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Fair drop rate yeah right
hylia
Member Posts: 144 Arc User
so yesterday i bought 25k zens worth of promo boxes so roughly 145 and drops from said boxes 0 nada zilch what a joke cryptic
Post edited by wingedhussar#7584 on
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As Louis Wu said in Ringworld, "Lady Luck has no memory."
And now you know why some of us never, ever buy promo boxes. Only do that if you're after lobi, because about 98.5% of the time that's what you're getting.
This is why I will not waste zen on promo boxes of any kind. Its literally cheaper in some cases to buy it from the exchange.
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Both sentiments are accurate & I say that admitting I used to give-in occassionally to the gambling temptation years ago, but the disappointment far outweighs the excitement overall.
so if drop rate is 1% then if you open infinite amount of boxes you'll get the reward in every 100th box (though in practice due the chance being random the distribution is even but rather sometimes you'd might get it in the 50th and on another time on the 150th but when you average it out it'll be on the 100th).
So even if the announced drop rate is 1% it doesn't mean every 100th box has the grand price unless you open quadrillions of boxes (and even that might not be enough as infinity is a mathematical concept that is impossible to reach is real life).
The quoted person above makes a wise observation, as that much lobi get you easily 1 Lobi Ship, not to mention several Lobi Items. Some of those alone often sell for several Hundred Million credit, even a few go quite a bit higher.
Now if you wait for a Lobi Sale/Discount, aside from all the items, you can choose to use, upgrade for characters, or later sell for more Credit. Sometimes you can open 100 boxes and get 1 Ship, possibly even 2 though it is rare. While other times you may need to open 200 or more.
Promo or Lockboxes should been done within a reasonable limits, so be smart. Some also wait for larger KEY packs or promo pack sales, and sell their key's or packs on exchange to buy the ship on the Market.
They make sure never to specify who the drop rate is fair towards.
If they claimed it was the player they'd easily be caught by the lie and if they admitted it was fair for themselves noone would want to drop cash on gambleboxes. I used to use my stipend to get some keys once the zen balance got over a threshold but nowadays I don't bother at all due to the greedonomics ruling the store and ship bundles and continued stacking of boxes with trash, infinity boxes have the doffs as individual entries on the prize list on top of the usual booster padding.
I'll add to that. He got 145 boxes of R&D materials too. The Lobi and the chance of a box are free items tagged on to an established product.
I open the boxes, only when I want a lobi, if he wanted a ship, he should have sold the keys and bought the ship on the exchange.
Try to keep in mind in the future to just sell the boxes. Its all you can really do. (Also ignore the comments that treat you like an idiot for expecting a reward from gambling)
Gamble boxes are a ripoff.
The 1% is per box. It's not per stack or per how many you are opening in a row. Secondly, while the "advice" to sell is decent as i think you can get between 18 and 25 million per box(depending on r&d or duty officer..) it still leads to one problem. If everyone just buys them for easy ec, not only will demand dry up, but so would the supply of promo ships on the exchange.
People need to open the boxes. In your case i would have sold @80 boxes(in groups of two) and chanced the rest. Even at 18 mil it would have given you 1.4 bil ec and chances to win. I didn't get any ship boxes this time, but i got 2 last time, and only opened about 35 boxes....
Yep.
Of course, you can calculate an overall chance that you'll succeed at X% chance in Y attempts.*
Just for giggles, I threw together a spreadsheet for 1% and 145 tries. Turns out to be a 76.71% chance you'll get at least one success in 145 boxes. Which is still a 23.3% chance of failure.
(at 100 boxes exactly, it's 63.4%. Very good chance of not getting a win)
edit: and is the chance even 1%? Or is it lower?
* multiply all the chances of failing. Subtract that from 100% to get your cumulative chance of a success.
Example: flip a coin trying for heads.
Chance of failure on two tries is .5 x .5 = .25
Chance of failure on all three tries is .5 x .5 x .5 = .125
So the chance you'll get at least one success in three tries is 100% - 12.5% = 87.5%
Making a spreadsheet for any % and lots of attempts is pretty easy.
> Just don't gamble. Cause that is what the boxes are. The house always has the advantage and will win in the end.
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Everyone hopes they're the lucky bloke who serves as motivation for the others. So many names on the screen, why can't it be mine?
As if anyone really wants mats and Lobi. Next thing is soneone opening boxes for the cool combo batteries that increase shields and engine power...
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I have actually done that playing roulette. I would watch the wheel, and if i saw 3 odd, 3 even (red,Black) I'd bet on the opposite.
the odds do not change but the statistical probability DOES.
You're guaranteed to get a prize, and Lobi, every time you open a lockbox in STO. What prize you get is random. I've opened lockboxes a few dozen times, never gotten a ship once.
Thread closed.
...THEN THE WINGED HUSSARS ARRIVED!