I have to wonder what it's like to upgrade with a 1% chance - I cannae think right now what it is, but I know I've got some stones sitting in the bank with 1% upgrade chances, and unless I win the lottery they're going to stay that way.
Of course, any forum of this type mostly only shows you the extremes. Anyone who experiences the middle ground, where the number of wards used *roughly* averages out, those people are probably not going to post that info because it's not noteworthy. It's also human nature to remember the failures more than the successes. I wrote and ran a simple browser-based strategy game for a few friends last year. All but one of those (entirely rational) people were convinced their dice rolls were worse than everyone else's, even after I produces a table showing how it all averaged out. Even the eventual runaway winner thought he was hard done by.
I've not kept any records but I reckon I've had enough refines that succeeded in the first couple of attempts to balance out those where it seems to take loads. And, hey, at least pres wards are cheap.
I agree that it is mostly extreme cases that stand out to ourselves and that we share in posts. In fact I bet I have had at least a half dozen 1% success rates without using any wards at all on shards I didn't care about that I on occasion will try just for the heck of it.
RNG is an *****! Sometimes she does loves you, sometimes she doesn't.
My MH needed to upgrade from purple to legendary 2 (two) tries. (It's 10% chance too, as far as I remember)
My HRs MH needed something with 20+ tries...
If something is based on probability any end result is possible.
Despite the chance is 10% you can fail thousand times in a row cause it's always only 10% at every new try. It's not getting higher/lower.
One try is completely unaffected of another try!
wjile your math is correct, the law of probabilities would seem to say that if you had 10% each time the probability of you going 50 times w/o a hit would be (or should be) almost astronomical. They want you to buy a coal ward. In Casinoes if there is a 10 percent chance to win then it must be 10 percent and it is regulated by the gaming commission, here tho they can say whatever they want. I will say thos I have never spent more than 10 wards on a 10% upgrade BUT I have never leveled an enchantment past 8. Maybe the odds get longer at higher levels, they shouldn't but maybe they do
I actually had pretty good results this x2 RP and I was upgrading many enchants. I would have to say that most of them struck gold within the number you would associate with a percentage (say no more than 10 fails on a 10%). There were a few of what I would call anomalous results such as a 25% just absolutely would not hit. I even logged out, quit the game, did some stuff on another toon and still when I came back it failed another 8 times (total of 26 fails on a 25%). Even with results like that here and there I felt things worked better this time than any x2 RP before.
One perhaps important thing, I changed the way I was adding the pres ward. I used to use dropdown to select it but changed to dragging it over. I felt I was actually getting a fair shake this way which is strange as normally I feel like the most wi flagged person in Neverwinter.
RNG is an *****! Sometimes she does loves you, sometimes she doesn't.
My MH needed to upgrade from purple to legendary 2 (two) tries. (It's 10% chance too, as far as I remember)
My HRs MH needed something with 20+ tries...
If something is based on probability any end result is possible.
Despite the chance is 10% you can fail thousand times in a row cause it's always only 10% at every new try. It's not getting higher/lower.
One try is completely unaffected of another try!
I'd just like to point out that if something has a 50% chance of happening but after 100 tries it hasn't,then obviously the chance isn't 50%.I mean ofcourse it does matter ,how many times in a row it takes for something to happen.Theoretically it's possible to throw a dice 1000 times and get only one number,say a 6,but seriously if that were to happen wouldn't you think that the dice is somehow, tampered with?
Its why RNG is a bad thing someone can fail a 50% chance 100 times if they are unlucky and it must suck to be that person.
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vinceent1Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,264Arc User
edited March 2015
i have story too. todays. updated my lesser hoards to normals. its 20% to success. i started first and destroyed 18 pres wards and started to be furious. and then success and again and again and again ))) 4 times in a row success . and i have my 4 normal hoards )))
To calculate you have to figure the failure chance which at 10 attempts at 10% is a modest .387 but by 20 attempts it is .0886. So yeah RNG is not really RNG.....
whi9ch at 32 attempts being where I am currently is .0309. So no RNG is not RNG. while not mathematically impossible the odds of being struck by lightning are higher.
whi9ch at 32 attempts being where I am currently is .0309. So no RNG is not RNG. while not mathematically impossible the odds of being struck by lightning are higher.
thats the point. do like i told you, go in a low level area without many people and do a max of 10 attempts.
never upgrade something a protector enclave.
whi9ch at 32 attempts being where I am currently is .0309. So no RNG is not RNG. while not mathematically impossible the odds of being struck by lightning are higher.
...it's more like the chance of being injured in a car accident during any given decade or somesuch. According to the NOAA, the US chances of being struck by lightning during your 80y lifetime (in the USA, there might be less balmy climates...) is 1/12000, or 0.0000833...
Binomial distribution
p=0.1 (chance for one try)
k=1 (number of successes)
n= the magic number (number of tries)
Sucess chance (cumulative upper distribution) for several n (tries)
1 -> 10% | 2 -> 19% | 3 -> 27% | 4 -> 34% | 5 -> 41%
6 -> 47% | 7 -> 52% | 8 -> 57% | 9 -> 61% | 10 -> 65%
12 -> 72% | 14 -> 77% | 16 -> 82% | 18 -> 85% | 20 -> 88%
25 -> 93% | 30 -> 95.8% | 40 -> 98.5% | 50 -> 99.7%
So let´s face the truth... pen&paper style: " Okay dude, roll a d100".. "Oh you rolled a 7! You loose 25 wards!"
The chance to do it with first try (10%) is the same as to need more than 22 tries (no success at 90%)...
I had them both. But first try succes was one (lucky) time and more than 22... happend about 5 times so far... once I used more than 30... and most players I talk to recognized the same behaviour. I assume the reason is burried in the random number generator. Its a science itself to generate near-real random values. Read about FORTUNA for example...
The stories like "I never do at PE" and "I drink one beer between two tries" may sound alien but... I always close the window, move some seconds and then try again. *laughs*... really! Why? No idea .. perhaps I tried to open a skill node (75% success) and had a fail, clicked again, fail, again, fail, again, fail (chance is 0,4%) and that happened several times in Sharandar in about one hour... when I wait some seconds between the tries this never happens so often. Thats only my personal experience...
Its between conspiracy, math and computer science. I am really happy that a green ward costs 5k AD. In comparison to the two rank 9 and the 2 GMOP... who really cares!? ^^
My calculation tool can not show the number... an it has 15 positions after decimal point ;-)
If you have a vid of this...
.. never work as a croupier.. ahh.. do it! And call me then! (peace!)
Its been said here many times before. But the RNG here has a reputation of being streaky. If you get a good result keep trying, its likely you will often get several in a row. However, if you are on a bad streak, STOP. Do something else, come back to it a bit later, give the seed a chance to reset. You will often find your luck much better this way.
I think there is truth to this approach, based on my experience. RNG seems to like to get "stuck" periodically. There even a serious discussion not too long ago, complete with graphs . . .
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!" pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all." looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
You have to figure the fail rate probability for multiples. People mix it up because they generally get introduced to the concept via flipping coins qwhere the fail and success state are the same at .5. Thing is multiplying decimals or fractions will always decrese so figuring the fail rate is the way to go. At 10% success our fail rate is 90% or .9. Where n is number of attempts this is .9^n. Although B3llistor's method looks correct mine is a lot easier and yields the same result;) @suicidalgodot: Ok I exaggerated a little bit. The thing is I have had several 20+ attempts that failed.And I have not been in the game long enough to make 80y worth of 'rolls' on our lightning table This brings to mind an argument I had with a chemistry proctor decades ago:
"Your math is wrong."
"Well it's an odd-numbered problem right?" (odd problems had no solution in the apendix of the text)
"Yes"
"And my answer is correct to 3 signifigant figures?"
"Yes"
"Well then, either my math is right or I am one incredibly good guesser..." (In this case my math is right or I am extremely unlucky)
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!" pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all." looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
...
My calculation tool can not show the number... an it has 15 positions after decimal point ;-)
If you have a vid of this...
.. never work as a croupier.. ahh.. do it! And call me then! (peace!)
...
If only I had a vid of this it would be interesting. If you could also hear me 'talking' (cough) in the background during the later stages it would be even more interesting.
Comments
I agree that it is mostly extreme cases that stand out to ourselves and that we share in posts. In fact I bet I have had at least a half dozen 1% success rates without using any wards at all on shards I didn't care about that I on occasion will try just for the heck of it.
wjile your math is correct, the law of probabilities would seem to say that if you had 10% each time the probability of you going 50 times w/o a hit would be (or should be) almost astronomical. They want you to buy a coal ward. In Casinoes if there is a 10 percent chance to win then it must be 10 percent and it is regulated by the gaming commission, here tho they can say whatever they want. I will say thos I have never spent more than 10 wards on a 10% upgrade BUT I have never leveled an enchantment past 8. Maybe the odds get longer at higher levels, they shouldn't but maybe they do
One perhaps important thing, I changed the way I was adding the pres ward. I used to use dropdown to select it but changed to dragging it over. I felt I was actually getting a fair shake this way which is strange as normally I feel like the most wi flagged person in Neverwinter.
I'd just like to point out that if something has a 50% chance of happening but after 100 tries it hasn't,then obviously the chance isn't 50%.I mean ofcourse it does matter ,how many times in a row it takes for something to happen.Theoretically it's possible to throw a dice 1000 times and get only one number,say a 6,but seriously if that were to happen wouldn't you think that the dice is somehow, tampered with?
thats the point. do like i told you, go in a low level area without many people and do a max of 10 attempts.
never upgrade something a protector enclave.
this sounds like medieval mathematical superstition.
...it's more like the chance of being injured in a car accident during any given decade or somesuch. According to the NOAA, the US chances of being struck by lightning during your 80y lifetime (in the USA, there might be less balmy climates...) is 1/12000, or 0.0000833...
Binomial distribution
p=0.1 (chance for one try)
k=1 (number of successes)
n= the magic number (number of tries)
Sucess chance (cumulative upper distribution) for several n (tries)
1 -> 10% | 2 -> 19% | 3 -> 27% | 4 -> 34% | 5 -> 41%
6 -> 47% | 7 -> 52% | 8 -> 57% | 9 -> 61% | 10 -> 65%
12 -> 72% | 14 -> 77% | 16 -> 82% | 18 -> 85% | 20 -> 88%
25 -> 93% | 30 -> 95.8% | 40 -> 98.5% | 50 -> 99.7%
So let´s face the truth... pen&paper style: " Okay dude, roll a d100".. "Oh you rolled a 7! You loose 25 wards!"
The chance to do it with first try (10%) is the same as to need more than 22 tries (no success at 90%)...
I had them both. But first try succes was one (lucky) time and more than 22... happend about 5 times so far... once I used more than 30... and most players I talk to recognized the same behaviour. I assume the reason is burried in the random number generator. Its a science itself to generate near-real random values. Read about FORTUNA for example...
The stories like "I never do at PE" and "I drink one beer between two tries" may sound alien but... I always close the window, move some seconds and then try again. *laughs*... really! Why? No idea .. perhaps I tried to open a skill node (75% success) and had a fail, clicked again, fail, again, fail, again, fail (chance is 0,4%) and that happened several times in Sharandar in about one hour... when I wait some seconds between the tries this never happens so often. Thats only my personal experience...
Its between conspiracy, math and computer science. I am really happy that a green ward costs 5k AD. In comparison to the two rank 9 and the 2 GMOP... who really cares!? ^^
My calculation tool can not show the number... an it has 15 positions after decimal point ;-)
If you have a vid of this...
.. never work as a croupier.. ahh.. do it! And call me then! (peace!)
Please excuse bad english/wording.
//Bellistor
I think there is truth to this approach, based on my experience. RNG seems to like to get "stuck" periodically. There even a serious discussion not too long ago, complete with graphs . . .
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!"
pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all."
looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
Can u provide a link? I would like to read it..
Thanks!
//Bellistor
It is.
Perform X ritual for Y outcome while ignoring the scientific method = the definition of superstition.
I Upgrade in PE all the time, because I am lazy. It seems to work fine, but I have no actual numbers. :P
@suicidalgodot: Ok I exaggerated a little bit. The thing is I have had several 20+ attempts that failed.And I have not been in the game long enough to make 80y worth of 'rolls' on our lightning table This brings to mind an argument I had with a chemistry proctor decades ago:
"Your math is wrong."
"Well it's an odd-numbered problem right?" (odd problems had no solution in the apendix of the text)
"Yes"
"And my answer is correct to 3 signifigant figures?"
"Yes"
"Well then, either my math is right or I am one incredibly good guesser..." (In this case my math is right or I am extremely unlucky)
I looked a little and cannot find that thread. I tried a few different searches. Sorry!
myles08807 said, "Back in my day, we didn't have any of this fancy Mulhorand gear while we were leveling . . . we walked uphill both ways while dying once every five seconds while leveling, and we liked it fine!" . . . Now, get off my lawn, you kids!"
pointsman said, "I don't rue the game. In fact I don't feel any regret for the game at all."
looomis said, "I don't like people changing to alts and then bragging about their mains like schizophrenic role players."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
What you are experiencing as a streak is actually an illusion, in reality it is perfectly random bwahahahaahha
ya...idfk haha
If only I had a vid of this it would be interesting. If you could also hear me 'talking' (cough) in the background during the later stages it would be even more interesting.
It's "I have a 90% chance of failure every time I roll.".
and it blows.