How many 7/7's sice you got a coal ward? Data needed, be accurate.

degraafination

Since the changes, 6 total on 11 toons. Not bad.

kalyuxa

I pray with 14 and I didn't get a coal since 5/30. That day I got 2.

kirkcaldy

10 chars, no coals since the change happened.
Has actually put me off, making sure I pray on all every day.
I only really pray on my main now and perhaps my newest alt.
Actually have stopped playing as much now as I used to
and now only play sometimes.
Due to the change to the wards and the general decline in everything else,
that made this a great game at first, I have kind of lost interest in the game now a bit.

.

thuldy

To answer the Original Poster's concern it seemed that 168 Coffers when chasing an approximate drop chance of 3% was too small a sample to get confidence of your results. I had some time yesterday and am tired of doing dailies so here is the result of opening 3075 Coffers on Preview for you.

Starting:


Results:


I was interested to see what the progressive variance of the Coalescent Ward and Preservation Ward drop rate was indicating about the randomness of transferring a couple of hundred items from live to preview and opening them. I have tabulated those particular drops in sequential mini sample batches of 200 to make the math easier for anyone inclined to muck with it.



Batch #
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15


CoalW
11
8
7
1
5
7
3
4
3
8
4
3
5
5
11


PresW
58
55
59
70
60
69
49
63
65
63
63
69
56
78
53



As rng luck would have it, none of my particular sets of 200 experienced a zero result although I do remember that the 600-800 batch only had the single Coalescent Ward appear at around 198. So it could have just as easily been a zero.

Summary: Not much appears to have changed in drop rates and as can be seen from the previous, rng can still deliver dry spells or booms. Here's to hoping that your own luck may be closer to a boom than a bust!

lewstelamon01

2/4 last week, 0/5 this week. Small sample size, to be sure, but it does seem to illustrate that it's hit and miss. But so is rolling a d20.

fdsakhfduewhfiuf

thuldy wrote: »

I had some time yesterday and am tired of doing dailies so here is the result of opening 3075 Coffers on Preview for you.

The 95%-confidence interval is [2.30%; 3.49%], with the mean being 2.89%.

germmaniac

Opened a 100 coffers on preview as well as on live earlier today. The tests were performed approximately 30 minutes apart. About 5 coal wards on live. Not sure if I was favored by RNG but results do seem satisfactory.

j4k06s

Today I opened 1000 on the preview server by making multiple copies and got the following:

31 [Coalescent Ward],
68 [Aquamarine],
307 [Preservation Ward],
594 [Peridot].

In nice round numbers my guess would be that the odds are

3% for Coalescent Ward
6% for Aquamarine
30% for Preservation Ward
60% for Peridot

empalas

Based on the larger runs looks to be around 3%...So that being the case you are looking at 1 every 33 weeks. I have 10 toons so 1 every 3.3 wks for me. And that is about what I am seeing. I don't remember it being any better before.

hudman21

Praying on 10 toons daily since changes made and I have gotten ONE Coalescent ward

masizin777

well, I have been playing since beta but..... the chances of getting a coal ward are less than 3% so I only do it for other rewards.
The tenth time I had 7 coins and got the coffer I received a coal ward. :cool:

khimera906

empalas wrote: »

Based on the larger runs looks to be around 3%...So that being the case you are looking at 1 every 33 weeks. I have 10 toons so 1 every 3.3 wks for me. And that is about what I am seeing. I don't remember it being any better before.

So I had 3 characters before and I got a Coal Ward every 1-2 weeks sometimes even 2 Coal Wards a week. Now I have 9 characters I invoke on and I haven't got a single Coal Ward since the first week after they change the drops. I remember it being better before, in that you actually had a chance, now you might as well call it the Wondrous Peridot Coffer. Thank the Gods we still get P. Wards from time to time.

germmaniac

I understand this thread may be somewhat old (semi-necro or getting there). However, I thought I'd still add the results of the last batch of 100 coffers anyways. All 100 boxes were opened on Live at around the same time. In addition, I opened a stack of 19 Pre Mod 3 boxes (or whenever they added Aquamarines) that I was hanging on to for sentimental reasons . Here are the results.

The older boxes seem better. Such a shame they had to change that

matiagronx

Since beta 1 main character, 18 months = around 80 boxes = not a single coalescent So i stopped praying, gods betrayed me.

ghoulz66

Pretty unlucky. I started around May since Mod3 launch with around 13 characters. Have 10-11 Cwards now but also made a SW since mod4 launch and made 6 more characters last month for a total of 20. Only got like 1 more since making the extra 6.