Anyone else noticed that the AD:ZEN price has been rising over the last week or so. At first I thought it was because of the Mount/Fashion sales and also the announcement that Cryptic were considering making most endgame items BoP. But both of these are no longer an issue, yet the AD:ZEN ratio is still rising. It was down to 270 I think at one stage yet is now almost 350....
He is looking at it from the perspective of a person that is buying Zen as a way to make AD (which is the opposite perspective of those of us that try to make money by playing the game). He is entitled to his opinion, but it is going to be the opposite of what the rest of us want.
Between the game going live and the sales that went on for the last week (along with a number of people thinking that AD will have no use if they can't buy end game gear with it) the AD:Zen ratio has been messed up all week. I am just sitting back and giving it time to see what the new normal is. Panicked markets tend to result in highs and lows that are far from equilibrium and all the change that has been going on caused panic (financial markets like stability which the three things I mentioned in the first sentence have been messing with).
A few possible things. Zen sales, Zen item sales, item BOP scare, adding salvaging worries.
Yes, these are the points I mentioned in the original post. But apart from the salvaging none of these are relevant now, and I doubt that the (possible) scavenging change is enough to have such a large impact.
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sasheriaMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 1Arc User
Between the game going live and the sales that went on for the last week (along with a number of people thinking that AD will have no use if they can't buy end game gear with it) the AD:Zen ratio has been messed up all week. I am just sitting back and giving it time to see what the new normal is. Panicked markets tend to result in highs and lows that are far from equilibrium and all the change that has been going on caused panic (financial markets like stability which the three things I mentioned in the first sentence have been messing with).
Heh.. sounds just like the stock market (which in this case it is since it is 1 type of "stock" )
keep in mind that that AD continue to "grow" in terms of earned. Zen originate from cash only. So if people are not buying Zen (which might be the case) this can cause the Zen price to go up (Cost more AD to buy 1 Zen)
Yes, these are the points I mentioned in the original post. But apart from the salvaging none of these are relevant now, and I doubt that the (possible) scavenging change is enough to have such a large impact.
Different people get over their panic at different rates and people that now believe AD are useless (because they cannot buy end game gear with AD and for some reason have trouble finding anything else they want on the auction house) are never going to go back to the way they were. AD are permanently devalued in their heads and some other big change will have to come around to change their mind back. Until then they are going to continue to be willing to spend AD like it has less value than it did 2 weeks ago.
Yes, these are the points I mentioned in the original post. But apart from the salvaging none of these are relevant now, and I doubt that the (possible) scavenging change is enough to have such a large impact.
Things aren't instant though. Its not going to bounce back instantly because people hoard stuff. I'm sure players on both sides have stockpiled AD and Zen to sell to new live launch players. Some bought up many AH items to resell later because of the fear of BOP so those that were selling have a surplus of AD. We've had a week of events with (I would guess) more people than normal playing. And the BOP thing isn't completely gone. They said their not doing it now because of several reasons. Its a real threat that they might work those out and add it in soon anyway.
In other words its going to take a bit for the exchange rate to settle down again. That's my opinion on it.
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sasheriaMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 1Arc User
Different people get over their panic at different rates and people that now believe AD are useless (because they cannot buy end game gear with AD and for some reason have trouble finding anything else they want on the auction house) are never going to go back to the way they were. AD are permanently devalued in their heads and some other big change will have to come around to change their mind back. Until then they are going to continue to be willing to spend AD like it has less value than it did 2 weeks ago.
Yea. This can be a factor. People could have been hoarding AD and try to buy their Epic BoE later while leveling. Now, they can't and more than likely any BoE out there will be worth more since they are the "last remnant of BoE Epic" so now they are converting their AD to Zen since Zen has a static value in Zen store (There is a minor exception since there was a price drop but generally it is pretty static)
Yea. This can be a factor. People could have been hoarding AD and try to buy their Epic BoE later while leveling. Now, they can't and more than likely any BoE out there will be worth more since they are the "last remnant of BoE Epic" so now they are converting their AD to Zen since Zen has a static value in Zen store (There is a minor exception since there was a price drop but generally it is pretty static)
More AD for Zen = more AD for items in AH (people have more AD through selling Zen so they can buy more so prices are increasing along with demand, lower prices will result in cheaper AH since more expensive items won't be selled).
+Some people are so desperated to sell their stuff that they're lobbying others by giving their items/zen cheaper price, sometimes much lower than people before. I experienced that by selling Tanner, first went for 24k AD, after 2 days 2nd went for 18k AD, after 5 days 3rd went for 10k AD.
most of ppl who planed to spend $ on ad already did they have maxed gems,gear,cats and there wasnt anything new on which they can spend ad for some time when guild bases come then might drop back to 200-300 if it will be like system in sto, bases as huge ad sink
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sasheriaMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 1Arc User
Yea. but that doesn't stop panic sell I see AD/Zen like the stock market. Any little thing that could effect it (real or imaginary) tend to cause panic among the people. Remember only a SMALL percentage actually go to the forums. Most just read the patch notes and news. (and that is not everyone either like not reading that the system will go into maintenance on the launcher)
The main thing driving it up right now is most likely the Alchemy bonus on profession packs.
The previous drive (250ish to 320ish) was likely due to the mount sale.
Remember guys, there are two sides to a ratio. AD-to-Zen increasing doesn't necessarily mean AD is losing value. It can just as well mean Zen is gaining value. Gotta consider context.
I'm hoping the fluctuation is organic in nature, not that exploiters have finally made their move or something. I actually made a comment in-game earlier about the rate being much higher than I noticed just a day ago and there was a sale then so I don't know.
Gone up to 350 AD:ZEN or close to that on all the servers. ^^
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maiku217Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 0Arc User
edited June 2013
It is quite obvious.. there is a huge demand on zen but all the people throwing their real life money into the game are leaving. Quite a simple logic there. With all the bugs and everything going on, it won't be long before it hits 400-450.
It's most likely the sale. As soon as it was announced I saw the price of Zen go up.
I'd been waiting for it to reach about 250:1, and it was baaaarely getting there, then they announced the sale, with permanent price drops immediately afterward. It went up because people are buying up all the cheap Zen to get at the sale.
It's too early to start calling doom and gloom on launch day, people. It's not because everyone's leaving. After the sale, the ratio will go down again.
jpnoleMember, Neverwinter Beta UsersPosts: 0Arc User
edited June 2013
It's all quite simple really. You trade your Zen for AD when it's trading above 400 and you use your AD to buy Zen when it dips below 300. Don't do anything when it's in the 300s.
Not sure the sale is enough to explain the huge scale of these rises (from not much above 250 to nearly 350) but I guess we will see what happens afterwards.
Cryptic can't keep endgame epics as BoP forever because there's barely any other money sink in the game! I'm hoping that one day Cryptic will realize they aren't making a lot of money anymore, so they will either have to create a whole new line of epic BOE items, or convert the current BoP items into BoE!
But until then, I'm gonna keep monitoring the Zen/AD Market and eventually stock up on more AD in case they do start adding tons of new epics at the AH!
If they don't, they're not gonna make enough money. There's no way this game could live on vanity items alone. Most players don't care about dyes, mounts, pets and costumes. They care about their character's stats and how powerful they can get!
Also I don't see why people care if a game becomes Pay2Win because almost all MMORPGs are Pay2Win! The only difference in between Neverwinter's Beta and other MMORPGs is that Cryptic gets all the money from people who Pay2Win! But in other MMORPGs, people buy gold form 3rd party websites to become better players! See the difference? In WoW, people will buy gold from a 3rd party website and make the website richer, not Blizzard! But in Neverwinter, all Cryptic has to do is stock up the AH with tons of epic BOE's and they get all the money!!!! Who's gonna visit a 3rd party Neverwinter website and buy gold when you can just buy Zen and convert it to AD?
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crusader468Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 27Arc User
edited June 2013
Ppl playing the Zen/AD like a stockbroker on Wallstreet, had been watching the exchage for a bit couple days ago...as soon zen got posted around 200/203 AD someone very rappidly bought it and reposted at 210, seems some ppl are really good at it.
Why they do it???..dunno, maybe of boredom or to be able to show of in a couple of months with ..Hey look what i got of the other silly ppl by playing the zen exchange...millions of AD, and then what...happy??LMFAO
In short terms, half the time it folk doing this to brag lateron
Cryptic can't keep endgame epics as BoP forever because there's barely any other money sink in the game! I'm hoping that one day Cryptic will realize they aren't making a lot of money anymore, so they will either have to create a whole new line of epic BOE items, or convert the current BoP items into BoE!
I thought there weren't any current BoP Epics?
Also the suggestion that seems to have been made the most in the thread about BoP Epics was to simply make the very top tier items BoP with the rest being BoE.
Cryptic can't keep endgame epics as BoP forever because there's barely any other money sink in the game! I'm hoping that one day Cryptic will realize they aren't making a lot of money anymore, so they will either have to create a whole new line of epic BOE items, or convert the current BoP items into BoE!
Uh, yeah they can. I know of at least one other game that did that. Runes of Magic, you then had to buy un-binders from the cash shop which only went on sale in the cash shop at first every few months (usually right before or after a major patch). I can see that in the near future...
Ppl playing the Zen/AD like a stockbroker on Wallstreet, had been watching the exchage for a bit couple days ago...as soon zen got posted around 200/203 AD someone very rappidly bought it and reposted at 210, seems some ppl are really good at it.
Why they do it???..dunno, maybe of boredom or to be able to show of in a couple of months with ..Hey look what i got through my use of hard work, intellect and passion...millions of AD, and then what they have money.]
In short terms, half the time it folk doing this buy things in the Auction House
Fixed it for you. If it's in a couple of months I don't know how you know half of people just want the approval of other instead of AD/Zen to buy things needed with the game being as new as it is.
Comments
You might be a bit confused. Players WANT the AD to Zen ratio lower so that the AD is worth MORE. Currently the ratio is DEVALUING your AD.
Sure when you purchase Zen you want all the AD you can get. Once you buy in though you are stuck with the market.
Yes, these are the points I mentioned in the original post. But apart from the salvaging none of these are relevant now, and I doubt that the (possible) scavenging change is enough to have such a large impact.
Heh.. sounds just like the stock market (which in this case it is since it is 1 type of "stock" )
keep in mind that that AD continue to "grow" in terms of earned. Zen originate from cash only. So if people are not buying Zen (which might be the case) this can cause the Zen price to go up (Cost more AD to buy 1 Zen)
Please review my campaign and I'll return the favor.
Different people get over their panic at different rates and people that now believe AD are useless (because they cannot buy end game gear with AD and for some reason have trouble finding anything else they want on the auction house) are never going to go back to the way they were. AD are permanently devalued in their heads and some other big change will have to come around to change their mind back. Until then they are going to continue to be willing to spend AD like it has less value than it did 2 weeks ago.
Things aren't instant though. Its not going to bounce back instantly because people hoard stuff. I'm sure players on both sides have stockpiled AD and Zen to sell to new live launch players. Some bought up many AH items to resell later because of the fear of BOP so those that were selling have a surplus of AD. We've had a week of events with (I would guess) more people than normal playing. And the BOP thing isn't completely gone. They said their not doing it now because of several reasons. Its a real threat that they might work those out and add it in soon anyway.
In other words its going to take a bit for the exchange rate to settle down again. That's my opinion on it.
Yea. This can be a factor. People could have been hoarding AD and try to buy their Epic BoE later while leveling. Now, they can't and more than likely any BoE out there will be worth more since they are the "last remnant of BoE Epic" so now they are converting their AD to Zen since Zen has a static value in Zen store (There is a minor exception since there was a price drop but generally it is pretty static)
Please review my campaign and I'll return the favor.
You do realize they cancelled the BOP update?
+Some people are so desperated to sell their stuff that they're lobbying others by giving their items/zen cheaper price, sometimes much lower than people before. I experienced that by selling Tanner, first went for 24k AD, after 2 days 2nd went for 18k AD, after 5 days 3rd went for 10k AD.
Fixed it for you
Yea. but that doesn't stop panic sell I see AD/Zen like the stock market. Any little thing that could effect it (real or imaginary) tend to cause panic among the people. Remember only a SMALL percentage actually go to the forums. Most just read the patch notes and news. (and that is not everyone either like not reading that the system will go into maintenance on the launcher)
Please review my campaign and I'll return the favor.
The previous drive (250ish to 320ish) was likely due to the mount sale.
Remember guys, there are two sides to a ratio. AD-to-Zen increasing doesn't necessarily mean AD is losing value. It can just as well mean Zen is gaining value. Gotta consider context.
I'd been waiting for it to reach about 250:1, and it was baaaarely getting there, then they announced the sale, with permanent price drops immediately afterward. It went up because people are buying up all the cheap Zen to get at the sale.
It's too early to start calling doom and gloom on launch day, people. It's not because everyone's leaving. After the sale, the ratio will go down again.
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But until then, I'm gonna keep monitoring the Zen/AD Market and eventually stock up on more AD in case they do start adding tons of new epics at the AH!
If they don't, they're not gonna make enough money. There's no way this game could live on vanity items alone. Most players don't care about dyes, mounts, pets and costumes. They care about their character's stats and how powerful they can get!
Also I don't see why people care if a game becomes Pay2Win because almost all MMORPGs are Pay2Win! The only difference in between Neverwinter's Beta and other MMORPGs is that Cryptic gets all the money from people who Pay2Win! But in other MMORPGs, people buy gold form 3rd party websites to become better players! See the difference? In WoW, people will buy gold from a 3rd party website and make the website richer, not Blizzard! But in Neverwinter, all Cryptic has to do is stock up the AH with tons of epic BOE's and they get all the money!!!! Who's gonna visit a 3rd party Neverwinter website and buy gold when you can just buy Zen and convert it to AD?
Why they do it???..dunno, maybe of boredom or to be able to show of in a couple of months with ..Hey look what i got of the other silly ppl by playing the zen exchange...millions of AD, and then what...happy??LMFAO
In short terms, half the time it folk doing this to brag lateron
I thought there weren't any current BoP Epics?
Also the suggestion that seems to have been made the most in the thread about BoP Epics was to simply make the very top tier items BoP with the rest being BoE.
Uh, yeah they can. I know of at least one other game that did that. Runes of Magic, you then had to buy un-binders from the cash shop which only went on sale in the cash shop at first every few months (usually right before or after a major patch). I can see that in the near future...
darklodus