Quick math lesson. 75% chance of success is a 25% chance of failure right?
So you use 1 kit, you have a 25% chance of failure. Following so far?
You use a 2nd kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 3rd kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 4th kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 5th kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
What is your chance of failure on a 6th kit?
Each kit has it's own individual chance of failure. It is equally likely that each attempt fails. This will not happen very often. due to the Law of Averages but it is far from impossible. I think I recall that one time in the months I have been playing, I lost 5 kits on one node. I have used hundreds if not thousands of kits on the 4 level 60 characters I leveled up completing every story quest in game.
You only notice when you get 3 fails in a row, You never notice when you get 9 successes in a row which is equally unlikely.
See. this is what gets me.. If I'm doing such a bulk group of fusing you would think the % rate would slowly begin to match the advertised rate. 84% (and my typical success rate for that matter) is always way off.. I see in one thread they've acknowledged they are looking into it.. which really sucks if they realize it's been off.That's allot of zen/AD they've just absorbed to their own benefit.
Getting two in a row doesn't really cut it if it took you 12 fuses to get there and they advertise 40% success rate.
Quick math lesson. 75% chance of success is a 25% chance of failure right?
So you use 1 kit, you have a 25% chance of failure. Following so far?
You use a 2nd kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 3rd kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 4th kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 5th kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
What is your chance of failure on a 6th kit?
Each kit has it's own individual chance of failure. It is equally likely that each attempt fails. This will not happen very often. due to the Law of Averages but it is far from impossible. I think I recall that one time in the months I have been playing, I lost 5 kits on one node. I have used hundreds if not thousands of kits on the 4 level 60 characters I leveled up completing every story quest in game.
You only notice when you get 3 fails in a row, You never notice when you get 9 successes in a row which is equally unlikely.
Actually it happens a lot. I get a node to fail 6 times in a row at least once everyday. I do see what you are saying but then that's a failed way for it to also operate. If it fails the next attempt should be a even better chance to succeed cause it has to maintain the % established.
Actually it happens a lot. I get a node to fail 6 times in a row at least once everyday. I do see what you are saying but then that's a failed way for it to also operate. If it fails the next attempt should be a even better chance to succeed cause it has to maintain the % established.
But the percentage established hasn't changed.
If I flip a coin twice the odds tell me that it's supposed to come up Heads once and Tails once, but experience tells me that I can get three or four heads in a row before I see a tails even though mathematically the odds are a 1 in 16 chance of it happening.
A die doesn't remember your last roll, a coin doesn't remember your last flip, lottery numbers don't remember the last time they came out.
The laws of chance aren't dictated by the past, no matter how much we want them to be. 75% chance of success will always be 75% chance of success, just as there will be someone who fuses 2 enchants in a row at 1% chance, there will be someone who fails of 5 or 6 skill nodes in a row.
If I flip a coin twice the odds tell me that it's supposed to come up Heads once and Tails once, but experience tells me that I can get three or four heads in a row before I see a tails even though mathematically the odds are a 1 in 16 chance of it happening.
A die doesn't remember your last roll, a coin doesn't remember your last flip, lottery numbers don't remember the last time they came out.
The laws of chance aren't dictated by the past, no matter how much we want them to be. 75% chance of success will always be 75% chance of success, just as there will be someone who fuses 2 enchants in a row at 1% chance, there will be someone who fails of 5 or 6 skill nodes in a row.
Someone who understands probability on these forums? I'm shocked! (Listen to this guy; he's smart.)
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beckylunaticMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 14,231Arc User
edited July 2013
Not only that, you're not succeeding multiple times in a row on the same node, so your brain is constantly moving on and not tracking that you've just successfully looted 10 or 20 on the first try. But as soon as you get a streak of failures... BANG! It must be broken.
beckylunaticMember, NW M9 PlaytestPosts: 14,231Arc User
edited July 2013
So, I snagged some cheap rank 6s to fuse up into 7s, had my preservation wards all ready to go and didn't actually use any wards because both fuses worked on the first try tonight. Sometimes the RNG loves you.
I farmed the Drow area nodes a lot when I first hit 60. I couldn't care less about the percentage, 75% is fine.
The issue for me is the constant redoing the "opening" when u fail, one occasion I had 7 fails in a row, went to next skill box and it failed 6 times. There was a lot of steam coming out of my head by the 13th fail. Obviously failing 13 times in a row is in the realms of possibility, but I'd rather the game calculated that I'd lose 7 kits the first time and 6 the next and just give me the bloody junk inside.
Comments
So you use 1 kit, you have a 25% chance of failure. Following so far?
You use a 2nd kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 3rd kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 4th kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
You use a 5th kit. What is your chance of failure now? Answer: 25%
What is your chance of failure on a 6th kit?
Each kit has it's own individual chance of failure. It is equally likely that each attempt fails. This will not happen very often. due to the Law of Averages but it is far from impossible. I think I recall that one time in the months I have been playing, I lost 5 kits on one node. I have used hundreds if not thousands of kits on the 4 level 60 characters I leveled up completing every story quest in game.
You only notice when you get 3 fails in a row, You never notice when you get 9 successes in a row which is equally unlikely.
See. this is what gets me.. If I'm doing such a bulk group of fusing you would think the % rate would slowly begin to match the advertised rate. 84% (and my typical success rate for that matter) is always way off.. I see in one thread they've acknowledged they are looking into it.. which really sucks if they realize it's been off.That's allot of zen/AD they've just absorbed to their own benefit.
Getting two in a row doesn't really cut it if it took you 12 fuses to get there and they advertise 40% success rate.
Actually it happens a lot. I get a node to fail 6 times in a row at least once everyday. I do see what you are saying but then that's a failed way for it to also operate. If it fails the next attempt should be a even better chance to succeed cause it has to maintain the % established.
But the percentage established hasn't changed.
If I flip a coin twice the odds tell me that it's supposed to come up Heads once and Tails once, but experience tells me that I can get three or four heads in a row before I see a tails even though mathematically the odds are a 1 in 16 chance of it happening.
A die doesn't remember your last roll, a coin doesn't remember your last flip, lottery numbers don't remember the last time they came out.
The laws of chance aren't dictated by the past, no matter how much we want them to be. 75% chance of success will always be 75% chance of success, just as there will be someone who fuses 2 enchants in a row at 1% chance, there will be someone who fails of 5 or 6 skill nodes in a row.
Someone who understands probability on these forums? I'm shocked! (Listen to this guy; he's smart.)
Neverwinter Census 2017
All posts pending disapproval by Cecilia
Neverwinter Census 2017
All posts pending disapproval by Cecilia
The issue for me is the constant redoing the "opening" when u fail, one occasion I had 7 fails in a row, went to next skill box and it failed 6 times. There was a lot of steam coming out of my head by the 13th fail. Obviously failing 13 times in a row is in the realms of possibility, but I'd rather the game calculated that I'd lose 7 kits the first time and 6 the next and just give me the bloody junk inside.