What happened here?

kemnimtarkas

Just minutes into the game post-update today and I saw a tidal wave of King of Spines notices from the new lockbox.

I understand if a lot of people are opening boxes, etc that there would be some notices like this - but all at once? Not interspersed with other, lesser loot that is still noteworthy? Just KoS notices - the image grab doesn't do the full list justice, fyi - there were at least 20 different users in a row with these notices in the Social Chat.

kemnimtarkas

Update - I used some of my keys to check this out, got KoS on the 2nd box opened....RNGesus taking a break, or unadvertised gift? I'm fine either way. Thank you Cryptic.

sandukutupu

It is probably like their blog said, better odds to win. I would allow the dust to settle first.

Enjoy your mounts

regenerde

kemnimtarkas said:

Update - I used some of my keys to check this out, got KoS on the 2nd box opened....RNGesus taking a break, or unadvertised gift? I'm fine either way. Thank you Cryptic.

Well, not really, took me 100 keys to get one - and i'm pretty sure there're also a lot of players that spend more keys on that lockbox and have nothing to show for...

So, no, it's not another Stardock Lockbox episode, just enough players opening this new lockbox, and you picking the right moment to open yours.

kharkov58

There have been a lot of keys saved since the lockboxes have been close to worthless for over a year.

bruce55

I had quite a few keys saved and onlyu got a pile of junk basically.

psychoticsatyr

I got mine on key #43, but to get that I had to buy 20 more keys

motu999

The frequency of the KingOfSpine Notices was pretty high, but to be expected.
Chances have increased 3x (according to Cryptic). Before Rainer's test showed the chances to be consistently around 0.15%, now it should be ~0.5%, meaning every ~200 keys we get a Mythic mount.

So based on these estimates, what would one expect to happen when the new lockbox became available?

- Most people saved their keys in the last half year, so it is likely that most long-term VIP players had 200+ keys in their possession.
- We can estimate the number of active long-term players (very roughly) by looking at the RedeemedCitadel Leaderboard, which lists ~10,000 participants in the milestone 1 phase.
- If everyone of these 10,000 has saved 200+ keys, you expect ~10,000 KingOfSpines to drop eventually.
- Assuming these 10,000 are spread out over 24h, you get roughly 500 per hour or ~10 per min.
- In the first 30 min you expect a far larger frequency of drops, because many would have started opening boxes as early as possible. Difficult to estimate how higher the frequency of drops in the first 30 min will be. Maybe an increase by a factor of 10?

Bottom Line: Based on the above very rough estimates, I would have expected ~100 KingOfSpines / min, shortly after the new lockbox became available.

I did not count the messages, but 100 / min during the first 10 min seems to compare well with what I saw ...

adinosii

motu999#9953 said:

I did not count the messages, but 100 / min during the first 10 min seems to compare well with what I saw ...

Yea....pretty much (and I did my part...used 140 of the 380 keys I had. Got one Mythic mount after 23 keys, I think.)

sgtpostal

ya im still on the looper about this new box and im a ps4'mer here an i aint opened a box in over 2yrs and with that and the sales ive piped in on i got like almost 1250 keys lol

ph33rm3

Now if they would just return keys to their former unbound status and let us trade them as a currency again. It could only increase key sales.