For every rank of enchantment below 14, the guaranteed upgrade threshold is 1.5 times the number of attempts one would expect given the odds. For an R14, with a 2% chance, the consistent threshold would be 75 attempts, since at a greater than 1% chance it is obvioulsy not intended to require a coalescent ward. Instead the threshold is 150 attempts, which would be consistent with a 1% upgrade chance. This looks like an oversight, however I fully expect to be told that it is retroactively WAI.
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