What does this even prove? I took my $5 monthly zen, got 2 keys, and won the current box lotto last month. Traded that for the paradox and pocketed 100M. Neither one is representative of reality ... you don't always lose (what the video implies) and you don't often win (I got lucky). The truth is somewhere between those extremes.
They are fun in moderation, if you have excess EC or dil/zen to get a key now and again. Its not economical, but its fun, and like the lottery, if you don't play you can't win.
You might notice that I didnt rush out to spend the 100M on keys after that ... knowing when to stop is a good thing.
What does this even prove? I took my $5 monthly zen, got 2 keys, and won the current box lotto last month. Traded that for the paradox and pocketed 100M. Neither one is representative of reality ... you don't always lose (what the video implies) and you don't often win (I got lucky). The truth is somewhere between those extremes.
LOL, no. While it *IS* true that "you don't always lose and you don't always win", the actual chances are much *CLOSER* to the "always lose" side. So the "truth" is on one EXTREME end of the spectrum, not really "between" the two.
And just what is your point plaz ?
You don't like to know odds ? Not sure what you're getting at...
Lockbox average is just a comparison tool. Not sure what your grudge against it is.
Some like to know odds before making a bet. Its pretty common really. In everything from sports//horse racing to multi million dollar lotteries .
No, what is your point exactly? FIrst you feel the need to explain me something I already know and in part, already said and now you're making stuff up? I like to know the odds, statistics are a great thing, but just because I believe that all of this becomes meaningless, once you roll the dice, doesn't mean that I have a grudge about it...
Or... Every dollar you don't spend you 'win' a dollar!
I've always said- "Yeah, well you can't lose if you don't play, either."
It's not you- it's me. I just need my space.
Being critical doesn't take skill. Being constructively critical- which is providing alternative solutions or suggestions to a demonstrated problem, however, does.
@plaztikman64 First of all bro, I never explained anything to You. I simply stated the odds for lockboxes and promos, then you jumped in and said "the numbers are irrelevant."
I say "No the number are a not irrelevant and serve as a comparison tool"
Then you say, "I like to know the odds, stats are great"
I dunno man. You not making much sense. LoL
Why do you think ships on the exchange sell at certain price points ? Because ship sellers hedge their bet against the odds. And the mean average of lockboxes per ships is needed to price the item accordingly. Amongst several other factors.
Meh, anyway this is dumb. I think you're just sore I pissed on your Endothermic pvp cheese thread and now you're trying to pick some virtual fight with me. Well I've got no time for that.
OP, for a registration year of 2013, I'm surprised you didn't know of how low the odds of winning are. It's one thing for some newbie player coming on these boards and complaining that he didn't win anything out of gambling, but it's another when the same thing is done by someone that's been around a long time with the game. If a veteran player wasn't burned by the gambling him/herself, they surely would have seen numerous people say in game how they didn't get what they desired despite spending hundreds and hundreds of $$$. This was most especially true right when a new Lockbox comes out. Always happened like clockwork.
The lock boxes aren't really my thing, the only ones I've ever opened were the Tholian and Terran, I had 3 keys from an event awhile back and used them when the Tholian lock boxes were still a thing and I got an Orb Weaver on my 3rd box. Haven't opened anymore since.
I only did the Terran boxes so that I could get both MU outfits, although I also got 2 meshweavers as well. I'm never going to spend that kinda money as others have on a game that imo isn't going well. For the most part, the ships from those lock boxes are just an after thought for me, idc if I get them or not. I'll only open some boxes if the lobi store has something I like.
I am myself a regular lock-box opener, but doing it with the hope of getting the grand prize is not the way to go. I mostly open lockboxes for Lobi and the special weapon types. All for the best if i get the grand prize ship (and in fact it happened to me on two occasions, first with the Elachi lockbox and second with the Herald lockbox), but i would not place any bets on this, let alone try and study statistics...
Yup, if you're looking for modest pay outs the process is a lot less painful. I bought the delta packs because it was something I could use + pretty good zen:lobi ratio. I'm not gonna complain I got shorted 10 lobi when the Annorax dropped, but there was no pack I opened that I found disappointing. I've almost got enough crystals for my next lobi store console .
I spend money in this game, but have absolutely zero desire to spin that wheel. I would much prefer to buy Zen and know that my purchase is absolutely going to get me a ship. Lockbox ships are just not something I'm willing to enter into. Again, I do spend money in STO..and, admittedly...probably too much, but I'm not going down that road.
When it comes to the lock boxes, there is no reason to gamble when you can outright BUY what you want on the exchange for EC. Sure, it might cost a lot. But remember, you can take that zen you bought with your real money and just convert that to EC by buying something you can actually sell on the exchange.
I open lock boxes because I want lobi. I choose which lock boxes to open because something spectacular might happen along the way (not that it has for me). I'm pretty happy with the gene sequencers I've gotten, but most of the rewards are pretty marginal.
Only 100? That really proves nothing. There are people who posted here that opened 1-2k and get nothing. But hey, thanks for supporting Cryptic/PWE with your lack of understanding of gambling/statistics!
How much was that pack, even when it was on sale? 220 zen a pop?
If every zen is worth 1 US cent, that's...
$2,200 - $4,400
No wonder we keep getting all the good TRIBBLE in lottery packs. GG whales. Cryptic is laughing at you all the way to the bank.
Why am I always surprised that people don't understand the odds of getting a 'Premium' ship. In plain english, the odds of getting it NEVER change no matter how many packs you purchase. They neither increase nor decrease. You could open millions and still not get one, even if the odds were 50% of getting one! It's down to plain old RNG luck! On that note, I had to laugh when I got a Temp Sci Vessel and I got a PM off a guy who wanted and claimed there was a 'trick' to getting more and he'd tell me it if I sold it to him...yeah, jog on buster! There's no secret trick, just luck, end of.
"You don't want to patrol!? You don't want to escort!? You don't want to defend the Federation's Starbases!? Then why are you flying my Starships!? If you were a Klingon you'd be killed on the spot, but lucky for you.....you WERE in Starfleet. Let's see how New Zealand Penal Colony suits you." Adm A. Necheyev.
Why am I always surprised that people don't understand the odds of getting a 'Premium' ship. In plain english, the odds of getting it NEVER change no matter how many packs you purchase. They neither increase nor decrease. You could open millions and still not get one, even if the odds were 50% of getting one! It's down to plain old RNG luck! On that note, I had to laugh when I got a Temp Sci Vessel and I got a PM off a guy who wanted and claimed there was a 'trick' to getting more and he'd tell me it if I sold it to him...yeah, jog on buster! There's no secret trick, just luck, end of.
Yes but the odds of opening millions of 50:50 lockboxes and getting nothing is low.
OP, for a registration year of 2013, I'm surprised you didn't know of how low the odds of winning are.
Year means nothing. People don't have to play sto everyday for the rest of their lives. STO isn't a major factor in someone's life.
Now you take that back
"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects." — Lazarus Long --->Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
Deok would be correct there... my bad folks, I forgot in my year's hiatus that $270 worth of boxes was child's play, and you're expected to go broke before you get something. All's good
The boss being a gigantic Winter Epohh Researcher. As you lay waste to the Epohh Horde, she can occasionally cry out things like, "Didn't you want an Epohh friend?"
Today I took 1 chance knowing fully that my chances of winning an Annorax were as good as my chances of me winning $40 on a can of Coke (Happened to me back in the 80s). No ship, and I'm fine with it.
Gamblers fallacy ftw, Even if the odds are 1:100 (which is probably about right for promo boxes as Cryptic themselves have said they have a higher chance to account for the price difference), each box gives you a 1% chance. You could open 25,000 boxes and get 250 ships, 2500 ships, or potentially none. Its all in the probability as to why a lot of people get burned, others fall in about right, and some get super lucky. I got an Annorax on the first time around after just FOUR. This time around I've opened more (maybe 15 whatever I got off the exchange) and got smoked. Or for the same reasons, I've yet to get anything good from the Terran lockbox especially after I'd say a good 150 or so.
For lockbox ships and the like I always sell sell keys or earn ec in other ways (they hsually float 100-200 mil which is very easily attainable) and just buy the thing, but in the case of the Annorax and Sheshar, I can see it for sure is different because of the 700M+ price tags.
Well enough may be dropping because the first time ever I saw some on the Exchange. Six at once all 715 million EC to 750 million EC.
'But to be logical is not to be right', and 'nothing' on God's earth could ever 'make it' right!'
Judge Dan Haywood
'As l speak now, the words are forming in my head.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Only 100? That really proves nothing. There are people who posted here that opened 1-2k and get nothing. But hey, thanks for supporting Cryptic/PWE with your lack of understanding of gambling/statistics!
100 is generally a solid average to compare with, but i'm sorry if I didn't have the time to copy or buy 2k for your enjoyment, but by all means do so yourself, please, spend near $3k to not get a ship o_O ( at least according to you)
I guess the issue with what I said is that I can't get money out of the game. I generate EC and Dil -> zen but I can never get cryptic to send me, say, 20 bucks. So the gambling isnt with real money because these assets can never be turned into real money. There isnt anything I really need, and I have plenty of play money. Gambling with a little of it now and then has done well for me. If you are dumping hundreds of real dollars into boxes, yea that is a problem. A single char can grind out 1 key a week in dil ... if you want to play now and then, as I do, that is a pittance really.
Comments
They are fun in moderation, if you have excess EC or dil/zen to get a key now and again. Its not economical, but its fun, and like the lottery, if you don't play you can't win.
You might notice that I didnt rush out to spend the 100M on keys after that ... knowing when to stop is a good thing.
LOL, no. While it *IS* true that "you don't always lose and you don't always win", the actual chances are much *CLOSER* to the "always lose" side. So the "truth" is on one EXTREME end of the spectrum, not really "between" the two.
The-Grand-Nagus
Join Date: Sep 2008
Or... Every dollar you don't spend you 'win' a dollar!
No, what is your point exactly? FIrst you feel the need to explain me something I already know and in part, already said and now you're making stuff up? I like to know the odds, statistics are a great thing, but just because I believe that all of this becomes meaningless, once you roll the dice, doesn't mean that I have a grudge about it...
I've always said- "Yeah, well you can't lose if you don't play, either."
Being critical doesn't take skill. Being constructively critical- which is providing alternative solutions or suggestions to a demonstrated problem, however, does.
First of all bro, I never explained anything to You. I simply stated the odds for lockboxes and promos, then you jumped in and said "the numbers are irrelevant."
I say "No the number are a not irrelevant and serve as a comparison tool"
Then you say, "I like to know the odds, stats are great"
I dunno man. You not making much sense. LoL
Why do you think ships on the exchange sell at certain price points ?
Because ship sellers hedge their bet against the odds. And the mean average of lockboxes per ships is needed to price the item accordingly. Amongst several other factors.
Meh, anyway this is dumb.
I think you're just sore I pissed on your Endothermic pvp cheese thread and now you're trying to pick some virtual fight with me. Well I've got no time for that.
I only did the Terran boxes so that I could get both MU outfits, although I also got 2 meshweavers as well. I'm never going to spend that kinda money as others have on a game that imo isn't going well. For the most part, the ships from those lock boxes are just an after thought for me, idc if I get them or not. I'll only open some boxes if the lobi store has something I like.
The-Grand-Nagus
Join Date: Sep 2008
If every zen is worth 1 US cent, that's...
$2,200 - $4,400
No wonder we keep getting all the good TRIBBLE in lottery packs. GG whales. Cryptic is laughing at you all the way to the bank.
Yes but the odds of opening millions of 50:50 lockboxes and getting nothing is low.
MUCH Less than that. Like 0.5 to 1%
Why people still open lockboxes is beyond comprehension.
http://massivelyop.com/2015/08/18/the-daily-grind-should-mmo-studios-disclose-the-odds-of-winning-lockbox-prizes/
Now you take that back
(Old topics put me to sleep)
For lockbox ships and the like I always sell sell keys or earn ec in other ways (they hsually float 100-200 mil which is very easily attainable) and just buy the thing, but in the case of the Annorax and Sheshar, I can see it for sure is different because of the 700M+ price tags.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Its all just random chance. Don't take the risk
original join date 2010
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