Key Prices, Z Prices

roughbearmattach

So, today, saw keys selling in bulk for 68 G.
Zen was selling for only 395 Q each.

These are the lowest prices I've seen in years.

Discuss.

nbkxs

Finally the Q exchange is coming down to a reasonable level. I think the key prices are dropping due to the fact that all of the reliable sources of gold are gone, and you're left with only smashes. Most of the large sums of money that people saved up over the years are drying up, and now there's not much left to go around. The result is that no one can afford anything anymore@previous prices, and it's forcing everything to come down just so that people can afford it.​​

decorumfriends

It's dipped below 400 several times over the last couple of years, but it hasn't stayed there long. That said, this drop was slow and gradual over the last couple of months, rather than a reaction to an event glut, so it's more likely to "stick".

historiphile

I don't watch the zen market that close, but the key price is pretty normal in the middle period between two lockboxes. They'll go back up again once the next lockbox release is imminent and for the 2-3 weeks after.

themightyzenith

AH isn't a good indication of prices all the time with all items, but for keys it's a pretty good indication. They're back up to 81g minimum in there now. They'll be higher when the next lockbox comes out after Foxbatcon.

roughbearmattach

themightyzenith said:

AH isn't a good indication of prices all the time with all items, but for keys it's a pretty good indication. They're back up to 81g minimum in there now. They'll be higher when the next lockbox comes out after Foxbatcon.

I agree that key prices drop towards the end of a lockbox run, but I've never seen so many keys selling for so low, for about a week. I have bought keys, on the AH (which often is higher priced than trade chat) for 70 G or less for the past week.

As for the Z price, it has had a slow downward trend to a little below 400 Q for a few weeks. As someone who generally converts all Q to Z for a couple years, consistent prices at or under 400 is something new.

guyhumual

Well clearly adding things that people want to the Q store is helping to make Q desirable.

decorumfriends

Although it makes me want to cringe sometimes, when I think about the prices when I started 4 years ago (somewhere between 150-200, IIRC).

themightyzenith

roughbearmattach said:

I agree that key prices drop towards the end of a lockbox run, but I've never seen so many keys selling for so low, for about a week. I have bought keys, on the AH (which often is higher priced than trade chat) for 70 G or less for the past week.

I'm not disagreeing with you over keys being sold at their all-time lowest prices both in and outside the AH tho', I've seen plenty of those types of trades being offered in Trade channel and Zone recently.

I can't shake the impression that there are the same few people (anyone that pays attention to these trade ads can see the same few @handles coming up again and again) that are advertising vast amounts of keys at very low prices thus severely undercutting others and forcing (either inadvertently or otherwise) them to lower their prices just to compete.

I have also seen two players opening hundreds of lockboxes at a time and then advertising their gains at rock-bottom prices (twitchy finger emotes at 1G each and Cyber Cowboy costume sets at 150 G each for example) with the caveat "cause I can " at the end of their Trade posts, thus driving down other prices. I also saw (in Zone chat) one of these informing the other of an exploit that exists in opening lockboxes that increases drop rates. Whether this exploit is real or just in their heads is unknown to me.

Now, I’m not saying that any of the above actions are wrong (apart from informing other players of a possible exploit, of course). I’m just saying that I have observed some strange and unusual activities from the same few people recently.

sterga

This is the BS that happens when almost everything of value is in a lockbox. There basically isn't anything left to get by PLAYING THE GAME to sell for globals. I dropped our costume contest to once a month because farming for globals is such a piece of ****. No one likes doing it. But the best way to make those globals is to buy keys or open lockboxes, which is 100% garbage for those of use who run community events. Even worse is seeing how the economy is heavily influenced by people with boatloads of money to throw around.

Cryptic f---ed up hard core on the in-game economy and they keep making it worse.

spinnytop

I mean, you looked at the price once. Make some charts and graphs of the prices over like a month or two and we can have a pow wow over it.

pwestolemyname

sterga said:

This is the BS that happens when almost everything of value is in a lockbox. There basically isn't anything left to get by PLAYING THE GAME to sell for globals.

It's also what happens when nearly all the really good stuff sells for GCR which drops from only a very few sources, and all of the best gear is BoP, rather than BoE. As far as I can tell, CO hates the AH and kind of wishes it didn't exist. BoP burns the AH.

pantagruel01

pwestolemyname said:

sterga said:

This is the BS that happens when almost everything of value is in a lockbox. There basically isn't anything left to get by PLAYING THE GAME to sell for globals.

It's also what happens when nearly all the really good stuff sells for GCR which drops from only a very few sources, and all of the best gear is BoP, rather than BoE. As far as I can tell, CO hates the AH and kind of wishes it didn't exist. BoP burns the AH.

Both statements are failing to understand MMO economics. Simply put, if globals couldn't buy anything of value, the prices of keys (in globals) would be up, not down. The fact that prices for keys in currency are down means one or more of the following:

1. The supply of keys is up for some reason, such as some new whales coming into the community or some sort of exploit that generates keys. The fact that the Q exchange is also down, despite all the Q that is generated by cosmics, suggests a general increase in the supply of Z.
   
2. The demand for keys is low for some reason; this commonly happens at the end of a lockbox, and some of the filler stuff in lockboxes (e.g. mod boxes, merc gear boxes) is less appealing than it used to be.
   
3. The supply of globals is down for some reason, such as a source being plugged.
   
4. The demand for globals is up for some reason. This seems unlikely, the primary G sinks in the game are retcons, costume changes, and auction fees, and none of them have changed in years.
   

kamokami

pantagruel01 said:

The supply of keys is up for some reason, such as some new whales coming into the community or some sort of exploit that generates keys. The fact that the Q exchange is also down, despite all the Q that is generated by cosmics, suggests a general increase in the supply of Z.

IMO, it's this. The gold sellers such as MMO Cove have been highly active and the fact that they continue to remain so indicates that they are seeing success. The spammer's prices seem to hover around $0.05 per key. As opposed to the Z store being $1 per key. That's a 20X difference.

I really dislike how this is killing off revenue for the game and hope that whatever loophole they are using to generate keys or zen gets shut down for good.

The loophole likely revolves around generating either keys or zen directly or generating something that can be easily be converted to keys or zen....such as questionite.

roughbearmattach

spinnytop said:

I mean, you looked at the price once. Make some charts and graphs of the prices over like a month or two and we can have a pow wow over it.

Sometimes, a local min or max is more interesting than the rest of the graph. Didn't you ever take calc?


Today, keys on AH for 84 G, and Z selling for 385 Q


P.S.
I, too, have heard parts of discussions about ways to get cheap keys.

sterga

pantagruel01 wrote: »

Both statements are failing to understand MMO economics. Simply put, if globals couldn't buy anything of value, the prices of keys (in globals) would be up, not down. The fact that prices for keys in currency are down means one or more of the following:

You're statement fails to understand how credit cards work.

If I buy 100 keys with real money and sell them for 50g each, I just gained 5,000 globals. If I buy 100 keys with real money and open 100 lockboxs, I can probably make a whole lot more in globals by selling all of that crap for super cheap. I can buy 1000 zen and undercut everyone to get Q for some items I want.

Someone with a deep wallet probably doesn't give a toss about how the economy is supposed to work. They just want to get fast and easy globals and questionite. Cryptic allows them to do it because they only care about making money and not tedious things like making sure the in-game economy isn't a hot mess.​​

riverocean

I'm quite convinced it's a combo of Whales and Gold Farmers.

Questionite is incredibly easy to buy and to farm. If I wanted to (but I'm much too lazy) I could run 10 toons through the Alert Dailies alone and net 20,000 questionite a day. Then convert that into ZEN. I imagine an enterprising Gold Farmer could do much better than that.

Plus, I've noticed Whale players in Zone either opening up lockboxes in a frenzy (thank you award spam). Or offering to sell really good box drops for ridiculously low prices. I think that's probably Strega's "don't care I gotta credit card" players.

decorumfriends

Statistical analysis of player run markets are weak because people can do irrational things for reasons all their own, if the money doesn't mean anything to them. Just roll with the flow. Adapt. Improvise. Overcome.

violetnychus

There are many factors but including high mods in the cosmic drops definitely contributed.

The drop started then.

Apparently the devs nerfed the cosmic drops FINALLY and now mods resemble the prices from before the cosmics.

I personally went from a frequent box opener to virtually never after that.

roughbearmattach

The interaction among Q, Z, G, and keys is complex, to be sure. If the game continues to make good money (such as spent by whales), then the low Q to Z ratio and price of keys is a benefit to many players.

I wonder if other games have four inter-fungible currencies like these, including two that can be purchased for actual money (Z and keys).

roughbearmattach

Keys selling at 85 G, but no Q Exchange online this evening.

roughbearmattach

Keys still 85 G, 393 Q for 1 Z

roughbearmattach

Keys at 80 G, 389 Q for 1 Z

roughbearmattach

Keys at 74 G, 393 Q for 1 Z

roughbearmattach

Keys at 75 G, 399 Q for 1 Z

spinnytop

Dammit I want charts and graphs so I can use that bachelors in accounting o3o

pwestolemyname

Another thing to consider is the abundance of Q thanks to Cosmics. It used to take me forever to save up Q just grinding Alerts and Rampages. Now, with the Cosmics, I can easily be overflowing with Q accidentally. Cosmic week, a couple weeks ago, increased the amount of Q in-game even more. I'm not sure how this relates to prices of other things, but it is a contributing factor.

As for me, I don't really mind the low key prices. If I want to spend some leftover Globs for keys, it means I get more.

roughbearmattach

Keys 71 G, 410 Q for 1 Z

jennymachx

A player-run free market working as intended. Prices for certain things fluctuate according to players having the absolute freedom to appraise whatever it is they want to sell away. I don't see any cause for concern or a reason to cry doom if that's what the thread is implying.

sterga

Lol. "Working as intended"? I guess mangling your own in-game economy and creating a situation where a single person can drastically impact AH sales can be considered that.

If some of the best gear in the game wasn't in lockboxes, you wouldn't have situations where anything inferior didn't tank in value with the introduction of a deep wallet. Cryptic made it more tedious to get gear by playing the game at the same time being super easy to just outright buy something better with real money. That's not player controlled, that's Cryptic controlled. Taking away or making options suck to push people into the cash shop is not a free market and certainly isn't a player-run one.

If the market was really player run, I could make and sell my own products. But I can only buy and sell what Cryptic wants me too and those things are almost always in a lockbox.​​

jennymachx

sterga said:

Lol. "Working as intended"? I guess mangling your own in-game economy and creating a situation where a single person can drastically impact AH sales can be considered that.

And since when is anyone participating in the AH is expected to take into consideration the kind of effects on the in-game economy that can happen when they put up an item for sale? Since when is anyone supposed to have this moral obligation to make sure that they don't "mangle" the in-game economy?

Trades are impersonal and self-serving in nature, not altruistic, unless the buyer is a friendly associate who has a personal relationship with the seller. Seller obtains goods with strictly their own effort and/or investment, seller gets to dictate the terms of their sale. If they want to make a quick cheap buck by selling said goods at a fraction of the price of what others are selling at, its their prerogative. Free market. Player-run. Working as intended.

sterga said:

If some of the best gear in the game wasn't in lockboxes, you wouldn't have situations where anything inferior didn't tank in value with the introduction of a deep wallet. Cryptic made it more tedious to get gear by playing the game at the same time being super easy to just outright buy something better with real money. That's not player controlled, that's Cryptic controlled. Taking away or making options suck to push people into the cash shop is not a free market and certainly isn't a player-run one.

Well the reality is that F2P business models have everything to do with making things super easy to obtain with money up front.

Lockboxes aren't going to go away, as long as people keep investing in keys and supporting the business model.

sterga said:

If the market was really player run, I could make and sell my own products. But I can only buy and sell what Cryptic wants me too and those things are almost always in a lockbox.​​

Regardless, it's still player-run. Cryptic just controls the kind of digital assets players can own, just like any other game. Since its a F2P game, certain valuable assets are expected to be locked behind a pay-wall, or a huge amount of grinding to substitute for avoiding the pay-wall.

sterga

jennymachx wrote: »

And since when is anyone participating in the AH is expected to take into consideration the kind of effects on the in-game economy that can happen when they put up an item for sale? Since when is anyone supposed to have this moral obligation to make sure that they don't "mangle" the in-game economy?

Uh, I was talking about Cryptic not the players. The in-game economy is theirs to control and balance. They allow players to have those impacts on the game because of the way the choose to monetize and how it is so heavily prioritized over the rest of the game. There are things Cryptic COULD do to de-emphasize lockboxes and their associated content, but they've done the opposite.

Cryptic just controls the kind of digital assets players can own, just like any other game.

Really now? Cryptic controls more than that. They also control rarity, how it's bound, cost, where items are added, restrictions on acquisition, the currencies that exist to buy items, rarity of that currency, restrictions on that currency's use, and other things that I've surely not mentioned. That is a great deal of control over their economy. Especially since controlling the in-game economy can and does impact the money they can make due to the choices Cryptic has made.

Think about all of the things done over the years that have changed the in-game economy. Price hikes of all gear gained by playing the game. Huge increase in character bound and BoP items. Reduced ability to gain globals by playing the game. Increase in new currencies. Increase in temporary events. Devaluing old currency. Reduced drop rarity. Increase in lockboxes. Shifting Ultimates into lockbox exclusives. Increased quality of lockbox costume sets VS non-lockbox sets. Shifting long desired stances into lockbox exclusives (arcane flight/emotes). Increase requirements on gaining certain items from playing the game (j-gear, cosmic cosmetics).

There are so, so many things Cryptic has done and will do to control the in-game economy. Thinking players have any control is a fantasy. A free market cannot exist in a place where one entity has absolute control over everything.

Just because Cryptic chooses to monetize the game in a certain way, does not make that the only option nor the best option. Taking someone's money is easy. Trying to be balanced is not.​​

jennymachx

sterga said:

Just because Cryptic chooses to monetize the game in a certain way, does not make that the only option nor the best option. Taking someone's money is easy. Trying to be balanced is not.​​

Yeah I get it. You think lockboxes are bad. They're a plague on the game to you. Hey, I was around when grab bags were first introduced. I was one of the very vocal people on the forums to criticize Cryptic for resorting to gamble boxes, but tell that to all the people who consistently put up keys for sale in the AH for how many years now.

When there's an obvious demand for keys at the AH, then it's a sign that lockboxes are an accepted direction for Cryptic to take the game. I'm sure we all have our personal opinions on the ways Cryptic "should" monetize the game, but as it stands currently lockboxes are objectively making Cryptic money, and I don't see why Cryptic should drop that business model entirely.

If for some reason there's a drastic drop in key purchases at the Z-store during future lockbox releases and near disappearance of keys from the AH, then sure, that's good grounds for push for a complete dismantling of the whole lockbox thing. As it stands currently I don't see any sign of that happening, and not anytime soon.

Unknown

This content has been removed.

roughbearmattach

jennymachx said:

I don't see any cause for concern or a reason to cry doom if that's what the thread is implying.

The thread certainly isn't implying doom. For instance, masses of folks buying and flooding the market with keys is quite good for the game.

I just noticed a recent drop in prices, and was curious as to what people thought.

sterga

jennymachx wrote: »

You think lockboxes are bad.

You get a triple facepalm for how hard you fail at mind reading.

It's not that lockboxes exists, it's how they've been implemented into the game and the heavy focus on them to the detriment of other game systems. Path of Exile has lockboxes too, but everything about them is so completely different than what CO has done.​​

Unknown

This content has been removed.

jennymachx

sterga said:

You get a triple facepalm for how hard you fail at mind reading.​​

Considering that you're about the first and only person in the thread to openly complain about how everything is locked behind lockboxes, criticize people with credit cards who are able to hoard on keys using real money to "screw up" the economy, and with how you want to see Cryptic "de-emphasize" lockboxes, I don't think my intitial observation was completely off.

Oh and since we're being all snarky, it's impossible for a person to do a triple-facepalm since human beings only have two hands, unless you're using your foot for the third facepalm, which would be ideal considering you'd be practically putting your foot in your mouth.

Unknown

This content has been removed.

sterga

Gawd, your insults are terrible. I'm insulted that your insulates weren't actually insulting. I deserve better.

Anyway:
I wasn't criticizing people for using credit cards to buy tons of crap to sell. I was criticizing Cryptic for allowing it to happen with the impact it can have. I.E. Failing to balance a part of their game.

Criticizing the way lockboxes are implemented is not a stance for or against their existence. De-emphasis doesn't equal remove from the game.​​

spinnytop

I see the thread is treading a nice mature and productive path o3o so who's got some charts and graphs?

roughbearmattach

spinnytop said:

I see the thread is treading a nice mature and productive path o3o so who's got some charts and graphs?

I would like some more data before it's worth graphing, but I will put something together.

roughbearmattach

Graph
http://imgur.com/a/2OuK9

Thought I had the right formatting for this show in forum, but on my end, it's just a link.

sterga

The q/zen prices fluctuate throughout the day. The way your graph is set up looks misleading. The high for q/zen is 500 and the low is 50. Having only 100pts at the high end of the prices makes it look like the changes are more significant then they are and that the prices are around average when they are actually staying on the high end of the range.

Same problem with the keys. Prices aren't really changing very much, but the graph makes it look greater. Plus, prices on the AH tend to change more throughout the week since most people buy and sell on the weekends. That is something your graph doesn't show at all.​​

roughbearmattach

sterga said:

The q/zen prices fluctuate throughout the day. The way your graph is set up looks misleading. The high for q/zen is 500 and the low is 50. Having only 100pts at the high end of the prices makes it look like the changes are more significant then they are and that the prices are around average when they are actually staying on the high end of the range.



Same problem with the keys. Prices aren't really changing very much, but the graph makes it look greater. Plus, prices on the AH tend to change more throughout the week since most people buy and sell on the weekends. That is something your graph doesn't show at all.​​

The axes reflect what are historical highs and lows in the prices. Zen prices aren't really fluctuating in a range of 500 Q, but in only a portion. Likewise, key prices aren't varying from 0 to 100, but in a narrower slice of prices historically.

I could make a graph which shows percent increase from some common price in the past, 100 G per key, and 425 Q per Z. Such a graph wouldn't have the issues you mention. Key prices have been as much as 35% lower than the past median, and Zen prices have dropped at most by 7.5%.

In other words, key prices really have dropped quite a lot lately, especially since they had a commonly held price for so long. Some have suggested a market flooded with keys, and also the value of keys as currency has dropped with silvers being able to raise their resource cap. Zen prices have only dropped a little.

I'm not sure. Feel free to keep discussing.

sterga

100g was the long held standard for key prices and would make sense as a baseline. I don't really pay attention to key sales, but I'm guessing they haven't really gone more than 50g either way.

Q/zen prices haven't really changed in over a year. There is the typical spike when a lockbox comes out, but going sub 380 doesn't happen much. A really super popular omgawesome lockbox might see close to 500q/zen, but the price usually ends up going back to around 400. Especially if the next box is a Vintage Toy.

Of the two, key prices are the only thing seeing an unusual drop in price. I've also seen much more legion gear where there was hardly any before. Seems to me like some people are dumping a ton of actual cash into the game. Or returning lifers using their considerable zen stockpiles to open up all the lockboxes and poop out keys everywhere. If it was people offloading Questionite, I would think the prices of q/zen would go up with a greater demand for zen, as what happens when a lockbox comes out.

It could be more people playing the game and spending money, but it certainly doesn't feel like the population went up very much. Maybe a miracle will happen and a dev will *gasp* share data with the filthy peasants that play their game.​​

roughbearmattach

I can't imagine the company sharing customer/sales data with the public.

legendarylycan

the only people who get to see data like that are the company itself, any parent company(ies) and shareholders - so if you want to see it, start buying stock in cryptic studios, since you can't buy any in PWE anymore​​

roughbearmattach

Key price 78 G, Z price 403 Q

sterga

When you could see the cash shop from the website, there was a "most popular" category that allowed anyone to see what the best selling items were. It was something Cryptic did in the past.​​

Unknown

This content has been removed.