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Ultimate drop rate

maruda#1373 maruda Member Posts: 168 Arc User
It was supposed to be a bigger chance for ultimate stones.
On the first event with double stones 1/40 tong's. On the second event with double stones 1/50 tong's. At the current 1/60, the chances of getting the ultimate stonse's have increased in an interesting way.
From the beginning I made tonga over 400 times and I got only 12 stones. I need about 90, so +/- for 3 years I'll get them if the game still exists.

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    litaaerslitaaers Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 871 Arc User
    If you are referring to 2x enchants, it is not the CHANCE to get them thats doubled, only the result IF you get them.
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    maruda#1373 maruda Member Posts: 168 Arc User
    You did not understand what I wrote, maybe because my English is not very good.
    I meant that 4 months ago it was about 50% more likely than now.
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    mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,490 Arc User
    The results from one person are too few to have any statistical significance.

    But yes, rare stuff.
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    dragonsbane3dragonsbane3 Member Posts: 190 Arc User
    During the first double enchant weekend after they released the Ultimate stones, I ran 78 ToNG runs and got 0 Ultimate drops. I also opened 100 Lost artifact packs and got 0 Ultimate's, I got so frustrated in that some of the people that I was farming with where getting stones to drop every 7-10 runs but I was seeing nothing at all.. The drop rates were way to low and I decided that I would take a break from the game.

    I came back to the game a week go. Since coming back I have ran a total of 34 ToNGS. I have still not got a single Ultimate stone to drop in there.... However I did open up 54 Lost artifact packs on Thursday and got 1 set of Ultimates out of those.

    With the amount we need to max out our enchants the drop rate is horrible. I will be running 15+ Tong runs each day while this double event is going on. If by the end I still do not get some to drop then I will be done with the game compeltely. No point in wasting time in this game if the RNG of the only thing I need to get an ugprade with is .00000001%
    "The Sweet Ain't As Sweet Without The Sour!"
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    maruda#1373 maruda Member Posts: 168 Arc User
    I know people who get the ultimate stone's tonga from every third. And this is not a one-time feat, but a systematic drop. You will get 10 stones for 1000 boxes, he will get 300. In my opinion this is too big a difference. Everyone has individual chances to drop?
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    qexoticqexotic Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 841 Arc User

    The results from one person are too few to have any statistical significance.

    But yes, rare stuff.

    Probably true...if you are a statistician. However, the only results that are of significance to an individual player are the ones that they see as a direct result of their own participation in the game. To an individual player, these are the only statistics that matter :)

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    lardesonlardeson Member Posts: 374 Arc User

    I know people who get the ultimate stone's tonga from every third. And this is not a one-time feat, but a systematic drop. You will get 10 stones for 1000 boxes, he will get 300. In my opinion this is too big a difference. Everyone has individual chances to drop?

    Ikr, its very unfair how loot works, its not gnna change, its been there since the beginning with bunch of complains, no one can understand how 2 ppl do 100 runs together, 1 gets 20 and other gets 2, yes, it makes no sense, with mod13 they slightly increased the drop rate, at least thats what they stated, But that doesn't change anything Rng is still there, its either u get 12 a day or u get 0, thats sadly how it is right now, i dont bother much tbh, i just play the game as my pace, if it drops fine, if not, then cant be helped. but cheer up, cradle will be alot shorter than tong and i've heard positive feedbacks from friends so far with drops there.
    Lardeson CW not Mage. Where's my fireball and my thunderbolt?
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    mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,490 Arc User
    edited March 2018
    qexotic said:

    The results from one person are too few to have any statistical significance.

    But yes, rare stuff.

    Probably true...if you are a statistician. However, the only results that are of significance to an individual player are the ones that they see as a direct result of their own participation in the game. To an individual player, these are the only statistics that matter :)
    Indeed, and that creates some mass injustice in the game when very expensive items are distributed like that,

    I have been opening lockboxes since VIP came. No legendary mount, and hardly any purples.

    Then a friend of mine got a legendary mount in his first month.

    Games probably should consider a different model for distributing the very high-end items than pure random, so there is at least some correlation between effort and result at the individual level.

    Rather than dropping legendary mounts they could for instance drop mount tickets. 100 mount tickets = 1 leg mount. Rather than 0.15% dropchance they would then be 15% dropchance. That would even out the statistical chances and let how many tries you do matter more.

    As it is, with the pure 1-drop random system, I certainly can expect to get the same amount of drops as my friend. In 100 years. :)
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    dragonsbane3dragonsbane3 Member Posts: 190 Arc User
    Update,... So before today I had run 112 ToNG's with 0 Ultimate drops. On the 3rd run today I got a Ultimate to finally drop. So thats 115 runs today with 2 chances in each run. 230 chances with 1 drop... got to love those rates!
    "The Sweet Ain't As Sweet Without The Sour!"
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    marv700#9957 marv700 Member Posts: 135 Arc User

    The results from one person are too few to have any statistical significance.

    But yes, rare stuff.

    If the results for any given person running 400+ tongs haven't appreciably increased, then I'll contend that the supposed increase in the drop rate is inconsequential.
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    klangeddinklangeddin Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 882 Arc User
    edited March 2018
    No disclosure on drop rates, no wonder this type of threads pop up all the time.
    Cryptic could squash them by releasing the drop rates, writing down the percentage in the Chest's UI or in the Collection Window, but they refuse to do so. I suppose they enjoy reading this stuff.

    I got lucky and got 2 ultimate enchanting stones in my only tong run during the 2x refine event, but, as they say... it really doesn't prove anything, except that the chance is higher than 0%, although we didn't need to know that.
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    marv700#9957 marv700 Member Posts: 135 Arc User
    Well, the drop rate for ampules was 100%, but that wasn't high enough to guarantee that you got one. So clearly Cryptic % rates don't mean anything.
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