didn´t get any ward, not the green nor the blue for month, I would say it got worse month ago...mod 6/7?
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lantern22Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,111Arc User
Two weeks ago I took my stash of coffers to our stronghold to open them, had about 40 as I hadn't opened one for months. I got a Coal ward on my first coffer. Figured that luck was too good to be true, so I didn't open anymore. That was my first CW ever in maybe 2 years.
So you think that drop rate is different around the globe? Well then i contribute my stats as Finlands drop rate. It would be good thing if more players post here about drop rates -> more stats -> better accuracy.
Been playing for 2 years and a few months now (started after Shadowmantle was released). Playing with 3 tons, been pretty persistent (maybe missed few weeks of invoking) and so far 1 coal all together...
As someone from the admins was nice to point out to - you need to make 50 characters to get 1/week, (and be prepared that your game experience will change from whatever you do now, to login and pray with your characters)
Please fix Zhentarim Warlock companion's skill "Arcane Warping" to the originally intended "Arcane Boost" zhentarim-warlock-companion
I hope those of you who aren't getting any wards or have never gotten any wards are actually saving them up and opening them all at once. You surely aren't opening them one at a time. That's a guarantee that you won't ever get one. RNG is only in your favor when you open multiples at once, and as many as possible.
This is only an accurate statement if you remove the temporal variable from the equation. If not, then opening 1000 boxes over 1000 days, vs 1000 boxes in one day will still yield the same statistical result, the difference being the results will accumulate over 1000 days rather than 1. That said, if you open 1000 boxes in one day, the chance of you having an ultra-rare item in your inventory at the end of one day is, clearly, much higher than if you only open one. That's not because the chance of getting a given item increases from one box to the next - that is, it's not 1%, then 2%, then 3% and so on until you get one, but rather a cumulative effect of taking many chances in a short period of time simply increases the likelihood that a desirable result will occur. The random chance PER BOX doesn't change.
I'm being nitpicky, I realize, but statistics is a complicated science and statements like the above can easily create misinformation unless put into proper context.
"That's a guarantee that you won't ever get one." is simply incorrect. (I don't do this, I open the boxes as I get them, and I have 5 or 6 C-Wards in my bank that prove this statement incorrect).
"RNG is only in your favor when you open multiples at once, and as many as possible." is also only mostly correct... The RNG is never in your favor, but this statement is still correct from a statistics perspective (as I mentioned above).
Considering how much time and how extremely boring process invoking is rewards from it ain't really good. If i would put that same amount of time to running dungeons etc. i would probably get better rewards. I think drop rate of coal ward is something like 1-2%. They are really rare, even when i maybe have few more toons than average player has.
except if it is not Bernoulli or whatever distribution you are thinking about but quasi rng with a preset sequence for all players in a zone. Say a string 00000100001, then ppl who open more boxes fast and stop at a 1 are killing off your chances and you hope for a double 1 in the sequence
Please fix Zhentarim Warlock companion's skill "Arcane Warping" to the originally intended "Arcane Boost" zhentarim-warlock-companion
So you think that drop rate is different around the globe? Well then i contribute my stats as Finlands drop rate. It would be good thing if more players post here about drop rates -> more stats -> better accuracy.
You would need literally tens of thousands, if not hundreds or even into the millions, of attempts to get anything like a statistically accurate number. Which leaves either (a) flooding the thread with piecemeal results or (b) running a simulator to simulate opening hundreds of thousands of boxes at once and then posting the results over several runs.
ROLL TIDE ROLL
Great Weapon Fighter: Because when is today not a good day to die?
PC and PS4 player. Proud Guildmaster for PS4 Team Fencebane. Rank 5 Officer for PC Team Fencebane. Visit us at http://fencebane.shivtr.com
So you think that drop rate is different around the globe? Well then i contribute my stats as Finlands drop rate. It would be good thing if more players post here about drop rates -> more stats -> better accuracy.
You would need literally tens of thousands, if not hundreds or even into the millions, of attempts to get anything like a statistically accurate number.
No, you don't. Well, maybe if you wanted much higher confidence than stats normally asks for, and tiny margin of error. You can calculate for yourself here: http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
Here's what happens to recommended sample size in the default entries on the above website when you increase the population size, it increases from a recommended sample of 376 for a population of 20000, to a recommended sample size of 381 for a population of 2 million. In other words, to get the same accuracy out of 2 million to give you the same accuracy as 376 out of 20,000, you only need 381 samples, an increase of five samples. You don't need 100x the sample size to get the same accuracy from 100x the population.
What I think they need to add is a counter and actual % rate that you can look at by hovering over a coffer (or any rng item in the game). It should show how many you opened and how many wards you got and what the actual % rate is.
Same thing for when you refine and you fail 20 times in a row on a 50% success rate refine.
So you think that drop rate is different around the globe? Well then i contribute my stats as Finlands drop rate. It would be good thing if more players post here about drop rates -> more stats -> better accuracy.
You would need literally tens of thousands, if not hundreds or even into the millions, of attempts to get anything like a statistically accurate number.
No, you don't. Well, maybe if you wanted much higher confidence than stats normally asks for, and tiny margin of error. You can calculate for yourself here: http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
Here's what happens to recommended sample size in the default entries on the above website when you increase the population size, it increases from a recommended sample of 376 for a population of 20000, to a recommended sample size of 381 for a population of 2 million. In other words, to get the same accuracy out of 2 million to give you the same accuracy as 376 out of 20,000, you only need 381 samples, an increase of five samples. You don't need 100x the sample size to get the same accuracy from 100x the population.
anyone with just basic knowledge of statistics knows that and not to ask for a sample of millions.
So you think that drop rate is different around the globe? Well then i contribute my stats as Finlands drop rate. It would be good thing if more players post here about drop rates -> more stats -> better accuracy.
You would need literally tens of thousands, if not hundreds or even into the millions, of attempts to get anything like a statistically accurate number.
No, you don't. Well, maybe if you wanted much higher confidence than stats normally asks for, and tiny margin of error. You can calculate for yourself here: http://www.raosoft.com/samplesize.html
Here's what happens to recommended sample size in the default entries on the above website when you increase the population size, it increases from a recommended sample of 376 for a population of 20000, to a recommended sample size of 381 for a population of 2 million. In other words, to get the same accuracy out of 2 million to give you the same accuracy as 376 out of 20,000, you only need 381 samples, an increase of five samples. You don't need 100x the sample size to get the same accuracy from 100x the population.
anyone with just basic knowledge of statistics knows that and not to ask for a sample of millions.
Yes but I'm tired of seeing mods (former in this case) try to shut down any data gathering with the "it'll take millions of samples" stuff. They are wrong.
It has been over a year for me, and with nine toons all doing blessings every day it leads me to believe that I am either the unluckiest player in the world, or the drop rate was all but removed. I do have 60 Preservation Wards though, but the last time I got a Coal was in Mod 5.
cryptic will never get another penny from me because of Coalgate
I am not a fan of how they delt with it. And I think there needs a way to earn them in game. If you want to get mad, get mad at the people in the marketing dep. The ones who did not think HOW to add two and two. But how do you expect a FREE TO PLAY game stays in the black hhmm? I am a poor broke as %&$& disabled american. Who can barely pay my bills with what I DO make {I am only allowed to work 25 hours a week per Dr. orders or I lose my disability.} I have put what I can into the game. But I don't take advantage of other peoples mistakes to get ahead. Especially in a video game!
This thread wasn't meant to be a statistical analysis discussion. For those of you with obviously vastly superior knowledge of statistics and probability, you continue on opening your one lockbox at a time with a smug smile.
I'll not even bother commenting on your hijacking the topic which has already been answered. Good luck with your Pseudo RNG (look it up), may the odds forever be in your favor.
Post edited by ltgamesttv#0999 on
On ambush rings: "How would you like PVE if all the mobs were invisible?"
cryptic will never get another penny from me because of Coalgate
I am not a fan of how they delt with it. And I think there needs a way to earn them in game. If you want to get mad, get mad at the people in the marketing dep. The ones who did not think HOW to add two and two. But how do you expect a FREE TO PLAY game stays in the black hhmm? I am a poor broke as %&$& disabled american. Who can barely pay my bills with what I DO make {I am only allowed to work 25 hours a week per Dr. orders or I lose my disability.} I have put what I can into the game. But I don't take advantage of other peoples mistakes to get ahead. Especially in a video game!
I agree that you can't ask for a Free to Play if nobody charge anything, the problem is that over the years the dev team of this game has systematically changed the rules untill the point that for me its impossible to trust them nor support them. I know that the game is going to end if people don't charge, but to be honest I just don't care anymore about this game and I can only play it for free or I will feel scamed.
Comments
gl
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You need to collect data on Coal ward from Much more players around the world, your imput will not be relevant in the world of statistics...
It would be good thing if more players post here about drop rates -> more stats -> better accuracy.
zhentarim-warlock-companion
Pure -> Transcendent Plague Fire weapon enchantment giving 80damge/20 seconds for 500k+ AD is a joke.
plague-fire-weapon-enchant-r11-vs-r12
I'm being nitpicky, I realize, but statistics is a complicated science and statements like the above can easily create misinformation unless put into proper context.
"That's a guarantee that you won't ever get one." is simply incorrect. (I don't do this, I open the boxes as I get them, and I have 5 or 6 C-Wards in my bank that prove this statement incorrect).
"RNG is only in your favor when you open multiples at once, and as many as possible." is also only mostly correct... The RNG is never in your favor, but this statement is still correct from a statistics perspective (as I mentioned above).
Sekhmet@kvetchus_
Guilds: Greycloaks, Blackcloaks, Whitecloaks, Goldcloaks, Browncloaks, Spiritcloaks, Bluecloaks, Silvercloaks, Black Dawn
Tredecim: The Cloak Alliance
I think drop rate of coal ward is something like 1-2%. They are really rare, even when i maybe have few more toons than average player has.
zhentarim-warlock-companion
Pure -> Transcendent Plague Fire weapon enchantment giving 80damge/20 seconds for 500k+ AD is a joke.
plague-fire-weapon-enchant-r11-vs-r12
Great Weapon Fighter: Because when is today not a good day to die?
PC and PS4 player. Proud Guildmaster for PS4 Team Fencebane. Rank 5 Officer for PC Team Fencebane. Visit us at http://fencebane.shivtr.com
Here's what happens to recommended sample size in the default entries on the above website when you increase the population size, it increases from a recommended sample of 376 for a population of 20000, to a recommended sample size of 381 for a population of 2 million. In other words, to get the same accuracy out of 2 million to give you the same accuracy as 376 out of 20,000, you only need 381 samples, an increase of five samples. You don't need 100x the sample size to get the same accuracy from 100x the population.
Same thing for when you refine and you fail 20 times in a row on a 50% success rate refine.
I'll not even bother commenting on your hijacking the topic which has already been answered. Good luck with your Pseudo RNG (look it up), may the odds forever be in your favor.