I spammed through all 38 of my pres wards trying to get a shield up, it was only supposed to be a 10% chance, but in reality it still didn't happen and it is now down to 1.8% chance. This is a repeating issue, and while we all understand there is inherent probabilities, this is stepping into "extremely unlikely to happen" probability. This makes you really frustrated with the game and start to feel like you're trying to bleed us for money to just keep buying more wards. Several of my guild mates have also been seeing this with even higher percentage gear (etc).
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Specifically there is a 1.8% that someone would experience a 38 losses in a row for a 10% chance trial.
and you lost 4 times
that is essentially what happened
pretend you used 40 instead of 38 ..
nothing remarkable here ... moving on
how many times did you get something on your first try and then run to the forums to complain that something was obtained too few attempts and you were too lucky ? -
In this case with a 10% chance, it is:
Try 1, 10% chance.
Try 2, 10% chance.
Try 3, 10% chance.
Try 4, 10% chance.
Try 5, 10% chance.
Try 6, 10% chance.
Try 7, 10% chance.
Try 8, 10% chance.
Try 9, 10% chance.
Try 10, 10% chance.
and so on...
Your previous attempt has absolutely no bearing on your following attempt. You could try a million times and still not get it. You could try once and get it.
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I used to refine in PE and never had a good average on rng but now I always do well, usually in less that 1/3rd of the stated chance (and I do a lot of refining).
Some people will tell you that this is the equivalent of 'wearing your lucky socks' or whatever, but the only concrete thing I can tell you is that I always beat the numbers now.
Xael De Armadeon: DC
Xane De Armadeon: CW
Zen De Armadeon: OP
Zohar De Armadeon: TR
Chrion De Armadeon: SW
Gosti Big Belly: GWF
Barney McRustbucket: GF
Lt. Thackeray: HR
Lucius De Armadeon: BD
Member of Casual Dailies - XBox
Three Rank 10 enchantments, 72 pres wards, each giving a 5% chance for rank 11.
1st one popped at try number 17, good oh... that put me about three ahead of standard.
42 tries later (number 59) the second one popped. Started to get that "here we go again" feeling and began figuring what I had left to sell...
Third one hit three goes later on ward 62, so despite one being almost on the nose, one wildly over and another vastly good luck, the balance was pretty close to spot on.
Last double rp I did two refines at 10% (can't remember exactly what items) first took just shy of fifty wards, second popped on the very next go.
As mentioned above, we often only remember when the RNG goes way past the typical odds, and forget all the times it comes in in our favour amd just a few under.
I think game has a design that every instance in the game has shared pool of RNG rates. I mean most of long time players choose to do their refinement or open their lockboxes in private instances like stronghold PVP tutorial
Xael De Armadeon: DC
Xane De Armadeon: CW
Zen De Armadeon: OP
Zohar De Armadeon: TR
Chrion De Armadeon: SW
Gosti Big Belly: GWF
Barney McRustbucket: GF
Lt. Thackeray: HR
Lucius De Armadeon: BD
Member of Casual Dailies - XBox
*the first rule of the refinement club is that we don't talk about the refinement club
And man, do I refine... must have refined rank 3=>7 and sold about 40 of brutals last time they were cool (no, now they are cheap). In the long run all odds add up as expected. How to avoid frustration? Be prepared to lose an use the law of big numbers.
> I'm embaressed to say that I never go to any special instances, and usually do all of my refinement in PE where mailbox, bank, salvage and shops are all nearby (and yes, I've noticed that some unfortunate developer removed the Sell button from the Trade bar merchant).
>
> And man, do I refine... must have refined rank 3=>7 and sold about 40 of brutals last time they were cool (no, now they are cheap). In the long run all odds add up as expected. How to avoid frustration? Be prepared to lose an use the law of big numbers.
Try it
Though refining is a bit costly to test. How about I refine 2 batches of 100 rank 2 to rank 5 - one in PE and one in an empty instance of ToS or eSoT or IG, and I would also leave that ToS/eSoT/IG instance after a failure. Would that test be conclusive enough for you if I run it?
The next it took 5 times at a 5% chance.
I guess ir's broke both way.
Xael De Armadeon: DC
Xane De Armadeon: CW
Zen De Armadeon: OP
Zohar De Armadeon: TR
Chrion De Armadeon: SW
Gosti Big Belly: GWF
Barney McRustbucket: GF
Lt. Thackeray: HR
Lucius De Armadeon: BD
Member of Casual Dailies - XBox
P.S. What you see is what we, mathematical statisticians, call confirmation bias.
and enough people have experienced this that it's a pretty much agreed upon phenomenon. in most circumstances i'd be thinking that it was probably just in our heads but given this game and it's quirks and it's track records and the way things rarely work as you'd think or as described... I don't think it's on par with believing the aliens walk among us lol
each toss (is not self aware or quantum entangled to subsequent tosses ) it has no way of knowing if its previous toss is meaningful to any statistic/trend either execpt if you are tracking patterns trends or streaks
As I am saving AD for another 50 attempts (I don't like running short of wards all the time) I just wanted to let all of you "Refiner Club folks" known that there is no magic map instance or lucky rabbit foot. It's OK if you believe there is one, some people are just luckier in some things, but in the long run (remember the big number law) the overall stats bring no surprises.