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Is the Forgehammer of Gond (tool) broken?
finalalex
Member Posts: 27 Arc User
Hello guys, I'm a masterworker and I'm about to have all the masterwork professions at rank 4, ready to start the final step to reach rank 5.
After having spent many hours crafting resources, I've collected my own statistics about success/failure rate.
As the title of this topic says, I've found an incoherence using the Forgehammer of Gond. The description states that the mythic tool should provide +55% quality, but this is not what I've observed. I perfectly know that success chance and success rate are two completely different things, but when the statistics becomes large enough, their mismatch should not be so large.
Let me explain with some examples.
Case 1
4x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
Tier 3 chance = 60%
My statistics = 56%
In line with expectation? YES
Case 2
3x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
1x Legendary tools (+50% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 70%
My statistics = 68%
In line with expectation? YES
Case 3
2x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
2x Legendary tools (+50% quality each)
Tier 3 chance = 80%
My statistics = 84%
In line with expectation? YES
Case 4
3x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
1x Mythic tool (+55% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 75%
My statistics = 58%
In line with expectation? NO
Case 5
4x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
1x Legendary tools (+50% quality)
1x Mythic tool (+55% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 85%
My statistics = 72%
In line with expectation? NO
Case 6
1x Epic tool (+40% quality)
2x Legendary tools (+50% quality each)
1x Mythic tool (+55% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 95%
My statistics = 80%
In line with expectation? NO
In conclusion, in my opinion the quality increase granted by the Mythic Forgehammer of Gond (tool) is lower than the one reported inside the description. However, I've reported my findings in this section because, being a matter of statistics, I would like to hear the experience of someone else. If few of you have found an opposite behavior, maybe it's just a matter of (my) bad luck. But, if not, I would like to know if someone else noticed this fact before posting in the Bug report section.
PS: please, avoid inconsistent replies. If you have not collected your statistics, it's just feelings. If you just performed 10 attempts, it's not enough to build a statistics.
Thank you for your time.
After having spent many hours crafting resources, I've collected my own statistics about success/failure rate.
As the title of this topic says, I've found an incoherence using the Forgehammer of Gond. The description states that the mythic tool should provide +55% quality, but this is not what I've observed. I perfectly know that success chance and success rate are two completely different things, but when the statistics becomes large enough, their mismatch should not be so large.
Let me explain with some examples.
Case 1
4x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
Tier 3 chance = 60%
My statistics = 56%
In line with expectation? YES
Case 2
3x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
1x Legendary tools (+50% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 70%
My statistics = 68%
In line with expectation? YES
Case 3
2x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
2x Legendary tools (+50% quality each)
Tier 3 chance = 80%
My statistics = 84%
In line with expectation? YES
Case 4
3x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
1x Mythic tool (+55% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 75%
My statistics = 58%
In line with expectation? NO
Case 5
4x Epic tools (+40% quality each)
1x Legendary tools (+50% quality)
1x Mythic tool (+55% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 85%
My statistics = 72%
In line with expectation? NO
Case 6
1x Epic tool (+40% quality)
2x Legendary tools (+50% quality each)
1x Mythic tool (+55% quality)
Tier 3 chance = 95%
My statistics = 80%
In line with expectation? NO
In conclusion, in my opinion the quality increase granted by the Mythic Forgehammer of Gond (tool) is lower than the one reported inside the description. However, I've reported my findings in this section because, being a matter of statistics, I would like to hear the experience of someone else. If few of you have found an opposite behavior, maybe it's just a matter of (my) bad luck. But, if not, I would like to know if someone else noticed this fact before posting in the Bug report section.
PS: please, avoid inconsistent replies. If you have not collected your statistics, it's just feelings. If you just performed 10 attempts, it's not enough to build a statistics.
Thank you for your time.
0
Comments
Given what I've read here in the forums, in discussions such as on read it, from other players directly, and my own experiences over the last three and a half years, I don't think it's possible for users to know how close to "random chance" overall results are for everyone over time. I didn't keep stats on the 60% tries on purple gemmed stuff back at level 20 before mastercrafting but it seemed that there would be bad runs and good runs which over time was near that, 6 gemmed and 4 not, in10 tries, but did everyone else get the same sorts of results?
If we had ten thousand trials each by ten thousand people every day for a year, overall would that be near the chance it's supposed to. Short of data game-wide as time went on, there's probably only anecdotal reports from the individuals who took the time to gather data for what they experienced, and is that sample large enough even still? Your numbers don't seem surprising though, some are closer than others.
Although it's seemed to me that professions were closer than kits, refining, drops, and they weren't all the same. Does it seem that getting 5 arcana kits in a row break happening every few weeks is abnormal, or is that just making up for the many times there were more successes than that in a row? On the other hand, the thievery kit at the wagon in the rothe valley tunnels seems to break a few times more often than not.
If you are trying to guess a percentage of legendary mount (more or less in the range of 0.1-0.01%, if not lower) I agree with you that thousands or even milions of attempts are necessary to have something that can be called estimation.
However, here we have a completely different scale. The smallest success chance is 60%. If a thousand of tries are not yet matching more or less the expected results, there is a high probability that something is not working.
In particular, if you look at the data I reported, there is a clear polarization, around a -10% when using the Mythic Forgehammer of Gond, like if the game is not accounting for its quality, comparing it to an epic tool. That's why I asked for other player's feedback.
For what concern the kit's success rate (75% on skill nodes), I bet that everyone of us faced sometimes sequential failures. Like the refinement of enchantments, sometimes it happens to obtain a series a failure that is completely out of statistics (I've even got 10 consecutive failures on the same enchantment having 50% success chance). But I suggest to make a distinction in this case. Such improbable events could be related to an issue in the random function used to determine the success or failure result. If the seed is badly generated (i.e. time/date-releated like in many mmorpg), it does not change consistently at each try. Follows that spamming the button will only waste your kits/preservation wards. And this fact can be easily tested: after a failure on a high chance (like a skill node for example), wait few seconds before trying again. Rarely you will obtain a second failure and in any case you won't obtain again an abnormal series of failure.
~ 500 case 1
~ 100 case 2
~ 100 case 3
~ 200 case 4
~ 100 case 5
~ 100 case 6
Attempt 1 = fail !!
Attempt 2 = fail !!
Attempt 3 = success
Attempt 4 = success
Attempt 5 = success
Attempt 6 = fail
That point I turned it off as I’ve never ever failed at 95%
Apart from some peculiar comment of people having a knowledge of probability theory equal to zero, I found the discussion really interesting. I appreciated your test on large scale with the oil of vitriol.
Therefore, your opinion is that it's just of matter or RNG and, on the long run, the results match the expectation.
I will update this post when I'll have at least doubled my attempts, so we can compare our results (yes, I record everything and I don't miss any success).
PS: How did the investigation end up? Any response from developers? I mean, being the post you linked been submitted to their attention...