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Forums > Home› Star Trek Online General Discussion

The Kelvin Lockbox odds thread

spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
edited July 2016 in Star Trek Online General Discussion
Well I decided to do a test to see what the odds are on the Lockboxs. The goal is to open 10,000 Kelvin boxes on Tribble. Obviously not crazy enough to do this for realzeeys. 10,000 is still a very small sample size, but probably the largest player experiment on the Kelvin lock boxes.

So I have done 3000 and done for the evening.

Grand prize ship = 8 on box #650 and #1104 and #1744 and # 1763, #2112, #2150, #2202, #2810

Lobi = 15,945 or 5.32 per box

(rest of stuff update later)
Post edited by spacebaronline on
«1

Comments

  • sp00kymulder#3221 sp00kymulder
    sp00kymulder#3221
         Member Posts: 79 Arc User
    edited July 2016
    Your chances are 100% if you do it the SMART way.

    The ship costs 300 mil.

    Keys sell on the exchange for 5.6 mil.

    300 / 5.6 = 54

    So for $54, you can buy 54 keys, sell them on the exchange, and have a 100% chance of buying the ship for an exact price.

    Anybody who opens boxes hoping to get a ship is crazy.
  • tempus64tempus64 Member Posts: 806 Arc User
    spacebaronline wrote: »
    Well I decided to do a test to see what the odds are on the Lockboxs. The goal is to open 10,000 boxes on Tribble. Obviously not crazy enough to do this for realzeeys.
    What lockbox? Needs to be all the same one as they can be different.

  • spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
    Updated to show Kelvin boxes. Too tired to do the second 500. Will do it tomorrow. If no ship by 1000 I will probably stop, as odds are low that you could open 1000 boxes without the grand prize. I might push it to 1500 and if still no ship I will be fairly certain they don't drop on Tribble.
  • magusofborgmagusofborg Member Posts: 186 Arc User
    Too much free time on your hands?
    Joined August 2009
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • gavinrunebladegavinruneblade Member Posts: 3,894 Arc User
    Missing the point. He is calculating odds not hoping to get anything.
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • leceterleceter Member Posts: 196 Arc User
    edited July 2016
    droprates for you an tribble does not say anything about droprates for everyone else on holodeck

    I can code you special droprates for special customers anytime, something like the nagus promo, but for lockboxes. Normal droprates for everyone else, no problem. Overall odds would stay the same, only that normal players get less ships.
    you wasted time

    No neutral instance is verifying correctness of dropcode after every patch and ensures it stays so inbetween patches.
    It's a shady gambling game from a company that lied over and over again.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Holy Grail of Gamification is Addiction | 5 Ways to Accomplisch | and the Psychology of Freemium
  • leceterleceter Member Posts: 196 Arc User
    leceter wrote: »
    droprates for you an tribble does not say anything about droprates for everyone else on holodeck

    I can code you special droprates for special customers anytime, something like the Nagus promo, but for lockboxes. Normal droprates for everyone else, no problem. Overall odds would stay the same, only that normal players get less ships.
    you wasted time

    No neutral instance is verifying correctness of dropcode after every patch and ensures it stays so in between patches.
    It's a shady gambling game from a company that lied over and over again.

    hey, Craptic didn't even publish the droprates, so there is nothing to verify!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Holy Grail of Gamification is Addiction | 5 Ways to Accomplisch | and the Psychology of Freemium
  • szimszim Member Posts: 2,503 Arc User
    The odds are 0.5% for "normal" lockbox ships and 0.25% for ultra rare lockbox ships.
  • staq16staq16 Member Posts: 1,181 Arc User
    leceter wrote: »
    droprates for you an tribble does not say anything about droprates for everyone else on holodeck

    I can code you special droprates for special customers anytime, something like the nagus promo, but for lockboxes. Normal droprates for everyone else, no problem. Overall odds would stay the same, only that normal players get less ships.
    you wasted time

    No neutral instance is verifying correctness of dropcode after every patch and ensures it stays so inbetween patches.
    It's a shady gambling game from a company that lied over and over again.

    Wow, tinfoil hat much? I'm certainly no "special customer" but I've had ships drop in game twice, from roughly 400 boxes. Not exactly scientific and the sample size is too small to be meaningful, but it does seem to indicate the system is working as advertised. Unfortunately, many players lack a basic understanding of probability.

    Or to flip it on its head - other than spite towards players, why would Cryptic manipulate drop rates? What would they stand to gain?
  • leceterleceter Member Posts: 196 Arc User
    szim wrote: »
    The odds are 0.5% for "normal" lockbox ships and 0.25% for ultra rare lockbox ships.

    is this your opinion or do you have something official to back up your claim?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Holy Grail of Gamification is Addiction | 5 Ways to Accomplisch | and the Psychology of Freemium
  • meimeitoomeimeitoo Member Posts: 12,594 Arc User
    szim wrote: »
    The odds are 0.5% for "normal" lockbox ships and 0.25% for ultra rare lockbox ships.

    Ere the opposite: the odds for ultra rare lockboxes (the kind from R&D packs and such) are better than for regular lockboxes, as an R&D pack simply costs a lot more than a key.
    3lsZz0w.jpg
  • szimszim Member Posts: 2,503 Arc User
    edited July 2016
    leceter wrote: »
    szim wrote: »
    The odds are 0.5% for "normal" lockbox ships and 0.25% for ultra rare lockbox ships.

    is this your opinion or do you have something official to back up your claim?

    It's an approximation based on loot tables created by players in the past.

    Here's one for the Undine lockbox (0.42% drop chance)
    arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline/#/discussion/1152735/undine-lockbox-loot-tables

    and the Hirogen lockbox (0.44% drop chance)
    arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline/#/discussion/1143637/hirogen-lockbox-loot-tables

    the Tal'Shiar lockbox (0.40% drop chance)
    arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline/#/discussion/1112540/tal-shiar-lockbox-loot-tables

    the Xindi lockbox (0.50% drop chance)
    arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline/#/discussion/1159992/xindi-lockbox-loot-tables


    Edit: And I found a promo pack survey at last (ultra rare ship, 0.107% drop chance)
    arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline/#/discussion/1201350/promo-pack-tribble-test-ten-thousand-10000-packs-opened
  • dukedom01dukedom01 Member Posts: 462 Arc User
    People like leceter are the reason I don't share my tables publicly any more.

    To the OP:
    One thing I noticed is that the spread on the kelvin is extreme. I had one instance of five ships in a batch of 400 and on the other hand up to 1,200 boxes without a ship. Given that a sample size of 10k sadly won't be large enough to make statistically sound conclusions about the odds.
    Ceterum censeo Otha supplendum in praemiis.
  • spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
    @dukedome01
    What would be a statistically significant sample size?
  • spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
    Updated at 1000 boxes
  • dukedom01dukedom01 Member Posts: 462 Arc User
    Depends on how the spread looks. Taking my example of five in 400 and none in 1200. If that were the outliers napkin math says you could get away with 20,000 samples, if an assumed outlier repeats itself you should double the sample size and suddenly we enter really really annoying amounts of boxes to log,
    Ceterum censeo Otha supplendum in praemiis.
  • spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
    Made it to 1500 box's - 2 ships box 650 and 1104 takes about 30 min to do 500 so will take breaks. Expect to have at least 2500 opened the today. 2 ships in 1500 boxes
  • knuhteb5knuhteb5 Member Posts: 1,831 Arc User
    OP, thank you for taking the time to test a sample of these so we can have a better idea of what the odds are.
    aGHGQIKr41KNi.gif
  • spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
    OK updated Lobi and ships. Rest of stuff later. After 2000 boxes there have been 4 ships or 1/500 chance. That is almost double previous boxes. Lobi at 5.24 per box is pretty consistent with past boxes. Still as another poster commented it is still a small sample size even at 2000 boxes. But think if it holds 1/500 odds

    500 keys @ $5.8 million ec a key or 2.9 billion ec per ship if you do it the gamble way.

    As many posters have mentioned. Much safer to sell 50 or so keys and get the ship.

    Will do another 1000 to 2000 boxes tonight. See if things change.
  • leceterleceter Member Posts: 196 Arc User
    leceter wrote: »
    hey, Craptic didn't even publish the droprates, so there is nothing to verify!
    szim wrote: »
    It's an approximation based on loot tables created by players in the past.

    Please read carefully, before you answer.

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Holy Grail of Gamification is Addiction | 5 Ways to Accomplisch | and the Psychology of Freemium
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • tempus64tempus64 Member Posts: 806 Arc User
    spacebaronline wrote: »
    OK updated Lobi and ships. Rest of stuff later. After 2000 boxes there have been 4 ships or 1/500 chance. That is almost double previous boxes. Lobi at 5.24 per box is pretty consistent with past boxes. Still as another poster commented it is still a small sample size even at 2000 boxes. But think if it holds 1/500 odds
    Making any sort of assumptions after only 2000 boxes is never wise.

    I ran 1,000,000 iterations of a 2,000 sample size 1 in 250 random number "win". Wanna know what the spread was? 0 -> 25 ships. Yes, 0 is very possible. So 2,000 isn't even close to a meaningful sample size. With 8 being the average, the spread is effectively -9 -> 25. So you'd probably see something like 30%-40% of people opening 2,000 boxes get 0 ships. This is why people like leceter put on their tinfoil hats and yell "conspiracy". Cryptic has absolutely no need to game the system when you understand these sorts of numbers lol.

    At 10,000 samples, you see a spread like 10 -> 72 ships. Someone on the low end getting say 20 ships will incorrectly assume the average is only 1 in 500. Someone getting something like 60 ships will come out with their "system" as to how at certain times of day they get better odds then anyone else and assume their system allows them to get 1 in 166 (that was tongue in cheek since I've seen some of the gamblers do exactly that lol).

  • nikeixnikeix Member Posts: 3,972 Arc User
    KT key run results (Klingon-7):
    1x D4x (7th key - end of Klingon run)
    1x KT Training Manuals
    2x KT modules
    1x KT Doff
    ---
    1x 150 fleet marks
    1x 100 fleet marks

    KT key run results (Romulan-88/454 lobi):
    1x T'laru (88th key - end of Romulan run)
    3x KT Starship traits (Romulan)
    5x Console Pack (romulan)
    1x Ground Trait: Brawler
    3x Space Trait: Expedient Repairs
    2x Space Trait: Neutral Zone
    8x KT Training Manuals
    8x KT modules
    8x KT Doff
    10x KT Weapons
    ---
    1x Dilithium Extra VIP
    2x Dilithium VIP
    3x 500 Reputation marks
    1x 150 fleet marks
    6x 100 fleet marks
    2x 35k fleet credits
    6x 25k fleet credits
    3x 1 Salvaged Technology
    16x R&D pack

    KT key run results (Federation-68/337 lobi):
    1x KT Constitution (68th key - end of Federation run)
    1x KT Starship traits (Federation)
    2x Console Pack (federation)
    3x Ground Trait: Brawler
    1x Space Trait: Expedient Repairs
    3x Space Trait: Neutral Zone
    8x KT Training Manuals
    2x KT modules
    7x KT Doff
    18x KT Weapons

    ---
    2x Dilithium Extra VIP
    4x 500 Reputation marks
    2x 150 fleet marks
    3x 100 fleet marks
    1x 25k fleet credits
    1x 2 Salvaged Technology
    2x 1 Salvaged Technology
    8x R&D pack

    So 3 grand prizes in just over 160 keys. Maybe they're more rare than the typical 1:200 ratio associated with lockbox grand prizes for years now... but I doubt it.
  • sylveriareldensylveriarelden Member Posts: 531 Arc User
    I got the KHCC in box 14 of 20.

    Dunno if it makes any difference, but I had also previously acquired the Intel Dreadnought with Lobi. Maybe it improves the chances of getting the KHCC from a lockbox? Or maybe not? (since all of this is really pure speculation anyway)
    It's not you- it's me. I just need my space.

    Being critical doesn't take skill. Being constructively critical- which is providing alternative solutions or suggestions to a demonstrated problem, however, does.
  • spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
    edited July 2016
    Well this is gambling. You will see this at it's finest in this experiment. It took 650 for the first one and another 450 for the second to drop. But in the last 500 lot, 3 ships dropped in under 100 boxes. So yes it will be very hard to give accurate odds. Right now it sits at 1/357. Lobi is pretty consistent around the 5.25 area.

    I believe that it will fall in the 1/250 area, but I am not wasting the time to do 1 million boxes. By 10k you can get a general idea of what to expect. You could also flip a fair coin 1 million times and get heads. Highly improbable of course.
    Post edited by spacebaronline on
  • UnknownUnknown
    This content has been removed.
  • spacebaronlinespacebaronline Member Posts: 1,103 Arc User
    As I said above I will strive for 10k. It takes a long time doing this. I suspect it will be in the 1/250 area. But without posted odds from cryptic, it's impossible to know. What is fairly accurate is the avg Lobi a person gets, hovering around the 5.25 area.
  • meimeitoomeimeitoo Member Posts: 12,594 Arc User
    spacebaronline wrote: »
    As I said above I will strive for 10k. It takes a long time doing this. I suspect it will be in the 1/250 area. But without posted odds from cryptic, it's impossible to know. What is fairly accurate is the avg Lobi a person gets, hovering around the 5.25 area.

    For a moment there I thought you were striving for 10k DPS. :) But you're talking lockboxes to open, LOL. Why, kudos on a good experiment!
    3lsZz0w.jpg
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