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60% chance to upgrade from level 4 to level 5 savage enchantment... what a joke

wholyhandgrenadewholyhandgrenade Member Posts: 0 Arc User
edited June 2013 in General Discussion (PC)
since when does a 60 percent chance equate to 1 out of 20, followed again by 1 out of 20, followed again by 1 out of 20 ever succeeding ... this is so bad that I filed a ticket upon it, by my count I'm owed quite a lot.. heck the first time I was successful it removed 4 level 4's and failed to even give me the level 5 and I had inventory space open
Post edited by wholyhandgrenade on
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    killerellakillerella Member Posts: 215 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    Wow, I thought I was having bad luck, I was getting 1 out of 4 or 5 when the event started.
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    bcvaporbcvapor Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users Posts: 285 Bounty Hunter
    edited June 2013
    It was well established in the case of Truth Vs. Tooltip that the supposed 60% chance at a fuse is really more like 30-40%.

    All opinion to the contrary is simply lobbyist propaganda.

    Contact your representative now and tell them that we need real Fusing Reform.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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    xellizxelliz Member Posts: 955 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    Don't confuse possibility with probability. That is all.
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    danteichigo23danteichigo23 Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    just ... get ... a ... ****ing ... ward ...
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    g0ld3n4c3g0ld3n4c3 Member Posts: 79 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    let's talk about the 1% success...IT IS AN INSULT to me.
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    mconosrepmconosrep Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    Only tried 4 times so too small a sample to really count. (3 of them were failure though :()
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    bioshrikebioshrike Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,729 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    I've experienced trends of multiple failures in a row, too. The thing is, any string of random numbers will produce a momentary streak, but the overall chance will be true to what's reported. One thing other games do is implement a streakbreaker - strings of failures are un-fun for players, so some devs make it so that, say, a 60% chance of success cannot produce more than 3 failures in a row, (or something similar).
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    kristingravekristingrave Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    I still feel like at the end the percentages don't matter any and it's all about that random number generator. As well as 'luck'. As far as you not getting a stone when it went through, I feel ya man, happens to me at times, due to the buggy UI.
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    yliana1yliana1 Member Posts: 38
    edited June 2013
    If the sucess rate was higher,they would sell less wards... I dont need to explain what that means do i? ^.^
    there is always a catch... They want money after all,so if u dont like the crappy rate,well there look! we got just the item for you in our store! convinience only ofc,we just dont mention that w/o that ward you will be grinding enchants for months to get lucky once (some sort of that kinda thing...)

    Nothing new for f2p games... lame imo,but who am i to judge,if i dont like it there is the door...
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    chronomancerchronomancer Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 1,223
    edited June 2013
    Just discovered something... if you use a ward... if your combine was a success then the ward don't get used up.
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    serpentttserpenttt Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users Posts: 77
    edited June 2013
    chronomancer wrote: »
    Just discovered something... if you use a ward... if your combine was a success then the ward don't get used up.

    It says it only gets used on failure right on it :p
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    kristingravekristingrave Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild Users Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    chronomancer wrote: »
    Just discovered something... if you use a ward... if your combine was a success then the ward don't get used up.

    I hope you are being sarcastic. O.o
    Since it states that on the item lol.
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    wholyhandgrenadewholyhandgrenade Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    bioshrike wrote: »
    I've experienced trends of multiple failures in a row, too. The thing is, any string of random numbers will produce a momentary streak, but the overall chance will be true to what's reported. One thing other games do is implement a streakbreaker - strings of failures are un-fun for players, so some devs make it so that, say, a 60% chance of success cannot produce more than 3 failures in a row, (or something similar).

    three momentary streaks of 1 out of 20 in a row is beyond any reasonable amount of chance, what is it a billion or trillion or so against ever occurring for anyone??? that I can not be awarded a level 5 on a successful upgrade should be an absolute impossibility
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    wholyhandgrenadewholyhandgrenade Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    yliana1 wrote: »
    If the sucess rate was higher,they would sell less wards... I dont need to explain what that means do i? ^.^
    there is always a catch... They want money after all,so if u dont like the crappy rate,well there look! we got just the item for you in our store! convinience only ofc,we just dont mention that w/o that ward you will be grinding enchants for months to get lucky once (some sort of that kinda thing...)

    Nothing new for f2p games... lame imo,but who am i to judge,if i dont like it there is the door...

    I can understand a low success rate, but I can't understand a stated success rate that isn't anything even close to being accurate.
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    dublindandublindan Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 42 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    If you get two failures in a row, I recommend backing out of inventory and then pulling up inventory and doing it again, I have NEVER had a failure after doing that. I don't know if it resets anything, but it always works for me.
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    cloud990plcloud990pl Member Posts: 16 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    bad luck I say. I haven't had slightest problem upgrading savage encht to lv 6 (well it failed once on lv 4).
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    walk2kwalk2k Member Posts: 928 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    wholyhandgrenade wrote: »
    since when does a 60 percent chance equate to 1 out of 20, followed again by 1 out of 20, followed again by 1 out of 20 ever succeeding ... this is so bad that I filed a ticket upon it, by my count I'm owed quite a lot.. heck the first time I was successful it removed 4 level 4's and failed to even give me the level 5 and I had inventory space open

    MATH HOW DOES IT WORK!
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    healhamstahealhamsta Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 572 Bounty Hunter
    edited June 2013
    bcvapor wrote: »
    It was well established in the case of Truth Vs. Tooltip that the supposed 60% chance at a fuse is really more like 30-40%.

    All opinion to the contrary is simply lobbyist propaganda.

    Contact your representative now and tell them that we need real Fusing Reform.


    bcvapor for president.
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    walk2k wrote: »
    MATH HOW DOES IT WORK!

    I'm not sure...
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    ambisinisterr wrote: »
    I know that it sucks to no longer get gear to sell from the Dungeon Delve chest but it was truly overpowered.
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    soppafinsoppafin Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 5 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    dublindan wrote: »
    If you get two failures in a row, I recommend backing out of inventory and then pulling up inventory and doing it again, I have NEVER had a failure after doing that. I don't know if it resets anything, but it always works for me.

    THANK YOU!

    With this I won't ever have to buy wards!!!!!
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    djarkaandjarkaan Member Posts: 883 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    So if you flip a coin 60 times and only get less then 30 heads you don't have a 50% chance to get it from that coin and that coin is...bugged?
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    lorddevilkunlorddevilkun Member Posts: 60
    edited June 2013
    dublindan wrote: »
    If you get two failures in a row, I recommend backing out of inventory and then pulling up inventory and doing it again, I have NEVER had a failure after doing that. I don't know if it resets anything, but it always works for me.

    Sounds like an exploit- enjoy your ban.
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    abombination247abombination247 Member Posts: 1,279 Bounty Hunter
    edited June 2013
    yea on all savage 4's to 5 I have had to use wards so I don't lose em. cause the % is around 20 its seems like
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    abombination247abombination247 Member Posts: 1,279 Bounty Hunter
    edited June 2013
    lorddevilkun wrote: »
    Sounds like an exploit- enjoy your ban.

    lol ppl that say enjoy your ban are idiots. what he is theorizing is nothing wrong with. and you probably ran to try it lol
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    bcvaporbcvapor Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero Users Posts: 285 Bounty Hunter
    edited June 2013
    What you want is two failures in a row, so you can do the back out of inventory "trick" *wink* and then do your high level fuse because it's a guaranteed success.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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    levander3levander3 Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    IF one more person posts I'm going to freaking lose it. I've had enough of people posting....
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    varsas13varsas13 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    made 3 rank 5 savage enchants, all of which were a success

    RNG is RNG, don't cry about it
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    ultimuslai2013ultimuslai2013 Member Posts: 13 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    djarkaan wrote: »
    So if you flip a coin 60 times and only get less then 30 heads you don't have a 50% chance to get it from that coin and that coin is...bugged?

    This.

    Probability is probability. Random mean random. Even if you get 9 heads out of 10 coin flips in a row, the probability of getting a tail is STILL 50%.
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    emraheseremraheser Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited June 2013
    This.

    Probability is probability. Random mean random. Even if you get 9 heads out of 10 coin flips in a row, the probability of getting a tail is STILL 50%.

    u right.
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    vientorvientor Member, Neverwinter Beta Users Posts: 80
    edited June 2013
    emraheser wrote: »
    This.

    Probability is probability. Random mean random. Even if you get 9 heads out of 10 coin flips in a row, the probability of getting a tail is STILL 50%.

    Exactly. There is a big difference between bad luck, and broken. I have had around 15 successes, and 7-8 failures.
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    surfaksurfak Member Posts: 41
    edited June 2013
    Just use Coalescent Wards for each fuse no matter the %.
    Problem solved.
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