Fell Dragon Lockbox - mathematical odds?

wade8765

Does anyone know what the chances of getting the skeleton steed from the lockbox is? I want to know if it's worth spending a lot of money buying keys or should I just pay the $35 for a mount from the zen store?

Either way it's a gamble but how stacked are the odds?


Thanks

.

awrex1977

I find it highly unlikely those odds will ever be leaked. It would severely impact their biggest cash cow - selling keys.

reallyrecon

You're looking at something like 0.04-0.1%

greatg1ginthesky

reallyrecon wrote: »

You're looking at something like 0.04-0.1%

Where did you pluck that from?

97.8% of percentages are made up apparently.

mrdurva

greatg1ginthesky wrote: »

Where did you pluck that from?

97.8% of percentages are made up apparently.

Didn't you hear? The more you spend on keys the better your chance

kaspa6

its all luck i opend 300/400 and got no mount u can open 1 and get one or u can just spend the 6k zen get the champ of north pack

david44567

Never buy lockboxes its the same and playing at a casino the games are made for you to lose money.
Better off saving diamonds and buying of AH

mrtehpuppy

awrex1977 wrote: »

I find it highly unlikely those odds will ever be leaked. It would severely impact their biggest cash cow - selling keys.

On the contrary, Neverwinter players who are on PC can join the Neverwinter Test server and basically spawn in all of the items they need to test the chances of getting something good.

greatg1ginthesky wrote: »

Where did you pluck that from?

97.8% of percentages are made up apparently.

No, he's actually right. Not just making stuff up.

See for yourself

Your chances of getting the Legendary mount out of a lockbox averages to between 0.02% to 0.5%. Your chances of getting ANYTHING of note is typically about 1%. If you do the math, you'll realize that your best bet is to just let the wallet warriors dump the Zen/Lockbox items into the game and to buy them out of the AH.

reallyrecon

greatg1ginthesky wrote: »

Where did you pluck that from?

97.8% of percentages are made up apparently.

Experience. In most MMOs, the rarest loot drops are set at no higher than 0.1%. Most are set lower to increase their rarity and give players who actually receive one a sense of accomplishment, but historically anything lower than 0.04% odds means nobody will receive one and most people give up trying.

Of course I'm just estimating, but it's an educated and experienced estimate and I'd be very surprised if it's not completely accurate. If you can find the actual drop rate anywhere, feel free, but apparently nobody has taken the time to crunch it out or datamine the loot tables.

Unless you have a better analysis that you'd like to share? I know you want to nitpick and feel like you're smart, but unless you can actually correct me you shouldn't imply that I'm making things up.

greatg1ginthesky

reallyrecon wrote: »

Experience. In most MMOs, the rarest loot drops are set at no higher than 0.1%. Most are set lower to increase their rarity and give players who actually receive one a sense of accomplishment, but historically anything lower than 0.04% odds means nobody will receive one and most people give up trying.

Of course I'm just estimating, but it's an educated and experienced estimate and I'd be very surprised if it's not completely accurate. If you can find the actual drop rate anywhere, feel free, but apparently nobody has taken the time to crunch it out or datamine the loot tables.

Unless you have a better analysis that you'd like to share? I know you want to nitpick and feel like you're smart, but unless you can actually correct me you shouldn't imply that I'm making things up.

I didn't offend you, I don't expect you to offend me. My comment was said in jest, it's not my fault you lack a sense of humour. I merely asked where you plucked your percentage from, and then in 1 comment you said you're estimating, but then in the next you say that unless I can correct you, I shouldn't imply that you are making things up. An estimate, is merely that... an estimate my friend.
Trying to be smart doesn't come into it, answer the question and stop being so defensive.

mungsu

Actually, I think you pretty much break even on the lockboxes, at least for the earlier ones. If you buy the keys on sale, what you get that you don't want can usually be sold for AD that makes up for the Zen to buy the keys. If you consider a Planar Idol to average 45,000 AD, that's equal to 90 Zen.

The Nightmare Lockbox was probably the best, since the mount and companion had the best drop rates compared to later boxes and the enchants are nice to have. Now that HP is so high, the Tenebrous enchant is better than ever.

reallyrecon

greatg1ginthesky wrote: »

I didn't offend you, I don't expect you to offend me. My comment was said in jest, it's not my fault you lack a sense of humour. I merely asked where you plucked your percentage from, and then in 1 comment you said you're estimating, but then in the next you say that unless I can correct you, I shouldn't imply that you are making things up. An estimate, is merely that... an estimate my friend.
Trying to be smart doesn't come into it, answer the question and stop being so defensive.

Every theory is a theory until it's proven. I can't prove it without datamined numbers.

I was right, was I not? I don't speak unless I'm confident I'm speaking the truth, and an estimate is something that isn't just plucked out of thin air or made up, as you said "in jest" (which doesn't translate well through text, sorry). It's an educated approximation based on observations and experience, and I have ample supply of both. I know it's hard to take strangers at their word, I didn't mean to sound harsh.

I'm one of those annoying ******** that's pretty much always right, so... sorry bout it:cool:

silktrocity

depends. If you ONLY want the mount, buy it outright. However if you think you may spend more money on this game in the future, buy the boxes. They have all sorts of goodies. You most likely will NOT get a mount from the boxes. They are less then 1% chance.