. I really feel for Xeltey as Cryptic really hung him out to dry by getting him to make the announcement with his first appearance in your absence. It really was poor form and I hope you make it known to them.
Our pain is self chosen.
The most important thing in life is to be yourself. Unless you can be Batman. Always be Batman.
...............vote for your favourite expansion.......... "Mod 6. Oh my f****** god. It gutted the game pure and simple. And what wasn't gutted was messed up by the poorly thought out new level cap and equip. The game never recovered from that atrocity". ..............not this one then.............
Agreed... And, I was kidding by the way, with the key 'bug' around that everybody has been 'exploiting'. I'll try to look if strum ever 'exploited' in one of his streams.
Oh I thought you were serious, sorry Some people do truly seem to think this game is exploit free now in dungeons xD
You're assuming these people can read and write. Why else do you think they got the European community moderator to make the announcement, and have created mickey mouse content since Mod 6.
I severely hope this "follow up" will contain more than the usual corporate HAMSTER. We are not interested why you had to do it, which part of the playerbase you had to protect, that you did it to make a better game long-term and that you are monitoring the situation to make future adjustments.
No more words, we need a hotfix to chest loot with Sea of Moving Ice until you come up with a full redesign.
Hey everyone, now that I'm back from vacation and am not drowning too terribly from emails and tasks, I will say that I totally understand your frustrations. Expect a follow up very soon.
Also, I'd like to debunk any rumors of negative things happening to the game whenever I'm on vacation. It's a mere coincidence - not one that I enjoy as I'd rather be here when these announcements happen so it doesn't follow me during my vacation.
I'd also like to thank Xeltey, my EU counterpart, for stepping in and making the announcement.
Note from Cryptic Legal: You forgot to add the (tm) after the word soon: "Expect a follow up very soon(tm)." It's important for us to maintain the proper level of expectation of transparency. We thank you for your cooperation.
Hey everyone, now that I'm back from vacation and am not drowning too terribly from emails and tasks, I will say that I totally understand your frustrations. Expect a follow up very soon.
Also, I'd like to debunk any rumors of negative things happening to the game whenever I'm on vacation. It's a mere coincidence - not one that I enjoy as I'd rather be here when these announcements happen so it doesn't follow me during my vacation.
I'd also like to thank Xeltey, my EU counterpart, for stepping in and making the announcement.
Maybe its a coincidence... maybe or not. Perhaps they are announcing such nerfs and HAMSTER purposely within your absence. "Hey, mate! Our community manager is on vacation. Let's HAMSTER up Neverwinter even more, when he returns he will be too relaxed to do stuff." "Well, I don't see why not."
Comments
Hahaha
lol XD
You reasoning is correct and let's assume for a moment that the drop chance is actually 2% (I think it's even lower)
As you wrote, we have 2 chests but the following conditions are met as well:
- The phenomenon being modelled is a sequence of independent runs.
- There are only two possible outcomes for each runs, often designated success or failure (grand prize yes, grand prize no).
- The probability of success, p, is the same for every run.
Using your numbers in case of two chests:Probability(success) = p = 0.0396
Probability(failure) = 1-p = 1 - 0.0396 = 0.9604
If the following conditions are true (as I believe they are), than the geometric distribution is the appropriate model:
Pr(X=k) = (1-p)^(k-1) * p
It’s the probability that the first occurrence of success requires k number of independent runs, each with success probability p.
The cumulative distribution function is 1-(1-p)^k, which is exactly what you wrote, but k is not the number of chests, but the number of runs (because the number of chests is already considered in the value of p=0.0396).
You can follow the same reasoning in case you have 1 chest only:
P(success) = 0.02
P(failure) = 0.98
and the same distribution applies.
Give a name to the two cases:
Case A) Probability(success) = 0.0396, Probability(failure) = 1 - 0.0396 = 0.9604
Case b) P(success) = 0.02, P(failure) = 0.98
Case A mean = M(case A) = the average number of runs before you find a good loot when two chests are available = 1/p = ~25 runs
Case B mean = M(caseB) = the average number of runs before you find a good loot when one chest is available = 1/p = 50 runs
(that's why I think that 0.02 is too high)
And now the tricky point: the variance is the real problem imo.
V(case A) = (1-p)/p^2 = 612 = +/- ~24 runs
V(case B.) = 2450 = +/- ~50 runs
It means that not only the number of runs increases as an average, but also your range of uncertainty. If p = 0.005, then the expected number of runs is 200 with +/- ~200 runs instead of +/- ~100 when 2 chests are available.
If the RNG is not nice with 2 chests, with 1 chest only you have the real bad boss of the game: it feeds the feeling of injustice - he got it after 3 runs, I got nothing after 250 runs.
Oltreverso guild leader
Maga Othelma - DC | Svalvolo - SW | Dente Avvelenato- GWF
alongconcurrent with removal of the Decline button (both happen, or neither). We're vocal about it every opportunity we get.Sci-fi author: The Gods We Make, The Gods We Seek, and Ji-min
ahahahahaha
"Mod 6. Oh my f****** god. It gutted the game pure and simple. And what wasn't gutted was messed up by the poorly thought out new level cap and equip. The game never recovered from that atrocity".
..............not this one then.............
1. Make Lanolin easier to get. Having to do HEs for a chance at Lanolin is a miserable experience. You made changes to Ten Town Supplies which was great, so I know you can do this.
2. Modify 2nd chest within the chest in FBI to give a much better chance to get gear. People are quitting for that reason alone.
3. Reduce Voninblod amounts for maintaining the gear. OK, if you insist on having to maintain gear with Voninblod, reduce amount needed. Again, people are starting to throw their hands up in the air and wonder if this is all really worth it the way things are now.
4. Get a whiteboard and put it in the middle of the office and write this in bold: NO MORE HEROIC ENCOUNTERS OR GOOFY IDEAS LIKE FISHING, WORK ON BRINGING BACK THE OLD SKIRMISHES AND DUNGEONS AS IS WITH MULTI TIER DIFFICULTY AND DROPS PEOPLE CAN USE OR SELL
Whatever half HAMSTER measure they are thinking of implementing (if any at all) Im sure they are not even discussing the real issues in the game.
Very disappointing, I was just starting to really enjoy this game again. This change as explained by the dev team is a blatanty obvious cash grab tactic and I foresee it taking the wind out of many players sails.
I guess that it may be time to check out the changes made to ESO and Destiny for this guy...
The most important thing in life is to be yourself. Unless you can be Batman. Always be Batman.
Also, I'd like to debunk any rumors of negative things happening to the game whenever I'm on vacation. It's a mere coincidence - not one that I enjoy as I'd rather be here when these announcements happen so it doesn't follow me during my vacation.
I'd also like to thank Xeltey, my EU counterpart, for stepping in and making the announcement.
Call me Andy (or Strum, or Spider-Man)!
Follow Neverwinter on Twitter: NeverwinterGame
Like Neverwinter on Facebook: Neverwinter
Follow me on Twitter: StrumSlinger
The most important thing in life is to be yourself. Unless you can be Batman. Always be Batman.
"Mod 6. Oh my f****** god. It gutted the game pure and simple. And what wasn't gutted was messed up by the poorly thought out new level cap and equip. The game never recovered from that atrocity".
..............not this one then.............
No more words, we need a hotfix to chest loot with Sea of Moving Ice until you come up with a full redesign.
Sekhmet@kvetchus_
Guilds: Greycloaks, Blackcloaks, Whitecloaks, Goldcloaks, Browncloaks, Spiritcloaks, Bluecloaks, Silvercloaks, Black Dawn
Tredecim: The Cloak Alliance
"Hey, mate! Our community manager is on vacation. Let's HAMSTER up Neverwinter even more, when he returns he will be too relaxed to do stuff."
"Well, I don't see why not."