Chance to upgrade enchantment is bugged

robai

I understand bad luck, but failing 29 times in a row while having 21% chance is not just bad luck for sure.
Probability of such bad luck is (1-0.21)^29 = 0.00107, so in theory it's possible to have such bad luck, but I really doubt it's the case since it says that guaranteed upgrade 29/150. So if, I understand it right, it's 1/150 chance per attempt, which is 0.67%, not 21%.

If I knew it in advance I would have saved precious 29 Press Wards for other things. Also it sucks to waste 29*20000 = 580000 ref points just because it's was a bug.

plasticbat

I think the bug is showing you 21%.
I don't think mote can be use in a stack. Even if it can be stacked, it should be 5% instead of 21%.
Based on 'guaranteed upgrade' in 150 attempts, 150 means it is doing 1%.
Now, I wonder when you success, will it take all motes away?

You can see I put 5 standard motes (2% vs your primitive mote 1%) and it still shows 2%.

mintmark

Hmmm... I think there are two misunderstandings here

First, the chance of success is 21%. They recently updated the lower rank enchantment upgrades, so I think the base chance from rare to epic is 20%, +1% from the green mote. And you're right, 29 failures is ridiculously unlucky... it's almost like it's not even "rolling the dice" each time.

Second, the guaranteed upgrade figure is a counter, not a probability... so it's 29 out of 150 attempts. It has no effect until it gets to 150, and then it sets the chance of success to 100%.

When it was first introduced the counter was related to the chance of success and it was set to 1.5 times the expected number of attempts... so for 10% chance it was out of 15 (10*1.5), and for 5% chance it was 30 (20*1.5). For 1% (which used to be the chance for the top rank of enchantment upgrades) it was 150 (100*1.5). You can still see this for artifact upgrades.

But after they re-did enchantments, all enchantments had a 0% base chance and you had to use a mote... and they just left the guaranteed upgrade counter at 150. It only ever goes up by 1 as well, which isn't really fair if you are using higher value motes.
And now after re-doing enchantments again, and giving higher chances for lower level upgrades, the counter is still left at 150.

So there are bugs I suppose... the guaranteed upgrade counter doesn't reflect the chance of success, meaning the "streak breaker" is much harsher than it used to be. And whatever might be wrong with the random number generator as well... probably a whole other thread

Also, I don't think there is harm putting a stack of motes there, but I think only one will ever be used (when the upgrade succeeds).

That's how I understand it...

plasticbat

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