25% chance?

windquake

25% chance for upgrade...wasted 48 wards still didn't make an upgrade.WTF IS GOING ON?

mattsacre

The great and much vaunted RGN game dynamics? 25% is 25%, even if the first 47 times missed it don't mean the 48th is 50%.

nokthur

Consider yourself very lucky you hit the one in a million chance, literally.
0.75^48 = 1 * 10^-6

windquake

25% is 25% sure RGN but if you think it over even if it would have setup on 1000 number it would mean 250/1000 with others upgrades I made it would be like 3/50 + those 48 fails is like 3/100, so you are telling me that i will hit 247succ out of 900 tries left? You don't belive it yourself. 25% is still HIGH compare to like 10% I bet it isn't even 25% they have it on much lower numbers just to rip off people...

darkstarcrash

As noted above, 48 times is within the realm of probabilistic possibility.

However, Cryptic's RNG is notoriously streaky, so once I get to 2x expected fail rate (i.e., using 8 wards on a 25% chance), I just set that enchantment/artifact/whatever aside and do something else. Log in to another character, run a quest, refine something else -- just try to clear the bad streak.

santralafax

Forty-eight for a 25% chance is remakable, to say the least. Makes you wonder....

dsn1118

nokthur said:

Consider yourself very lucky you hit the one in a million chance, literally.
0.75^48 = 1 * 10^-6

Yeah but problem is everybody is hitting that 1 in the million chance.How is that possible? and how cant we hit this mcuh 1/1million chance in lockbox opening.

This happens in professions too.Success rate is 60% with 4 purple asset but hitting 40 %2 consecutive fail happens more often than 2 consecutive succesess

urabask

dsn1118 said:

nokthur said:

Consider yourself very lucky you hit the one in a million chance, literally.
0.75^48 = 1 * 10^-6

Yeah but problem is everybody is hitting that 1 in the million chance.How is that possible? and how cant we hit this mcuh 1/1million chance in lockbox opening.

This happens in professions too.Success rate is 60% with 4 purple asset but hitting 40 %2 consecutive fail happens more often than 2 consecutive succesess

It's not everyone. You just don't hear all the people that succeeded with 0 wards complaining.

minotaur2857

The RNG seems very streaky, my least probable is 10 straight failures on a 60% chance which is about 1/10K, also 46 attempts at a 20% chance which is only 1/90.

The one that worries me is my crafting. On 60+ attempts at 60% chances, I'm only getting a 40% success rate. Using a couple of standard statistical tricks, you'd reject the hypothesis at the normal 5% level that the probability is actually 60%.

ankabird1

nokthur said:

Consider yourself very lucky you hit the one in a million chance, literally.
0.75^48 = 1 * 10^-6

Lol

windquake said:

25% chance for upgrade...wasted 48 wards still didn't make an upgrade.WTF IS GOING ON?

Well i wasted many on %25 too and some of %10 changes passed on 1st try.

Its just RNG troll

thefabricant

dsn1118 said:

nokthur said:

Consider yourself very lucky you hit the one in a million chance, literally.
0.75^48 = 1 * 10^-6

Yeah but problem is everybody is hitting that 1 in the million chance.How is that possible? and how cant we hit this mcuh 1/1million chance in lockbox opening.

This happens in professions too.Success rate is 60% with 4 purple asset but hitting 40 %2 consecutive fail happens more often than 2 consecutive succesess

Cryptic's RNG is notoriously streaky, during the start of the 2x refinement, before they took the servers down for maintenance, I refined my dc sigil from legendary to mythic, my perfect vorpal to pure and 3 epic artifacts to legendary without using a single preservation ward between them. I got the good end of the rng stick and you got the sour one. Generally what I do when upgrading things is I see whether I got the good end or the sour end off the first couple of tries then either leave it or keep on going depending on whether its good or sour, as much as in a truly random environment it would make no difference, I don't think that Cryptic's random number generator is completely random and that it does have an element of streakyness built in.

mattsacre

darkstarcrash said:

As noted above, 48 times is within the realm of probabilistic possibility.

However, Cryptic's RNG is notoriously streaky, so once I get to 2x expected fail rate (i.e., using 8 wards on a 25% chance), I just set that enchantment/artifact/whatever aside and do something else. Log in to another character, run a quest, refine something else -- just try to clear the bad streak.

^ this, I've found if I fail more than a few times, it seems to be rutted to fail more, their RGN is quirky. I don't hit the "try again" button but completly close the refine panel and reopen it, or just go do something else for a while. It does sometimes go the other way as well, get a back to back succeed @ 25%, but then we never complain about that do we? When that happens I try and NOT close the refine panel and strike while the irons hot, hoping that same quirky RGN goes my way for a change.

suicidalgodot

urabask said:

dsn1118 said:

nokthur said:

Consider yourself very lucky you hit the one in a million chance, literally.
0.75^48 = 1 * 10^-6

Yeah but problem is everybody is hitting that 1 in the million chance.How is that possible? and how cant we hit this mcuh 1/1million chance in lockbox opening.

This happens in professions too.Success rate is 60% with 4 purple asset but hitting 40 %2 consecutive fail happens more often than 2 consecutive succesess

It's not everyone. You just don't hear all the people that succeeded with 0 wards complaining.

^^^^ this.

thefabricant

suicidalgodot said:

urabask said:

dsn1118 said:

nokthur said:

Consider yourself very lucky you hit the one in a million chance, literally.
0.75^48 = 1 * 10^-6

Yeah but problem is everybody is hitting that 1 in the million chance.How is that possible? and how cant we hit this mcuh 1/1million chance in lockbox opening.

This happens in professions too.Success rate is 60% with 4 purple asset but hitting 40 %2 consecutive fail happens more often than 2 consecutive succesess

It's not everyone. You just don't hear all the people that succeeded with 0 wards complaining.

^^^^ this.

@silverkelt
As I said above, I had the quirky positive rng earlier, definitely not complaining

zukn75

All hail the mighty RNGesus, we are but mere supplicants to him and his whims shall be praised by the faithful and deplored by the faithless. We pray to you oh benevolent RNGesus, may our upgrades succeed and our crits be great!

alaska

I had the 1% work for me on the 4th try two days ago. I was just playing around and figured ah what the heck ill burn 5 prot wards.. bam success.. I was like woooo.. of course i tried to upgrade to the next level which was also 1% and no such luck.. 20 trys later still nothing... I should have ran out to play the lottery after that!!
Its very streaky like others have said.. just because it says 75% doesn't mean you will try 100 times and hit 75 of them.. you would be very luck to hit 25! lol... i think the random generator is using a hypothetical engine powered by hamsters.

myles08807

The lottery is a tax on people who suck at math. I look forward to many of the previous posters on this thread continuing their support for education and the elderly.

mamalion1234

i made one savage 12 with 1 preservation. YOU lost now 48 but to the next enchant maybe you have my luck.

windquake

What about the theory of people who keep whispering me that there is an glitch that cause you to fail and that you need to wait 15 mins. Are you telling me this is "come up" ? I already got this msg from about 15 people. So there is actually an bug that cause you to keep failing and we have what? just keep to wasting our wards?

urabask

myles08807 said:

The lottery is a tax on people who suck at math. I look forward to many of the previous posters on this thread continuing their support for education and the elderly.

That's a terrible comparison unless you're making a comparison to some fictional world where people are required to play a lottery for basically everything in life.

windquake said:

What about the theory of people who keep whispering me that there is an glitch that cause you to fail and that you need to wait 15 mins. Are you telling me this is "come up" ? I already got this msg from about 15 people. So there is actually an bug that cause you to keep failing and we have what? just keep to wasting our wards?

It's just people being superstitious. There was a guy in PE chat trying to tell people that success rates were bugged and that it would always cost more in wards than you'd save via 2x RP. Obvious troll because upgrading artifact equipment to legendary will save you more than the cost of a coal ward.

schietindebux

0,0001% very very very very very Bad luck
Its buggy for sure, too many ppl got that Jackpot in a negative sense

beatannier

One time you burn 20 wards on 90% and other get no ward burned within 1%, just RNG.

ghoulz66

I missed 10 air slashes in a row. My opponent wiped my whole team using just sheer cold

zibadawa

minotaur2857 said:

The RNG seems very streaky, my least probable is 10 straight failures on a 60% chance which is about 1/10K, also 46 attempts at a 20% chance which is only 1/90.

The one that worries me is my crafting. On 60+ attempts at 60% chances, I'm only getting a 40% success rate. Using a couple of standard statistical tricks, you'd reject the hypothesis at the normal 5% level that the probability is actually 60%.

Reporting bias. That's all that needs to be said about any of this.

zukn75

Yep any one individual will be exceptionally unlikely to make enough attempts at box opening or profession manufacturing to make a statistically significant conclusion. Only aberrations tend to be be reported.

Therefore bow down before the all mighty RNGesus and offer up your prayers, and denounce the heretics and infidels who spread lies about his impartiality and benevolence.
For is it not written in Luck 2:12 "And last place shall recieve a Dragon egg and First a crappy refining stone, such was the will of RNGesus"

jonkoca

Lol

dufisto

i had 1 guildee get 3 mounts from lockboxes in the last 2 weeks. me, i fail 90% combines more often than i succeed..

namelesshero347

windquake said:

What about the theory of people who keep whispering me that there is an glitch that cause you to fail and that you need to wait 15 mins. Are you telling me this is "come up" ? I already got this msg from about 15 people. So there is actually an bug that cause you to keep failing and we have what? just keep to wasting our wards?

Given how the performance of the RNG algorithm can impact the company's profits, I think you can assume there is some global monitor system in place that ensure the algorithm is working well (like not too many winners or losers within a period) by rigging the results a bit. If you hit a streak, like losing more than 2 or 3 times the average tries you expect a success, probably a good to take a break and come back a few hours later.

zibadawa

namelesshero347 said:

Given how the performance of the RNG algorithm can impact the company's profits, I think you can assume there is some global monitor system in place that ensure the algorithm is working well (like not too many winners or losers within a period) by rigging the results a bit. If you hit a streak, like losing more than 2 or 3 times the average tries you expect a success, probably a good to take a break and come back a few hours later.

That doesn't really make sense. The profits will be hit much harder when people learn that something that was billed as a random chance can be gamed, and that this has long been exploited by the elite at the expense of those who didn't know.

What would be far more likely is a "failure cap": a 20% chance being guaranteed after 39 consecutive failures, for example (so it should take you 5 on average normally, but they alter it to never take more than 40 so the one guy with the world's worst luck doesn't go postal over it). That sort of thing removes the long tails, which can increase satisfaction by removing an arbitrary frustration, but can't really be exploited, as long as they do more to identify the event than "an event with a 20% chance", and instead do something like "upgrading this specific artifact to the next tier".

dufisto

zibadawa said:

namelesshero347 said:

Given how the performance of the RNG algorithm can impact the company's profits, I think you can assume there is some global monitor system in place that ensure the algorithm is working well (like not too many winners or losers within a period) by rigging the results a bit. If you hit a streak, like losing more than 2 or 3 times the average tries you expect a success, probably a good to take a break and come back a few hours later.

That doesn't really make sense. The profits will be hit much harder when people learn that something that was billed as a random chance can be gamed, and that this has long been exploited by the elite at the expense of those who didn't know.

What would be far more likely is a "failure cap": a 20% chance being guaranteed after 39 consecutive failures, for example (so it should take you 5 on average normally, but they alter it to never take more than 40 so the one guy with the world's worst luck doesn't go postal over it). That sort of thing removes the long tails, which can increase satisfaction by removing an arbitrary frustration, but can't really be exploited, as long as they do more to identify the event than "an event with a 20% chance", and instead do something like "upgrading this specific artifact to the next tier".

all computer rng's are built off a seed. frequency of the seed changing is unknown. so depending on the algorithm long streaks are not unheard of. you can complain all you want about the "elite". but players that put time in to learn game mechanics have always had and always will have an advantage. sure folks that play for fun win. but look at vegas. a perfect game of craps will only give you a 49% chance to win. but going in not knowing the game rules and odds and you'll more than likely lose your shirt.

duvaindess

there were times i had 7-8 failures in a row with a 50% chance, but once i had an unwarded 1% success, (i didn't care about the materials) so i can't complain.... anyway, i only use the wards from prayers, so i don't mind that much