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Mod 16 - Once again a failure a proper communication

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  • silvershard#4275 silvershard Posts: 95Member Arc User






    Overall I find that this update will have many cost related items for players and if that is the case some players maybe tired of constantly needing to invest with each mod. As someone who mains a CW, every mod I have had to change 1-2 items that cost in game resources and sometimes real money do to how bad my luck is when I try to upgrade an item from epic to legendary or legendary to mythical. Forget going from a R10 to R14 enchantment. This seems like it is a major cost sink and I have a gut feeling we may see other changes that have not yet been announced that may impact our characters further.

    IMO we didn't need both a level cap and redoing all the character classes. I would have introduce one in one mod and the other in another mod. I would have staged the rollout they have planned for mod 16. It also would be easier to catch and fix bugs.

    Dude, can you give the lottery numbers for this weekend while you're at it?

    You "FIND" that this update will...

    At best you should be using the word "speculate," "guess", or probably "worry"...

    If English is your second or third language I apologise, but with the evidence so far available there's nothing TO find.

    Some of the outrage and assumption being displayed here is worse than when they announced the title of the fourth Harry Potter book without a full synopsis, and people went mad about underage school kids drinking Flaming Sambucas.*


    (*that didn't really happen... I made it up to illustrate a point.)
    "Keep your eyes open while delving the layers of Undermountain, not just for dangers and traps, but for the glint of treasure hidden throughout. As players advance to level 80 so does the gear. Undermountain brings new equipment ranging from level 71 to 80, new seal gear, new dungeon equipment, and even new higher item level artifacts for players to enjoy."

    Speculation? I think not. The very last part of the quote above from the post by the dev clearly shows that players will have to invest in game resources or real world money, depending upon their luck, to upgrade the new higher IL artifacts. Now keep in mind artifacts in this game includes regular artifacts, weapons, neck and waist. Therefore my speculation is not speculation given this. I simply read what was written and expressed my concern over the fact that the company is once again pushing newer and shiny items our way that quite a few players will use real funds to acquire or to reach its max IL.

    As someone who just did this I'm not all that happy about needing to do it so soon. I was hoping my weapons would last a year like the Fey weapon did.


    I don't want to get bogged down in linguistic semantics, but even if you start a sentence with "I find" and then go to say "May be tired of." you are still speculating.
    (You didn't FIND that there will be new gear... it's right there in front of your eyes, it wasn't lost or hidden, it took no effort to uncover, the speculation comes in your conclusion as what that information may or may not mean.)

    Let me break it down.
    "I find that this new Mod will have new content... which means new gear... which means... I'll need to somehow EARN that stuff." (Objective data, which everyone can see.)
    "And maybe some people won't like that". (Subjective assumption, or opinion.)
    See how it works?
    Tying an objective and subjective into one statement doesn't strengthen the objectivity of the assumption.


    But, anyway, on to the wider complaint.

    So... there will be new gear?
    Isn't what you would expect in ANY NEW CONTENT. Irrespective of level cap increase.
    I'd hope there was something worth having after grinding an entire new NWO campaign.

    Invest "in game resources"???????
    What do you think they exist for????

    It's like moaning about Easter. "I find that some people may be tired of chocolate, ergo Easter is BAD." Who are these people? Let them go somewhere and eat carrots, not moan about how the announcement that Easter is coming round in a few months is somehow bad news for everyone else who quite likes chocolate. (That's a simile. Just in case anyone wonders what the hell carrots have to do with anything...)

    Maybe consider that such a situation will allow players to actually do MORE than shower rinse and repeat the same content over and over in a bid to fast track to BiS so they can... run the same content over and over once a week, complaining that there's not enough to do?

    BiS is about to get better. Much better.
    And that will mean that people will find it harder to get their four best buddies, buy a bunch of Campaign Advancement packs, fast track the campaign and ram raid the new Dungeon, gain all the new gear, vivify it and sit back and wait for the next mod to drop.
    I'm sure there will be a few who have the money to fast track to 80, (Hell, there will probably be a Zen bundle...) and also buy most of the associated gear.
    Personally, I'd rather the campaigns be better, and play the game and get there eventually.
    But if they have the money and that's how they enjoy playing, fair play to them. Those are the people who are paying far more of Cryptic's bills than I ever will, so I'm not going to criticise them for covering my end of the costs.

    But since it looks like L71-80 will be EARNED through campaign participation rather than chasing dire bears in the Stronghold, it won't be so easy to just throw freebies at alts to get them up there.

    There will be LOADS of new stuff to do. How the hell is THAT a bad thing? Who are the people who want new content, but without new rewards and better gear?
    Are they after content that they don't have to invest anything in? I suppose those guys LOVE the new Professions... new content that they can choose to completely and utterly ignore.

    In summary... if you are tired of grinding and refining for new and better gear... it's not a problem with Mod 16.

    I find that some players may be tired of playing a linear progression MMO. Maybe they just don't get the way these things work and might be better off trying a different type of game.


    You missed the point I was making and decided to go off onto your own points.

    My point was around artifact gear, not gear in general but artifact gear. You know your weapon, waist, and neck. The gear that requires wards to rank up so you don't waste your resources. I talked about that a 90% of success for me used 30 wards in one go. Than the 50% took another 30. Yeah those items. Now given my luck I typically buy with real world money coal wards for 10% or less chance as it typically takes me hundreds of wards to make an item go up to the next ranking. So I run three character and since I will only main them for a specific role I will have to replaced 3 main hands, 3 off hands, 3 necks and 3 waist than I will spend around $120 for coal wards for that 10% mark given my horrible luck.

    That is a cost to me in real world money that I won't do and I'm not the only player that feels this way.
    Hold on a moment...
    That is a REAL statistical outlier though.
    I mean... seriously BIG numbers of misfortune.
    30 misses at 90% is statistically 30 hits at 10%
    Or, as it is otherwise known.

    1 in 10 to the power of 30

    You understand that the odds of that are, literally...
    1000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000:1 against, yeah?

    It's called (not kidding) a nonillion. (Even MS spell checker thinks I'm making that word up!)
    It's like getting 30 10 sided dice, chucking them all at once and ALL of them coming up 0...

    Now, I'm not calling you a liar... it may have happened the way you say.
    Any chance is higher than zero chance after all...
    But the chances of it happening again are... well... exactly the same as it happening the first time. And we've already established the odds of that.
    The odds of it happening again to YOU, are a nonillion multiplied by the entire player base.
    (Your 30 tries at 50% are a far more likely 1.07 billion to 1 against ever happening again.)

    On a more realistic (may happen from time to time in a normal situation) level.
    I've had 90% chances that took a lot of tries, never 30, but I guess I'm just lucky.
    But I've also had my share of 10% chances that hit first time. And 5% chances that landed in the first 3 or 4 goes. We never seem to remember those very well when we're complaining about other stuff though.

    As a consequence of my findings, I, for one, am not prepared to dismiss the notion of new (even Artefact) gear maybe being an OK thing on the basis of a run of astronomically, outrageously, mind bendingly unlikely run of fortune. One that I am confident will not strike me, or anyone else, not just in the near future, but ever.

    I don't know how your luck is at the moment or going forward, but I'm prepared to bet that it won't be as bad as it has been ever, (to the power of 30) again.
  • aerhythia#3255 aerhythia Posts: 74Member Arc User
    Is 90% even worth using a Ward? Green and Blue marks are cheap these days. Once you're at 50% chance or lower these things will definitely happen, the only question is how often. I'm gonna laugh and then cry a bit if Cryptic reworks a huge portion of the game but keeps the dumb gambling RNG based upgrading system for gear.
  • silvershard#4275 silvershard Posts: 95Member Arc User

    Is 90% even worth using a Ward? Green and Blue marks are cheap these days. Once you're at 50% chance or lower these things will definitely happen, the only question is how often. I'm gonna laugh and then cry a bit if Cryptic reworks a huge portion of the game but keeps the dumb gambling RNG based upgrading system for gear.

    It is if you are trying to make a point about how expensive it is if you do so, and as a consequence the game is forcing us to refine new gear which is apparently not a good thig.

    Otherwise, no, you're right its generally cheaper to burn enchants instead.
  • draugkirdraugkir Posts: 75Member Arc User


    Hold on a moment...
    That is a REAL statistical outlier though.
    I mean... seriously BIG numbers of misfortune.
    30 misses at 90% is statistically 30 hits at 10%
    Or, as it is otherwise known.

    1 in 10 to the power of 30

    You understand that the odds of that are, literally...
    1000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000:1 against, yeah?

    The problema with RNG could easly be solved (if they wanted) to by establishing limits to the number of "fails".

    Example.. say you using something with 10% odds to fail. Max fails would be 10. You could get it at first, 2nd or.. 10.

    Unfortunaly the game doesnt have limits on the fails, or those limits are simply too high to the point that if you are unlucky ( not sure if players luck is changed acording to the rl cash put in game in a predefined period of time ) youll take a lot of tries to get a "sucess" on those 10%.
  • mebengalsfan#9264 mebengalsfan Posts: 2,721Member Arc User

    > @greywynd said:

    > Actually most quite negative.

    >

    > Most of the people i daily meet in game dont even play the game anymore.. they just log in 100k log out and go play soemthign else cos theres no point wasting resources nor time in a game soon to be dead.

    >

    > People make jokes about the IQ of whoever came up with theese changes.

    >

    > I think your point of view on whats going on is too out of the reality of what players are voicing.

    >

    > Sorry if you dont like it.

    >

    > Then it would depend on who has a wider group they listen to. From what you describe you don't have a very large group to listen to on account they're leaving/have left.

    >

    > I've been playing for 4 years. In those 4 years, I can't tell you the number of false prophets that I've seen that declared the game "soon to be dead'.

    >

    > I think you'r point of view is coming from an echo chamber.



    You can look in popular zones and the ah on xbox see the game is dying. It got significantly worse with the hunt bans. Markets are dead, people are not forming groups. I have been playing years as well. I hope the new mod beings people back, but not even sure I'm continuing until it hits preview. For now I'm one of the people who logs in for the 100k, key, and some mw.

    MMO have flow for game population. First month of a update/release the game is busy with many players. After 2 months the game start to slow down. The down time is usually filled up by events hoping to keep players busy. The problem with these models is the events are repetitive and offer nothing new or special that a end game player wants or desires. I know for me I'm not going to chase a carrot in the event if it won't improve my character.

    NWO had a slight up tick when mod 15 launched but given its lackluster release many quit early waiting for mod 16.

  • rjc9000rjc9000 Posts: 2,022Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User

    tgwolf said:

    Legitimately I wonder; is Patience like, an Optional Extra that your parents can choose to have installed in you at birth but were out of cash. Or...?

    I know Common Sense and Basic Decency etc. are but I thought Patience came installed as standard.



    Is this how you bring Kolat back from the dead?

    I tried memes, gifs, and even beer, but none of that worked.
    draugkir said:


    Hold on a moment...
    That is a REAL statistical outlier though.
    I mean... seriously BIG numbers of misfortune.
    30 misses at 90% is statistically 30 hits at 10%
    Or, as it is otherwise known.

    1 in 10 to the power of 30

    You understand that the odds of that are, literally...
    1000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000:1 against, yeah?

    The problema with RNG could easly be solved (if they wanted) to by establishing limits to the number of "fails".

    Example.. say you using something with 10% odds to fail. Max fails would be 10. You could get it at first, 2nd or.. 10.

    Unfortunaly the game doesnt have limits on the fails, or those limits are simply too high to the point that if you are unlucky ( not sure if players luck is changed acording to the rl cash put in game in a predefined period of time ) youll take a lot of tries to get a "sucess" on those 10%.
    A streakbreaker system, eh?

    That actually sounds like a pretty good idea and would likely alleviate complains on the statistics of the game.

    I recall the rather maligned Mass Effect Andromeda multiplayer had a nifty streakbreaker system (open ten boxes and you are guaranteed to get an ultra rare weapon/character) that could be interesting to see for things like lockboxes and maybe even refining.

  • thefiresidecatthefiresidecat Posts: 3,054Member Arc User
    edited February 28





    In summary... if you are tired of grinding and refining for new and better gear... it's not a problem with Mod 16.

    I find that some players may be tired of playing a linear progression MMO. Maybe they just don't get the way these things work and might be better off trying a different type of game.




    You missed the point I was making and decided to go off onto your own points.

    My point was around artifact gear, not gear in general but artifact gear. You know your weapon, waist, and neck. The gear that requires wards to rank up so you don't waste your resources. I talked about that a 90% of success for me used 30 wards in one go. Than the 50% took another 30. Yeah those items. Now given my luck I typically buy with real world money coal wards for 10% or less chance as it typically takes me hundreds of wards to make an item go up to the next ranking. So I run three character and since I will only main them for a specific role I will have to replaced 3 main hands, 3 off hands, 3 necks and 3 waist than I will spend around $120 for coal wards for that 10% mark given my horrible luck.

    That is a cost to me in real world money that I won't do and I'm not the only player that feels this way.

    Hold on a moment...
    That is a REAL statistical outlier though.
    I mean... seriously BIG numbers of misfortune.
    30 misses at 90% is statistically 30 hits at 10%
    Or, as it is otherwise known.

    1 in 10 to the power of 30

    You understand that the odds of that are, literally...
    1000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000:1 against, yeah?

    It's called (not kidding) a nonillion. (Even MS spell checker thinks I'm making that word up!)
    It's like getting 30 10 sided dice, chucking them all at once and ALL of them coming up 0...

    Now, I'm not calling you a liar... it may have happened the way you say.
    Any chance is higher than zero chance after all...
    But the chances of it happening again are... well... exactly the same as it happening the first time. And we've already established the odds of that.
    The odds of it happening again to YOU, are a nonillion multiplied by the entire player base.
    (Your 30 tries at 50% are a far more likely 1.07 billion to 1 against ever happening again.)

    On a more realistic (may happen from time to time in a normal situation) level.
    I've had 90% chances that took a lot of tries, never 30, but I guess I'm just lucky.
    But I've also had my share of 10% chances that hit first time. And 5% chances that landed in the first 3 or 4 goes. We never seem to remember those very well when we're complaining about other stuff though.

    As a consequence of my findings, I, for one, am not prepared to dismiss the notion of new (even Artefact) gear maybe being an OK thing on the basis of a run of astronomically, outrageously, mind bendingly unlikely run of fortune. One that I am confident will not strike me, or anyone else, not just in the near future, but ever.

    I don't know how your luck is at the moment or going forward, but I'm prepared to bet that it won't be as bad as it has been ever, (to the power of 30) again.
    so you've never had super bad luck in this game with the rng? I can't say I've personally had that happen at 90.. but I have had it happen at 80. even just recently with the gond thing. it's happened with kits trying to open a treasure node. I personally wouldn't buy coals instead of just spamming htru the coal wards if you have that kind of luck it's better to just quit til the next day and try again or pass it to a different toon if it's an enchant.

    I don't think you can apply real world math to this game when it comes to their rng. it seems like it's possible to have impossibly bad luck and impossibly good luck in this game that shouldn't be statistically possible. I don't know if it's buggy or made that way. but it seems like in a lot of instances their odds mean nothing. I started another thread about the good luck days. there are a few days I've had in this game over the last five years where everything turns up with a yes. last time this happened I rolled like 7 trophies from hunt targets in a row (before the changes) and then I got some second tier trophies. at that point I was like holy hamsters. I'm going to open some lock boxes and I will get my trex. and I did. third key. it wasnt' a surprise. I've had other days like that. they are very rare but I've learned not to ignore them. I've gotten other leg drops on those kinds of days.

    that is just as unlikely as bengals 90 percent fails..
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  • silvershard#4275 silvershard Posts: 95Member Arc User
    Yeah, I've had bad luck with refining. Didn't impact on whether I wanted to work toward new, better, gear that would also need refining because I understand that THAT is how the game works.
    They're not suddenly dropping this on us as some shock surprise.
    "New Gear coming with new level Cap" is not going to surprise anyone, but it makes for a convenient target for people who are looking for things to complain about.

    I've had outliers both ways. I missed 3 90% chances at odds of 1000:1 against. And have had quite a few 90%s that miss first time. And several that missed first AND second (which in itself is a 1 in 100 chance.)

    I've also had a more outrageous 100:1 chance which was so outrageous because it was EXACTLY when I needed it. Back when I was refining a Lightning Enchant in the old system where you had to use another one to as a feeder, and forgot to apply my Coal Ward before pressing the button, and just as I realised my mistake... it WORKED.
    You see 1 in 100 chances happen constantly, because the game is constantly running thousands of percentage based RNG rolls across the entire game. But we rarely notice them because they aren't important, we notice such outliers only when they mean something to us or we are looking for them.

    And I think sticking to real world maths is probably a safer bet than each of us coming up with their own way that numbers work in order to justify an argument.

    You really think that a run of luck on boxes is the same as 1'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000:1?

    I'm not sure you understand the size of that claim.

    Even if trophies had dropped at 1000:1 (which they didn't) chance and the TRex at 10'000:1 (which it didn't) and you got the TRex on your FIRST lockbox, (which you didn't) it still wouldn't be close. Nowhere NEAR. I mean seriously... HAMSTER light years away...

    Now... if you'd maybe got 20+ T Rex in a row, with no misses...
    Then you'd STILL be about 10 zeros short of Bengals ward claim.
    Come back when something like that happens.
    Or how about this... show me someone missing let's say... 6 or more 90% rolls (one in a million chance) with a vid of them scrolling back through the log to show it and I'll go "Yeah... you got me... but it's STILL twenty four zeroes shy of a nonillion to one..."

    I know I'm coming from a somewhat controversial position of using real world mathematics, and you are coming from the "it seems like" school of thought to back your stats up, so we are going to struggle to work from a complimentary platform.

    So you stick to making HAMSTER up to justify your argument, and I'll stick to education.
  • thefiresidecatthefiresidecat Posts: 3,054Member Arc User
    edited February 28
    I don't think the odds stated reflect reality of how they are programmed that's all. They've put numbers on a tool top but that doesn't mean the tool tip is correct still.
    I think there are bugs in the code

    And you cannot quantify what the odds were in the example I've posted because we have never been given numbers as to what the odds are for those things. You are not coming from a point of education you are coming from a point of assumption and ad hom. If you can't leave personal digs out of a debate it doesn't suggest you have strong footing for your base.
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  • silvershard#4275 silvershard Posts: 95Member Arc User
    edited February 28

    I don't think the odds stated reflect reality of how they are programmed that's all. They've put numbers on a tool top but that doesn't mean the tool tip is correct still.

    I think there are bugs in the code



    And you cannot quantify what the odds were in the example I've posted because we have never been given numbers as to what the odds are for those things. You are not coming from a point of education you are coming from a point of assumption and ad hom. If you can't leave personal digs out of a debate it doesn't suggest you have strong footing for your base.

    The tooltip may be off slightly, but by a magnitude of 30?
    It's so far from accurate that instead of 90% it's closer to 3%? But in some strange way that's not a constant, it's just for certan people, at certain times?
    Get real.

    And no, I can't state specifically what those odds were, but I CAN state that Trophies were lower than 1 in 1000, and T Rex was lower than 1 in 10'000, which is all the information needed to calculate that the chances of combining them gives a lower chance than the combined odds would be if they WERE 1000 and 10'000 respectively. Which is all I needed to know to challenge your claim that your circumstance had the same odds as 30 straight 1in 10 chances.

    (In fact they would actually need to be far HIGHER than those figures for your claim that the odds of it happening are the same as Bengals 30 straight 1 in 10 chances to be accurate. And that IS a quantifiable figure... its 1 in 1'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000, remember.)

    It works like this...
    If I know the odds of something are less than 1 in 100, I know that the chances of it happening three times in a row are less than 1 in 1000000.
    Or;
    If pies costs less than 2 dollars, and cakes cost less than three dollars, I can state with some HAMSTER confidence that with no other variables, the cost of 3 pies and 1 cake is less than 9 dollars. I don't NEED to know the exact individual costs to know that the combined value is lower than it would be if those costs were higher. (Are we there yet?)
    Or, 1 more try;
    1 is less than 2... therefore I can conclude that 2 x 1 is less than 4. (or... 2x2)
    I can TRY and make it simpler, but I haven't got any glove puppets.

    It may or may not "seem like" that to you, but it is how it works in the real world.

    I don't know about where you come from, but when I studied Mathematics, there was no formal variable such as; "Multiplied by W, where W= Whether you think someone is an idiot.
    I may indeed believe that, but it has no bearing on how the maths works..
  • thefiresidecatthefiresidecat Posts: 3,054Member Arc User
    edited February 28
    have you ever failed a 100 percent task in professions.. many of us have. how about getting an epic pack or a leg pack multiple times in a row. I haven't done the leg pack multiple times but I've seen people roll it more than once boom boom boom. I've rolled epic packs multiple times back to back. I"ve also rolled the same common things over and over and over. 6 or 7 of the same comp pack or enchant pack before it breaks back out into randomness

    which makes me suspect there are some looping bugs possibly present. yeah maybe it's just that's what happened to randomly roll.. but maybe it's not.

    You're STILL making up numbers as far as what the chances are on things that have no stated odds. NO actual math can be done on them. Your numbers are absolutely meaningless and made up. You are engaging in logical fallacies. all of your examples to try and prove your point are things that have base numbers already attached to them. there are none in lock boxes. you have zero to go on other than absolutely making things up. LOL

    The way the odds seem to be messed up in this game seems random rather than actual odds based at times.

    There are things in this game that I believe can be real world mathed... but there are things that seem to not stick to stated tool tips and odds.

    Things in the real world are not this game. If you think this game is the real world than you are the one that needs to reassess not I. This game was programmed by people who seem to like bugs. bugs are good luck and should not be killed seems to be the overarching sentiment given how long and pervasive some have been. Because of this it doesn't seem unrealistic to me, or silly to suspect something may be up when many people have reported the odds working unexpectedly in this game. this isn't a state lotto system that is controlled by a govt that requires things to be as described. as I recall they'd rather leave a country than comply to gambling regulations sooooo...

    Maybe bengal is overstating something maybe he's not. From what I've personally observed what bengal says is not impossible. Extraordinarily bad luck if so.. but I'd believe it based on other things I've seen in this game. it fits in with the various looping I've seen at times in other rng based things.

    I really suggest you learn how to debate without pulling out the insults. it doesn't garner you the respect I think you crave.

    Post edited by thefiresidecat on
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  • mebengalsfan#9264 mebengalsfan Posts: 2,721Member Arc User
    edited February 28

    I don't think the odds stated reflect reality of how they are programmed that's all. They've put numbers on a tool top but that doesn't mean the tool tip is correct still.

    I think there are bugs in the code



    And you cannot quantify what the odds were in the example I've posted because we have never been given numbers as to what the odds are for those things. You are not coming from a point of education you are coming from a point of assumption and ad hom. If you can't leave personal digs out of a debate it doesn't suggest you have strong footing for your base.

    The tooltip may be off slightly, but by a magnitude of 30?
    It's so far from accurate that instead of 90% it's closer to 3%? But in some strange way that's not a constant, it's just for certan people, at certain times?
    Get real.

    And no, I can't state specifically what those odds were, but I CAN state that Trophies were lower than 1 in 1000, and T Rex was lower than 1 in 10'000, which is all the information needed to calculate that the chances of combining them gives a lower chance than the combined odds would be if they WERE 1000 and 10'000 respectively. Which is all I needed to know to challenge your claim that your circumstance had the same odds as 30 straight 1in 10 chances.

    (In fact they would actually need to be far HIGHER than those figures for your claim that the odds of it happening are the same as Bengals 30 straight 1 in 10 chances to be accurate. And that IS a quantifiable figure... its 1 in 1'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000, remember.)

    It works like this...
    If I know the odds of something are less than 1 in 100, I know that the chances of it happening three times in a row are less than 1 in 1000000.
    Or;
    If pies costs less than 2 dollars, and cakes cost less than three dollars, I can state with some HAMSTER confidence that with no other variables, the cost of 3 pies and 1 cake is less than 9 dollars. I don't NEED to know the exact individual costs to know that the combined value is lower than it would be if those costs were higher. (Are we there yet?)
    Or, 1 more try;
    1 is less than 2... therefore I can conclude that 2 x 1 is less than 4. (or... 2x2)
    I can TRY and make it simpler, but I haven't got any glove puppets.

    It may or may not "seem like" that to you, but it is how it works in the real world.

    I don't know about where you come from, but when I studied Mathematics, there was no formal variable such as; "Multiplied by W, where W= Whether you think someone is an idiot.
    I may indeed believe that, but it has no bearing on how the maths works..
    You do understand the law of probability? In this case of the 90% item out of 10 attempts only 1 attempt should fail. That is the probability. However, each attempt is random and you may end up with 2 or 3 but it should not take 30. I know that but it happened to me and more than once.

    Now going onto an extreme I got to witness. One player was just lucky with the 1% success rate items. He took shards and made a lesser Fireburst using zero wards. Than from there he ranked it up to Trans using only 10 pres wards. With the law of probability the first attempt alone with only ten wards should have failed as he only had 1 out of 100 chances of being able to rank up the enchantment but he was able to rank it up to a Trans enchantment with only 10 wards. This completely breaks anything I studied in math and pretty much anything anybody studied.

    This goes into LB keys as well. Getting a legendary pack or mount is less than 1% in fact it is close to 0.1%, maybe a bit higher now. Yet I know one player that got not one but 3 legendary packs off 50 keys. That same player got around 12+ legendary packs using daily keys. Again, this breaks the law of probability.

    With that said, I used around 2200 keys at once during the summer sale of 2017 and I got zero legendary mounts; this is closer to the actual odds of probability than the players averaging one a month and getting 3 from 50 keys.

    This game odds are broken and bugged. Why can I do 3 fane and get 2 legendary rings and do it two weeks in a row. That is a broken odd as well. Why did I get 2 gravestriker +5 from 2 of my six maps and with a total of 5 ShadowStalker +5 and 3 Gravestriker +5 I have gotten. I know others who run 5 characters through both and have yet to get them. I stopped running my 3 characters and only ran my DC for a couple weeks. Again, I'm sure there is a bug here as well as I should not be getting so many +5 rings but I do.

    The game random odds are truly not random and more than likely bugged and because it is more than likely bugged it will cost me money when it shouldn't cost me money. It also why I am not as excited about this mod; just more bugs waiting to be discovered.

  • wintersmokewintersmoke Posts: 1,276Member Arc User

    I don't think the odds stated reflect reality of how they are programmed that's all. They've put numbers on a tool top but that doesn't mean the tool tip is correct still.

    I think there are bugs in the code



    And you cannot quantify what the odds were in the example I've posted because we have never been given numbers as to what the odds are for those things. You are not coming from a point of education you are coming from a point of assumption and ad hom. If you can't leave personal digs out of a debate it doesn't suggest you have strong footing for your base.

    The tooltip may be off slightly, but by a magnitude of 30?
    It's so far from accurate that instead of 90% it's closer to 3%? But in some strange way that's not a constant, it's just for certan people, at certain times?
    Get real.

    And no, I can't state specifically what those odds were, but I CAN state that Trophies were lower than 1 in 1000, and T Rex was lower than 1 in 10'000, which is all the information needed to calculate that the chances of combining them gives a lower chance than the combined odds would be if they WERE 1000 and 10'000 respectively. Which is all I needed to know to challenge your claim that your circumstance had the same odds as 30 straight 1in 10 chances.

    (In fact they would actually need to be far HIGHER than those figures for your claim that the odds of it happening are the same as Bengals 30 straight 1 in 10 chances to be accurate. And that IS a quantifiable figure... its 1 in 1'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000'000, remember.)

    It works like this...
    If I know the odds of something are less than 1 in 100, I know that the chances of it happening three times in a row are less than 1 in 1000000.
    Or;
    If pies costs less than 2 dollars, and cakes cost less than three dollars, I can state with some HAMSTER confidence that with no other variables, the cost of 3 pies and 1 cake is less than 9 dollars. I don't NEED to know the exact individual costs to know that the combined value is lower than it would be if those costs were higher. (Are we there yet?)
    Or, 1 more try;
    1 is less than 2... therefore I can conclude that 2 x 1 is less than 4. (or... 2x2)
    I can TRY and make it simpler, but I haven't got any glove puppets.

    It may or may not "seem like" that to you, but it is how it works in the real world.

    I don't know about where you come from, but when I studied Mathematics, there was no formal variable such as; "Multiplied by W, where W= Whether you think someone is an idiot.
    I may indeed believe that, but it has no bearing on how the maths works..
    Run a forum search on Brutality Rings. Or Legendary Mounts. Luck is a variable.
  • methuselasmethuselas Posts: 200Member Arc User
    Yup. Apparently they ninja nerfed VIPs by getting rid of ID scrolls. Apparently they feel it didn't "fit the game", but neglected to tell the people that paid for VIP, in which ID scrolls are included. -_-

  • methuselasmethuselas Posts: 200Member Arc User
    Personally, I've seen myself spend 20+ wards on a 30% chance upgrade on an Enchant. At the same time, I've also seen myself get a 10% on one go.

    The *PROBLEM* is, I get more imbalance than balance. I have a spread sheet where I "did the math" and quite frankly, the RNG doesn't add up. One you get past 50% it gets REALLY skewed and NOT in the player's favor. Even 90% is more like 88% in my tests.

    I won't go near Lockboxes, 'cos they don't like us "guessing" on those numbers, but when I have a 30% chance to upgrade an enchant and I upgrade 10, spend over 50 wards and my average is between 22-26%, the plus or minus variable is thrown out the window.

  • pteriaspterias Posts: 660Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User
    edited March 2
    When the mathematicians show up, they always assume that this game implements randomness 100% properly. The effects of probability, statistics, and observation bias talked about are totally and completely true... IN THEORY. No one is arguing the laws of math and randomness, what's being argued with is the IMPLEMENTATION IN THIS GAME. It is quite obviously inaccurate, buggy, streaky, and/or manipulated. Even in a single session it changes depending on various factors which I won't discuss (some of which I'm sure are meant to target bots), and some of the behavior has been altered over time. Just like any other gambling den, the slots can be tuned looser or tighter. There are also differences between live and test servers.

    Fortunately, they are going to add some streak breaking for refinement in Mod16 to curb some of the worst horror stories, making some of this discussion moot. However, it still doesn't clear the RNG implemented in this game.
  • ghoulz66ghoulz66 Posts: 3,748Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User
    cold#5127 said:

    MY opinion on mod 16
    The reality
    - the company doesnt have enough money/resources to upgrade servers, buy a new engine and code the game better
    - the aging engine is not capable to support pesky little things like dailies, encounters and mount power who eat up our fps, slow the game to a crawl and accept*fast and furious* gameplay
    - the servers need constant maintenance and they routinely provoke rage quits over uber lag, disconects and server not responding
    - unholy, bone deep love for gwf
    Marketing lingo
    - What they say : *streamlined*, *exciting*, *interesting*, *fun*
    - What they dont say : pls dear God make all our customers be 7-18 years old, capable to spend their parents money on a whim and have no life whatsoever outside gaming to be able to spend 3 hours on a CT run and 6 hours on a FBI run
    My opinion
    Atm i believe the game will work, after some tweaking, by the needs of the company. Unfortunately will not be NWN like it was at launch and the game who evolved in something fun/different, just a clone of the other mmo on the market.

    Everything has been dumbed down too much. I can't believe they want to go through with this rather than balance what we already had...
  • leonidrexleonidrex Posts: 390Member Arc User
    ghoulz66 said:

    cold#5127 said:

    MY opinion on mod 16
    The reality
    - the company doesnt have enough money/resources to upgrade servers, buy a new engine and code the game better
    - the aging engine is not capable to support pesky little things like dailies, encounters and mount power who eat up our fps, slow the game to a crawl and accept*fast and furious* gameplay
    - the servers need constant maintenance and they routinely provoke rage quits over uber lag, disconects and server not responding
    - unholy, bone deep love for gwf
    Marketing lingo
    - What they say : *streamlined*, *exciting*, *interesting*, *fun*
    - What they dont say : pls dear God make all our customers be 7-18 years old, capable to spend their parents money on a whim and have no life whatsoever outside gaming to be able to spend 3 hours on a CT run and 6 hours on a FBI run
    My opinion
    Atm i believe the game will work, after some tweaking, by the needs of the company. Unfortunately will not be NWN like it was at launch and the game who evolved in something fun/different, just a clone of the other mmo on the market.

    Everything has been dumbed down too much. I can't believe they want to go through with this rather than balance what we already had...
    nerf some buffs, make them addictive instead of multiplicative, make powershare work only on characters, not on companions. make shepherds devotion work only 1 at a time ( strongest one ), nerf some hard def options like KV,BOND,shield of faith, BOOM FIXED. suddenly meta is 1tank, 1healer, at least 2 dps, and 3rd dps or debuffer like MoF/CW. thats IT, ALL THAT WAS NEEDED NOT THIS HAMSTER
  • ghoulz66ghoulz66 Posts: 3,748Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User

    Dude really do you want them to give you it all at once. Have you not seen a movie trailer they show a little bit 1 minute of 2 hour movie. Be thankful they let you play and test it before its out. They don't need to tell us anything and I want it all as much as everyone but guess what something has to be a surprise, all you all want anymore is give give give, sad sad world because of people like you.

    It's too much to ask for a game that's dynamic and creative? Well enjoy your cookie cutter phone game. If management of this game want to try and be like their competitors, they are going to be destroyed. Every other class tank/healer/dps mmo is more unique than what mod 16 is offering.
  • cold#5127 cold Posts: 6Member Arc User
    @soulseeker
    This is not the proper way to support Mod 16. Please read Asterdahl posts and study his positive attitude aka be nice, polite, support changes with a smile, listen to feedback and fix things or promise to fix when possible.

    I have 2 *its possible* phrases for Mod 16
    First : Its possible bugs and errors that affected our toons one time or another to resurface. Add changes made to gear, companions, stones, etc to a new list of possible sources for iffy situations
    Second : Its possible, because of first, that some toons will be half broken/broken or even unplayable to the point of having to delete the account as a last solution

    My advice
    - prepare in advance a text for the ticket to make devs job of findind/fixing the problems easier
    - create a new account and make sure he has no connection with the old one. Raise a toon high enough to use chat,AH and charge a little bit of cash for VIP
  • ghoulz66ghoulz66 Posts: 3,748Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User

    ghoulz66 said:

    Dude really do you want them to give you it all at once. Have you not seen a movie trailer they show a little bit 1 minute of 2 hour movie. Be thankful they let you play and test it before its out. They don't need to tell us anything and I want it all as much as everyone but guess what something has to be a surprise, all you all want anymore is give give give, sad sad world because of people like you.

    It's too much to ask for a game that's dynamic and creative? Well enjoy your cookie cutter phone game. If management of this game want to try and be like their competitors, they are going to be destroyed. Every other class tank/healer/dps mmo is more unique than what mod 16 is offering.
    Then go play WOW, I guess you never played real D&D but this is where they are going and that's fine. What have a healing class if they cant heal??? Again you just want it all like and not to earn anything.
    Why do you keep parroting your words? I want all and not earn anything? I gotta earn fun interesting combat? How does that make any sense? And this is nothing like real D&D btw.

    Yes, healers heal. That could have been done, without destroying everything about the game that currently exists. Yeah it's really worth sacrificing years of what the game has always felt like for one concept that was poorly executed.
  • aerhythia#3255 aerhythia Posts: 74Member Arc User
    DC is a better healer then what's right now on preview, it's just unpopular builds with Virtuous or Faithful capstone, high crit, 2 or 3 healing encounters over buffs...

    Mod 16 makes healing necessary without improving how healing is done.

  • brainfirebob#3208 brainfirebob Posts: 22Member Arc User
    > @methuselas said:
    > Personally, I've seen myself spend 20+ wards on a 30% chance upgrade on an Enchant. At the same time, I've also seen myself get a 10% on one go.
    >
    > The *PROBLEM* is, I get more imbalance than balance. I have a spread sheet where I "did the math" and quite frankly, the RNG doesn't add up. One you get past 50% it gets REALLY skewed and NOT in the player's favor. Even 90% is more like 88% in my tests.
    >
    > I won't go near Lockboxes, 'cos they don't like us "guessing" on those numbers, but when I have a 30% chance to upgrade an enchant and I upgrade 10, spend over 50 wards and my average is between 22-26%, the plus or minus variable is thrown out the window.

    I believe, based on observation, that the reference isn't the player. It's not "open 100 lockboxes and get a 1% item", I think it's more like "the next 100 openings across this shard, one will get x."

    I've repeatedly seen in my guild, spending $10 on pres wards, have non-statistical good luck over the next 24 hours using them. Do it more than 2 weeks in a row, wait more than 4 weeks to do it, or dump more than $100 in a week, see the opposite. I think there's a background set RNG when we log on or buy things that refreshes periodically. I also think their probability calculator is non-normal in distribution, but still centered
  • mebengalsfan#9264 mebengalsfan Posts: 2,721Member Arc User

    ghoulz66 said:

    Dude really do you want them to give you it all at once. Have you not seen a movie trailer they show a little bit 1 minute of 2 hour movie. Be thankful they let you play and test it before its out. They don't need to tell us anything and I want it all as much as everyone but guess what something has to be a surprise, all you all want anymore is give give give, sad sad world because of people like you.

    It's too much to ask for a game that's dynamic and creative? Well enjoy your cookie cutter phone game. If management of this game want to try and be like their competitors, they are going to be destroyed. Every other class tank/healer/dps mmo is more unique than what mod 16 is offering.
    Then go play WOW, I guess you never played real D&D but this is where they are going and that's fine. What have a healing class if they cant heal??? Again you just want it all like and not to earn anything.
    Clerics are not just healers...They are there to buff the group up or has everyone forgotten about the spell BLESS. It is a level one spell and it buff up one player, not a great buff but a buff. Clerics also can take hit as they can wear all the same armor as a fighter and paladin but they have a bit lower HP.

    I played PnP D&D from the original all the way to 3e. I even kept up on the 4e and 5e rules. Clerics are in no way in PnP like they are in NWO. NWN did a better job creating classes and it felt like I was playing PnP D&D. NWO is definitely more MMO design and mod 16 it goes from a MMO feel to not even PnP feel but more like a loot shooter fantasy game. Ugh....


    I believe, based on observation, that the reference isn't the player. It's not "open 100 lockboxes and get a 1% item", I think it's more like "the next 100 openings across this shard, one will get x."



    I've repeatedly seen in my guild, spending $10 on pres wards, have non-statistical good luck over the next 24 hours using them. Do it more than 2 weeks in a row, wait more than 4 weeks to do it, or dump more than $100 in a week, see the opposite. I think there's a background set RNG when we log on or buy things that refreshes periodically. I also think their probability calculator is non-normal in distribution, but still centered

    This is probably more inline with how RNG is in NWO. You have 1 legendary mount to award and it will randomly be awarded within 6K LB keys being used; who gets the award will be 100% random on those value. Instead of it being RNG I think the system is predetermined to award the Legendary award its just a matter of who will get it.

    Using this logic, if there is a 1 in 10 odds of failure and other players are also trying to refine the item my odds shouldn't be horrible but if I get the unlucky 1 failure each time I try than nothing I can do about it.

    Than again, maybe the code is so messed up that mod 16 is required to fix the game buggy RNG that exist.
  • mebengalsfan#9264 mebengalsfan Posts: 2,721Member Arc User
    ghoulz66 said:

    cold#5127 said:

    MY opinion on mod 16
    The reality
    - the company doesnt have enough money/resources to upgrade servers, buy a new engine and code the game better
    - the aging engine is not capable to support pesky little things like dailies, encounters and mount power who eat up our fps, slow the game to a crawl and accept*fast and furious* gameplay
    - the servers need constant maintenance and they routinely provoke rage quits over uber lag, disconects and server not responding
    - unholy, bone deep love for gwf
    Marketing lingo
    - What they say : *streamlined*, *exciting*, *interesting*, *fun*
    - What they dont say : pls dear God make all our customers be 7-18 years old, capable to spend their parents money on a whim and have no life whatsoever outside gaming to be able to spend 3 hours on a CT run and 6 hours on a FBI run
    My opinion
    Atm i believe the game will work, after some tweaking, by the needs of the company. Unfortunately will not be NWN like it was at launch and the game who evolved in something fun/different, just a clone of the other mmo on the market.

    Everything has been dumbed down too much. I can't believe they want to go through with this rather than balance what we already had...
    I played a few different mmos and I noticed a trend and NWO is following it...

    Launch...1-3 years after launch the devs do an update to add more complexity to the game and this upset some players that quit. In another 2-3 years the complexity is to much for the newer players so the game gets simplified; this causes another set of players to get upset and leave causing financial hardship for the MMO company. At this point the company either decides to close the game down (City of Heroes) or the company quickly adjust the game a bit more to add some complexity back into it to encourage players to return, attract new player and to keep its current players active and engaged.

    NWO is at the year 5-6 window where they are simplifying the game for newer players; give this update another 18-24 months and we may see further tweaking to add complexity back into the game to try to bring back those that may leave now over these changes.

    I did state this game needed a revamp and some reduction in complexity. Mod 16 takes it a bit to far. The reduction in complexity was around how buffs were applied and reducing how power sharing worked in the game. Fixing those things would have made it easier to understand the game and would have allows us as a players to have the various builds with feats, etc... Instead the development team over simplified our characters and add some complexity to our companions.

    I'm sorry but I disliked how that was done. If the devs would have done the simplification on buffs and powersharing and added what they did for the companions into the game, the game would be much better long term for us as players. The devs could have adjusted/removed stats and added counter stat or add diminishing returns to our stats where instead of 400 to gain 1% it could take 800 to gain 1% after we hit say 50% in the that stat. I'm all for change if the change doesn't ruin the core foundation of the game; NWO core has changed completely.

    I'm also laughing at the whole idea of clamping our stats and adjusting damage to be 1/5 of for at wills, encounters, and dailies. These changes cannot be maintained. Clamping will make players feel weak when they go into a lower zone; I have seen this in other games. ESO does full on stat but when you hit end game your get Champion Points and after you hit 160 champion points the character really starts to shine/improve throughout the game as 160 is what everything is based on and once you surpass that you start to gain small incremental boost from your champion points making you feel more powerful as you raise the champion points. Yeah ESO is facing power creep as well but simple modification to the system would allow ESO to keep it in play and still allow players to gain in power and feel themselves get stronger over time.

    Mod 16 NWO is more a loot shooter than a action RGPMMO do to how character customization was removed from the players. Players who enjoy RPGMMO like being able to customize their character and mod 16 we really don't have that and anyone who enjoys this game for the customization we have had for a while now will leave when mod 16 hits if they haven't done so already.
  • silverkeltsilverkelt Posts: 4,201Member, NW M9 Playtest Arc User
    Fundamentally, I always have a problem with people arguing that content 3-4+ years old needs to remain valid.

    I always counter it with.. they simply do not, or will not put the proper resourcing in to release enough new content outside of campaigns in a year.

    I am generally opposed to any new campaigns do to this.. they are just complete time wastes and have been for the longest time.. boring and overall generally grindy since mod 10 (when they released the SKT, Cloaked Ascendancy, Chult and Omo.. back to back to back campaigns that are all similar timed in its extravagance to make players do nothing for long periods of time to achieve little back).
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