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How do you handle the lockbox/chest RNG?
jrfbrunet
Member Posts: 388 Arc User
Most of us are aware of the dodgy RNG system in Neverwinter.
I've heard many recommendations about hoarding lockboxes, casks, chests,etc. and then opening them all at once (something about the streakiness of the RNG)
So I ask all of you who've had some success with drops from these boxes/chests: What exactly is your best method of opening them?
1. Do you click in rapid succesion to open as many as possible in the shortest time span?
2. Do you click once per 2 seconds until you see a great item drop, and then rapidly click?
3.
4.
I'm just interested for myself, and the community, what the general consensus would be for getting the best possible "luck" from opening lockboxes/chests.
Should this be a poll?
I've heard many recommendations about hoarding lockboxes, casks, chests,etc. and then opening them all at once (something about the streakiness of the RNG)
So I ask all of you who've had some success with drops from these boxes/chests: What exactly is your best method of opening them?
1. Do you click in rapid succesion to open as many as possible in the shortest time span?
2. Do you click once per 2 seconds until you see a great item drop, and then rapidly click?
3.
4.
I'm just interested for myself, and the community, what the general consensus would be for getting the best possible "luck" from opening lockboxes/chests.
Should this be a poll?
Where'd my blinky-blinky path go?
Post edited by jrfbrunet on
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-Joshua (WarGames)
Yes i think i have found another drinking game sure to get you drunk within your first 10 boxes. Well done sir.
Your logic is only valid when the RNG system is close to being random. Many players on this forum claim to notice a not-so-random streakiness in Neverwinter.
The RNG-code/system used by the Neverwinter Devs has been stated numerous times to be inferior to other MMO RNG systems.
We know that no algorithm will be able to produce a truly random number between 1 and 100. The perceived randomness (the more random the results over a very long test session, the more superior the RNG is said to be) of most MMO RNGs isn't replicated very well here.
So, for those players who have in fact "tried their luck" and noticed which sort of opening method works the best, could you post that here?
I'm not buying keys personally; I'm just saving chests like "Cask of Wonders" and "Sword Coast Profession Bag" in stacks.
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It's like people insisting they have a 'system' for slot machines that involves pressing the button on the corner, or waiting a few seconds, or whatever. None of it works.
For refining a lvl3 enchantment stone, you have an 80% chance of success - which means that if you refined 1,000 of them, you should have ~800 of them successful on the first try.
What I'm interested in is better data, so I guess a better question would be:
If you have personally refined 100 or 1,000 or 500 of whatever, kept track of successes and failures, and then found that the actual success ratio did not match the stated XX% chance of success, please post your findings here.
If your results are different from the stated XX% chance of success, AND you used a particular method when refining, post that here also.
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... thing is, the % chance being different than the one stated doesn't make it the RNG's fault. It makes it the developers' fault for not listing an accurate % chance for refining. And the lockboxes don't even have a percentage chance listed for anything, people have to open thousands upon thousands of them in the Preview shard to figure that out.
when you have a 1%, 10% or 40% chance to get that RANDOM item.
...add to that
when you open a lockbox to get an allegedly "random" item, and if you don't get one of the Major prizes... you most likely get to open another box with another allegedly "random" item in it.
You've taken your own post off-topic here as refining and lockboxes are not the same thing...
but since we're here...
80% on refining RNG is NOT 800 of 1000... it's an 80% chance on that ONE try.
Refining % is based on a SINGLE roll NOT accumulative rolls
if I roll a d10 and have a 80% chance of success on EACH roll meaning I need a 3 or higher to succeed and I roll 10 times:
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
I successful made ZERO of 10... although the odds of happening are a whole other discussion... it could happen.
Let's make it simple. Your odds of winning are not cumulative.
Not cumulative.
Do not accumulate.
Every single time you open a box is a new and isolated event that spins the RNG up and spits out a result.
"The odds say 80%, I opened 100 boxes, why didn't get 80 winners???" seems reasonable. But, it's wrong.
No, we get it.
Have you ever heard of odds? Statistics?
The refining window clearly states 80% chance, for example. If your sample size is large enough (and 1,000 should be, per most MMO testing standards), then you should come out with ~800 successes per 1,000 tries per the laws of statistics and what the Neverwinter RNG is claiming to accomplish through its 80%-tuned algorithm.
Any result that doesn't come to ~800 is in fact random and thus isn't an 80% chance at all.
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Ray, please if your not going to add a constructive post like our fellows here, just don't post... Whether you figure out the math or not it, means nothing to the community boosting about it... So either share your findings like everyone here and we can be amaze by your math skills for helping the community players or just keep it to your self and let the helpful veterans of the game help... Don't add to the problem be part of the solution or get out... :rolleyes:
Earlier this year I tracked profession results. Each task had a 60% success rate. I haven't tracked results in a few weeks, but these numbers sound up your alley.
Wow, your awesome, this is very insightful and helpful!!! :eek:
um, actually that's exactly what 80% chance means.
if you open 100 and don't get 80, then the odds aren't 80, they are... whatever you got.
of course there are minor variations, one batch of 100 you might get 79, another 81, or even 87 or 72 (those last 2 are flukes though). eventually if you open enough, it should average out to around 80 per 100 - that's what 80% means.
that's exactly what it means....
you see, computers use a complicated equation to generate random numbers. computers can't just pull a random number out of the air, that's not how they work. computers are just fancy adding machines, that's all they do, add up numbers. so to make a "random" (not really) number they start with some number, called a "seed" then apply some math to it. the seed is usually something unique like the date+time (down to the millisecond) but it can be anything. the trouble with these methods is that if you start with the same exact "seed" you'll end up with the same exact "random" (not random) number at the end. think about it, if my seed is 1 and my RNG says (add +1 to the seed) then 1+1 =2. always. it will never not equal 2... as long as my seed is 1.
Awesome. My experience with Profession tasks is the same: the %chance stated is pretty accurate.
Anyone have numbers on refining attempts?
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As for "streakiness," I've only had that happen once that I can remember. I opened 3 lockboxes in a row (pausing each time to view the results in the window to artificially elongate my suspense) and 2 of them gave me the same thing.
...
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Performing ritual pony sacrifices to Tiamat to earn favor with the RNG Gods since 2014.
...
Aye, there's the rub. 100 is far, far, faaar to small a sample set to make any conclusion about chances.
That'd be falling into the mistaken belief in Law of Averages. Or even the Gambler's Fallacy.
RNG "chance" is only converged upon by the Law of Large Numbers which basically means you need a really, really large sample set to converge on the actual % chance.
You could just as easily have a streak of 100 losses, then 700 wins, then 100 losses, then 100 wins and get an 80% chance.
Just 'cause you opened 100 lockboxes and got nothing doesn't mean anything statistically.
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It may not be listed, but it sure is there.
Tenser's Floating Disk was purposely given a lower percent chance.
Wish I could myself in the past though, can't even calculate in mind the ammount of zen I wasted on those lol
WTB Class Reroll please
Bought two sets of keys, to try my luck (did above average), decided that was enough of a gamble for me.
However lockboxes started dropping like crazy. Around level 26, I had zero. By level 46 I had 155 boxes.
The proof I cannot support? Is if me buying the keys increased the boxes dropping. It feels like it.
If that is true? Then anything is possible.
There is nothing you can do, to put the odds in your favor. How fast you click, do not click, how many boxes you save or do not save. That would be bad for business.
Surprised they haven't started selling lock box, luck boosts, that increase your chances of purple or orange loot by 25% or something.
As a poker player, this is completely true. When you tell someone, "You have 50/50 odds."
Most people honestly think, those odds aren't too bad. That at worst? They can break even.
Suddenly they lose 10 times in a row, or 20. In 50/50 odd situations, they seemed shocked, thinking things are rigged.
But the longer you play those odds, the closer things will go back to even. Problem is you are broke by then, without managment.
With lockboxes it is like poker hands, really. You do not have a clear understanding of the true odds (or how good of player you are), until you get into the thousands of attempts. By that time, it is usually a expensive lesson, to find out where exactly your odds lie.
Lets say, a person opens their first lock box, and gets the drake mount. That does not mean, they should expect it every lockbox.
1,000 more times, and they may not get anything again.
Personally It makes more sense to just buy Zen, and buy the items you want on the AH. Or if some things you want are not on there? Well... just buy keys once a month and think of it as an MMO subscription.
Back on topic, I suppose no one has opened enough chests (other than lockboxes) to discern when a streak with the RNG is occuring, or how to make one occur (if such a thing is possible with the Neverwinter RNG system).
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