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700 boxes and just 1 good item.
claudiuuux
Member Posts: 6 Arc User
Hey guys i just wanna let you know that i opened 700 boxes in just 2 hours , spent around 15 mil ad and all i got was a pseudodragon ..My opinion is that this is hard time scamming i dunno.Wanna hear ur opinion about this. its like 0.15% chances to get a purples mount or pet .
Post edited by claudiuuux on
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Next time buy p.vorpal+p.soulforged instead...
zen mount > box mount
I hate to say this, but as I've said before it's next to impossible to get a ratio that's even just a little off off a single positive result. It's like me saying that because I flipped a coin ten times and got 1 heads and 9 tails the odds of getting a Heads result is 10%.
Cryptic have access to the real numbers and of the results all across the server, I'm fairly certain that if the results were that disparagingly off they'd correct the randomisation algorithms to compensate. (Average tests on lockboxes in CO and STO came out at about 1-2% for the top prize)
Cheers.
RNG doesn't work like this. 700 boxes is not enough for you to reach statistical equivalence on your results (although it's a respectable number).
Just ignore boxes. In a way, they are meant to scam people like it happened to you, just like the casinos... offer the chance of high prizes, and people will think "OMG, I'll be lucky".
Well, don't be a fool and don't indulge the scammers. Hope you learned something...
Never buy keys, boxes, never open them, ignore them completely other than selling them to fools.
Now, this will make you sick... One guild member opened two boxes (just two, no more), and got two Owl Bears in a row. Instant 2 million AD! Bam!
Join Essence of Aggression: PVP-ing Hard Since Beta!
Mine was a mix of RL Cash and AD...
What a rip - off.
I mean I understand random is random.... but come on....
Not to mention, Zen and In-Game currency purchases that dont find their way to my iventory until AFTER I file a report, that it takes DAYS for them to bother to answer....
Wish I did not enjoy the missions, so I would have an easier time just dumping this half-assed tragedy of a game.
lol man..its not like that. do it 100 times or 700 times not 10 times...and u will see u will get it close to 50-50%. I didnt just opened 10 or 100 lets say i done it 7 times x 100 and its just 1 it gave 1% lets say..so ur wrong with ur example
Cryptic's RNG has a tendency to be streaky. This can be both good and bad.
For example, if you are having good luck. Its worth your time to keep pushing on.
However if you are on a bad streak. STOP! This is where the complaints of "I failed 10 times on a resource node" or "I failed to fuse 8 times in a row on a 90%" When its obvious you are locked into a bad streak, for pities sake STOP. Do something else, come back later. Break the streak and try again.
Opening 700 boxes in a rapid series of mass clicks is pretty much a sure fire way for the RNG to lock you into a bad streak and destroy your will for living. It is ALWAYS better to open a few at a time.
I would advise you to go and invest in day trading or something much more lucrative if you have the time and extra $$ to spend.
As far as boxes given that the game is free to play and the boxes are their main cash makers I would say the boxes are rigged yes but it is not scam it is blatantly obvious. Boxes is how they make money so I would not be surprised if they have an algorithm that spits out x amount of good items per opens so they can track the metrics and have more on paper investment money.
But seriously with that kind of gambling you could of made real cash.
This is how it works, you're right
**
I have a great method for fusing gems.
Do not stick to the same stack of gems. Keep switching around, back and forth. Fuse radiants, then for example, empowered runestones, then Darks, then azures etc.
I almost never fail at fusing, back in CO i fused rank 8's without protection wards by using this method.
**
Best of luck to whoever tries out my method.
Unfortunately (or actually lucky for me this time) opening those few boxes didn't cure my gambling bug and I still had keys left so I opened a bunch of nightmare boxes. I was after profession packs because I needed some more adventurers and I know they drop pretty steadily from the boxes so I figured I shouldn't lose too badly. I made a killing. After I used 20 keys I got 2 mounts almost back to back. It felt like it was Nightmare Thursday and I was the Lucky one for once. Even if I didn't get the mounts I still would have made money back from the nightmare boxes because the coal wards and adventurers I got almost paid for my keys.
I am not sure you understand how statistics work. Each lockbox may give you a 1% chance to get the loot you're looking for (I say "may" because I am not certain exactly what the chance is). So you went through 700 boxes, each box was independent of any other box, so you had 700 attempts at a 1 in 100 shot at a desirable outcome.
Nope, they are real winners. I have seen my name in there a few times and I have messaged some of the winners trying to make a deal on the item they just won.
Honestly, I have the best luck when I open a bunch of lockboxes at one time. Opening 2 or 3 here or there never seemed to do me much good. But....what Sockmunkey said is still true...if I open a bunch and they are giving me junk I stop for a bit to get out of that bad loop. The boxes have a tendency to give you the same prize over and over if you keep going very quickly.
And I agree 100%....I would not put any RL money into opening lockboxes. For me they just exist as something to waste some AD on when I have a lot just sitting around.
Thats all but impossible. Considering the message only has the character name and not the players @handle. A little embellishing perhaps?
Does it say I have messaged EVERY SINGLE WINNER??? No it does not. With the search feature you can find players occasionally with just their name. A lot of the time people open their boxes in PE, and if they are there it is not that hard to figure out who they are. It does not work all the time, but you can find them.
As a matter of fact....It is not that hard to figure out who it is because I got messages from three different players the other day asking me how many keys I used when I got two Inferno mounts almost back to back. My character's name is a common one and players were still able to find me with no trouble.
The point was though that you were going off one positive result, as others have said the RNG tends to be streaky but over time averages out to the results Cryptic have programmed.
Thousands, possibly millions of lockboxes are opened everyday, it's not hard to realise that you can be on an unlucky streak with the RNG. In the grand scheme of things you probably lowered the average drop rates of the mount and pet by a negligible and probably unnoticeable amount.
1 person getting a 1 in 700 result proves nothing.
And Cryptic's RNG is CLEARLY NOT RANDOM AT ALL, not even close. They need to at least make is so that the advertized drop rates occurs as random...
It seems that when you get a good drop, the next 5 or so will be good... but if you get a bad one, well, the next 100 probably be as well...
THIS IS NOT RANDOM. Get to work.
clustering illusion, really.
So, the rate is more one per thousand than one per cent. 700 is a lot of boxes, definitely enough to test a RNG. When Monsanto tests if their new ADN-modified corn kills bees, they don't use that many bees.
Are the other areas of the game with a said 1% actually 1%?