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Weapon Proc bug / confusion
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Member, NoReporting Posts: 178,019 Arc User
I'm cross posting this because i accidentally posted it in the tribble section of the forum.
I'm not sure this is a bug but i'm going to explain whats happening anyway.
Ok I fly a cruiser with 8 turrets. All disruptor.
The public consensus is that weapon's procs can occur off each individual hit from a weapon. One of the reasons Dual cannons were favored over Dual Heavy cannons for a while.
Assuming this is true:
8 turrets @ 3 "pulses" per turret = 24 pulses per whatever. Lets call it 3 seconds. I think thats about right.
So 24 x 2.5% chance of disruptor proc = 60% chance of one of the turrets proccing per 3 second cycle.
Now the debuff lasts 15 seconds so thats 5 3 second cycles.
It seems to me practically impossible that, if this was working properly, the disruptor proc would be up constantly. Not hitting a 60% chance 5 times in a row is rediculously unlikely.
However the proc almost never chains. I say almost never because i have had it chain over and over just refreshing the duration while i kill borg cubes so it sometimes works. Simply put the 60% is rubbish.
So where is the error in the maths? It should proc a LOT more often than it does given the number of little pulses per 15 seconds.
Alternatively, assuming the chance to proc is once per cycle and not per proc, the following is true.
8 turrets x 2.5% chance = 20% chance for a proc to occur. Cycle still lasts 3 seconds so should get 5 cycles in the duration of the debuff. 5 x 20% = 100%. So even with only 2.5% chance per cycle the debuff should be up constantly. Ofcourse its not a 100% chance its 40 individual 2.5% chance procs but over any given period of time it should have similar results.
I really dont get why the proc drops off and spends large ammounts of time not applied.
I'm not sure this is a bug but i'm going to explain whats happening anyway.
Ok I fly a cruiser with 8 turrets. All disruptor.
The public consensus is that weapon's procs can occur off each individual hit from a weapon. One of the reasons Dual cannons were favored over Dual Heavy cannons for a while.
Assuming this is true:
8 turrets @ 3 "pulses" per turret = 24 pulses per whatever. Lets call it 3 seconds. I think thats about right.
So 24 x 2.5% chance of disruptor proc = 60% chance of one of the turrets proccing per 3 second cycle.
Now the debuff lasts 15 seconds so thats 5 3 second cycles.
It seems to me practically impossible that, if this was working properly, the disruptor proc would be up constantly. Not hitting a 60% chance 5 times in a row is rediculously unlikely.
However the proc almost never chains. I say almost never because i have had it chain over and over just refreshing the duration while i kill borg cubes so it sometimes works. Simply put the 60% is rubbish.
So where is the error in the maths? It should proc a LOT more often than it does given the number of little pulses per 15 seconds.
Alternatively, assuming the chance to proc is once per cycle and not per proc, the following is true.
8 turrets x 2.5% chance = 20% chance for a proc to occur. Cycle still lasts 3 seconds so should get 5 cycles in the duration of the debuff. 5 x 20% = 100%. So even with only 2.5% chance per cycle the debuff should be up constantly. Ofcourse its not a 100% chance its 40 individual 2.5% chance procs but over any given period of time it should have similar results.
I really dont get why the proc drops off and spends large ammounts of time not applied.
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Edit: On another thought i don't think procs stack at all.
I was talking about the fact that it doesnt chain proc, refreshing the duration, very often and it should be up constantly like Gypsy_Blade says. However this is not the case and i want to know why not.
And the brilliant thing about Probabilities is that there is always a chance of always failing. :eek:
So 24 x 2.5% chance of disruptor proc = 60% chance of one of the turrets proccing per 3 second cycle.
Actually, to find the chance of something happening over multiple attempts, you find the chance of it not happening each time and subtract that from 100%.
So a 2.5% chance of it happening once is a 97.5% chance of it not happening. So we take 0.975^24 = 0.544641558
So you have a 54.4% chance of not getting any procs at all during that time. Which means you have an effective 45.6% chance of getting at least one.
So now if you again want to find the chances of getting it at least once during a 15 second interval (with a 45.6% chance of it happening every 3 seconds) we again have to do it backwards.
0.544641558^5 = 0.0479240908
So, theoretically, you should have a ~95% chance of having it proc at least once during that time.
BUT, I am not sure if the debuff gets extended with additional applications (i.e. 10 seconds remaining and it procs again so the timer gets reset to 15). If it doesn't, which is my guess, then the chance of keeping it up is not based on it procing at least once during the 15 second duration, but it will only have an effect if the debuff is not current active. Which means the instant the debuff expires, you now have a 2.5% chance (per turret) of it getting reapplied instantly, assuming you hit at the instant the previous one wears off.
0.975^8 (because we want it reapplied instantly, not at some point during a period of time) = 0.816651804
which means you have ~18% chance of it happening again right away with all turrets firing the exact moment the previous debuff expires.
Feel free to correct my math. I've been out of high school for a long time.