Tailoring bug never getting the gemmed items despite max tools

chrishax

Having invested about 3 million in 4 epic crafting tools, I have had a run of 9 items without slots , despite the 60% probability quoted of getting the result. These are the shirts and pants using dragon eggs, and it is now two weeks and I reckon to have lost about 350k further on always getting the low results.

Statistically this doesn't seem probable: 0.4 to the power of 9 which is really really really small. Is anyone else getting this. It really should be only a couple of people on the whole server else its a very damaging bug to people who have putting time money and effort....

Three of the tools are Mithral needles and one is a Mithral Awl.I used to get a few gemmed but about 4 weeks ago it really reduced, and for two weeks nothing despite the 60% probability.

Suggestions?

powereddjinn

This sounds like the same random number generator issue that blights most of the professions, from the chances to get rank 2 or 3 results to kits failing on nodes!

The problem is that everyone sees 60% or 75% and expects 6 out 10 successes or 3 out of 4 on very short runs, while all pseudo-random number generators a very poor on short runs & only tend to average out when the sample size is large (in the millions for many algorithms)

The rolls have no memory, each one is against the 'pass mark' & it is very possible to get a whole long string of fails in a row! So while the odds of a long string of fails is statistically very small, the probability of the next roll being a fail is 40% or 25% it does not matter how many rolls you have made!

But I have to agree that getting long runs of Rank 2 items or 'Kit Broke' in a row is very annoying and soul destroying on those Rank 3 fail results!
Overall the system needs something done about it, as it does seem broken, with the number of times it does produce improbably numbers of successive fails!

The things that come to mind are:

• an extra asset slot
• increasing kit costs (30-50%)
• giving the RNG rolls a memory: make the system appear to work on smaller sample sizes
• adding quests to add skills/improve the chance to craft