Preservation Wards

aradyn

For those of us that absolutely hate the RNG, can we please get a way to not use it on refinement?

IE, 2 different boxes for the wards. The first = current/same scheme, a second box that you have to load up with X amount of pres wards that would equal a garauntee chance. I understand coal wards exist for this purpose, but you should not need to use a coal ward on a 25% upgrade. At the same time, it shouldn't take 30 pres wards (even with RNG) for that same upgrade. You should be able to load up 4x Pres wards to guarantee the upgrade. The guarantee slot would obviously use all wards loaded into it. This would allow some that really hate the RNG to bypass it.

So 2x pres for 50%, 4x for 25%, 10x for 10%, 20x for 5%, 34x for 3%, and anything 1% would be 100x pres wards or coal ward (since they run the same price).

There is nothing more frustrating than spending $10.00 on the game to get 100+ pres wards only to 1) not get that 10% upgrade and 2) basically have wasted the $10. This method would allow those that wish to still gamble to have that chance, but also not to frustrate those that are contributing to the game.

litaaers

You don't need to use preservation wards OR Coalescent Wards. Just try to upgrade and lose the reagents.

What's that? The reagents cost more than the preservation wards? But you still don't want to use preservation wards? Stop at rank 8's, or pour that $10 into AD and buy the best rank you can.

Sorry to come off sounding sarcastic, but it sounds like you want the best of both worlds... guaranteed and cheap. NOTHING like this will happen, as all of the people who have used the old method will call HAMSTER.

Just try to refine as smart as possible, and only bet what you can lose.

greywynd

Not to mention, if they did, they would never sell another coal ward as people would always choose the cheaper option.

aradyn

Ummm did you read the post? I didn't say guaranteed and cheap. Just guaranteed. I don't call spending $3.5 per enchantment to make it guaranteed cheap when you consider you that to be BIS in this game, you're going to do it over 30 times, only to see cryptic nerf it after you complete it. $100 just to nerf isn't a good $$ policy. It drives real money away from games.

And if the RNG really = 3% then it shouldn't take 150 pres wards (even with bad luck). There is no excuse, logic, or real programming for that. It is simply a request to step away from RNG for those of us that really despise the RNG.

ontrix1

aradyn#0871 said:

So 2x pres for 50%, 4x for 25%, 10x for 10%, 20x for 5%, 34x for 3%, and anything 1% would be 100x pres wards or coal ward (since they run the same price).

There is nothing more frustrating than spending $10.00 on the game to get 100+ pres wards only to 1) not get that 10% upgrade and 2) basically have wasted the $10. This method would allow those that wish to still gamble to have that chance, but also not to frustrate those that are contributing to the game.

While I agree the RNG sucks big time, I cannot agree with the #'s used here. The only good thing about a RNG is that you can get it on the first time. Outside of that, I think that you should need to use no more than 10 pres wards to level up anything. Going through stacks of Pres wards does nothing but HAMSTER people off. After the 10th pres ward, i.e. #11, you get an automatic upgrade.

kreatyve

aradyn#0871 said:

Ummm did you read the post? I didn't say guaranteed and cheap. Just guaranteed. I don't call spending $3.5 per enchantment to make it guaranteed cheap when you consider you that to be BIS in this game, you're going to do it over 30 times, only to see cryptic nerf it after you complete it. $100 just to nerf isn't a good $$ policy. It drives real money away from games.

And if the RNG really = 3% then it shouldn't take 150 pres wards (even with bad luck). There is no excuse, logic, or real programming for that. It is simply a request to step away from RNG for those of us that really despise the RNG.

If you want the guaranteed chance - that's what coal wards are for. What's the point of having something else??

litaaers

aradyn#0871 said:

Ummm did you read the post? I didn't say guaranteed and cheap. Just guaranteed. I don't call spending $3.5 per enchantment to make it guaranteed cheap when you consider you that to be BIS in this game, you're going to do it over 30 times, only to see cryptic nerf it after you complete it. $100 just to nerf isn't a good $$ policy. It drives real money away from games.

And if the RNG really = 3% then it shouldn't take 150 pres wards (even with bad luck). There is no excuse, logic, or real programming for that. It is simply a request to step away from RNG for those of us that really despise the RNG.

Yes, I read the post. That's what prompted my reply.

RNG is not cumulative. Each attempt is a 10/5/3/1% chance that stands on its own. And you are sharing those chances with the whole playerbase.

If you want something guaranteed, but not RNG based, ask for an item that you can grind into existence. EX: A stone that you need to add 500-1000 'shards' to, and at the end, you get a BtC Coal Ward. But it would need to be painful, or else the Zen Market sales would take a hit. That's all. And even that isn't likely.

If you despise RNG, please don't ever go into combat. They use that there, as well. Honestly, the whole game revolves around 'the roll of the dice', so maybe another game? No bad feelings, just the way it is.

greywynd

aradyn#0871 said:

Ummm did you read the post? I didn't say guaranteed and cheap. Just guaranteed. I don't call spending $3.5 per enchantment to make it guaranteed cheap when you consider you that to be BIS in this game, you're going to do it over 30 times, only to see cryptic nerf it after you complete it. $100 just to nerf isn't a good $$ policy. It drives real money away from games.

And if the RNG really = 3% then it shouldn't take 150 pres wards (even with bad luck). There is no excuse, logic, or real programming for that. It is simply a request to step away from RNG for those of us that really despise the RNG.

Get percentile dice. Start rolling and recording your numbers. See how often you actually roll 1-3 on them.

namelesshero347

One coal ward cost the same as 100 pres ward. You may not like the cost, but the guarantee you are asking for is available.

jiubiizeekk

kreatyve said:

aradyn#0871 said:

Ummm did you read the post? I didn't say guaranteed and cheap. Just guaranteed. I don't call spending $3.5 per enchantment to make it guaranteed cheap when you consider you that to be BIS in this game, you're going to do it over 30 times, only to see cryptic nerf it after you complete it. $100 just to nerf isn't a good $$ policy. It drives real money away from games.

And if the RNG really = 3% then it shouldn't take 150 pres wards (even with bad luck). There is no excuse, logic, or real programming for that. It is simply a request to step away from RNG for those of us that really despise the RNG.

If you want the guaranteed chance - that's what coal wards are for. What's the point of having something else??

The point is. $10.00USD Or $8.50with voucher Is a huge ask for something that may require a coal at rank 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 thats $70.00 at worst.... for one enchantment.

greywynd

And you can often get them free in the game through prayer.

namelesshero347

Only if you had a leadership army. Otherwise, you are lucky to get one or two per year per toon.

greywynd

Maybe RNGesus loves me. Any time I've needed one I've gotten one.

namelesshero347

I think I saw a post somewhere saying the coal ward drop rate from the invoke coffers is likely in the low single digit percentage.
You can get a box every 5.5 days. That's up to 66 boxes a year. So on average, you expect one or two wards a year. Given the crappy RNG. it wouldn't surprise me that some people get them often while others never see one for years.

andreask

The problem with wards is that their "free" version (from opening coffers) is in very short supply. Considering an account with 3 characters and assuming you don't miss a single pray, one can get 54 coffers every 100 days (little more than 3 months). How many wards can we expect from those coffers? One can argue about RNG and luck, but in any case I would be surprised to see more than 5 coal. and 15 pres. wards. Considering this is for a 3+ months time and the amount of them needed, it is obvious that it's not enough. Both preservation and coalescent need to be found in game as well. Some time gated quests (weekly/monthly based) could be implemented to make certain that there is some steady flow of these materials, not RNG based.


Items obtained with real money in a game should only shorten the time to get them, not be the main source for them. Otherwise, the company should scrap the title "Free to play" and stop misleading new players.

aradyn

@greywynd - possibly, but the sale of 100x pres wards = the same as 1x coal wards. This would = price and probable odds. So does 850 zen reduce from 850 zen? no. On the opposite, it would decrease people spending $10.00 for 1%/3%, but would highly increase new players (new money spending $1.00) to upgrade their %10 items.

@ontrix - agree that for those wishing to gamble, they may take the option of spending 10 pres wards... but there will still be gamblers.

@kreatyve & @nameleshero347 - coal wards by design are for 1% chance, there is NO reason you should have to spend a coal ward for a 10% chance (unless the RNG is broken, which cryptic claims it isnt.)

@kuataaers - RNG IS cumulative. As a cryptologist, I understand math VERY VERY WELL. And it is not each attempt is a 10/5/3/1% is NOT how the chance of diminishing odds works. At 10%, it is supposed to be 10%/10/10/10. Here is the formula: O = P / (1 - P) for REAL ODDS.

@joe - agree.

@greywynd - yes - but the design this actually encourages BOTS which is anti-real money coming into cryptic.

@namelesshero347 - unfortuantely, once you realize how the game works (coal ward from the boxes = 30%) , going into the above post, most bots = 52 character slots unlocked so thats a coal ward every 1-2 days. So, current format = great for bots = great for 2nd hand party sales = not so great for cryptic.

callumf

I have received one Coal Ward from prayer in 18 months of praying. How many times per day, every day, for 18 months? Whats that as a %age?

ilmenira

i think the point is RNG in upgrading is not enjoyable at ALL for some people, like me.
i'd prefer to pay a fixed price and know what to expect.
coal ward is NOT the substitute. it makes no sense to use it for any chance higher than 1% at the moment.

callumf

ilmenira said:

i think the point is RNG in upgrading is not enjoyable at ALL for some people, like me.
i'd prefer to pay a fixed price and know what to expect.
coal ward is NOT the substitute. it makes no sense to use it for any chance higher than 1% at the moment.

Yes - this is basically the conclusion I was coming to also. Let players have a reasonable way of guaranteeing success OR let them gamble

kreatyve

If coal wards were only for 1% then they wouldn't be able to be used on other percentages. Right now you can have 100% chance or you can gamble. If you don't like using pres wards on a 10% chance, then use a coal ward. There's no rule saying that you have to save the coal wards for 1% chance. I think some of you are misunderstanding the RNG and probability.

lantern22

This sounds like a request to reduce the price of Coal Wards, because they are what you can use to guarantee an upgrade chance. However you put it leads to the same thing.

If 11 pres wards guaranteed a chance, then a coal ward is worth 10 Pres etc.

mjonis

namelesshero347 said:

I think I saw a post somewhere saying the coal ward drop rate from the invoke coffers is likely in the low single digit percentage.
You can get a box every 5.5 days. That's up to 66 boxes a year. So on average, you expect one or two wards a year. Given the crappy RNG. it wouldn't surprise me that some people get them often while others never see one for years.

That's about right. 1-2% drop rate for Coal wards from Prayer boxes. But again, Cryptic's RNG is notoriously streaky, and there's usually always someone who has to post how they get one/week/month or some such nonsense.

This go around, opened 70 boxes and got one coal ward and 4 pres wards.

Of course, went through 120 pres wards on a 5% chance upgrade.

Since this was double-rp weekend, the stack of 99 pres wards was actually more than the 1 coal ward. Had I known I would've blown through 120 pres wards, I would've just bought a coal ward.

callumf

This is the thing - 120 pres wards on a 5% chance just sucks so badly. This is where the pain comes from. And yes I understand that a Coal Ward allows guaranteed upgrade, but really 120 on a 5% chance?

siegeric

In any probability distribution where the chance of success is less than 100%, no matter how many times you try, the chance for a desired result only approaches 100%, it never actually reaches 100%. You may burn 10,000 preservation wards at 5% and still not be guaranteed a success. That may seem unfair, but that's how probability works. Such a scenario is highly unlikely as the chance of such a series occurring is well below 1%, but it remains a possible outcome. Most people incorrectly assume that a 5% success rate means 20 attempts will guarantee success. Unfortunately, 20 attempts only produces a roughly 64% likelihood (it doesn't dip below 1% until 90 attempts). 120 attempts approaches roughly 99.78%, which still isn't guaranteed, though less than 1%. If you want a guaranteed outcome, use a Coalescent Ward - it works every time.

plasticbat

callumf#9018 said:

This is the thing - 120 pres wards on a 5% chance just sucks so badly. This is where the pain comes from. And yes I understand that a Coal Ward allows guaranteed upgrade, but really 120 on a 5% chance?

Comparing with 50 in 10% chance, I wonder which is worse.

reg1981

Overall I'm satisfied with the current model.

Yes, it's probably all in my head but I go to an empty Blacklake instance for my combines and I move items and my character when I get on a cold streak.

I find the 10% chance one of the most difficult to complete. My DC sigil on my OP took 150+ pres wards to complete the 10% chance. That was my worst experience with RNG upgrades.

siegeric

50 attempts at 10% success yields a 99.48% likelihood of success. 120 attempts at 5% yields 99.78%. The closer you get to 100%, the further you went without a desired outcome occurring, so 120 attempts at 5% is worse (not even factoring in the time it took to produce 120 attempts and the need to swap in a second stack of wards once the first stack of 99 was exhausted).

rikitaki

You know, the problem is that if there is label 5% chance, on average you should try 20x to refine it. For 10% it is 10, 25% 4 and so on.
I usually do need double the amount of wards but I do not get any first try wins, so I guess this simple statistics does not apply here. My score this double event is 5 wards on 50% chance, 50 wards together on 2x10% chance and 35 wards on 5% chance.
To sum it up: 90 wards total versus 41 according to statistics.
Yeah, I was just unlucky, but as this happens every time...

btairborne

OP, get die 100 from your local hobby store and see how streaky you get.