Might as well give it up guys. I've seen this discussion in literally hundreds of thousands of permutations over the years, and it always winds up with someone believing that the "Law of Averages" should assure they succeed more often than they did, as you can see by the arguments being presented so far.
Here's the facts: Every time you push the fuse button, you have the given % chance to succeed. I don't care if you push it 1 time, or 1 million times, every roll is the first roll as far as that button is concerned. The law of averages means absolutely nothing, and is often quoted to mean that one should have a better chance every time they push the button than the last time. You can argue this if you like, but do us all a favor, head to Vegas, and drop some money at roulette, and try to tell them that "law of averages says". They'll laugh, as they take your money.
Reading comprehension is essential in a medium that requires reading for communication.
If you can't see the problem with that, you have smoked yourself <font color="orange">HAMSTER</font>.
For extra <font color="orange">HAMSTER</font> that barely does anything? Yea I can't imagine why a F2P game would actually have you jump through hoops if you don't want to pay and support the game. The insanity...
poster makes money by directing eyes to the posting?
I am so confused about what you're trying to say. Guess I'm missing out on money from reddit from all my posts! I'm going not to reply to keep some sanity.
Common sense is hard to come by around here it seems..
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terradraconisMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 17Arc User
Yea its not like you can buy Zen with AD or anything...
390 ad=1 zen
500 zen=5 dollars
390x 160-3,120,000 AD
is the amount of zen needed to get all your wards,
Max AD can refine in 1 day is 24k
With dailys alone, would take over 100 days to grind enough Ad to buy enough wards to get that and this leaves one and only one way to get enough AD to buy this stuff, use the auction house... the problem? you guys are assuming that AD influc will remain the same, or that AD to Zen price will keep reducing... i am just not convinced that the AD sale prices on epics will remain...in fact i am under a sneaking suspicion that crypic is going to put a stop to boe epics entirely.
but you guys can keep touting this whole AD buy everything but i dont buy it... once the economy stablizies people are going to be unable to get enough AD to support basic functions in the game. This is just the way these sorts of games work...they want you to pay cash so they purposely put stuff like this into the game... to force you to pay cash into it.
Good or bad i just do not buy that you can earn enough AD in this game to support yourself...and you are relying on people needing those epics, and not just grinding them on there own... best way is probably selling keys, but even that is only 60k ad a key... and that price has been dropping as well... i dunno guys...i have a hard time believing this spheel...
If you're a super casual player, yes, although not quite a year or two I imagine, but sure, more than one or two months is likely. But then again, you can't expect to get your hands on a super high-end item anytime soon as a super casual player, right?
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tanerasMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero UsersPosts: 0Arc User
What is that bolded line, and what are "all your wards"? Wards help protect the loss of enchants when combining, while they certainly help you don't *need* them.
What is that bolded line, and what are "all your wards"? Wards help protect the loss of enchants when combining, while they certainly help you don't *need* them.
This is you trying to justify a 200 dollar purchase.
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terradraconisMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian Users, Neverwinter Knight of the Feywild UsersPosts: 17Arc User
is the amount of zen needed to get all your wards,
Max AD can refine in 1 day is 24k
be smart and make diamonds on the AH. You can you know and a fair number. Also currently wards are selling for about 90K AD which means you only need 90,000 X 16 or 1,440,000 AD.
Mind you I don't expect the wards to stay that low once people realize they can buy them cheaply on the AH.
For extra <font color="orange">HAMSTER</font> that barely does anything? Yea I can't imagine why a F2P game would actually have you jump through hoops if you don't want to pay and support the game. The insanity...
What would take 2-3 months to buy, and what are you doing those 2-3 months? Just praying for rough diamonds?
Run dungeons, sell gear on the AH. It'll go faster.
or i can just spend $10 to get 1000 zen and convert them into ~380k ads and start flipping the ah. it would go way faster.
and of course i'm talkin about the end game stuff like 1m ad for an enchantment or a piece of gear. simply ridiculous.
If you're a super casual player, yes, although not quite a year or two I imagine, but sure, more than one or two months is likely. But then again, you can't expect to get your hands on a super high-end item anytime soon as a super casual player, right?
No I don't. These Chinese free to play games are over the top with the cash grabs though.
Here's the thing, the game will handle millions of these calculations a day, so lets go with a nice round 1million people fusing enchantments at 20% success rate every day.
Of those 1 million - 200,000 will succeed, 800,000 will fail.
Highly unlikely. You meant meant to add "about", right? About 200,000 will succeed, about 800,000 will fail.
and of course i'm talkin about the end game stuff like 1m ad for an enchantment or a piece of gear. simply ridiculous.
I'm sorry you want the best possible, or close to, gear and enchants within the first 2 weeks of a games release without paying a single dime on the game (assuming you haven't). Heaven forbid the people who helped pay for this free game get a leg up.
I'm sorry you want the best possible, or close to, gear and enchants within the first 2 weeks of a games release without paying a single dime on the game (assuming you haven't). Heaven forbid the people who helped pay for this free game get a leg up.
You deserve it, you paid for it.
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tanerasMember, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Hero UsersPosts: 0Arc User
A founders pack? I got a really good (purple lv 60) main hand dagger for my TF rogue sure. There are still a lot of upgrades I need.
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bioshrikeMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 4,729Arc User
edited May 2013
Serious question here - what kind of sample size would it take to determine if the RNG is "playing fair"?
See, the problem is that most computer games don't do truly random rolling - they base the results off of some pseudo-random algorithm that is "good enough". But, if you have 1000's or millions of rolls going on, that "good enough" may not really be fair. I'd really like to see some data to back up just how fair this RNG is.
I realize most of what we're seeing here is anecdotal evidence, but I myself have lost 3 skill kits in a roll, even though I had a 75% chance of success.
<::::::::::::::)xxxo <::::::::::::::)xxxo <::::::::::::)xxxxxxxx(:::::::::::> oxxx(::::::::::::::> oxxx(::::::::::::::> "Is it better to be feared or respected? I say, is it too much to ask for both?" -Tony Stark Official NW_Legit_Community Forums
Serious question here - what kind of sample size would it take to determine if the RNG is "playing fair"?
See, the problem is that most computer games don't do truly random rolling - they base the results off of some pseudo-random algorithm that is "good enough". But, if you have 1000's or millions of rolls going on, that "good enough" may not really be fair. I'd really like to see some data to back up just how fair this RNG is.
I realize most of what we're seeing here is anecdotal evidence, but I myself have lost 3 skill kits in a roll, even though I had a 75% chance of success.
The pseudo random number generators used for these games are good enough that no player is going to be able to tell the difference. We're talking tens or hundreds of thousands of trials in order to detect even a tiny variation.
BTW, I've failed five skill kits in a row. I'm not fazed. I understand how probability works. Failing three skill kits in a row is not even unusual. Play a couple of hours and it'll happen to you.
"Participation in PVP-related activities is so low on an hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly basis that we could in fact just completely take it out of STO and it would not impact the overall number of people [who] log in to the game and play in any significant way." -Gozer, Cryptic PvP Dev
Alternatively, instead of farming AD to buy zen to buy those scrolls, you can just farm the enchantments/runes, and accept the chance of failure and loss of rune.
Comments
Yea its not like you can buy Zen with AD or anything...
Here's the facts: Every time you push the fuse button, you have the given % chance to succeed. I don't care if you push it 1 time, or 1 million times, every roll is the first roll as far as that button is concerned. The law of averages means absolutely nothing, and is often quoted to mean that one should have a better chance every time they push the button than the last time. You can argue this if you like, but do us all a favor, head to Vegas, and drop some money at roulette, and try to tell them that "law of averages says". They'll laugh, as they take your money.
ya good luck farming those ads to convert them into zen...it will take you like 2-3 months lol.
better just getting a job than trying to grind thru dat <font color="orange">HAMSTER</font>.
Month or two? More likely year or two.
Oh look a Reddit article. And that means your trying to make money by directing people to it?
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
For extra <font color="orange">HAMSTER</font> that barely does anything? Yea I can't imagine why a F2P game would actually have you jump through hoops if you don't want to pay and support the game. The insanity...
What would take 2-3 months to buy, and what are you doing those 2-3 months? Just praying for rough diamonds?
Run dungeons, sell gear on the AH. It'll go faster.
It's not like there's a 1% chance for the reddit article to successfully load, read what you said again and hang your head in regret.
Why would I go to a site where the poster makes money by directing eyes to the posting? If it's really important quote it here.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
I am so confused about what you're trying to say. Guess I'm missing out on money from reddit from all my posts! I'm going not to reply to keep some sanity.
Reddit is a social media site where the articles posted can earn their posters money based on the number of unique visits to the article.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Yeah, going through 17 things before you hit that 1:5 chance is a pain, but but not something so far outside the norm that alarms should be going off.
Come back when you have tried it a few thousand times and tell us how it went.
Of course, no one is going to believe you if their personal experience suggests that there is no issue... :cool:
390 ad=1 zen
500 zen=5 dollars
390x 160-3,120,000 AD
is the amount of zen needed to get all your wards,
Max AD can refine in 1 day is 24k
With dailys alone, would take over 100 days to grind enough Ad to buy enough wards to get that and this leaves one and only one way to get enough AD to buy this stuff, use the auction house... the problem? you guys are assuming that AD influc will remain the same, or that AD to Zen price will keep reducing... i am just not convinced that the AD sale prices on epics will remain...in fact i am under a sneaking suspicion that crypic is going to put a stop to boe epics entirely.
but you guys can keep touting this whole AD buy everything but i dont buy it... once the economy stablizies people are going to be unable to get enough AD to support basic functions in the game. This is just the way these sorts of games work...they want you to pay cash so they purposely put stuff like this into the game... to force you to pay cash into it.
Good or bad i just do not buy that you can earn enough AD in this game to support yourself...and you are relying on people needing those epics, and not just grinding them on there own... best way is probably selling keys, but even that is only 60k ad a key... and that price has been dropping as well... i dunno guys...i have a hard time believing this spheel...
He can enjoy my .0000000001 cents.
If you're a super casual player, yes, although not quite a year or two I imagine, but sure, more than one or two months is likely. But then again, you can't expect to get your hands on a super high-end item anytime soon as a super casual player, right?
What is that bolded line, and what are "all your wards"? Wards help protect the loss of enchants when combining, while they certainly help you don't *need* them.
This is you trying to justify a 200 dollar purchase.
be smart and make diamonds on the AH. You can you know and a fair number. Also currently wards are selling for about 90K AD which means you only need 90,000 X 16 or 1,440,000 AD.
Mind you I don't expect the wards to stay that low once people realize they can buy them cheaply on the AH.
[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
or i can just spend $10 to get 1000 zen and convert them into ~380k ads and start flipping the ah. it would go way faster.
and of course i'm talkin about the end game stuff like 1m ad for an enchantment or a piece of gear. simply ridiculous.
No I don't. These Chinese free to play games are over the top with the cash grabs though.
Highly unlikely. You meant meant to add "about", right? About 200,000 will succeed, about 800,000 will fail.
I don't even have a reddit account and in all honesty, that article is the only thing I've ever even read on reddit.
But people do need to see it, cause this game's a straight up scam.
I'm sorry you want the best possible, or close to, gear and enchants within the first 2 weeks of a games release without paying a single dime on the game (assuming you haven't). Heaven forbid the people who helped pay for this free game get a leg up.
You deserve it, you paid for it.
A founders pack? I got a really good (purple lv 60) main hand dagger for my TF rogue sure. There are still a lot of upgrades I need.
See, the problem is that most computer games don't do truly random rolling - they base the results off of some pseudo-random algorithm that is "good enough". But, if you have 1000's or millions of rolls going on, that "good enough" may not really be fair. I'd really like to see some data to back up just how fair this RNG is.
I realize most of what we're seeing here is anecdotal evidence, but I myself have lost 3 skill kits in a roll, even though I had a 75% chance of success.
"Is it better to be feared or respected? I say, is it too much to ask for both?" -Tony Stark
Official NW_Legit_Community Forums
Those bios are outdated. Have some steam guides:
*CYBERMIND!*
*FIRE AND NOT FIRE*
The pseudo random number generators used for these games are good enough that no player is going to be able to tell the difference. We're talking tens or hundreds of thousands of trials in order to detect even a tiny variation.
BTW, I've failed five skill kits in a row. I'm not fazed. I understand how probability works. Failing three skill kits in a row is not even unusual. Play a couple of hours and it'll happen to you.
I do believe that failing five 75% skill checks in a row is still seven and a half times more likely than scoring a Yahtzee on the first throw.
It is always 20%. Your odds don't increase the number of times you do it.
This is an open beta. Start treating it like one.