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Artifact Provisions Pack Artifact Drop Rate
pyciorek
Member Posts: 62
Hi. Does anyone here know what is the approximate drop rate for the artifacts from Artifact Provision Packs?
Today I've opened 3 of them with my wizard and she received the Aurora Catalogue on 3rd try. First 2 gave some trash for refining (green and blue refinement stones). Then I decided that opening 4 more boxes might be a nice idea and they dropped trash.
Basically that 1 artifact paid up for the 7 packs (their price is going somewhere 50-60k AD depending on how many are currently on bid), so I'm not angry, but I'm not sure if it would pay off to keep opening them.
If it turns out that the chance of getting an artifact is 1 to 10, then I guess it's a fair gamble. Does anyone have experience with opening them in large batches and could tell how often did an artifact drop out of them?
Today I've opened 3 of them with my wizard and she received the Aurora Catalogue on 3rd try. First 2 gave some trash for refining (green and blue refinement stones). Then I decided that opening 4 more boxes might be a nice idea and they dropped trash.
Basically that 1 artifact paid up for the 7 packs (their price is going somewhere 50-60k AD depending on how many are currently on bid), so I'm not angry, but I'm not sure if it would pay off to keep opening them.
If it turns out that the chance of getting an artifact is 1 to 10, then I guess it's a fair gamble. Does anyone have experience with opening them in large batches and could tell how often did an artifact drop out of them?
Post edited by pyciorek on
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Do you recall his name?
Currently there is no test about artifacts from Artifact Provisions Pack.
Thanks for that link.
furthermore, the only way to gather this data on the preview shard is to use the test shard in a manner that is not intended. the page on which you copy live characters over to the preview shard specifically states the following:
i would use your best judgment if you choose to utilize the preview shard in this manner.
Making repeated, sequential copies to test RNGs is not a bad idea, really. 'specially since you need to have bought (on the real, live server) a decent representative number of whatever it is you're interested in testing. Which is more monies for cryptic.
you can interpret that however you like. just note that you use the word "simultaneous" and that is not included in the website verbiage. we have no way to stipulate copy names so what you're saying doesn't make sense. all you can do is request to copy the character over to the preview shard. just because the mechanics allow you to do something doesn't necessarily mean you should.
Note "will fail".
Not "is prohibited" or "is against the ToS", but "will fail": this is normally used to describe actual coded mechanics, not guidelines (attempting to ping a computer that isn't connected "will fail", but you are still entirely able to try it).
If you're arguing that copies you've deleted still technically 'exist' somewhere, then this would prevent people ever making more than 1 copy of any toon. Since this is clearly not the case, it seems safe to assume that making sequential copies of a given toon is a-ok, and making simultaneous copies of a given toon (i.e. the character already exists on the PTS) is not "discouraged", but instead simply impossible.
Not sure on the actual drop rates and you can be one of the lucky ones, or unlucky ones that take a while to get another one. In any case it's the house that usually wins, but that doesn't really apply so much since you're talking about a specific item in the lockboxes. I beleive I've got one in 10-20 or so, I can't really remember how many I opened. It was a while ago... I probably got a little unlucky on them though apart from the fact that the artifact I got was the lantern.
There's no unique artifact from CN. The MC one is currently OP particularly in pvp but it'll be betting nerfed soon so will be less cost effective. The vt one has it's fun uses which may be considered bugs, but probably worth selling instead of earning. There will be more artifacts coming, most of which having low drop rates though. You can easily earn 3 if you have 2 icewind qualified toons soon, otherwise you may need to farm it. I do think the dread ring one is too rare, but as for the others I can't really argue against since they are meant to be something hard to get. Whether having them being somewhat easier to obtain being better for the game due to making the newer dungeons worth repeating more idk. Something should be done however, (*cough* remove bop *cough*). I gave up on the arcane coffer one myself though since it just was not worth the effort. That is the one that I'd definitely say should have a higher chance of getting since apart from that, it's a complete waste of time, and also you're limited to one a day unless you buy relics.
While it's not against the terms of service now if people start doing this en mass it surely will be.
Shouldn't people know what they're getting into before hand if they're spending money though? As for making it against ToS. Well if they want a repeat of the inferno screw up I guess they could. Something which was reported on the preview shard and avoidable. Something that was testable. Plus I already have multiple toons without doing that sort of thing that were copied at different periods. Another thing I did was copy over multiple of the same toon to have an ad holder to hold millions of ad if I wanted to check out transmutes sold for ad something that can make it easier to test certain things. I think there should always be a way to know your odds or calculate them if money is concerned otherwise how can you know that you're not getting robbed? With competitions for example you may find out that there's 5 top prizes to be won so your odds will be 1 in how many ever people participate. With lockboxes all you know is the prize and the odds can be literally anything which is what I am completely against when real money is involved.
Copying toons multiple times is what allowed me to easily give (plenty of) feedback on the test shard for mod 3.
If I buy a lockbox knowing that I have a 1/250 chance of getting a mount, then I'm making an informed decision to take those odds. If i don't have any way to access the odds I'm making an uninformed decision where the chances can be 1:1 to 1:practically infinity. That's a massive gap...
2 icewind if you want the class artifact yes. There will be 12 no artifacts (6 class ones). The existing ones will not be useless, you'll just have more options.
imo, it's not the "stupid low drop rates".
It's that 10 separate testers publishing the same data creates 300 rinse-repeaters that then corner the market.. It is too easy to follow Auction Trends as is, exact figures give a ballpark, and eventually, the monitoring entrepreneurs will notice that the drop rate is about to compensate it's way back to setting (i.e from 0.6% or 1.4% back to 1%) and open a stack of boxes or sell keys at a higher price when the system is "paying out" less top prizes.
((((Example:
100 keys on auction.
200 keys in storage.
Server setting is 3% drop rate.
100 keys sold, no admin messages - open 50 probably get 3 grand prizes.
100 keys listed on auction.
50 sell and 4 admin messages pop. relist the remaining 50 for +15% of previous price, as the new box openers will likely lose, losing big will mean more market control when they ragequit the 'box scene'.))))
It's the same thing for the packs, I noticed an upward shift in price on Weaponsmith and Artificer professions packs (10k increase) after 10 boxes were purchased, I made AD from this but was forced out of the market as the price was unsustainable.
It's fair enough to list the "likely chance" to the public, but in this community, you will alienate casuals if you do this, as above.
If people are dedicated enough to spend all their time following virtual market trends rather than...say...murdering dragons and stuff, then they pretty much deserve to be rewarded for that. Publishing estimated drop rates does not affect this in the slightest, and if you're arguing that drop rates are constantly tweaked dynamically for...some reason, then publishing estimated drop rates still doesn't affect this in the slightest.
no, what melodywhr is saying is drop rate theory is based on the probability of a random system even though the random system is unknown. it is unreliable data and there is no guarantee that opening 3000 boxes is going to provide the same results each time. the methodology of probability is based on random number generation but what if the system doesn't use random number generation? again, this is unknown information. the alleged RNG testing that has been done is limited to a single sample batch, not multiple runs.
all i am saying is this information is only theoretical. it is the collection of data based on the theory of how items drop in game. this is not deception, this is internal proprietary programming in an MMORPG.
as for preview testing, in the most recent twitch stream, the question was asked about making certain items available for testing. this will be something they plan on doing but they also need testing through normal progression as well. copying your character 30 times so you can have r10s and perfect enchants on preview doesn't necessarily help in providing feedback from a progressive standpoint.
The only test I know of returned 85/1250. All three artifacts were more or less equally distributed.
If you're arguing that a single batch with a sample size of several thousand isn't good enough, then I very much doubt "multiple runs of the same" would satisfy you.
And that's fine. I also don't think anyone is expecting to get identical results each time they open a batch of 3000, either.
What all these tests do provide is rough estimates (often pretty good rough estimates) from which you can make your own judgements. For example, if 3000 lockboxes produces exactly 3 artifacts, then you don't have nearly enough data to say "drop rate is 0.1%", but you do have more than enough data to say "drop rate is very, very low". Conversely, if you got 1500 peridots from 3000 coffers, you could be pretty safe in estimating that they award peridots 'about 50% of the time'. And that's useful information.
in a video game, the way a loot table is distributed is unknown. you can assume that its probability can be estimated by opening up a sample size of an item over time or in this case, by manipulating the preview shard which is assumed to be a valid representation of the live shard.
off the bat, that's a lot of assumptions to put stock into. and it's the whole point that these percentages are not accurate representations of actual drop rates. by logic, i can already assume without opening a sample of boxes that drop rates on highly sought after items will be lower. after all, anyone could tell you that by playing the lottery, you have a very small chance of winning the jackpot but if you don't play, you cannot possibly win.
all RNG tests show is anecdotal sampling. it is theoretical at best and not a good rough estimate of anything.
Admittedly I think I read something wrong. However I still find it deception to sell an item for cash without knowing the odds of getting a certain item which I find to be exploiting the consumers hope and lack information they purposely withhold so that they can't make an informed decision. Apart from that I'm all for gambling, people should be free to choose whatever they want to do with their money, it's up to them if they want to have self control or waste their life savings if the ignorance is on their part. Still the RNG tests are the best we have. Ideally they'd give us official figures. Of course you can't expect the exact results they get, and with 1 emperor beetle dropped you can't say it's real drop rate, but it does give us an idea of what to expect. Especially when they opened thousands instead of hundreds.
So what I'm saying is: If these tests were so faulty, then people probably wouldn't be able to profit from it. On the other hand if lockboxes were a scam, people wouldn't be mass opening them. After all, great noise, but not really something to worry about regardless the stance you take on these tests.
If you had two lottery tickets you could buy, and one was "jackpot chance 1 in 1000!" and the other was "jackpot chance 1 in 10000!", both with equally appealing jackpots, which would you go for? The chance of winning is low in both, but you can't win if you don't play, right? So there's effectively no difference between the two!
Or is there in fact a 10-fold difference?
That's what I'm talking about here. Even for rare chances, there can be large differences in relative rarity, and this information can be useful.
Sure, you could argue that thinking the test shard will exhibit similar behaviour to the live shard is a big assumption, but hypothesising that it'd have entirely different mechanics for lockboxes seems to me to be even more presumptive. We know that drop rates on the test shard CAN change (and sometimes they forget to change them back before taking things live, as many nightmare mount owners will attest), but even with that caveat, you'll get a useful ballpark figure ('order of magnitude' accuracy is good enough for rare drops), and the drop rates are very unlikely to be LOWER on the test shard, because...why would anyone do that? "We want to test frustration"?
Plus the figures quoted on that page for coffers and casks match very well with my live experience, so I'm inclined to think they might just be onto something.
Thank you very much. :-)
-posting estimates of any kind isn't allowed on the official forums.
-Posting factual data about samples is also not allowed.
Unless you have leaked information about the proprietary system they use, it's not allowed to be posted on the official forums. And I'd imagine that would be removed as well.