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Forums > Home› Neverwinter Discussion › Player Feedback (PC)

Upgrading Success...

engelgrondengelgrond Member Posts: 22 Arc User
edited June 2015 in Player Feedback (PC)
So I finally managed to get all my artifacts to lvl99. So far I've burned 42 pres wards trying to upgrade my DC sigil to legendary and still no success, and that's the first artifact trying to upgrade to legendary! On Preview I had success with only 4 wards! On Owlbear I got a success with JUST 1 try!
Post edited by zebular on

Comments

  • karakla1karakla1 Member Posts: 1,355 Arc User
    edited June 2015
    Make we a small excursion into mathematical statistic:

    To get your Artifact to Legendary is a 10% Chance. This means on an average one out of ten is a success which means every 10 preservation wards one success. BUT this is ONLY the average success rate, there is a high possibility that your outcome is not average because the 10% chance is calculated among thousands of outcome.

    For example, even if you had a 50% chance you could have had lost 7+ preservation wards till your statistical chance to lose is so small that it automatically must be a success. That is one reason they allow you in a Casino on roulette go for black or red. If you would set 10 $ and lose you must pay the double amount of money to get your lose back. If you lose 8 times you must pay 5.120 $ on the ninth bet to get a positive outcome and this is nothing really unusual.

    So for 10% i have now not the datas but i think it is around 50-60 Green Wards loos that you must win the next outcome.

    Edit: And yes. It is possible to use preservation wards on 1% chances. Some of my guildmates get a lesser weapon enchantment after the sixth try. He was pretty lucky with this outcome.
    plat.png
    Platypus wielding a giant hammer, your argument is invalild!
  • sasagerusasageru Member Posts: 269 Arc User
    It took me no less than 56 attempts to upgrade my belt up from legendary... it is a painful process for sure.
    DPS Rogue | Heal/Buff Cleric
     
  • d4rthd00fusd4rthd00fus Member Posts: 453 Arc User
    It's widely believed that Cryptic adds additional modifiers to the success rate during the RP events so the 10% which is already inaccurate during normal play now becomes a much lower chance. I upgraded 11 enchants to R10 during the event and 9 of them took well over 30 wards, 1 took 22 and one took 2. Some will tell you that it all evens out in the end. They are wrong. Cryptic never gives without taking away (usually just the taking away part) so if you want to play the x2 RP smart dump all the RP in to what you want to upgrade and wait until the event ends to actually do the upgrade.
  • cjh1983cjh1983 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 229 Arc User
    d4rthd00fus wrote: »
    It's widely believed ...

    You know it's a complete load when an argument starts with 'it's widely believed' - Are we to 'believe' one entirely subjective experience tells you that there is some grand conspiracy to make players buy an item that costs less than 10 zen each?

    I did 9 enchants to 10 from mostly rank 7's (so 25%, 20% and 10%) with less than 100 wards, maybe cryptic just likes me better than you.

  • engelgrondengelgrond Member Posts: 22 Arc User
    cjh1983 wrote: »
    d4rthd00fus wrote: »
    It's widely believed ...

    You know it's a complete load when an argument starts with 'it's widely believed' - Are we to 'believe' one entirely subjective experience tells you that there is some grand conspiracy to make players buy an item that costs less than 10 zen each?

    I did 9 enchants to 10 from mostly rank 7's (so 25%, 20% and 10%) with less than 100 wards, maybe cryptic just likes me better than you.

    Last time I tried to upgrade an enchant (pre-mod6) from r7 to r8 I wasted over 30 wards with no success. From that moment I abandoned the hope of upgrading my own enchants.

  • namelesshero347namelesshero347 Member Posts: 2,109 Arc User
    Since RNG performance impacts their PnL, I think it can be assumed that there is some system in place to ensure there are not too many "winners" overall. If there are too many winners within a time frame, the remaining tries probably all lose automatically to bring the percentage in line. What I do is once I go pass the average number of expected tries for success, I go do something else for a while.
  • d4rthd00fusd4rthd00fus Member Posts: 453 Arc User
    cjh1983 wrote: »
    d4rthd00fus wrote: »
    It's widely believed ...

    You know it's a complete load when an argument starts with 'it's widely believed' - Are we to 'believe' one entirely subjective experience tells you that there is some grand conspiracy to make players buy an item that costs less than 10 zen each?

    I did 9 enchants to 10 from mostly rank 7's (so 25%, 20% and 10%) with less than 100 wards, maybe cryptic just likes me better than you.

    You are probably right as it IS WIDELY BELIEVED that Cryptic also makes some accounts with different modifiers on them so they have an advantage over other accounts. Some folks open 10 lockboxes and get 3 epics, some open hundreds and never get a thing. You can call it luck of the draw, but its a shady business generally called wi-flagging. My account is likely wi-flagged so I get the poor results from the RNG. Accounts like yours are likely charmed accounts so you and folks like you can go around forums talking about what good luck you have and how everyone else must just be wrong.
  • putzboy78putzboy78 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,950 Arc User
    If there is a modifier then it is nolonger "RNG". lol

    On preview or owlbear the odds are probably set higher. Why, because those are the places where you can test the statistic with a significant number of attempts to prove they are not within their threshold. You can not hold a viable argument based on having one 10% upgrade take 42 pres wards (btw this happened to me this weekend also) because they sample size is not statistically significant. That being said run your results through a binomial calculator if you want to truly see how "unlucky" you are. 41 failures on a 10% chance has a likelihood of 1.3% chance of occurring. I had it happen this weekend, you had it happen this weekend. Wonder how many people got it on the first try to make up for it.

    Same happens on the professions. 60% chance of success and I've had 8+ failures in a row. That's a 0.07% probability.

    I have heard that the odds of "success" for RNG is also contributed to by your RL financial contributions to the game.
    Not sure if i believe it but i can say I've seen a lot more success with artifact drops, etc from guild-mates who are high zen purchasers and play a lot less that the F2P players in guild who spend much more time in game farming for their AD.
  • d4rthd00fusd4rthd00fus Member Posts: 453 Arc User
    As you know a computer cannot make true random numbers and the ones that approximate true randomness are expensive and resource intensive. The kind of RNG used by games needing to make millions of calculations a second are not true RNG but most likely lookup tables which provides pseudo random numbers and are prone to streaks but are also much easier to apply modifiers to so the desired results can be tweaked as needed while still appearing to be randomized. It's disingenuous to call what Neverwinter (or most games) uses a RNG, but it's an easier concept to grasp than the convoluted mess that it is likely using.
  • rversantrversant Member Posts: 896 Arc User
    My artifacts from 99-100 took more wards than 139-140. lol.
    People are way too negative, Why cant we just all get along.


    Drunken Goose of MidNight Express. - 3.3k Paladin , 3.6k GWF , 3.1k GF,
  • neirgaraneirgara Member Posts: 334 Arc User
    d4rthd00fus wrote: »
    It's widely believed that Cryptic adds additional modifiers to the success rate during the RP events so the 10% which is already inaccurate during normal play now becomes a much lower chance. I upgraded 11 enchants to R10 during the event and 9 of them took well over 30 wards, 1 took 22 and one took 2. Some will tell you that it all evens out in the end. They are wrong. Cryptic never gives without taking away (usually just the taking away part) so if you want to play the x2 RP smart dump all the RP in to what you want to upgrade and wait until the event ends to actually do the upgrade.


    I upgraded 6 Artifacts over the weekend several times (from green to blue, blue to purple and purple to orange, one also from legendary to mythic). I had 12 upgrades. It took me 15 wards for the upgrade to mythic and 31 more for everything else.

    Yes, I'm a very lucky girl (still I don't win in the lottery -.-). But it shows, everything evens out in the end. Just not necessarily for one player...

    I know, most of the time it's the easiest way to just blame Cryptic for everything, but that does not mean it's the right thing to do. :)
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  • b3llist0rb3llist0r Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 191 Arc User
    edited June 2015
    10% chance

    Binomial distribution
    p=0.1 (chance for one try)
    k=1 (number of successes)
    n= the magic number (number of tries)

    Success chance (cumulative upper distribution) for several n (tries)
    1 -> 10% | 2 -> 19% | 3 -> 27% | 4 -> 34% | 5 -> 41%
    6 -> 47% | 7 -> 52% | 8 -> 57% | 9 -> 61% | 10 -> 65%
    12 -> 72% | 14 -> 77% | 16 -> 82% | 18 -> 85% | 20 -> 88% | 25 -> 93%
    30 -> 95.8% | 40 -> 98.5% | 50 -> 99.7%

    So let´s face the truth... pen&paper style: " Okay dude, roll a d100".. "Oh you rolled a 7! You loose 25 wards!"

    The chance to do it with first try (10%) is the same as to need more than 22 tries (no success at 90%)...

    //Bellistor
  • c0mat0se60c0mat0se60 Member Posts: 3 Arc User
    I succeeded with a preservation ward with a 5% chance of success, on my first try. Two days ago.
  • lilhamletlilhamlet Member Posts: 260 Arc User
    edited June 2015
    I failed 2x 90% chances in a row this weekend, and failed a 50% 5 times in a row. Also got some 10% chances in under 5 attempts. It's just the pain of Pseudo-RNG. I'm just glad I buy my wards with AD.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 12,403 Arc User
    edited June 2015
    I have just make an Artifact to legendary in about 14 tries. I bought my wards using 15% coupons from Zen store. The Zen were converted from AD. A lot cheaper this way than buying from AH.
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
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