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is there really a secret method to winning lock box ships?
umformtechnik
Member Posts: 88 Arc User
a certain guy who is a notorious winner of ships said that if you open packs immediately after a message that someone won a ship that you have a higher chance to win. is this really true?
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Though this particular belief might be yet another reason why these messages need to stay from Cryptic's point of view.
Actually there is one weird trick, that's taking STO by storm: DO NOT OPEN THEM AT ALL.
On PC, this probably doesn't work well for consoles yet:
Sell the lock box keys on the exchange for 5.x million each. Use the EC to buy the ship from the exchange (under Reward Packs) or for the T6 Connie from the trade channels.
On PC, the exchange price has been over 5 million EC for months. And thanks to the Infinity box many lock box ships are in the 110 - 140 million EC range. 20-25 keys = Herald Quas, Tholian Orb Weaver, etc.
Sell the boxes for 5 million EACH? on Console?? Pull the other one, it has bells on it. I have a character at level 30, and she has 50+ boxes already, they have flooded the console so heavily you cannot give them away. No-one wants to buy them, but people do sell stacks of 20 for 1000 EC. Very rarely see them at a higher price than that. Plus, the console only has one box type so far, the Jem'hadar Destroyer/Keldon Class Cardassian ship drop box. And with the keys at 125 Zen each, only the richest people are buying them. I have like 10K dilithium that I struggle to hang onto because of equipment upgrades.
Plus, reward pack ships are RARE on console on the exchange right now. They trade for 50M+ EC.
Edit: As of right now on console, there are 3 (yes, 3!) reward pack ships, two from the lockboxes, and the Jem'Hadar T6 Heavy Escort Carrier.
Us romulans get completely punished with only having 3 ships to choose from aside from the reward pack stuff or the Romulan Dyson Sphere ships. Its....depressing.
Perhaps you skipped over this sentence?
"On PC, this probably doesn't work well for consoles yet:"
On PC = not on the consoles.
Probably doesn't work well for consoles yet = not on the consoles.
There were more, but thanks to people broadcasting threads like this it puts a spotlight on for the devs to look into, hence why one method no longer works.
Snitches get stitches is all I got to say.
D'oh! Yes, "lock box keys" not "boxes", fixed.
Actually, it's 1%, so 100 ships is more appropriate. However, people must understand that no matter how many boxes you open the odds of getting a ship does not change. You could open a million and still not get a ship. I got 2 Konnies from 73 boxes and a T6 TOS Connie from 13 Boxes, so there's luck in the air for me
Yeah, but 100 isn't a big enough sample size for the 1% to actually result in getting a ship.
Like flipping a coin, you have a 50% chance of heads, but if you flip it twice you could easily have it come up tails twice in a row. Only after you've flipped it 1000s of times does it come out to be 50/50
Not on PC. R%D and Doff packs are 1%, lock boxes are 0.4%. At least boxes were prior to the Infinity box, I haven't seen a Tribble test for that one.
Anyway, the point is that opening 10 or even 100 boxes is the wrong way to try to get a ship.
When I say fast, I mean fast like a pair of mating rabbits all hopped up on some good TRIBBLE...
Yes, RNGesus approves of this form of worship.
It doesn't actually increase your chances, but he approves.
The only true trick is to open an infinite amount until you win
Are you sure about this?
On Neverwinter some people have worked out that a lockbox has roughly 0.05% of dropping the best item in it which is a Legendary Mount. Still no-one truly knows except the people who set the drop chance.
I would not be surprised if it is like that for a lockbox on a game made by the same Company, on the Console at least... just a guess really.
See my post above. Tribble server tests on past lock boxes showed 1 in 250 for the lock box ships. For the R&D promo pack some kind soul opened 10,000 on tribble and the pack (NOT lock box) drop rate was 1 in 100.
As Joshua would say...
"The only winning move, is not to play..."
I Was A Trekkie Before It Was Cool ... Sept. 8th, 1966 ... Not To Mention Before Most Folks Around Here Were Born!
Forever a STO Veteran-Minion
Fortunately no sane person would spend that amount of money on this game. Right?
Until you open the box, though, all of the prizes are in there simultaneously. The only time there is one prize in the box is when you open the box and examine the results. You essentially negate all other outcomes by measuring what's in the box.
If there are posts here that do not appeal to you, or opinions you disagree with, the best way to deal with that is to resist the urge to add comments. Instead, engage with the content you like! Don't feed the trolls!
But here in sto, as noted, the best way to get a lockbox ship is to sell keys.
Yes, some RNGs are written badly
Yes, knowing the seed and the function you could tell exactly which box in a sequence will have a ship. But that is not a "lucky time" and you have no way to make sure you open box 1,207,924 instead of some other player. If they are using a proper RNG with a uniform distribution there is no clustering of wins, you need to open box 1,207,924 not 922 or 925.
If there is any part of STO that has been very thoroughly QA'd, you can bet it was lock box key use.
Expecting a ship within 100 keys with 1 to 100 odds really applies only to _very_ large samples (that are more like 'populations' than 'samples'.) Think 10,000+ keys or so to have the sample odds settle down enough to actually resemble the population odds.