You can search all the other MMOs too on steam and compare, I think its one of the most played MMOs on steam if not the most (think planetside 2 has more).
But I'll make an educated guess and quadruple that number which is pretty good activity for a MMO i think. Bear in mind that most steam players do not venture near these forums.
Oh nice. This is exactly what i was looking for. Even tho its only for steam, you can say they have a % of the playerbase that has pretty much been solid. But by the looks of it the population of the game has never been lower then it is today. It spikes up at every mod release but goes down relatively faster and faster for every spike.
Too bad really, the game has such an awesome combat system. Maybe this means devs will listen to us a bit more for the next modules because they are surely aware of the drop in population as well.
<snip>
But I'll make an educated guess and quadruple that number which is pretty good activity for a MMO i think. Bear in mind that most steam players do not venture near these forums.
<waves hand>
I like keeping track of my hours and, since the old launcher is "unavailable", I figured I'd keep everything pooled in one spot.
You can search all the other MMOs too on steam and compare, I think its one of the most played MMOs on steam if not the most (think planetside 2 has more).
But I'll make an educated guess and quadruple that number which is pretty good activity for a MMO i think. Bear in mind that most steam players do not venture near these forums.
I didn't realize Steam had this info publicly available. I learned something new today.
Based on what I know of server populations from playing MMOs for a while I'd personally guess there are at least 40K people playing at any given time. Of course these numbers are purely pulled out of my tail hole, so don't hold them too much as fact, but this seems to be roughly what it would take to get a server population and chat activity level that we seem to have in Neverwinter.
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Based on what I know of server populations from playing MMOs for a while I'd personally guess there are at least 40K people playing at any given time. Of course these numbers are purely pulled out of my tail hole, so don't hold them too much as fact, but this seems to be roughly what it would take to get a server population and chat activity level that we seem to have in Neverwinter.
I doubt there are even remotely close to 40k people playing. Even for a number pulled out of your tail hole, I still say 40k is a waaay off.
It should be closer to 4-5k imo. At peak, possibly 8k if we are really optimistic.
Clearly there are two schools of thought here. Those who think the game is dying and those who dont. Once you accept this, the math is easy.
Take the numbers offered by those who feel the game is dying, and multiply upwards. Or take the numbers offered by those who feel the game is fine and subtract a little. Somewhere between these two extremes, will be the correct answer.
However, if that answer is meant to prove some kind of agenda. Or used as some kind of ammunition to justify how you feel about the game. Your answer is biased and most likely in error.
Clearly there are two schools of thought here. Those who think the game is dying and those who dont. Once you accept this, the math is easy.
Take the numbers offered by those who feel the game is dying, and multiply upwards. Or take the numbers offered by those who feel the game is fine and subtract a little. Somewhere between these two extremes, will be the correct answer.
However, if that answer is meant to prove some kind of agenda. Or used as some kind of ammunition to justify how you feel about the game. Your answer is biased and most likely in error.
It depends on people's definition of dying.
If you mean substantial decline, this game has definitely been dying a slow death in terms of population and content.
However, this game is not close to dead and is still pumping significant money to PWE compared to their other games. So in that definition, this game is not dying. Furthermore, while this game's population is nowhere as healthy as the most popular MMOs, the current population is still better than most other MMOs out there.
I hardly think anyone would ignore 8k AD a day on their primary account
Why should I go to PvP for a measly 8k AD if it takes an hour to get them? And then they are rAD anyway, so for many players something that is useless.
As for the discussion if there are more PvE or PvP players ... as much as it might hurt the PvP players, 2 maps for domination, GG PvP (if you insist calling it that) and this excuse of open world PvP should indicate the number of PvP players to be extremely low.
Taking into account the games policy to drive away new players from PvP by means of purples and enchantments in low level PvP it is obvious to me that there are very few PvP players.
At the moment I have 12 level 60 toons, 1 was in PvP in M3 and another one in M4.
On more than 5 I still have the "complete 1 domination match" daily quest. So I guess getting the number of players from the PvP cheatboard is not necessarily a good idea if you seek the number of active players.
Doing searches in the social tab might reveal more useable information.
Imaginary Friends are the best friends you can have!
I'm not certain about the social tab either : many are in partial or complete anonymous mode (I know I am) to avoid spammers.
What about counting all instances for all maps, and assume that idk, like 80% of an instance are filled for open word, and the obvious 5 toons in every dungeon/skirmish.
By instance counting I mean search for the string "epic temple of the spider queen - #24" and count them (there might be no 20 atm and things like that, so count)
Open worl instance might have different "natural" maxima. I would guess assuming that every instance is on average 80 or 90% full might be a good starting point. Would ofc need some samples for validation.
Imaginary Friends are the best friends you can have!
Quite. I played PvP regularly on 3-4 different characters up until Mod 4 launched. I haven't played a single PvP match since. Partly because of the mess they made of PvP with the changes to powers and the addition of glyphs, partly because I have 6 active L60 characters to try and get through the campaigns and ToD is so hugely time consuming.
I doubt there are even remotely close to 40k people playing. Even for a number pulled out of your tail hole, I still say 40k is a waaay off.
It should be closer to 4-5k imo. At peak, possibly 8k if we are really optimistic.
Also, are we including bots etc?
The chart linked to by Grimah shows your numbers to be substantially off. There is a current average of around 3k players through Steam alone, with peaks of a little over 5.5k players. I have no idea of the proportion of players who use Steam as opposed to Arc or the direct client, but even if we assume a 50/50 split there are around 6k players on average with peaks of around 11k. This is pretty reasonable for most MMOs.
The chart linked to by Grimah shows your numbers to be substantially off. There is a current average of around 3k players through Steam alone, with peaks of a little over 5.5k players. I have no idea of the proportion of players who use Steam as opposed to Arc or the direct client, but even if we assume a 50/50 split there are around 6k players on average with peaks of around 11k. This is pretty reasonable for most MMOs.
Well my 8k and 11k are much closer to 40k zshikara suggested. It is very easy to have a rough estimate. Look at the instances and count how many players there are. Anyone with 15 minutes on their hands could make an estimate that probably is close to the right number. I don't even think it reaches 8k.
Also, I will not completely budge from the fact that Steam was and remains the biggest factor that pumped players into this game after its launch. Where else do people hear about Neverwinter? Where else is Neverwinter really advertised? What really did this game have to offer to entice newcomers after its launch? I can't think of anything other than Steam.
11k peak population is acceptable, though I think 8k is an appropriate estimate.
from in game Leaderbord , you can count how many pages and multiply it by how much player per page ,
you can have an idea of how much active pvpers are , then add some hundred as a pve players who never queue for pvp maybe !
from in game Leaderbord , you can count how many pages and multiply it by how much player per page ,
you can have an idea of how much active pvpers are , then add some hundred as a pve players who never queue for pvp maybe !
The Zen exchange is approximately at about 800-1,000 K Zen a day : orders take less than a day with a backlog of 6-700 K.
That's only part of the Zen bought by players of course (we have no idea about the amount concerning direct orders in the Zen shop or elsewhere), but that's more than $8,000 a day, more than $240,000 a month.
If Neverwinter was a subscription mmorpg, at $12 a month per account, that would be alike to 20,000 paying accounts.
I suppose you need more accounts with a free to play to generate the equivalent revenue you get from a subscription mmorpg.
So They must have way more than 20,000 active accounts at the moment.
Olaf, freelance guardian fighter.
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
from in game Leaderbord , you can count how many pages and multiply it by how much player per page ,
you can have an idea of how much active pvpers are , then add some hundred as a pve players who never queue for pvp maybe !
That only gives you the number of characters, not the number of players. Many players have multiple characters they PvP with. And it will also include Bots.
I suppose you need more accounts with a free to play to generate the equivalent revenue you get from a subscription mmorpg.
Actually not. Or at least not necessarily. A number of studies have indicated that players will actually spend more on an FTP title that they enjoy than on a subscription title. So while you will have players who never spend a dime you will have other players dropping regular cash payments into the store which actually add up to more than you would have charged them for a sub. It all evens out and in fact FTP games can make MORE money per player than sub based games. Why else do you think so many games have moved from sub (or at least all sub) to FTP?
Actually not. Or at least not necessarily. A number of studies have indicated that players will actually spend more on an FTP title that they enjoy than on a subscription title. So while you will have players who never spend a dime you will have other players dropping regular cash payments into the store which actually add up to more than you would have charged them for a sub. It all evens out and in fact FTP games can make MORE money per player than sub based games. Why else do you think so many games have moved from sub (or at least all sub) to FTP?
I hardly think anyone would ignore 8k AD a day on their primary account
Guess again. I certainly do in mod 4, after being a really regular PvPer on a couple of classes in mod 3. There are many like me. The 8k simply isn't worth the misery and boredom.
Well my 8k and 11k are much closer to 40k zshikara suggested. It is very easy to have a rough estimate. Look at the instances and count how many players there are. Anyone with 15 minutes on their hands could make an estimate that probably is close to the right number. I don't even think it reaches 8k.
Also, I will not completely budge from the fact that Steam was and remains the biggest factor that pumped players into this game after its launch. Where else do people hear about Neverwinter? Where else is Neverwinter really advertised? What really did this game have to offer to entice newcomers after its launch? I can't think of anything other than Steam.
11k peak population is acceptable, though I think 8k is an appropriate estimate.
I actually did this sometime in Mod 2 at different times of day and (I think I remember that) the top amount was maybe 20K peak. The impression I get from guilds and channels is that the number of ACTIVE players is decreasing. From the complaints I hear for PvE part of this is the endless boon grinds (especially Mod 4's which is even worse or at least more boring than Sharandar), and for PvP the fact that there is no matchmaking.
In a nutshell, it's an exercise in indirection, so that it's really hard for the paying customer to accurately track what they're paying. A flat subscription is easier to budget- the f2p model uses a series of misleading and coercive tricks, intermediate currencies and sleights of hand to lessen the sting, which is why it succeeds in making more money from most players.
I think they're relatively correct. The profits made by games that charged subscriptions prior to free to play remain high, but that's because they have a large established base with lots of time and money invested who just keep paying. You can't realistically start a new sub game and survive in any notable way any more, sadly. Players are doomed to be thrown to the F2P sharks for now.
Kattefjaes provided some good references and analysis. It's a complex comparison because the different games with FTP elements use different ways of separating punters from their cash. On the table you linked to LoL is at the bottom not because it's an unpopular game but because it's hardcore PvP and has virtually nothing of any real worth on sale in it's cash shop. Neverwinter caters to a completely different audience and provides lots of reasons to spend real world money on the game.
^ Thanks for the links.
But I know about the strategies behind f2p.
And I know some of those that spend money in f2p end with bigger amounts they would have spent with a subscription. But they are a very tiny minority. I read somewhere less than 1% of the paying customers account for half of some f2p revenue (not necessarily mmo).
Anyway the point was an account in a f2p mmo is not worth as much revenue as an account in a subscription mmo. More like one fifth or one tenth.
Your sources are not giving any indications about this. I'll then stay with mine and so, we have way more (like 5 or 10 times) than 20,000 active accounts.
The point you're missing is that profitable subscription games are a historical curio. You can't make a new one and be massively successful any more. The existing ones are bleeding out- in the case of some, slowly, but bleeding out all the same. It's irreversible.
The f2p genie is well and truly out of the bottle now. Companies can make a lot more money from doing it- even if the way they have to behave in order to do so is sometimes rather shady.
No-one is having success with big subscription MMOs any more. No-one, no matter how large their initial warchest is can survive trying this any more. Look at Rift. Look at Tera. Look at SWTOR. Watch ESO dying by degrees.
You can point at subscription games from the past which will continue to make money, though not as much as they used to. The can do this due to their established (but diminishing) player base who are either still having fun or are too invested to quit. However, to fail to notice that they established themselves in a very different market to today is to fail to grasp the essentials of the situation. The mechanics and economics have shifted, wildly. Once those behemoths fall to the changes in their environment, they will be the last of their kind for the forseeable future.
I thought we were only trying to evaluate the number of players for NWO.
I wasn't discussing market trends, or if the game is successful or not (not that it wouldn't be an interesting discussion on it's own).
Olaf, freelance guardian fighter.
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
0
inthefade462Member, Neverwinter Beta Users, Neverwinter Guardian UsersPosts: 0Arc User
The point you're missing is that profitable subscription games are a historical curio. You can't make a new one and be massively successful any more. The existing ones are bleeding out- in the case of some, slowly, but bleeding out all the same. It's irreversible.
The f2p genie is well and truly out of the bottle now. Companies can make a lot more money from doing it- even if the way they have to behave in order to do so is sometimes rather shady.
No-one is having success with big subscription MMOs any more. No-one, no matter how large their initial warchest is can survive trying this any more. Look at Rift. Look at Tera. Look at SWTOR. Watch ESO dying by degrees.
You can point at subscription games from the past which will continue to make money, though not as much as they used to. The can do this due to their established (but diminishing) player base who are either still having fun or are too invested to quit. However, to fail to notice that they established themselves in a very different market to today is to fail to grasp the essentials of the situation. The mechanics and economics have shifted, wildly. Once those behemoths fall to the changes in their environment, they will be the last of their kind for the forseeable future.
you name off a bunch of failed WoW clones that never stood a chance or had any real success to begin with, and claim that sub games are dying?
Not that i'm disagreeing with you. Just saying you just listed a bunch of terrible examples. And with the exception of Eve-Online, No one else is having success with subscription model. sub games are dying, just at varying rates. F2P is the future. a new sub game in today's market is loads of dumb. Can't believe Zenimax thought their brand was strong enough to make it work.
The most important information from the steam data is that steam population droped. It is safe to assume that the ratio NON-STEAM : STEAM players remains constant. So we can see from data that from January (fair far from Mod2 release which is obviously peak) to September (fair far from Mod4 release) we see only half users! It's pretty obvious overall population droped the same So game is dying.
BTW. When you pick the "1y" on the chart the dying slope is visible directly (with peaks for mod releases)
This is why focusing on QUALITY and CUSTOMER SATISFACTION will always win in the end, and Blizz still rules supreme.
In their games there are no "but it's just a f2p" justifications, even if there are flaws, they are remedied, and the content is not rehashed dailies and gated dungeons for 10 mins/run, but expansions with epic stories and epic raids and balanced PvP.
Comments
Oh nice. This is exactly what i was looking for. Even tho its only for steam, you can say they have a % of the playerbase that has pretty much been solid. But by the looks of it the population of the game has never been lower then it is today. It spikes up at every mod release but goes down relatively faster and faster for every spike.
Too bad really, the game has such an awesome combat system. Maybe this means devs will listen to us a bit more for the next modules because they are surely aware of the drop in population as well.
<waves hand>
I like keeping track of my hours and, since the old launcher is "unavailable", I figured I'd keep everything pooled in one spot.
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I didn't realize Steam had this info publicly available. I learned something new today.
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I doubt there are even remotely close to 40k people playing. Even for a number pulled out of your tail hole, I still say 40k is a waaay off.
It should be closer to 4-5k imo. At peak, possibly 8k if we are really optimistic.
Also, are we including bots etc?
Take the numbers offered by those who feel the game is dying, and multiply upwards. Or take the numbers offered by those who feel the game is fine and subtract a little. Somewhere between these two extremes, will be the correct answer.
However, if that answer is meant to prove some kind of agenda. Or used as some kind of ammunition to justify how you feel about the game. Your answer is biased and most likely in error.
It depends on people's definition of dying.
If you mean substantial decline, this game has definitely been dying a slow death in terms of population and content.
However, this game is not close to dead and is still pumping significant money to PWE compared to their other games. So in that definition, this game is not dying. Furthermore, while this game's population is nowhere as healthy as the most popular MMOs, the current population is still better than most other MMOs out there.
As for the discussion if there are more PvE or PvP players ... as much as it might hurt the PvP players, 2 maps for domination, GG PvP (if you insist calling it that) and this excuse of open world PvP should indicate the number of PvP players to be extremely low.
Taking into account the games policy to drive away new players from PvP by means of purples and enchantments in low level PvP it is obvious to me that there are very few PvP players.
At the moment I have 12 level 60 toons, 1 was in PvP in M3 and another one in M4.
On more than 5 I still have the "complete 1 domination match" daily quest. So I guess getting the number of players from the PvP cheatboard is not necessarily a good idea if you seek the number of active players.
Doing searches in the social tab might reveal more useable information.
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
By instance counting I mean search for the string "epic temple of the spider queen - #24" and count them (there might be no 20 atm and things like that, so count)
Open worl instance might have different "natural" maxima. I would guess assuming that every instance is on average 80 or 90% full might be a good starting point. Would ofc need some samples for validation.
Aelar Hawkwind - Archer
Karrin Feywinter - Mistress of Flame
Errin Duskwalker - Executioner
Darquess - Soulbinder
Aelar Hawkwind - Archer
Karrin Feywinter - Mistress of Flame
Errin Duskwalker - Executioner
Darquess - Soulbinder
Well my 8k and 11k are much closer to 40k zshikara suggested. It is very easy to have a rough estimate. Look at the instances and count how many players there are. Anyone with 15 minutes on their hands could make an estimate that probably is close to the right number. I don't even think it reaches 8k.
Also, I will not completely budge from the fact that Steam was and remains the biggest factor that pumped players into this game after its launch. Where else do people hear about Neverwinter? Where else is Neverwinter really advertised? What really did this game have to offer to entice newcomers after its launch? I can't think of anything other than Steam.
11k peak population is acceptable, though I think 8k is an appropriate estimate.
you can have an idea of how much active pvpers are , then add some hundred as a pve players who never queue for pvp maybe !
We are talking about concurrent players.
The Zen exchange is approximately at about 800-1,000 K Zen a day : orders take less than a day with a backlog of 6-700 K.
That's only part of the Zen bought by players of course (we have no idea about the amount concerning direct orders in the Zen shop or elsewhere), but that's more than $8,000 a day, more than $240,000 a month.
If Neverwinter was a subscription mmorpg, at $12 a month per account, that would be alike to 20,000 paying accounts.
I suppose you need more accounts with a free to play to generate the equivalent revenue you get from a subscription mmorpg.
So They must have way more than 20,000 active accounts at the moment.
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
Aelar Hawkwind - Archer
Karrin Feywinter - Mistress of Flame
Errin Duskwalker - Executioner
Darquess - Soulbinder
Aelar Hawkwind - Archer
Karrin Feywinter - Mistress of Flame
Errin Duskwalker - Executioner
Darquess - Soulbinder
My asumption came from here for example.
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
Guess again. I certainly do in mod 4, after being a really regular PvPer on a couple of classes in mod 3. There are many like me. The 8k simply isn't worth the misery and boredom.
I actually did this sometime in Mod 2 at different times of day and (I think I remember that) the top amount was maybe 20K peak. The impression I get from guilds and channels is that the number of ACTIVE players is decreasing. From the complaints I hear for PvE part of this is the endless boon grinds (especially Mod 4's which is even worse or at least more boring than Sharandar), and for PvP the fact that there is no matchmaking.
It's an entire branch of "weaponized" (ick) economics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow
http://www.gamasutra.com/blogs/RaminShokrizade/20130626/194933/The_Top_F2P_Monetization_Tricks.php
..and some contextual fluff from a more innocent age:
http://www.forbes.com/2008/03/31/free-video-games-tech-personal-cx_mji_0331free.html
In a nutshell, it's an exercise in indirection, so that it's really hard for the paying customer to accurately track what they're paying. A flat subscription is easier to budget- the f2p model uses a series of misleading and coercive tricks, intermediate currencies and sleights of hand to lessen the sting, which is why it succeeds in making more money from most players.
Here's a bit of commentary on the data you saw:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/insertcoin/2014/07/19/world-of-warcraft-still-a-1b-powerhouse-even-as-subscription-mmos-decline/
I think they're relatively correct. The profits made by games that charged subscriptions prior to free to play remain high, but that's because they have a large established base with lots of time and money invested who just keep paying. You can't realistically start a new sub game and survive in any notable way any more, sadly. Players are doomed to be thrown to the F2P sharks for now.
Aelar Hawkwind - Archer
Karrin Feywinter - Mistress of Flame
Errin Duskwalker - Executioner
Darquess - Soulbinder
But I know about the strategies behind f2p.
And I know some of those that spend money in f2p end with bigger amounts they would have spent with a subscription. But they are a very tiny minority. I read somewhere less than 1% of the paying customers account for half of some f2p revenue (not necessarily mmo).
Anyway the point was an account in a f2p mmo is not worth as much revenue as an account in a subscription mmo. More like one fifth or one tenth.
Your sources are not giving any indications about this. I'll then stay with mine and so, we have way more (like 5 or 10 times) than 20,000 active accounts.
Edit : I really do not see what makes you come to this conclusion, sorry ...
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
The f2p genie is well and truly out of the bottle now. Companies can make a lot more money from doing it- even if the way they have to behave in order to do so is sometimes rather shady.
No-one is having success with big subscription MMOs any more. No-one, no matter how large their initial warchest is can survive trying this any more. Look at Rift. Look at Tera. Look at SWTOR. Watch ESO dying by degrees.
You can point at subscription games from the past which will continue to make money, though not as much as they used to. The can do this due to their established (but diminishing) player base who are either still having fun or are too invested to quit. However, to fail to notice that they established themselves in a very different market to today is to fail to grasp the essentials of the situation. The mechanics and economics have shifted, wildly. Once those behemoths fall to the changes in their environment, they will be the last of their kind for the forseeable future.
I wasn't discussing market trends, or if the game is successful or not (not that it wouldn't be an interesting discussion on it's own).
Enorla, Oh so devoted cleric.
you name off a bunch of failed WoW clones that never stood a chance or had any real success to begin with, and claim that sub games are dying?
Not that i'm disagreeing with you. Just saying you just listed a bunch of terrible examples. And with the exception of Eve-Online, No one else is having success with subscription model. sub games are dying, just at varying rates. F2P is the future. a new sub game in today's market is loads of dumb. Can't believe Zenimax thought their brand was strong enough to make it work.
BTW. When you pick the "1y" on the chart the dying slope is visible directly (with peaks for mod releases)
This is why focusing on QUALITY and CUSTOMER SATISFACTION will always win in the end, and Blizz still rules supreme.
In their games there are no "but it's just a f2p" justifications, even if there are flaws, they are remedied, and the content is not rehashed dailies and gated dungeons for 10 mins/run, but expansions with epic stories and epic raids and balanced PvP.
Oh well.
Looking forward to the next set of dailies.