Fix you RNG please

namelesshero347

5% chance and no success after 106 pres wards. I am giving up for tonight. Not the first time I've experience such a losing streak. I understand the system has to be somewhat rigged to ensure there are not too many winners, but this is ridiculous. I feel the that casinos are more honesty about the odds of their games. Certainly no long in the mood to continue spending money.

regenerde

... or just get a Coalescent Ward with 100% upgrade chance.

kahfa

the chance of losing 106 times at a 95% lose rate isn't astronomically small tbh (around .44%), you're just really unlucky

thefabricant

This is the only game I player where people complain so much about chance. Even if it isn't highly likely, its still possible for that to happen. You shouldn't expect to get something on the 20th try every single time, it will fluctuate in either direction, sometimes you will get really unlucky and sometimes you will get really lucky. Sometimes, you will be that 1 player who is always unlucky. Just remember, on average, across the whole server, you will see that it is a 5% chance. I know some players who get 1% chances in like 3 tries with pres wards over and over again and I know others who suffer with 50% chances. Just because you the unlucky person, doesn't mean that rng on the whole doesn't go both ways.

drkbodhi

BTW... it is not your traditional RNG. You get the same chances with each attempt. Your chances do not get better the more times you try. That would have saved you the wasted Preservation Wards and quite honestly... your choice to gamble may have cost you more money than just buying a Coalescent Ward.

It is not the RNGesus that needs fixing. The presumption we all have about the RNG will eventually pan out. That is like presuming that you should win something every time you pulled the lever on a slot machine.​​

namelesshero347

regenerde said:

... or just get a Coalescent Ward with 100% upgrade chance.

1 coal ward = 100 pres ward. If it happens so often that I don't hit once within 100 tries on 5% that I need to use a coal ward, then I don't have enough confidence in the post odds to continue playing.

kahfa said:

the chance of losing 106 times at a 95% lose rate isn't astronomically small tbh (around .44%), you're just really unlucky

Then I've been really unlucky so many times already. You'd think the devs can do a better job of smoothing this out. They probably way more concerned about having too many winners since it impacts profit. But having too many losers makes people lose confidence and stop playing.

rhoriangelus

A 5% chance to succeed means you have a 95% chance to fail. This is not cumulative, this is important. Every single time you press 'upgrade', you have a 95% chance to fail. Doing it 95 times in a row doesn't mean you're due a success.

It's like this - I flip a coin 3 times and each times it comes up heads. What are the chances it'll come up tails on the next flip?

1/2, or 50%, exactly what it would be at any time. Previous attempts have no bearing on your next attempt.

kahfa

namelesshero347 said:

Then I've been really unlucky so many times already. You'd think the devs can do a better job of smoothing this out. They probably way more concerned about having too many winners since it impacts profit. But having too many losers makes people lose confidence and stop playing.

since, as thefabricant said, the 5% chance can be seen when the whole server is observed, that must mean that someone is very lucky in their upgrading.

ironzerg79

Last night I had a guildie make an enchant on one click with no wards just to see. 1% chance to succeed, and it did.

But you don't see this forum filling up with people talking about how they beat incredible odds. With thousands and thousands of permutations, someone is going to get caught in an unbelievably bad streak, while someone else is getting incredibly lucky.

Random is random.

Your bad luck doesn't mean the system is broken. In fact, it probably means the exact opposite...that it's actually working.

namelesshero347

ironzerg79 said:

Last night I had a guildie make an enchant on one click with no wards just to see. 1% chance to succeed, and it did.

Wish I had the resources to go naked on a 1% upgrade.

ironzerg79 said:

Your bad luck doesn't mean the system is broken. In fact, it probably means the exact opposite...that it's actually working.

A few months ago, it took me 59 pres wards to do a 10% chance upgrade. I think the probability of that is less than the 0.44 kahfa mentioned. So I am really unlucky. But after seeing all the various dungeon/lair chest bugs with stuck rewards, even if I am willing to throw money at it until success, I won't because I feel I may be, in some way, wi-flagged to fail until some condition changes.

dufisto

rhoriangelus said:

A 5% chance to succeed means you have a 95% chance to fail. This is not cumulative, this is important. Every single time you press 'upgrade', you have a 95% chance to fail. Doing it 95 times in a row doesn't mean you're due a success.

It's like this - I flip a coin 3 times and each times it comes up heads. What are the chances it'll come up tails on the next flip?

1/2, or 50%, exactly what it would be at any time. Previous attempts have no bearing on your next attempt.

this is basic math, while the odds of getting heads or tails for any given flip are always 50/50, the odds of getting x number of heads in a row are cumulative. so a 5% chance means you should succeed 1 in 20 attempts on average.

heres some reading for you on the subject. http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html

rhoriangelus

dufisto said:

rhoriangelus said:

A 5% chance to succeed means you have a 95% chance to fail. This is not cumulative, this is important. Every single time you press 'upgrade', you have a 95% chance to fail. Doing it 95 times in a row doesn't mean you're due a success.

It's like this - I flip a coin 3 times and each times it comes up heads. What are the chances it'll come up tails on the next flip?

1/2, or 50%, exactly what it would be at any time. Previous attempts have no bearing on your next attempt.

this is basic math, while the odds of getting heads or tails for any given flip are always 50/50, the odds of getting x number of heads in a row are cumulative. so a 5% chance means you should succeed 1 in 20 attempts on average.

heres some reading for you on the subject. http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/intro_probability.html

Yes, you have a greater chance of getting a specific result within a higher number of tries, but that just means "you have less chance of getting x result so many times in a row". You have less chance of that happening, yes, but that doesn't mean that after 10,000 flips of all heads your next few flips HAVE to be tails. And after 106 fails on 5%, your next few attempts don't HAVE to be a success.

The only way to get an accurate representation of the odds of something like this are with a large enough sample size, anyway - we're talking in the thousands, tens of thousands. There's going to be streaks of various results, that doesn't mean the results aren't random. And a small sample size of 100 attempts that all failed isn't nearly a big enough sample.

ironzerg79

namelesshero347 said:

I won't because I feel I may be, in some way, wi-flagged to fail until some condition changes.

So you're blaming a math mistake in a 16 year old game for the formula used to calculate aggro? It's extremely clear what the "wi-flag" was when the mistake was determined. It's not some naturally occurring fluke that affects people's luck.

Unless somehow the Devs are using a formula to calculate success chance based on some sort of arbitrary flag assigned during character creation, then it doesn't apply. And even then you would have to consistently fail on every single refinement attempt against all odds for this to be the case.

thefabricant

Some basic probability stuff regarding failing for those who want it: (assuming this is distributed via a binomial distribution)
Failing a certain number of times in a row: P(Fail)^number of attempts

Also remember, that whilst you are really unlikely to fail by a certain attempt number, on that attempt, the probability of failing is exactly the same. So don't assume on attempt number 19 that attempt number 20 is surely a success, you just as likely to fail as you were the previous 19 times.

Once again, the 5% chance is on average for everyone, so if the devs were really lazy they could have it so that 95% of the population never got a success and 5% always got a success and it would still be a 5%. Over all, you just unlucky but remember that out there somewhere is someone who is really lucky instead.

hedgebet

ironzerg79 said:

Last night I had a guildie make an enchant on one click with no wards just to see. 1% chance to succeed, and it did.

But you don't see this forum filling up with people talking about how they beat incredible odds. With thousands and thousands of permutations, someone is going to get caught in an unbelievably bad streak, while someone else is getting incredibly lucky.

Random is random.

Your bad luck doesn't mean the system is broken. In fact, it probably means the exact opposite...that it's actually working.

I have made more than a few 1% chance with no ward at all. Conversely I have failed a 50% chance -- I think it was 60 times in a row as I posted about it in my rage but I also indicated at that time the significant number of 1% I did with nothing too. I was accused of being dishonest in my report of the 60 (or so) fails in a row on the 50% but not the 1% successes without a ward which shows how perception and bias comes into play when people consider these things.

namelesshero347

ironzerg79 said:

So you're blaming a math mistake in a 16 year old game for the formula used to calculate aggro? It's extremely clear what the "wi-flag" was when the mistake was determined. It's not some naturally occurring fluke that affects people's luck.

Unless somehow the Devs are using a formula to calculate success chance based on some sort of arbitrary flag assigned during character creation, then it doesn't apply. And even then you would have to consistently fail on every single refinement attempt against all odds for this to be the case.

I didn't mean the wi-flag. I should have said some wi-flag-like flag. The flag doesn't have to be on a character or account. Could be some global mechanism that massages all results to "fail" for a period of time to bring things into balance if there were too many really luck people recently. All the dungeon chest bugs seen with stuck rewards are probably bugs in the system that massages the results of the drops.

thefabricant

namelesshero347 said:

ironzerg79 said:

So you're blaming a math mistake in a 16 year old game for the formula used to calculate aggro? It's extremely clear what the "wi-flag" was when the mistake was determined. It's not some naturally occurring fluke that affects people's luck.

Unless somehow the Devs are using a formula to calculate success chance based on some sort of arbitrary flag assigned during character creation, then it doesn't apply. And even then you would have to consistently fail on every single refinement attempt against all odds for this to be the case.

I didn't mean the wi-flag. I should have said some wi-flag-like flag. The flag doesn't have to be on a character or account. Could be some global mechanism that massages all results to "fail" for a period of time to bring things into balance if there were too many really luck people recently. All the dungeon chest bugs seen with stuck rewards are probably bugs in the system that massages the results of the drops.

Occam's razor tells us we can ignore all of these complex reasons as the simplest reason (Bad luck) is most likely the correct one, rather then some conspiracy like mechanic involving convoluted tricks implemented by the devs.