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Fudged Item Upgrade Odds

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  • xilinearxilinear Member Posts: 140 Arc User
    Look at the positive side of things, everytime you burn a preservation ward on a 90% upgrade, 9 other people succeed...If anything you are doing the community a service! Be proud!
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 12,451 Arc User
    edited November 2016
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    xilinear said:

    Look at the positive side of things, everytime you burn a preservation ward on a 90% upgrade, 9 other people succeed...If anything you are doing the community a service! Be proud!

    If you "burn a p-ward" on a 90% upgrade, something is really wrong and it is not about RNG. :)
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • dionchidionchi Member Posts: 919 Arc User
    edited December 2016

    People will say the odds aren't showing correctly, and people will say they are and that you just got unlucky. People will come around with astronomical odds that you could possibly fail a X% upgrade after X number of tries.

    In the end - nobody knows. Since there is no realistic way to test the system, and the data is not available to be parsed, all we have is their word that the numbers are accurate.

    My opinion is, the RNG gets stuck. best example is, go on a skill node hunt. Note down how many times you get it with the first try, how many times you fail and how many times you failed repeatedly on the same node. Your numbers will look something like this (number of kits used till success):
    [snip]
    Most skill nodes have a 75% success rate, but the numbers won't add up to that.

    Anyways, this comes up a lot and they aren't going to provide any acceptable proof that it is working. Just have to suck it up and understand that in general, the RNG gods will make it up to you eventually.

    One thing I found that helps is don't just stand in the same place and try kit after kit, move around slightly before trying after a failed attempt. I rarely have to use more than two kits with this technique.

    As for the upgrading odds they are what they are... IMO intentionally made more difficult to force or at least entice people to spend more money purchasing coalescent wards.

    There is another issue though, it used to be when a person refined a runestone or enchantment the results would always equal out to an even number so people could actually stack the stones they make... now there is a different formula entirely when doing refining that makes producing stackable stones almost impossible it seems.

    Who's friggin brainchild was that?!? :s

    DD~
  • btairbornebtairborne Member Posts: 352 Arc User
    I think the problem is that all RNG is apparently based on 100 possible outcomes, which leads to very bad streaks. 10% is not 1 in 10 chance possibilities but 10 in 100. This is how you get so many fails on 75% skill rolls.
  • nameexpirednameexpired Member Posts: 1,282 Arc User
    edited December 2016

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    xilinear said:

    Look at the positive side of things, everytime you burn a preservation ward on a 90% upgrade, 9 other people succeed...If anything you are doing the community a service! Be proud!

    If you "burn a p-ward" on a 90% upgrade, something is really wrong and it is not about RNG. :)
    I assume you are being ironic here. Not sure.
    If someone expects a 90% change to work at 100% times they missed a few minutes of their math class. They might wonder where the missing 10% went ... as this is Dungeons and Dragons I'd say fishing probably. But at what percentage?

    For the literate among the players:
    a million-to-one chance succeeds nine times out of ten

    Imaginary Friends are the best friends you can have!
  • 1. I see a whole lot of theory-craft about the mechanics for the chance-to-upgrade item - interesting, but it only amounts to wild speculation or best guess.
    2. It's one thing to require a massive grind for mats to upgrade gear. It's another thing to require a massive grind for mats PLUS a random chance to actually succeed.
    3. Massive grind for mats PLUS random chance to succeed PLUS a system that seems rigged to motivate you to spend RL $ = I'm out.

    If NW ever changes this chance-to-upgrade mechanic, I might consider playing again. As it stands, the game is just too damn frustrating and lends itself to conspiracy theories about a money grubbing game company.
  • asterotgasterotg Member Posts: 1,742 Arc User
    It is RNG and it is flawed. This 2xRP WE was very lucky for me. I had to spent less then 50% of P-wards, then statistically needed. I had runs, that went otherwise.
    Chars: CW, DC, GF, GWF, HR and TR.
  • solbergxsolbergx Member Posts: 654 Arc User
    I used 13 preservation to upgrade a belt to rank 60 at 10% chance and succeeded on the last one
  • aslan3775aslan3775 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 295 Arc User
    edited December 2016
    I find it entirely too coincidental that both you and I succeeded on the last try. Has anyone else found this to be true? o:)

    @solbergx : I am still lmao at your post. Thank you!!!
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 12,451 Arc User
    edited December 2016

    ---

    xilinear said:

    Look at the positive side of things, everytime you burn a preservation ward on a 90% upgrade, 9 other people succeed...If anything you are doing the community a service! Be proud!

    If you "burn a p-ward" on a 90% upgrade, something is really wrong and it is not about RNG. :)
    I assume you are being ironic here. Not sure.
    If someone expects a 90% change to work at 100% times they missed a few minutes of their math class. They might wonder where the missing 10% went ... as this is Dungeons and Dragons I'd say fishing probably. But at what percentage?

    For the literate among the players:
    a million-to-one chance succeeds nine times out of ten

    I mean one should not use p-ward when it is 90%. The p-ward is more expensive than the mat the p-ward tries to protect.

    That is why I said:

    If you "burn a p-ward" on a 90% upgrade, something is really wrong and it is not about RNG. :)
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 12,451 Arc User
    aslan3775 said:

    I find it entirely too coincidental that both you and I succeeded on the last try. Has anyone else found this to be true? o:)

    @solbergx : I am still lmao at your post. Thank you!!!

    I find it even more coincidental that I succeeded on the last account bound p-ward. It makes me feel the game try to keep a inventory space from me. And, that happened more than once and it was always the account bound p-ward.
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • samaka#2511 samaka Member Posts: 568 Arc User
    The RNG can be funny, I was trying to upgrade two artifacts to legendary, so a 10% chance. Burned through about 20 p.wards, then went to the Stronghold, got both artifacts upgraded right away, used 3 total wards.
    @samaka#2511
  • solbergxsolbergx Member Posts: 654 Arc User
    aslan3775 said:

    I find it entirely too coincidental that both you and I succeeded on the last try. Has anyone else found this to be true? o:)

    @solbergx : I am still lmao at your post. Thank you!!!

    You always succeed on the last try, lol
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