I don't know, I look forward to using my key everyday. I mostly get junk, but I have won a purple axebeak once and of course you get tradebars every-time which is nice. It is what it is, so best not to get your hopes up.
- I have 2 characters with maxed Fazerthingies, done over a thousand of those Epic Demo's and not one +5 ring. - I have made multiple rank 12 sets, never had a "wow that worked well" - had multiple "sever stacks of pres wards" for 11's and 12's. The chances of that happened.. being slim to none. - I even had a 90% take like 25 tries once. Sure I could have waited and tried later but just thought I'd ride it out.
I know a lot of dev posts over the years have said they never mess with their RNG, they just add more lower tier items to the tables which ultimately makes you get very very very very large amounts of useless things. Take the Rusted lockbox. It doesn't drop very many things, I have gotten several of those mounts for very few keys. Lots of other lock boxes are loads of lower tier items so we very rarely get the good stuff in them.
I think the way neverwinter works is off a loot table system like most all games are. You have multiple layers of it, each layer has X number of items in them. The way they add to the lower odds is in say in the lower tier, x item will be in the table itself like 500 times, compared to a good item in it once. At the highest tier it is similar odds but maybe the lower items aren't in them as much. For NW I think there is 1 loot table per drop/box/boss. You open a lockbox, there is 1 epic/legendary anything possible, and each of the other items is in the pool several thousand times. Depending on latency/time of day/DDOS'ing, the pattern at which these items are picked changes drastically.
Example: Open 50 coffers from praying. 1 on each character. You'll get 1-2 coal wards, a lot of times you'll get zero. Transfer via shared bank slots to one character, open all 50. You will ALWAYS GET ONE. I'm sure they messed with this b/c it is less and less now. But back in mod 4-5. I avg'd 3-4 per 50 boxes on one toon. And 0-1 otherwise. Call it RNG, but the thing that sorta goes against "random" is patterns.... and there are a lot of patterns in this game, and these aren't false or superstitious. Just come to the conclusion that the last lockbox that was "in your favor" was the rusted iron. After that lockbox, odds/tables changed. It was stated that they weren't, but guys.... Myself and a few other have opened thousands of each lockbox to come to the same conclusion. I doubt a lot of people open thousands, but ever since we got our "1 free key a day" the lockboxes falling after this change have had much much MUCH lower rates.
0
putzboy78Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 1,950Arc User
The prices of keys and VIP need to be permanently lowered if these packs are all we are ever going to get over and over.
Really? Seems like VIP has been very profitable for those that have it. Can you imagine what people were paying before VIP and you only had zen bought keys for lockboxes. micro-transaction hell
0
klangeddinMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 882Arc User
edited February 2016
The acronym "RNG" is misleading, they should be called PNG (pseudorandom) or CNG (chaotic), computers are deterministic machines, you can't get something random out of it. You can get the "illusion" it's random because you see a pattern that you cannot easily identify so you say "oh must be random then", when it's not. The pattern is definitely there and you have to add the fact that a computer only has a limited set of numbers it can operate with (no matter how large). The issue is if this pattern has the statistical properties (over several millions of iterations) that make it similar to the stochastic event it intends to emulate (avarage, median, mode, kurtosis, ecc...). Quite frankly we cannot prove this in any way and, for obvious reasons, the developers cannot release such sensible information to the gereal public (it would be exploited). I do wonder, though, if there are laws that force companies to their RNG reward algorithm get controlled by some kind of government authority, there was something like that for casinos when they introduced electronic system in the slot machines (before that they were mechanical) and, when you think about it, we're not that far from that scenario here, when someone pays real money for keys...
I do wonder, though, if there are laws that force companies to their RNG reward algorithm get controlled by some kind of government authority, there was something like that for casinos when they introduced electronic system in the slot machines (before that they were mechanical) and, when you think about it, we're not that far from that scenario here, when someone pays real money for keys...
I do believe in the near future there will be. RNG boxes will become re-categorized as gambling or some sort of it. Right now in BnS there is large vocal disliking of NCsoft adding them. (good 25 pages of responses in a day, mostly against, but some for)
BUT i do believe the gaming companies will do everything in their power (even buying lobbying groups/politicians) to prevent that since it brings in soooo much money for these companies. Most likely the $$$ will triumph. Proof --> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5tu32CCA_Ig
In this game, Ive gotten lucky with RNG things and unlucky with others. Like maybe a year without opening a coaleascent ward on multi char. But then getting things like Metallic Dragonborn token in the RNG boxes.
"The lockbox phenomenon has been going on a lot longer in the East than it has in the West, and as such many of those countries have butted heads with the game companies over these shady practices. As a result, there have been laws and regulations put into place to hold back the companies from going full-on Ebenezer Scrooge on players, but American and European governments have yet to respond in kind.
I'm just saying that if the argument can be made that lockboxes are virtual gambling, then they're going to end up as subjects of court rulings and possible legal entanglements. We've already seen this happen, and there's no reason to think it won't occur again."
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
- Dylan Thomas
0
lukejones77Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 282Arc User
Why I give up on RNG (lock boxes etc):
I expect that, in fairness, at any point that I "roll the dice", I have a certain, specific chance, like everyone else. That is what a dice roll means!
All the evidence says that this is not true, and that there are other factors at play: - What time am I doing this? Apparently, good results happen for whole groups of people, *at specific times". Just watching the admin messages, this seems to be clearly true. - Where am I doing this? Apparently, empty instances help - whatever that means....? - What class etc am I? Some say that this helps. Not sure that it's true, but faith is already destroyed, based on the 2 points above.
As far as I'm concerned, the game allows me to exercise my chance to win something from any place at any time. Absolutely, if I roll the roll at some random time, in some random place, and I have near zero chance, because "it's the wrong time/place/class/whatever", I'm being cheated.
But... they won't tell us, though it seems the admin messages kinda do...
So, it turns out that "good" RNGs are very computationally expensive, both time and CPU cycle-wise. Therefore, you'd expect that there is a pretty strong incentive to "cheat" on them in the coding. Add to this that the average developers/coders understanding of probability and statistics is likely based on a single undergraduate class (if that), and you have a recipe for some really terrible systems. An that is before you start considering that the devs generally don't really WANT true random results, and likely have constraints coded in on top of the (already likely poor) RNG implementation, for example to prevent "gaming" the system if anyone actually figures out the source of the seed value used to calculate the RN.
So, if you actually looked at the code used to determine "random" events in games, you'd probably find a LOT of really terribad design decisions/compromises.
Some possible approaches I've personally seen in code, or suspected in various games: - seed values based on account or character IDs (makes some players artificially "lucky!") - not using a RNG at all, instead a "bit shift" or similar mechanism. Super fast, but not really "random". - using a sub-second time slice comparison instead of a RNG call; i.e. want a 1 in 100 "random" probability? Did the check occur with a timestamp ending in ".01", etc. With the assumption that calls are made at "random" times... which depending on the stack execution, generally isn't true... but it looks great in code. - timed "global" random numbers (or seeds), with all other checks vs. some derivation of that value during a time interval. - seeds or RN generated at instance creation and used by/applied to all subsequent calls. - etc. or combinations of some or all of the above.
Basically, it's not terribly hard to generate a "random" result in code, *given certain assumptions*, And that's where things fall down, since those assumptions aren't necessarily true for all ACTUAL cases where the "RNG" is called...
for some who never heard of it, allow me to explain, it was specific strange code bug when that character was made, type of name created, the class we choose, once made, it had some wierd "binary" factor. i had seen a character get all the "hates", one of the dungeon got cleared of mobs once that character zone in, and got swarmed. other game, that drop keys on mobs corpse, most players had stock up on keys and went to other dungeons to get top grade spells, random best armor or weapons. that character with "wei-flagged" curse-like code, got terrible "RNG", and only end up pulling spell components and nothing else, not a singe armor or any crappy weapons, or a spell scrolls, wasted 10 keys just to get spell comps, he got frustrated, and played a newer character, and got different results, and got variety of mixes loots from the chest just like anyone else gets. but when he plays to find out why this character was so unlucky, having the mobs swarming from local landblock, having extreme bad chest pulls, then he decided to delete that character and reolled with new names and class.
then few week later, other player started his new account, a newer player, rolled up and choose a name that was used and deleted by original owner, not knowing, the newer character with old name still got unlucky RNG, until the original player saw that old name he had use, he ask the new owner if that character has some bad luck and he was surprised that it still got unlucky streak like he never seen, same bug factor, only choice the new owner had was to delete and reroll with new names to get better luck. i dont remember the name, but i heard about it back in spring of 2001, and the company had a special socail gathering party, there is few people mentioned few characters that end up with bad lucks, company think it was a myth until they tested on thier own time and they were surprised after they tested, and they call it "Wei-Flagged" and took out some flawed codes they created back in early 1998. then they created unique mobs tagged as "Black Ferah" so that no one else use the name when creating characters.
there are some characters that had extremely lucky, getting best armor with multiple buffs and highest crit base weapons nearly everytime they open the chest, they are the ones had made them very rich.
- What time am I doing this? Apparently, good results happen for whole groups of people, *at specific times". Just watching the admin messages, this seems to be clearly true.
The only thing admin messages tell you is when someone hit the jackpot. More people winning at a certain time of day probably means more people playing at that time.
- Where am I doing this? Apparently, empty instances help - whatever that means....? - What class etc am I? Some say that this helps. Not sure that it's true, but faith is already destroyed, based on the 2 points above.
How do you know this? These statistics don't exist and it is not possible for someone to collect them.
0
lukejones77Member, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 282Arc User
- What time am I doing this? Apparently, good results happen for whole groups of people, *at specific times". Just watching the admin messages, this seems to be clearly true.
The only thing admin messages tell you is when someone hit the jackpot. More people winning at a certain time of day probably means more people playing at that time.
- Where am I doing this? Apparently, empty instances help - whatever that means....? - What class etc am I? Some say that this helps. Not sure that it's true, but faith is already destroyed, based on the 2 points above.
How do you know this? These statistics don't exist and it is not possible for someone to collect them.
You really haven't noticed? After some kind of new release, when people are opening lock boxes like crazy, the big wins are broadcast, and come in clusters. At specific times people suddenly get lucky, in short bursts. This happens far too often to be co-incidence.
But, I never claimed to *know* anything. I said that I had lot faith in a fair roll, irrespective of time of day etc.
It's kinda like you roll your dice and tell the Game master the result, but he informs you that you needn't bother telling him the result, because he's decided on a secret time that you can have a successful roll - and this ain't that time! Who would think of that as being fair?
So, here's the thing: crowd behavior can influence the result. I've listened to many conversations about how people think the system works, and why it works in a particular way. You could, for example, get a clustered "lucky time" simple because enough people believe in it, and a broadcast win starts a spate of online box opening that results in a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Devs can easily come out and declare that any box opening has a set chance, irrespective of time of day, instance population etc etc. It's a pretty hot topic, with a lot real money being spent. But, what are we told? I hear only crickets...
You really haven't noticed? After some kind of new release, when people are opening lock boxes like crazy, the big wins are broadcast, and come in clusters. At specific times people suddenly get lucky, in short bursts. This happens far too often to be co-incidence.
Winning in clusters is not surprising, especially at a time when more people are playing. Three weeks ago, the Powerball jackpot here in the US had built up to $1.5 billion dollars because there were no winners for several weeks. Three people ended up winning that jackpot.
The Devs can easily come out and declare that any box opening has a set chance, irrespective of time of day, instance population etc etc. It's a pretty hot topic, with a lot real money being spent. But, what are we told? I hear only crickets...
Yes there is lots of money involved. The RNG performance impacts the company's profit. You will not hear a single word from the devs about it. Any little detail will be used by people to game the system.
It's kinda like you roll your dice and tell the Game master the result, but he informs you that you needn't bother telling him the result, because he's decided on a secret time that you can have a successful roll - and this ain't that time! Who would think of that as being fair?
I've experienced a number of really nasty streaks with refining, like blowing more than one stack of pres wards doing a 10% upgrade type of streaks. I too would like a bit of transparency here like seeing the results of the roll. But to the point above, any little detail will probably end up being used by the public to game the system.
Oh dear Jesus it is broken, if you like to use this word, i as a part time historian, who may call one of today's biggest living historian his mentor, would use some other word. Also the company i work for is a subsidiary of one of the world's biggest car manufacturers, so comes with the job to know all PR stuff.
History is the biggest teacher of all time, that's why in the past it was elemental for kids at a young age to know at least their own one perfectly. Not so today...
All, who are seeking how RNG works in games, just 1 advice, take a look at history and read for yourself, who where those 2 persons, who invented modern day PR. To make things easy for history newbies, you got to search around ww2. These 2 people are so widely known amongst the PR people, that they even teach their methods in College or University, so no secret at all. I could recommend a good book on the subject, but hey won't, this is not a historian forum.
I saw an example a month ago, could have nearly exploded, when i heard the word RNG after it. The girl opened her daily boxes on more toons, rewards as follows: 3 epic mounts, 1 artifact, 1 coal. Same day she got 1 horn also and a coal ward regularly on same weekend each month. Talk about RNG...
Yes RNG needs a huge rework, cause at current state it borders tastelessness.
While some of us look at 2+ years on several toons, close to zero luck, many times closed chests, Wi Flag issues (had to delete 2 accounts with 2 GFs, stuck in progress or not working at all). Wi Flag is pretty hard stuff, mostly cause it's a bug and none like to admit it.
Another thing is what i call "broder line RNG". I see this more and more day in and out doing the Demonic HEs, yesterday for example (have the screenshot) a guy took a comfy seat in his lion throne and waited the HE to finish and collected the reward. I mean WTF, we work hard and some just sit (!) there and get away with the loot, what the heck.
So my advise would be to rework it, cause it stinks like a 3 day old dead fish and i have lost many many good friends cause of above mentioned RNG and some general unfair loot drops.
The real honest man is honest from conviction of what is right, not from policy.
Robert E. Lee
I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself.
Winston Churchill
The human race is a herd. Here we are, unique, eternal aspects of consciousness with an infinity of potential, and we have allowed ourselves to become an unthinking, unquestioning blob of conformity and uniformity. A herd. Once we concede to the herd mentality, we can be controlled and directed by a tiny few. And we are.
David Icke
Comments
http://www.trovesaurus.com/page=930/lootbox-karma
and i'm still hoping to see something similar here too.
- I have made multiple rank 12 sets, never had a "wow that worked well" - had multiple "sever stacks of pres wards" for 11's and 12's. The chances of that happened.. being slim to none.
- I even had a 90% take like 25 tries once. Sure I could have waited and tried later but just thought I'd ride it out.
I know a lot of dev posts over the years have said they never mess with their RNG, they just add more lower tier items to the tables which ultimately makes you get very very very very large amounts of useless things. Take the Rusted lockbox. It doesn't drop very many things, I have gotten several of those mounts for very few keys. Lots of other lock boxes are loads of lower tier items so we very rarely get the good stuff in them.
I think the way neverwinter works is off a loot table system like most all games are. You have multiple layers of it, each layer has X number of items in them. The way they add to the lower odds is in say in the lower tier, x item will be in the table itself like 500 times, compared to a good item in it once. At the highest tier it is similar odds but maybe the lower items aren't in them as much. For NW I think there is 1 loot table per drop/box/boss. You open a lockbox, there is 1 epic/legendary anything possible, and each of the other items is in the pool several thousand times. Depending on latency/time of day/DDOS'ing, the pattern at which these items are picked changes drastically.
Example: Open 50 coffers from praying. 1 on each character. You'll get 1-2 coal wards, a lot of times you'll get zero. Transfer via shared bank slots to one character, open all 50. You will ALWAYS GET ONE. I'm sure they messed with this b/c it is less and less now. But back in mod 4-5. I avg'd 3-4 per 50 boxes on one toon. And 0-1 otherwise. Call it RNG, but the thing that sorta goes against "random" is patterns.... and there are a lot of patterns in this game, and these aren't false or superstitious. Just come to the conclusion that the last lockbox that was "in your favor" was the rusted iron. After that lockbox, odds/tables changed. It was stated that they weren't, but guys.... Myself and a few other have opened thousands of each lockbox to come to the same conclusion. I doubt a lot of people open thousands, but ever since we got our "1 free key a day" the lockboxes falling after this change have had much much MUCH lower rates.
I do wonder, though, if there are laws that force companies to their RNG reward algorithm get controlled by some kind of government authority, there was something like that for casinos when they introduced electronic system in the slot machines (before that they were mechanical) and, when you think about it, we're not that far from that scenario here, when someone pays real money for keys...
https://forums.bladeandsoul.com/topic/167300-new-rng-box-in-shop/
https://www.reddit.com/r/bladeandsoul/comments/44131b/so_what_happened_to_no_rng_boxes/
BUT i do believe the gaming companies will do everything in their power (even buying lobbying groups/politicians) to prevent that since it brings in soooo much money for these companies. Most likely the $$$ will triumph. Proof -->
In this game, Ive gotten lucky with RNG things and unlucky with others. Like maybe a year without opening a coaleascent ward on multi char. But then getting things like Metallic Dragonborn token in the RNG boxes.
Some more interesting reading.
http://www.engadget.com/2012/05/17/the-perfect-ten-the-truth-about-lockboxes/
"The lockbox phenomenon has been going on a lot longer in the East than it has in the West, and as such many of those countries have butted heads with the game companies over these shady practices. As a result, there have been laws and regulations put into place to hold back the companies from going full-on Ebenezer Scrooge on players, but American and European governments have yet to respond in kind.
I'm just saying that if the argument can be made that lockboxes are virtual gambling, then they're going to end up as subjects of court rulings and possible legal entanglements. We've already seen this happen, and there's no reason to think it won't occur again."
Fox Stevenson - Sandblast
Oh Wonder - Without You
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
- Dylan Thomas
I expect that, in fairness, at any point that I "roll the dice", I have a certain, specific chance, like everyone else.
That is what a dice roll means!
All the evidence says that this is not true, and that there are other factors at play:
- What time am I doing this? Apparently, good results happen for whole groups of people, *at specific times". Just watching the admin messages, this seems to be clearly true.
- Where am I doing this? Apparently, empty instances help - whatever that means....?
- What class etc am I? Some say that this helps. Not sure that it's true, but faith is already destroyed, based on the 2 points above.
As far as I'm concerned, the game allows me to exercise my chance to win something from any place at any time.
Absolutely, if I roll the roll at some random time, in some random place, and I have near zero chance, because "it's the wrong time/place/class/whatever", I'm being cheated.
But... they won't tell us, though it seems the admin messages kinda do...
So, it turns out that "good" RNGs are very computationally expensive, both time and CPU cycle-wise. Therefore, you'd expect that there is a pretty strong incentive to "cheat" on them in the coding. Add to this that the average developers/coders understanding of probability and statistics is likely based on a single undergraduate class (if that), and you have a recipe for some really terrible systems. An that is before you start considering that the devs generally don't really WANT true random results, and likely have constraints coded in on top of the (already likely poor) RNG implementation, for example to prevent "gaming" the system if anyone actually figures out the source of the seed value used to calculate the RN.
So, if you actually looked at the code used to determine "random" events in games, you'd probably find a LOT of really terribad design decisions/compromises.
Some possible approaches I've personally seen in code, or suspected in various games:
- seed values based on account or character IDs (makes some players artificially "lucky!")
- not using a RNG at all, instead a "bit shift" or similar mechanism. Super fast, but not really "random".
- using a sub-second time slice comparison instead of a RNG call; i.e. want a 1 in 100 "random" probability? Did the check occur with a timestamp ending in ".01", etc. With the assumption that calls are made at "random" times... which depending on the stack execution, generally isn't true... but it looks great in code.
- timed "global" random numbers (or seeds), with all other checks vs. some derivation of that value during a time interval.
- seeds or RN generated at instance creation and used by/applied to all subsequent calls.
- etc. or combinations of some or all of the above.
Basically, it's not terribly hard to generate a "random" result in code, *given certain assumptions*, And that's where things fall down, since those assumptions aren't necessarily true for all ACTUAL cases where the "RNG" is called...
Or something like that.
for some who never heard of it, allow me to explain, it was specific strange code bug when that character was made, type of name created, the class we choose, once made, it had some wierd "binary" factor.
i had seen a character get all the "hates", one of the dungeon got cleared of mobs once that character zone in, and got swarmed.
other game, that drop keys on mobs corpse, most players had stock up on keys and went to other dungeons to get top grade spells, random best armor or weapons.
that character with "wei-flagged" curse-like code, got terrible "RNG", and only end up pulling spell components and nothing else, not a singe armor or any crappy weapons, or a spell scrolls, wasted 10 keys just to get spell comps, he got frustrated, and played a newer character, and got different results, and got variety of mixes loots from the chest just like anyone else gets.
but when he plays to find out why this character was so unlucky, having the mobs swarming from local landblock, having extreme bad chest pulls, then he decided to delete that character and reolled with new names and class.
then few week later, other player started his new account, a newer player, rolled up and choose a name that was used and deleted by original owner, not knowing, the newer character with old name still got unlucky RNG, until the original player saw that old name he had use, he ask the new owner if that character has some bad luck and he was surprised that it still got unlucky streak like he never seen, same bug factor, only choice the new owner had was to delete and reroll with new names to get better luck.
i dont remember the name, but i heard about it back in spring of 2001, and the company had a special socail gathering party, there is few people mentioned few characters that end up with bad lucks, company think it was a myth until they tested on thier own time and they were surprised after they tested, and they call it "Wei-Flagged" and took out some flawed codes they created back in early 1998.
then they created unique mobs tagged as "Black Ferah" so that no one else use the name when creating characters.
there are some characters that had extremely lucky, getting best armor with multiple buffs and highest crit base weapons nearly everytime they open the chest, they are the ones had made them very rich.
But, I never claimed to *know* anything. I said that I had lot faith in a fair roll, irrespective of time of day etc.
It's kinda like you roll your dice and tell the Game master the result, but he informs you that you needn't bother telling him the result, because he's decided on a secret time that you can have a successful roll - and this ain't that time!
Who would think of that as being fair?
So, here's the thing: crowd behavior can influence the result. I've listened to many conversations about how people think the system works, and why it works in a particular way. You could, for example, get a clustered "lucky time" simple because enough people believe in it, and a broadcast win starts a spate of online box opening that results in a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Devs can easily come out and declare that any box opening has a set chance, irrespective of time of day, instance population etc etc. It's a pretty hot topic, with a lot real money being spent. But, what are we told?
I hear only crickets...
History is the biggest teacher of all time, that's why in the past it was elemental for kids at a young age to know at least their own one perfectly. Not so today...
All, who are seeking how RNG works in games, just 1 advice, take a look at history and read for yourself, who where those 2 persons, who invented modern day PR. To make things easy for history newbies, you got to search around ww2. These 2 people are so widely known amongst the PR people, that they even teach their methods in College or University, so no secret at all. I could recommend a good book on the subject, but hey won't, this is not a historian forum.
I saw an example a month ago, could have nearly exploded, when i heard the word RNG after it. The girl opened her daily boxes on more toons, rewards as follows: 3 epic mounts, 1 artifact, 1 coal. Same day she got 1 horn also and a coal ward regularly on same weekend each month. Talk about RNG...
Yes RNG needs a huge rework, cause at current state it borders tastelessness.
While some of us look at 2+ years on several toons, close to zero luck, many times closed chests, Wi Flag issues (had to delete 2 accounts with 2 GFs, stuck in progress or not working at all). Wi Flag is pretty hard stuff, mostly cause it's a bug and none like to admit it.
Another thing is what i call "broder line RNG". I see this more and more day in and out doing the Demonic HEs, yesterday for example (have the screenshot) a guy took a comfy seat in his lion throne and waited the HE to finish and collected the reward. I mean WTF, we work hard and some just sit (!) there and get away with the loot, what the heck.
So my advise would be to rework it, cause it stinks like a 3 day old dead fish and i have lost many many good friends cause of above mentioned RNG and some general unfair loot drops.
Robert E. Lee
I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself.
Winston Churchill
The human race is a herd. Here we are, unique, eternal aspects of consciousness with an infinity of potential, and we have allowed ourselves to become an unthinking, unquestioning blob of conformity and uniformity. A herd. Once we concede to the herd mentality, we can be controlled and directed by a tiny few. And we are.
David Icke