Astral (Diamond) Lockbox

sandukutupu · August 2020

There is a PS4 discussion on this here. It was started as a list of complaints... I am not complaining.

Today I bought five of these for 85,000 AD each... ?HOW? Auction House is selling them as low as 85K each. Now I want to thank the VIP members who bought these at 75K and posted them at 85K. They are only getting 1.5K AD profit per box and this is very generous of them to pass a discount on to non-VIP members.

Did I open them? Oh Hell no! The RNG in this game is deplorable. I mean, I am tempted, because they contain a slim chance at a random legendary mount and that would be potentially millions. Even an epic mount or almost any epic companion could be worth more than the box itself. However I can only imagine, they put the odds of winning somewhat higher than the state lottery.

The price seems fair, a keyless loot box for 100K ( 75K VIP members) this converts at 750:1 to 133 or 100 zen. It literally is a fair trade for a key without the waiting for conversion. Unless I am misinformed, you still have a 35 day wait to convert the AD to Zen. All anyone need do is pull the AD out of the backlog and buy the keyless lockbox. This makes sense to me, if you are just opening loot boxes.

Will I open them? Probably not, since the item is no longer available after August 6th, I will bank it and see if it doubles or triples in value. Worse case scenario, they drop new ones in the store before I sell mine and my five boxes get devalued. If they don't sell by October, they will be placed in my Barovia Bash Halloween Costume Contest.

Now all we need is one of those videos of someone opening thousands of them on YouTube.

autumnwitch · August 2020

sandukutupu said:
There is a PS4 discussion on this here. It was started as a list of complaints... I am not complaining.

Today I bought five of these for 85,000 AD each... ?HOW? Auction House is selling them as low as 85K each. Now I want to thank the VIP members who bought these at 75K and posted them at 85K. They are only getting 1.5K AD profit per box and this is very generous of them to pass a discount on to non-VIP members.

Did I open them? Oh Hell no! The RNG in this game is deplorable. I mean, I am tempted, because they contain a slim chance at a random legendary mount and that would be potentially millions. Even an epic mount or almost any epic companion could be worth more than the box itself. However I can only imagine, they put the odds of winning somewhat higher than the state lottery.

The price seems fair, a keyless loot box for 100K ( 75K VIP members) this converts at 750:1 to 133 or 100 zen. It literally is a fair trade for a key without the waiting for conversion. Unless I am misinformed, you still have a 35 day wait to convert the AD to Zen. All anyone need do is pull the AD out of the backlog and buy the keyless lockbox. This makes sense to me, if you are just opening loot boxes.

Will I open them? Probably not, since the item is no longer available after August 6th, I will bank it and see if it doubles or triples in value. Worse case scenario, they drop new ones in the store before I sell mine and my five boxes get devalued. If they don't sell by October, they will be placed in my Barovia Bash Halloween Costume Contest.

Now all we need is one of those videos of someone opening thousands of them on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/Fi7Bx70wZ4s

sandukutupu · August 2020

@autumnwitch I liked Northside's circus music better than Rainer's, the video I linked he only opened 2K but the music was most entertaining. Whatever that song was by the boy band, Rainer needs to buy some new CD's. Also Rainer is really looking at resale of the merchandise from the loot box. I am pretty sure that is very standard drop rates for most loot boxes. Remember that Charlie Bucket got his golden ticket on just three Wonka bars out of billions! So anyone could just as easy buy 5 or 5,000 and win something they want to keep and use.

autumnwitch · August 2020

sandukutupu said:
@autumnwitch I liked Northside's circus music better than Rainer's, the video I linked he only opened 2K but the music was most entertaining. Whatever that song was by the boy band, Rainer needs to buy some new CD's. Also Rainer is really looking at resale of the merchandise from the loot box. I am pretty sure that is very standard drop rates for most loot boxes. Remember that Charlie Bucket got his golden ticket on just three Wonka bars out of billions! So anyone could just as easy buy 5 or 5,000 and win something they want to keep and use.

I suspect Rainer is using royalty free music and doesn't want to be hit with a DMCA notification. And in these things being entertained is not as important as being informed IMO.

sandukutupu · August 2020

You are correct, it is not like he could play Bonjovi.

rainer · August 2020

I actually have a license for the music (check description), and personal taste will always make one person like something more than something else

I liked this song so I took it

But the music isn't really the point of the video - it's just 3:30 minutes.

sandukutupu · August 2020

rainer#8575 said:
I actually have a license for the music (check description), and personal taste will always make one person like something more than something else I liked this song so I took it

But the music isn't really the point of the video - it's just 3:30 minutes.

But Northside had the popcorn circus music going while opening his up! I thought "Living on a Prayer" kind of fits when opening any loot box.

But you guys do great videos, thanks for the stats!

rainer · August 2020

Living on a prayer sadly does not fall under my license, but ill try to find some religious music for the next opening video

greywynd · August 2020

Hallelujah...

plasticbat · August 2020

greywynd said:
Hallelujah...

Pentatonix version. I love that song.

sandukutupu · August 2020

Notice: I see some more loot boxes for as little as 84,500 AD in the AH. While I love the fact VIP members are caring and sharing, you really shouldn't cut out all of your profit. Anything less than 83,333 will result in a net loss, please keep that in mind when posting them in the AH.

Someone was debating the "value" of this item with me, while I was cleaning out Well of Dragons today. They called the Astral Lockbox a complete waste to open. I never said, you should open them, I encourage players to buy them. As with all limited time items, they will increase in value over time. I suspect @rainer#8575 is not psychic, or he would be Bill Gates rich with all the lottery tickets he could win. In this video he states the total of items at the current prices. Prices always go up on many items within the limits of the loot box irregardless of how useful anyone believes it to be. We know the enchantments will always be there, but the mounts and companions tend to fluctuate in price.

To illustrate my point, we all know that some mounts, augments, and companions are completely useless when they first appear in the game. If the item gets discontinued, such as the Cleric Disciple, a common companion that could be purchased from the Emporium, the item becomes collector items. However she was replaced by the Apprentice Healer instead. With nothing special about this companion, the value rose up in the AH to millions of AD.

On a smaller scale, during the Chinese New Year event 2020 (year of the rat), the augment Rat Pup was virtually given to the players for lighting fireworks. The players sold them dirt cheap in the AH during the event. They were calling it a "trash companion" and "garbage augment". I held on to mine and sold the last 4 this week for 277,777 AD each clearing 1 million AD profit on this so-called unwanted item.

I agree with Rainer 100%, it is not worth it to open the Astral Lockbox. Buy them up, bank them, and then wait, but don't open them.

plasticbat · August 2020

sandukutupu said:
Notice: I see some more loot boxes for as little as 84,500 AD in the AH. While I love the fact VIP members are caring and sharing, you really shouldn't cut out all of your profit. Anything less than 83,333 will result in a net loss, please keep that in mind when posting them in the AH.

IMO,I don't think they are "caring and sharing". It is the cut-throat business make them to have only slim margin.

mentinmindmaker · August 2020

We are currently not able to put lockbox keys on AH. Tradeable keys were removed a few years back when they developed as an unofficial currency for trading items, bypassing the AH tax.

The Astral lockboxes give us a way to put lockbox opening on AH again. While it is unlikely they will develop into a currency, it will be interesting to see how much value they will gain. The price growth on Astral lockboxes however should be constrained by two factors:
* You can always use the same amount of money to buy a key off the Zen store - just needs some patience with the ZAX
* Opening lockboxes is a loss by itself - you do it to gamble, not to on average make money

sandukutupu · August 2020

plasticbat said:

sandukutupu said:
Notice: I see some more loot boxes for as little as 84,500 AD in the AH. While I love the fact VIP members are caring and sharing, you really shouldn't cut out all of your profit. Anything less than 83,333 will result in a net loss, please keep that in mind when posting them in the AH.
IMO,I don't think they are "caring and sharing". It is the cut-throat business make them to have only slim margin.

If this is true, they best go back to school or take a crash course in economics. To explain; Buying up 100 items at 75,000 comes to a net investment of 7,500,000. Selling in bulk or individually costs 10% (VIP only negates the posting fee) 7,500,000 divide by 0.9 = 8,333,333 is the break even point, were you get only your investment back. The individual selling for as low as 8,500,000 is not making 1 million, they clear 150,000 if and when all of them sell. There are much less costly ways to make 150,000 AD. Meanwhile the long term investor can buy as little as 10 at 75,000 and just wait for the item to age like wine. The only reason I can see for selling them now is purely altruistic reasons or the seller is bad at math.

I recall questioning my guild leader about them setting aside an entire pane in the guild bank for lock boxes. He started this years ago, now there are literally tons of old lock boxes in the bank. As I collected the lock boxes, I was vending them for the 8 copper. Some of those boxes are worth a lot of AD now. I know he told me he spend $200 on key bundles and opened a mess of them back in July. I am not surprised, he is an adult who also gambles at the casino, that is his idea of fun.

stmni · August 2020

sandukutupu said:

rainer#8575 said:
I actually have a license for the music (check description), and personal taste will always make one person like something more than something else I liked this song so I took it

But the music isn't really the point of the video - it's just 3:30 minutes.
But Northside had the popcorn circus music going while opening his up! I thought "Living on a Prayer" kind of fits when opening any loot box. But you guys do great videos, thanks for the stats!

It`s actually music we used in Map video and some others, it`s from the avernus car radio. Not that it matters but hey, there. North.

plasticbat · August 2020

sandukutupu said:

plasticbat said:

sandukutupu said:
Notice: I see some more loot boxes for as little as 84,500 AD in the AH. While I love the fact VIP members are caring and sharing, you really shouldn't cut out all of your profit. Anything less than 83,333 will result in a net loss, please keep that in mind when posting them in the AH.
IMO,I don't think they are "caring and sharing". It is the cut-throat business make them to have only slim margin.
If this is true, they best go back to school or take a crash course in economics. To explain; Buying up 100 items at 75,000 comes to a net investment of 7,500,000. Selling in bulk or individually costs 10% (VIP only negates the posting fee) 7,500,000 divide by 0.9 = 8,333,333 is the break even point, were you get only your investment back. The individual selling for as low as 8,500,000 is not making 1 million, they clear 150,000 if and when all of them sell. There are much less costly ways to make 150,000 AD. Meanwhile the long term investor can buy as little as 10 at 75,000 and just wait for the item to age like wine. The only reason I can see for selling them now is purely altruistic reasons or the seller is bad at math.

I recall questioning my guild leader about them setting aside an entire pane in the guild bank for lock boxes. He started this years ago, now there are literally tons of old lock boxes in the bank. As I collected the lock boxes, I was vending them for the 8 copper. Some of those boxes are worth a lot of AD now. I know he told me he spend $200 on key bundles and opened a mess of them back in July. I am not surprised, he is an adult who also gambles at the casino, that is his idea of fun.

When they bought it, they did not mean to sell it for that price. However, when the item is not sold fast enough and was undercut by others, people can be panic and want to sell it out before it actually lose value. Nobody can predict the future. The price may go up and it may go down. Some can afford to hold on to the item. Some cannot. It is not about the price you want to sell. It is about the price buyers want to buy. If nobody buys, you lose regardless what the cost is.

I have every single lockbox I have collected since mod 3 and I pick up everything on the ground. I have a mule character dedicated to hold the lockbox. I estimate I have about 50 stacks of 999 of lockbox. I assign one slot in the shared bank for the current lockbox. Whichever character pick up the lockbox will eventually be moved to that slot during 'housekeeping' until it reaches 999 or there is a newer lockbox. Then, that stack will be relocated to the dedicated lockbox character.

adinosii · August 2020

sandukutupu said:
As I collected the lock boxes, I was vending them for the 8 copper. Some of those boxes are worth a lot of AD now.

Just wondering....did you check which lockboxes are considered most valuable? Yeah, I can check it myself....just wanted to save a bit of time if someone else already has a list.

Unknown · August 2020

This content has been removed.

plasticbat · August 2020

adinosii said:

sandukutupu said:
As I collected the lock boxes, I was vending them for the 8 copper. Some of those boxes are worth a lot of AD now.
Just wondering....did you check which lockboxes are considered most valuable? Yeah, I can check it myself....just wanted to save a bit of time if someone else already has a list.

Valuable because of its average return value?
Valuable because of its AH price?
Or, valuable because of certain rare item within?

adinosii · August 2020

plasticbat said:
Valuable because of its average return value?

Mostlt that, yeah....Just realized my VIP keys have been piling up, and I have 349 now....just wondering which lockmox to use them on.

I was also wondering just which lockboxes sell for most....I have hundreds, even a couple of thousands of most of them, and why sot sell those which are worth something....maybe Iðll just check the AH for all of them and make a list.

plasticbat · August 2020

adinosii said:

plasticbat said:
Valuable because of its average return value?
Mostlt that, yeah....Just realized my VIP keys have been piling up, and I have 349 now....just wondering which lockmox to use them on.

I was also wondering just which lockboxes sell for most....I have hundreds, even a couple of thousands of most of them, and why sot sell those which are worth something....maybe Iðll just check the AH for all of them and make a list.

For average return, last time I checked was: Glorious Resurgence and Merchant Prince. However, with the drop of Legendary mount price and the introduction of account wide legendary mount, I personally don't like any of them. I am saving my keys (as always the same excuse to cover my laziness) and hope there will be something better. I have over 750 VIP lockbox and counting.

greywynd · August 2020

An unused key is a useless key.

rev · August 2020

people who are selling them on ah were the ones that bought and then realised they were normal lockboxes with normal drop rates, in my opinion they are worst than the normal ones, because you don't even know what mounts or companions you can drop from it

this mod has been a rgn fest

plasticbat · August 2020

rev#7881 said:
people who are selling them on ah were the ones that bought and then realised they were normal lockboxes with normal drop rates, in my opinion they are worst than the normal ones, because you don't even know what mounts or companions you can drop from it

this mod has been a rgn fest

Actually, you do know what they could be.

https://www.arcgames.com/en/games/neverwinter/news/detail/11476713-limited-time-astral-lockbox!

The Legendary Mount that can drop includes:

Legendary Hellfire Engine
Swift Golden Lion
Legendary Carpet of Flying
Legendary Triceratops
Legendary Volcanic Flail Snail

Note: Legendary Mounts are account-wide unlock.

The random Epic Mount drop includes the Epic version of the above listed mounts.

The Epic Companion that can drop includes:

Savage Allosaur
Bulette Pup
Deepcrow Hatchling
Dancing Shield
Phoera
Razorwood

sandukutupu · August 2020

I only have a total of 10 banked. All investments are risks, but (in my opinion) only when real money is at stake. Since 100% of my AD comes from playing a free game, playing the fictional stock market (auction house), and questing, I don't see this as any kind of real loss should they drop to 45K. They will just become free gifts at the Halloween Party. If I were guild building, I could hand these out to new members that help the most with the guild. This would be super awesome, if they even won an epic mount.

When any new item comes out, I wait before making the purchase. I could see someone might jump on this item right away without thinking. Then they hear the bad reviews and think, I better sell those ASAP! Panic buying and selling is not good habits in games or real life. I guess they didn't realize this would fail to be an AD sink, if people can resell the contents for more?

I am not into opening loot boxes on any game. I do play at the casino in real life, I only go once or twice a year. I have friends who visit our two closest casinos in 1 night every weekend. My sister and her hubby take a bus ride to the upper peninsula, just to play at a casino up there. I know some players will dispute what gambling is, but Michigan has a Gaming Commission. By their standards, you can play Monopoly and be considered gambling. Everyone since they were kids, playing games like Go Fish, have always liked winning at games and not one of us enjoys losing.

Both videos were great, they gave us good stats. Rainer's was most precise with 10,000 opened. He found 17 leg mounts in the 10K (0.0017%) while Northside found 2 in 2K (0.001%). I don't care for the YouTuber who only shouted, it was a scam and not to buy it, so I will not promote his channel here. He also went off on the Summer Fest claiming they nerfed the pinata. You cannot nerf a pinata! Cryptic, in all reality, repaired a long time exploit. I think his video pretty much screams he is an XB1 exploiter. Meanwhile I enjoy all of Rainer's and Northside's content and encourage you to subscribe to their channels.

plasticbat · August 2020

sandukutupu said:

When any new item comes out, I wait before making the purchase. I could see someone might jump on this item right away without thinking. Then they hear the bad reviews and think, I better sell those ASAP! Panic buying and selling is not good habits in games or real life. I guess they didn't realize this would fail to be an AD sink, if people can resell the contents for more?

It looks like it does not sell well in AH or sell at all.
The person who has posted more than 20 lockbox with individual price 84.9K yesterday had re-posted all of them to 84.3K today (less than 1K profit) after someone posted a bunch of 84.4K.

sandukutupu · August 2020

plasticbat said:

sandukutupu said:

When any new item comes out, I wait before making the purchase. I could see someone might jump on this item right away without thinking. Then they hear the bad reviews and think, I better sell those ASAP! Panic buying and selling is not good habits in games or real life. I guess they didn't realize this would fail to be an AD sink, if people can resell the contents for more?
It looks like it does not sell well in AH or sell at all.
The person who has posted more than 20 lockbox with individual price 84.9K yesterday had re-posted all of them to 84.3K today (less than 1K profit) after someone posted a bunch of 84.4K.

I might buy some more, if they keep dropping in price. I seriously doubt they are going to sell for any less than 83,333. Once again, I don't plan to open them or resell the contents. This made me remember back in 2018, Chult had a lock box that dropped "Adventurer Pack" at a rate around 30%. The Adventurers Pack was selling for very little in the AH. I bought a ton of them and banked them. I did open those and made a profit off the Keys, Scrolls of Mass Life, and Scroll of Life resale value. At one point, I was buying the pack at 4K each and the key inside sold for 5K each. A year later all the keys from those packs were transformed into re-roll tokens. I am glad I sold them while they were keys!

zimxero · August 2020

plasticbat said:

adinosii said:

plasticbat said:
Valuable because of its average return value?
Mostlt that, yeah....Just realized my VIP keys have been piling up, and I have 349 now....just wondering which lockmox to use them on.

I was also wondering just which lockboxes sell for most....I have hundreds, even a couple of thousands of most of them, and why sot sell those which are worth something....maybe Iðll just check the AH for all of them and make a list.

For average return, last time I checked was: Glorious Resurgence and Merchant Prince. However, with the drop of Legendary mount price and the introduction of account wide legendary mount, I personally don't like any of them. I am saving my keys (as always the same excuse to cover my laziness) and hope there will be something better. I have over 750 VIP lockbox and counting.

Glorious Resurgence took a big hit in relative value when mounts went Account-wide but it's did not. At the same time though, some of the sub-boxes have gone up in value. Each Tarmalune is worth about 1,750 AD on the market by selling Healing Stones purchased with them. Every pack contains 1-20 Tarmalunes (about 12,000 AD worth) plus one of the following:

7,000,000 AD - Glorious Resurgence Legendary Pack
1,250,000 AD - Glorious Resurgence Epic Companion Pack
350,000 AD - Glorious Resurgence Epic Mounts Pack
40,000 AD - Glorious Resurgence Epic Artifacts Pack
50,000 AD - Bloodied Companion Equipment Box
20,000 AD - Full Moon Enchantment Pack
20,000 AD - Cursed Artifact Equipment Box
25,000 AD - Darkened Night Stronghold Box
20,000 AD - Howling Adventure Box
50,000 AD - Variety Fashion Pack
1-100 Tarmalues (about 90,000 AD)

Together, this places each Glorious Resurgence Pack at 45,000 AD base value, which does not include the added value from occasional Tarmalune Jackpots, Epic, or Legendary packs.

wintersmoke · August 2020

sandukutupu said:

plasticbat said:

sandukutupu said:

When any new item comes out, I wait before making the purchase. I could see someone might jump on this item right away without thinking. Then they hear the bad reviews and think, I better sell those ASAP! Panic buying and selling is not good habits in games or real life. I guess they didn't realize this would fail to be an AD sink, if people can resell the contents for more?
It looks like it does not sell well in AH or sell at all.
The person who has posted more than 20 lockbox with individual price 84.9K yesterday had re-posted all of them to 84.3K today (less than 1K profit) after someone posted a bunch of 84.4K.
I might buy some more, if they keep dropping in price. I seriously doubt they are going to sell for any less than 83,333. Once again, I don't plan to open them or resell the contents. This made me remember back in 2018, Chult had a lock box that dropped "Adventurer Pack" at a rate around 30%. The Adventurers Pack was selling for very little in the AH. I bought a ton of them and banked them. I did open those and made a profit off the Keys, Scrolls of Mass Life, and Scroll of Life resale value. At one point, I was buying the pack at 4K each and the key inside sold for 5K each. A year later all the keys from those packs were transformed into re-roll tokens. I am glad I sold them while they were keys!

Don't go look up what those packs sell for today...

sandukutupu · August 2020

wintersmoke said:

sandukutupu said:

plasticbat said:

sandukutupu said:

When any new item comes out, I wait before making the purchase. I could see someone might jump on this item right away without thinking. Then they hear the bad reviews and think, I better sell those ASAP! Panic buying and selling is not good habits in games or real life. I guess they didn't realize this would fail to be an AD sink, if people can resell the contents for more?
It looks like it does not sell well in AH or sell at all.
The person who has posted more than 20 lockbox with individual price 84.9K yesterday had re-posted all of them to 84.3K today (less than 1K profit) after someone posted a bunch of 84.4K.
I might buy some more, if they keep dropping in price. I seriously doubt they are going to sell for any less than 83,333. Once again, I don't plan to open them or resell the contents. This made me remember back in 2018, Chult had a lock box that dropped "Adventurer Pack" at a rate around 30%. The Adventurers Pack was selling for very little in the AH. I bought a ton of them and banked them. I did open those and made a profit off the Keys, Scrolls of Mass Life, and Scroll of Life resale value. At one point, I was buying the pack at 4K each and the key inside sold for 5K each. A year later all the keys from those packs were transformed into re-roll tokens. I am glad I sold them while they were keys!
Don't go look up what those packs sell for today...

Yes, I do keep an eye on AH prices, the last time I looked they jumped to 14K each, mainly due to the jump in anything health related. They tend to drop the Greater Stone of Healing. Stones, back 2 years ago, I could buy for less the 50K have gone up to 450K. I still have some GSH banked for a rainy day, I might should sell them soon. I only use the ones BtA. The rest of the time, I just swill down radiant potions. I imagine the pendulum of healing could swing back the other direction soon and people will stop paying top dollar for them.

EDIT: August 6th, 4 hours after the close of this event lockbox, posted prices are between 125,000 to 144,444 AD each for these items. This will just go up and down for awhile and then, consumers will decide a real value sometime in September.

Astral (Diamond) Lockbox

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