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Forums > Home› Star Trek Online General Discussion

Promo Pack Tribble Test! Ten Thousand (10000) Packs Opened!

tacticalrooktacticalrook Member Posts: 810 Arc User
in Star Trek Online General Discussion
10000 packs were assembled, and all of them opened.

The results:

10000 packs opened
107 dreadnoughts pulled.

Odds based on this test, 107/10000.

Documentation below:

To ensure all ships remained in the inventory, [Delta Alliance Duty Officer Pack] were moved to the bank and the following were discarded during the opening process:
  • All lobi
  • 990 [Delta Alliance Duty Officer Pack] (10 stacks)
caUPoBt.jpg

sdNa8ee.jpg

0k3ikrw.jpg

Logging set with: 
/chatlog 1


Log parsed with: 
$ grep -E 'RewardPackOpened@|ItemReceived@|ItemLost@' Chat.Log > krenim_promo_data.txt

Parsed log:
Parsed Log Link
/channel_join grind
«1

Comments

  • storulesstorules Member Posts: 3,253 Arc User
    edited August 2015
    WOW...Thanks for saving me to waste that much cash in buying packs. Its like at most 1% chance you would find a ship. Is this even rarer than the Jem Strike ship? I understand why most people who are selling this are way over 500MIL asking price.normal-50.gif​​
    tumblr_ncbngkt24X1ry46hlo1_400.gif
  • lianthelialianthelia Member Posts: 7,825 Arc User
    storules wrote: »
    WOW...Thanks for saving me to waste that much cash in buying packs. Its like at most 1% chance you would find a ship. Is this even rarer than the Jem Strike ship? I understand why most people who are selling this are way over 500MIL asking price.normal-50.gif​​

    I still don't think it's worth it...it's a shiny new ship...but people are fooled by the word *Dreadnought* still a Science ship and still doesn't have 4/4 so once people get over the *Hey look at me I have the new shiny* I don't think we will see a ton of them.

    We don't see many of the other doff/crafting pack ships after their events.
  • woodwhitywoodwhity Member Posts: 2,636 Arc User
    lianthelia wrote: »
    I still don't think it's worth it...it's a shiny new ship...but people are fooled by the word *Dreadnought* still a Science ship and still doesn't have 4/4 so once people get over the *Hey look at me I have the new shiny* I don't think we will see a ton of them.

    Most powerful Sciship atm, though ;)​​
  • markhawkmanmarkhawkman Member Posts: 35,231 Arc User
    storules wrote: »
    WOW...Thanks for saving me to waste that much cash in buying packs. Its like at most 1% chance you would find a ship. Is this even rarer than the Jem Strike ship? I understand why most people who are selling this are way over 500MIL asking price.normal-50.gif​​
    Nah 1 in 100 is typical actually.
    -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
    My character Tsin'xing
    Costume_marhawkman_Tsin%27xing_CC_Comic_Page_Blue_488916968.jpg
  • thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 5,165 Arc User
    This is extremely impressive work.
    The-Grand-Nagus
    Join Date: Sep 2008

    og9Zoh0.jpg
  • azniadeetazniadeet Member Posts: 1,871 Arc User
    edited August 2015
    Adding this result (107/10000), to the other similar thread's result (16/2000), we get 123/12000, or 1.0% (rounded to the tenth).

    I would assume that the chance is exactly 1%, being that developers like round numbers.

    This means that if you open 100 packs, your chance of winning ships is as such:
    0 ships: 36.6%
    1 ship: 37.0%
    2 ships: 18.5%
    3 ships: 6.1%
    4 ships: 1.5%
    5+ ships: 0.3%

    And to clarify, the cumulative chance of winning at least X ships out of 100 packs.
    At least 1: 63.4%
    At least 2: 26.4%
    At least 3: 7.9%
    At least 4: 1.8%
  • tacticalrooktacticalrook Member Posts: 810 Arc User
    There were apparently only 6 ship pull notifications from this run. Do they have some sort of cooldown?
    /channel_join grind
  • mysharon42mysharon42 Member Posts: 1 Arc User
    That is nuts. Cheers.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,511 Arc User
    Thanks to both of you for doing this. Knowing it's almost certainly a 1% drop rate helps me decide whether I'll bother to open any packs (despite the odds) or spend $100+ on keys to sell to get the sure thing of an EC purchase.
  • bubblegirl2015bubblegirl2015 Member Posts: 830 Arc User
    Is this ship really worth it? or a hyped sales pitch. It looks like the Sheshar is far better equipped than this one (5 fore/3 aft weapons) as opposed to 4/3 of the Dread? Why is this more expensive that the Sheshar or even the Jem Strike ship? normal-28.gif​​
    Wiki editor http://sto.gamepedia.com
    Original STO beta tester.
  • lsegnlsegn Member Posts: 594 Arc User
    bubblegirl2015 wrote: »
    Is this ship really worth it? or a hyped sales pitch. It looks like the Sheshar is far better equipped than this one (5 fore/3 aft weapons) as opposed to 4/3 of the Dread? Why is this more expensive that the Sheshar or even the Jem Strike ship? normal-28.gif​​

    Because it's an amazing science ship.
  • storulesstorules Member Posts: 3,253 Arc User
    lsegn wrote: »
    bubblegirl2015 wrote: »
    Is this ship really worth it? or a hyped sales pitch. It looks like the Sheshar is far better equipped than this one (5 fore/3 aft weapons) as opposed to 4/3 of the Dread? Why is this more expensive that the Sheshar or even the Jem Strike ship? normal-28.gif

    Because it's an amazing science ship.


    It also has an AMAZING spiked up price tag attached to it normal-50.gif    ​​
    tumblr_ncbngkt24X1ry46hlo1_400.gif
  • cem3212cem3212 Member Posts: 138 Arc User
    WOW, simply WOW. Amazing feat for this person & others to go through all that work to be able to offer us a glimpse of the actual odds. Odds that never seem to be officially announced. PWE's/Cryptic's online gambling should be shut-down anyways even if they are getting away with it per a loophole guaranteeing a certain prize. If there was a survey done everyone knows the priority reason people play those Lockboxes. Unfortunately it has become a precedent activity in online gaming now.
  • hyefatherhyefather Member Posts: 1,286 Arc User
    I feel so lucky, I bought 12 packs and won 1 on the 9th pack I opened. I just didn't realise how lucky. Wait a second, am I under some insidious spell? I just spent 20 dollors on pixels and I'm happy about it. I don't know what to think now. Help !!!!
  • tempus64tempus64 Member Posts: 806 Arc User
    Thanks for putting all the effort into this, greatly appreciated.
  • thegrandnagus1thegrandnagus1 Member Posts: 5,165 Arc User
    Hey look, your famous:

    http://massivelyop.com/2015/08/18/the-daily-grind-should-mmo-studios-disclose-the-odds-of-winning-lockbox-prizes/
    The-Grand-Nagus
    Join Date: Sep 2008

    og9Zoh0.jpg
  • tempus64tempus64 Member Posts: 806 Arc User
    thegrandnagus1 wrote: »
    Hey look, your famous:

    http://massivelyop.com/2015/08/18/the-daily-grind-should-mmo-studios-disclose-the-odds-of-winning-lockbox-prizes/
    lol, that's funny. It's a shame it's not accurate though as it will lead to confusion. i.e. This was a promo pack, not a lockbox. Old lockboxes were apparently around 1/250 (0.4%) to get a ship and the new one is supposed to be around 1/200 (0.5%). The promo pack is a bit more than 2x the cost of opening a lockbox but with the 1% drop rate.
  • jackal1701apwjackal1701apw Member Posts: 669 Arc User
    My personal view is that the odds of pulling an annorax is 1/113.6 or 0.88%.

    This is based on the odds of a lockbox pull (in the old lockbox system) of 1/250 with a Zen price per key of 125z, and the fact that the Devs stated that the odds of a promo win was set to maintain the 'chance of win/value' ratio. Given a promo box costs 275z or 2.2x more expensive than a key this gives the figure I have stated.

    All the statistical testing I have seen on the subject support this theory to a high level of confidence.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    ...#LLAP...
  • jackal1701apwjackal1701apw Member Posts: 669 Arc User
    Granted if the Devs re-evaluated the promo win rates to be reflective of the new lockbox mechanics (with a 1/200 win rate) then the chances would be 1/90.9 or 1.10%, but I find it unlikely that they did that :)
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    ...#LLAP...
  • angrytargangrytarg Member Posts: 11,001 Arc User
    As stated elsewhere, Cryptic/PWE should reveal the odds in those things. After all we aren't talking about drop rates of certain loot (as if loot was worth something in STO) but a prize for cash - the dil exchange can't be the way to weasel out of that yet again. If it would be the official resoning there's not much more ways to tell us they think we're stupid.​​
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    ^ Memory Alpha.org is not canon. It's a open wiki with arbitrary rules. Only what can be cited from an episode is. ^
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  • aoax10aoax10 Member Posts: 271 Arc User
    repetitiveepic wrote: »
    They're under no obligation to reveal any of their proprietary code.

    Video game gambling isn't covered by any kind of law, since gambling laws only cover money and property, and you can't win either money or property in most video games.

    It should though. Playing poker online (gambling) is only allowed in certain states. Gambling is gambling and people deserve to know what the odds they are playing at.
  • lsegnlsegn Member Posts: 594 Arc User
    aoax10 wrote: »
    repetitiveepic wrote: »
    They're under no obligation to reveal any of their proprietary code.

    Video game gambling isn't covered by any kind of law, since gambling laws only cover money and property, and you can't win either money or property in most video games.

    It should though. Playing poker online (gambling) is only allowed in certain states. Gambling is gambling and people deserve to know what the odds they are playing at.

    You always get something and therefore it doesn't qualify as gambling.
  • angrytargangrytarg Member Posts: 11,001 Arc User
    edited August 2015
    repetitiveepic wrote: »
    They're under no obligation to reveal any of their proprietary code.

    Video game gambling isn't covered by any kind of law, since gambling laws only cover money and property, and you can't win either money or property in most video games.

    Obligation or not, their decision still reflects on them. We know they know, they know we know. They can either continue to treat us like idiots and/or hide behind juristic loopholes or be honest about it.​​
    lFC4bt2.gif
    ^ Memory Alpha.org is not canon. It's a open wiki with arbitrary rules. Only what can be cited from an episode is. ^
    "No. Men do not roar. Women roar. Then they hurl heavy objects... and claw at you." -Worf, son of Mogh
    "A filthy, mangy beast, but in its bony breast beat the heart of a warrior" - "faithful" (...) "but ever-ready to follow the call of the wild." - Martok, about a Targ
    "That pig smelled horrid. A sweet-sour, extremely pungent odor. I showered and showered, and it took me a week to get rid of it!" - Robert Justman, appreciating Emmy-Lou
    #TASforSTO
    Get the Forums Enhancement Extension!
  • bernatkbernatk Member Posts: 1,089 Bug Hunter
    Hmm .... 1% is quite ok. I thought it was bugged. Seems not lol...
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