Ok, I have problem. So I have all my gear refined to 5th rank to 6th going at 40%. I've failed twice already. Needless to say it is getting expensive and can only go up. What is the best way to get past that 40% mark.
The cost of Preservation Wards versus not having them makes a lot of sense for 5 to 6 (and above_ but they do cost something, barring "free ones" such as from invocation.
Wards are 10Z or 2600AD, or with some gold to horse comparison for it at 3G each in trade, 2200AD or thereabouts. So you could say 2400 each give or take for each failure that uses one up. Playing the odds simplified, a 40% refine chance fails three out of five times. Thus on average each 5 upgrade attempts would get 2 successes, costing 7200AD in wards for 3 failures and two MOP (say 12000AD) for 2 successes. If the odds go that way, the wards save you losing 18000 for a cost of 7200 essentially. If you total that, you can expect to pay about 10K per upgrade in that 2/5S 3/5F scenario with wards. A considerably higher 18K each without wards.
(In 10 tries with 40%, the center distributions are mostly likely 3 or 4 or 5 with 4 being the best chance, but 3 and 5 not too far, for a total of 83.4% chance of those three. successes/%chance for all above 10% are ≈ 2/12 3/21 4/25 5/20 6/11 (94.5%) and the odds of getting 0, 1, 7, 8, 9 or 10 successes at about 5.5% total, no success (.6%) a better chance than all success (.01%) )
What a numpty I am, I used my coal ward to upgrade my main weapon as it was 50% and I was rushing and had no pres's! It was a free bound to account one but still...................! Noob or what!
Comments
or sooner if there is another Thurs Maint.
What he said.
^This
Wards are 10Z or 2600AD, or with some gold to horse comparison for it at 3G each in trade, 2200AD or thereabouts. So you could say 2400 each give or take for each failure that uses one up. Playing the odds simplified, a 40% refine chance fails three out of five times. Thus on average each 5 upgrade attempts would get 2 successes, costing 7200AD in wards for 3 failures and two MOP (say 12000AD) for 2 successes. If the odds go that way, the wards save you losing 18000 for a cost of 7200 essentially. If you total that, you can expect to pay about 10K per upgrade in that 2/5S 3/5F scenario with wards. A considerably higher 18K each without wards.
(In 10 tries with 40%, the center distributions are mostly likely 3 or 4 or 5 with 4 being the best chance, but 3 and 5 not too far, for a total of 83.4% chance of those three. successes/%chance for all above 10% are ≈ 2/12 3/21 4/25 5/20 6/11 (94.5%) and the odds of getting 0, 1, 7, 8, 9 or 10 successes at about 5.5% total, no success (.6%) a better chance than all success (.01%) )
https://youtube.com/channel/UCHpxPsGP_kfPXaW622qSXyA