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STO = 100k Subs - Age of Conan / Warhammer has 300k and they are barely surviving...

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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Counting @handles is not guessing at all. It's a reliable figure for units sold. It does not matter what use those accounts are put to or if they are active it os still an accurate indicator of units sold.

    If Cryptic's Captain's database is not a reliable source then they are being disingenuous. It does not matter if an account is inactive or banned, it is still a fair account of how many units, total, have sold, less the multiple copies tied to one account, which given that the number in the database was nearer to 194k and Cryptic statements show that sales were less than 200k it is safe to say that those multiple accounts number at least less than 6000 and I'd wager a lot less. But you don't like guessing.

    Don't dismiss it just because you don't understand it.

    @handles is the most accurate figure you will currently reach for total games sold whatever the current status or use for the account, that number is a given.

    First of all it's you telling us that it's accurate. The numbers you claim are true but you don't offer the proof that shows it to be true. Or verified by Cryptic. Box copies sold doesn't prove how many subscribe to the game. Some people bought the game and never subscribed. Gold farmers by multipliable copies of the game and are not real players. People have multipliable accounts. You can't determine accurate numbers of subscriptions. From copies sold. With inaccurate numbers of sales you are guessing at. With sources that can't be verified.

    I understand that it's not accurate.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    First of all it's you telling us that it's accurate. The numbers you claim are true but you don't offer the proof that shows it to be true. Or verified by Cryptic. Box copies sold doesn't prove how many subscribe to the game. Some people bought the game and never subscribed. Gold farmers by multipliable copies of the game and are not real players. People have multipliable accounts. You can't determine accurate numbers of subscriptions. From copies sold. With inaccurate numbers of sales you are guessing at. With sources that can't be verified.

    I understand that it's not accurate.
    Uh, Zoot stated in his original post that it's only indicative of units sold not of current active subscribers.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    First of all it's you telling us that it's accurate. The numbers you claim are true but you don't offer the proof that shows it to be true. Or verified by Cryptic. Box copies sold doesn't prove how many subscribe to the game. Some people bought the game and never subscribed. Gold farmers by multipliable copies of the game and are not real players. People have multipliable accounts. You can't determine accurate numbers of subscriptions. From copies sold. With inaccurate numbers of sales you are guessing at. With sources that can't be verified.

    I understand that it's not accurate.

    what does any of what you say have bearing on the final figure? What if it is a gold farmer account? Is it not a unit sold? An @handle by the very definition has to be a unit sold and registered.
    I did not make any claim about the amount of players, active, inactive or other. I merely said it's as accurate a picture of units sold that you can get.

    Please, it's rude to infer that I made any forecast of active players. I said no such thing.I did not discuss how many people were actively subscribed players, in fact i said you could not determine that. I merely said we have, from a Cryptic source, a database that allows us to see the number of accounts registered.

    Once again, if you can't understand it don't be dismissive. You are as much as calling me a liar to my face in a bid to be inflammatory.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Cosmic_One wrote: »
    Uh, Zoot stated in his original post that it's only indicative of units sold not of current active subscribers.

    It doesn't indicate units sold either. He can't prove the number from @handles is accurate. That the sources is reliable. How many of those are cryptic accounts that weren't sold. That's not accurate either.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    what does any of what you say have bearing on the final figure? What if it is a gold farmer account? Is it not a unit sold? An @handle by the very definition has to be a unit sold and registered.
    I did not make any claim about the amount of players, active, inactive or other. I merely said it's as accurate a picture of units sold that you can get.

    Please, it's rude to infer that I made any forecast of active players. I said no such thing.I did not discuss how many people were actively subscribed players, in fact i said you could not determine that. I merely said we have, from a Cryptic source, a database that allows us to see the number of accounts registered.

    Once again, if you can't understand it don't be dismissive. You are as much as calling me a liar to my face in a bid to be inflammatory.

    You can't prove how many @handles cryptic have in the game. That they gave to employee's for play or test or whatever. No real way to determine accurate numbers from that either.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    You can't prove how many @handles cryptic have in the game. That they gave to employee's for play or test or whatever. No real way to determine accurate numbers from that either.

    Are you not able to read? What if Cryptic gave away 10k copies ( I can assure you that they would have not been in a position to do so ) What if what if what if? The @handles are there for anyone to count. Thankfully somebody else did the counting and it's about 190k. Give or take 10% inaccuracy that's still as indicative a figure you can get for units sold.

    If you can't understand that statement then please stop insulting me for your shortcomings.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Are you not able to read? What if Cryptic gave away 10k copies ( I can assure you that they would have not been in a position to do so ) What if what if what if? The @handles are there for anyone to count. Thankfully somebody else did the counting and it's about 190k. Give or take 10% inaccuracy that's still as indicative a figure you can get for units sold.

    If you can't understand that statement then please stop insulting me for your shortcomings.

    It's real simple Zoot. I am in the captains database. You can't tell how many copies I bought of the game. Because I am in the database. Or any other player. How many Cryptic gave to employees, CBS or Atari. You can say that the 190k is true. You can't prove it. Or any other claim you have made.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    @handles would also include the sizable section of people playing beta only in addition to anyone who played Champions at any stage. It'd be hard to figure out how many overlapped and how many had never purchased anything at all given the Champions Demo is free for anyone to try out.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    It's real simple Zoot. I am in the captains database. You can't tell how many copies I bought of the game. Because I am in the database. Or any other player. How many Cryptic gave to employees, CBS or Atari. You can say that the 190k is true. You can't prove it. Or any other claim you have made.

    And I didn't make that claim. You are just spoiling for a fight so 'll now ignore any further discussion with you on this matter in the hope that what I've said already is enough for those with better reading comprehension to understand.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    DFawkes wrote: »
    @handles would also include the sizable section of people playing beta only in addition to anyone who played Champions at any stage. It'd be hard to figure out how many overlapped and how many had never purchased anything at all given the Champions Demo is free for anyone to try out.

    @handles don't contain beta information. That information is not in the captain's database. The game was rebooted at launch. Anything in the DB now is accounts registered from head start launch.

    This has nothing to do with cryptic accounts ( forum accounts cross-game ) or champions online. This is a database of registered accounts on the current server.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    It's real simple Zoot. I am in the captains database. You can't tell how many copies I bought of the game. Because I am in the database. Or any other player. How many Cryptic gave to employees, CBS or Atari. You can say that the 190k is true. You can't prove it. Or any other claim you have made.
    Still, you didn't create separate subscriptions for each of those copies.

    Furthermore, press copies aren't that much (really) when dealing with 190,000. Even if 1000 were IP/Publisher/press copies (which is an absurdly large number) - that'd still put us 189,000.

    Those @handles were only taken from Captain's Database: meaning no Champions overlap.

    For anyone clamoring that STO is barely afloat, consider that:
    • Operational costs of STO are less (there aren't dozens of entirely separate servers with their own associated costs)
    • Split engine development costs with Champions (allows for both games to have lower development costs throughout their lifespans)
    • Team developed their own proprietary tools (instead of licensing) - aids in development team knowing what they can do with the tools.

    That said, STO is doing well and another Popkornn thread keeps getting rez'zed- continuing the natural order of things.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    okkkkkkkk let the horse die already even ta the uninformed number of 100k subs that is 18 mill a year based on 15 bucks a month i went liftime not sure if that number is correct. 18 mill a year is more than enought to run this game. they got thier upfront money back from just box sales. so if they even keep 100k subs things will move along just fine
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    varuflur wrote: »
    okkkkkkkk let the horse die already even ta the uninformed number of 100k subs that is 18 mill a year based on 15 bucks a month i went liftime not sure if that number is correct. 18 mill a year is more than enought to run this game. they got thier upfront money back from just box sales. so if they even keep 100k subs things will move along just fine
    True, and that's not even including the C-Store revenue. Revenue other than monthly subscriptions and box sales are possible.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Still, you didn't create separate subscriptions for each of those copies.

    Furthermore, press copies aren't that much (really) when dealing with 190,000. Even if 1000 were IP/Publisher/press copies (which is an absurdly large number) - that'd still put us 189,000.

    Those @handles were only taken from Captain's Database: meaning no Champions overlap.

    For anyone clamoring that STO is barely afloat, consider that:
    • Operational costs of STO are less (there aren't dozens of entirely separate servers with their own associated costs)
    • Split engine development costs with Champions (allows for both games to have lower development costs throughout their lifespans)
    • Team developed their own proprietary tools (instead of licensing) - aids in development team knowing what they can do with the tools.

    That said, STO is doing well and another Popkornn thread keeps getting rez'zed- continuing the natural order of things.

    You don't know that the 190k is accurate. How many were giving away. How many copies were sold. You can't get a reliable number sold from an unreliable number. Like I said we are all just guessing.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Rhysati wrote: »
    Ummm...no. Just no. Final Fantasy already has an online MMO. It hasn't done anywhere near the success of WoW. Another one isn't going to change anything. Especially not when it remains so focused on grinding.

    As for WoW...they have NOT announced that the next expansion is the last. In fact, far from it. This next one raises the level cap to level 85 and the developers have been clear that they intend the level cap to hit 120 before the end of its life span.

    uhm no. just no. the main issues here are that 11 came out at least 2 years before WoW, so the latter had time to learn from the formers mistakes. the big drawback to 11 is that it was purely for hardcore mmo players. a horrendous inability to solo nearly anything in the game, level capped content, etc. all would deter any casual player. WoW was able to cater to both casual and hardcore.

    as for 14 remaining "so focused on grinding", i don't know where you get that information from. the latest about the game is that its a total revamp of what 11 was as well as incorporating some elements they have in recent final fantasy games. combat has been changed to cater to both group and solo play, and levels per se have been removed, opting more for skill building like in ff 10 (redefined in ff 13)
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    You don't know that the 190k is accurate. How many were giving away. How many copies were sold. You can't get a reliable number sold from an unreliable number. Like I said we are all just guessing.
    True, but if we're going into epistemological territory - why not let this thread die?
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    varuflur wrote: »
    okkkkkkkk let the horse die already even ta the uninformed number of 100k subs that is 18 mill a year based on 15 bucks a month i went liftime not sure if that number is correct. 18 mill a year is more than enought to run this game. they got thier upfront money back from just box sales. so if they even keep 100k subs things will move along just fine

    given that a good fair number of those are lifetime subscribers. Given that that figure includes all inactive accounts, the income figure will be a great deal less. But to speculate how much less is difficult.
    However even at best estimates it still puts STO in a position where it will take 2 years before it comes into profit ( which would be a reasonable target to set pre-launch for any company ).
    What Cryptic now have the unenviable job of is to maintain if not grow the current revenue because given that Atari ( there is no difference between Atari and Cryptic, it;s just a different name on the paycheck ) are in such financial difficulty, have a $40M bond to pay off on top of the remainder of the loans they have yet to pay off, because even if Cryptic came into profit in 2 years it won't get Atari out of the mess they are in now.
    Without revenue the game will die and Atari are in no position to have another round of capital raising at the markets with their financials due about now ( financials set to show another loss)/
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    You don't know that the 190k is accurate. How many were giving away. How many copies were sold. You can't get a reliable number sold from an unreliable number. Like I said we are all just guessing.
    I don't think most people care about a margin of error of 1-10% even. We mostly are interested in the ball-park figure. We can get that from the database.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    True, but if we're going into epistemological territory - why not let this thread die?

    Live and let Live I say!
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    This is one thread that never seems to die.


    It isn't like it really matters anymore, either the game will succeed or it won't. My personal opinion, the game is doing ok and will continue to get better for some and worse for others.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Cosmic_One wrote: »
    I don't think most people care about a margin of error of 1-10% even. We mostly are interested in the ball-park figure. We can get that from the database.

    The thing is you can't even prove that it's in the ball park. You can't prove that it's in same state. I have seen people claim they have bought 5 copies. You can prove they did. You can't prove they didn't. You can't prove your within 10%. You can't prove their was 100 more captains put in today or a 1000 more were added yesterday. No way to know that 190k number was ever real. Their may be 300k captains in there.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    The thing is you can't even prove that it's in the ball park. You can't prove that it's in same state. I have seen people claim they have bought 5 copies. You can prove they did. You can't prove they didn't. You can't prove your within 10%. You can't prove their was 100 more captains put in today or a 1000 more were added yesterday. No way to know that 190k number was ever real. Their may be 300k captains in there.

    Now you are just being really insulting. You can prove it by counting them. It does not matter if the copies are paid for or not. It does not matter if the account owner is playing. The simple fact is that there are approximately 190K registered STO @handles and if you can't comprehend the reasoning behind that stop insulting others by inferring that they are lying.

    The data was scraped form the database about 3 weeks ago and another poster made a thread about it. II was not subscribed at the time and did not comment.

    But seriously I really don't care that you don't understand it, I do care that instead of attempting to understand what is clear to others and myself, you would rather dismiss it in a 'la la la la I'm not listening' kind of way. And for that I'm now putting you on ignore.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    The thing is you can't even prove that it's in the ball park. You can't prove that it's in same state. I have seen people claim they have bought 5 copies. You can prove they did. You can't prove they didn't. You can't prove your within 10%. You can't prove their was 100 more captains put in today or a 1000 more were added yesterday. No way to know that 190k number was ever real. Their may be 300k captains in there.
    It doesn't matter if the number is more. When trying to prove or disprove that the game didn't sell well the minimum number is the only one that matters. And yes, we can multiply and determine how many captains are in the database, and it's currently over 400,000. :)
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Englebert wrote:
    The thing is you can't even prove that it's in the ball park. You can't prove that it's in same state. I have seen people claim they have bought 5 copies. You can prove they did. You can't prove they didn't. You can't prove your within 10%. You can't prove their was 100 more captains put in today or a 1000 more were added yesterday. No way to know that 190k number was ever real. Their may be 300k captains in there.

    I can prove it, come back in 42 years and I will tell you the answer.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Now you are just being really insulting. You can prove it by counting them. It does not matter if the copies are paid for or not. It does not matter if the account owner is playing. The simple fact is that there are approximately 190K registered STO @handles and if you can't comprehend the reasoning behind that stop insulting others by inferring that they are lying.

    The data was scraped form the database about 3 weeks ago and another poster made a thread about it. II was not subscribed at the time and did not comment.

    But seriously I really don't care that you don't understand it, I do care that instead of attempting to understand what is clear to others and myself, you would rather dismiss it in a 'la la la la I'm not listening' kind of way. And for that I'm now putting you on ignore.

    Show me the proof of the 190,000 is accurate please. I need proof to believe it. You can try to flame bait me Zoot. I am not mad or upset. Like I said you are just guessing. To prove your point of veiw Atari Cryptic and STO are failing.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    http://news.bigdownload.com/2010/03/16/february-2010-pc-game-retail-sales-sees-sims-3-and-star-trek-onl/


    now since sto sold out of most of its first run boxes i can see no reason it is still in dete for sto startup cost
    and if a good many are liftime subs say even 30% at 249 bucks is 7,470,000 and you ad in even a low 200k boxes at 49.95 is 9,990,000 total is 17,460,000 in the first month money men look at this not what the company as a whole is doing so i do not belive sto has anything to worrie about . and if you read above sto is number 2 in sales for feb and to find total subs in a game is like finding a black ball in a black hole. i also found a 3rd party web site that says sto is still noumber 3 in sales for april but i cant back it up withanother site so i did not post it
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    wrote:
    http://news.bigdownload.com/2010/03/16/february-2010-pc-game-retail-sales-sees-sims-3-and-star-trek-onl/


    now since sto sold out of most of its first run boxes i can see no reason it is still in dete for sto startup cost
    and if a good many are liftime subs say even 30% at 249 bucks is 7,470,000 and you ad in even a low 200k boxes at 49.95 is 9,990,000 total is 17,460,000 in the first month money men look at this not what the company as a whole is doing so i do not belive sto has anything to worrie about . and if you read above sto is number 2 in sales for feb and to find total subs in a game is like finding a black ball in a black hole. i also found a 3rd party web site that says sto is still noumber 3 in sales for april but i cant back it up withanother site so i did not post it
    Your data has no basis for fact. Saying they were the #2 selling game in Feb doesnt' mean they sold-out most of its first first-run boxes. It just means they were #2 for Feb. I would also hope you understand that Cryptic gets about 40% of a retail sale. So for every $50 box sold they gross about $20.00, and that's gross not net. Finally, LTSs are no where near 30%. I seriously doubt there's even 10,000 LTSs sold.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    varuflur wrote: »
    http://news.bigdownload.com/2010/03/16/february-2010-pc-game-retail-sales-sees-sims-3-and-star-trek-onl/


    now since sto sold out of most of its first run boxes i can see no reason it is still in dete for sto startup cost
    and if a good many are liftime subs say even 30% at 249 bucks is 7,470,000 and you ad in even a low 200k boxes at 49.95 is 9,990,000 total is 17,460,000 in the first month money men look at this not what the company as a whole is doing so i do not belive sto has anything to worrie about . and if you read above sto is number 2 in sales for feb and to find total subs in a game is like finding a black ball in a black hole. i also found a 3rd party web site that says sto is still noumber 3 in sales for april but i cant back it up withanother site so i did not post it


    Your figures are flawed because you fail to take into account actual revenue as opposed to perceived revenue.

    The box sales will generate the least revenue due to packaging costs.

    Digital revenue depends upon the distributor. Revenues per unit profit can be as little as 15% for the actual product owner after everybody gets their cut.

    Cryptic's entire yearly revenue when Atari bought them was $17M, that's revenue, not profit. There was no talk of profit and given that Cryptic were 2 weeks from folding themselves when Jack Emmert talked his friend at Perpetual into a transfer of license agreement you can be sure that there was no profit in that.

    So we have a company that Atari made a $40M bond issue to buy plus the estimated between $20M investment in STO ( Atari invested $40M in R&D for last period ) that means Cryptic owes Atari £60M in revenue before they start to pay back.
    STO lifetime subs are not being factored into the revenue in bulk but are being trickled in monthly as though they were subscriptions ( I'm not repeating all of the financial details as I've gone through it all in critical detail in the past )

    I don't understand your sales claims. I've not seen a reputable industry account that shows STO in the top 10 sales ever. But You may be able to prove different.

    I'm not suggesting STO is in trouble nor an I suggesting Atari will not maintain it despite their $750M losses for the last decade showing no upturn.

    I'm just a stickler for the facts.

    You can't just multiply numbers by retail price for any product and get the amount that the product maker receives.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Popkornn wrote:
    However AOC does have near 300k...

    It's obvious you don't play the game, or you would see that number is ridiculously inaccurate.
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    Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    i did not say anything about subs and box sales and in reality sto sold over 650k boxes cant find the website but had it talking about start up cost vs income to offset said costs even at 650k at 20 bucks a pop thats 13 million and the profit per box is more like 30 bucks game disk cost .25 per copy manual and paperwork 1.00 per, box cost 1.00 though im sure thses figuers arnt fact im sure they are close and shipping of 4.00 per box and even add misc cost your at about 30bucks per box sale. and see i can pull numbers out of my anal cavity too all that has been posted here is fiction. you all post like you have real numbers in front of you lol i find it amusing. but i have one weakness and thats fedding trolls
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