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And we have our next email chain letter doomsday panic for October 19, 2014
hevach
Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/27/new-data-concerning-the-close-approach-of-comet-c2013-a1-to-mars/
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2013/02271436-comet-to-whiz-past-mars.html
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013A1;cad=1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0#cad
The most recent measurements of comet C/2013A1's orbit show it will pass roughly 37,000 km from the surface of Mars next year. Uncertainty of the orbit still leaves a small chance of a direct impact.
That's a little bit farther out than asteroid 2012DA14 passed from Earth, but this comet is much larger. But, A1s coma should be ~100,000 km in diameter by the time it reaches Mars's orbit.
Even if the nucleus does not impact, Mars will still be passing through the coma and be subjected to some degree of bombardment, including objects large enough to pass through the Martian atmosphere and pose a danger to probes in orbit and on the surface - we don't know how dense the meteor rain from a coma passage like this would be.
If the probes survive, it's hoped they'll be able to get images of the comet as it passes, since it'll dominate the sky for several days and completely fill it at closest approach.
In the event of an actual direct impact, probes on the surface will almost certainly be lost. The current size estimate range is 15-50km. At 15 km it'd already be one of the largest comets to pass through the inner solar system, and at 50 km it'd be second only to Hale-Bopp.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2013/02271436-comet-to-whiz-past-mars.html
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013A1;cad=1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0#cad
The most recent measurements of comet C/2013A1's orbit show it will pass roughly 37,000 km from the surface of Mars next year. Uncertainty of the orbit still leaves a small chance of a direct impact.
That's a little bit farther out than asteroid 2012DA14 passed from Earth, but this comet is much larger. But, A1s coma should be ~100,000 km in diameter by the time it reaches Mars's orbit.
Even if the nucleus does not impact, Mars will still be passing through the coma and be subjected to some degree of bombardment, including objects large enough to pass through the Martian atmosphere and pose a danger to probes in orbit and on the surface - we don't know how dense the meteor rain from a coma passage like this would be.
If the probes survive, it's hoped they'll be able to get images of the comet as it passes, since it'll dominate the sky for several days and completely fill it at closest approach.
In the event of an actual direct impact, probes on the surface will almost certainly be lost. The current size estimate range is 15-50km. At 15 km it'd already be one of the largest comets to pass through the inner solar system, and at 50 km it'd be second only to Hale-Bopp.
Post edited by hevach on
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its flying near mars and nowhere near us right?
For example, News.com.au was one of the first outlets to post this story, and it showed Earth as the target for two weeks before they corrected it. From there it of course entered the blog rotation from which misinformation is impossible to remove, supposedly it's currently got the most traction in the Russian parts of the internet, which have always been one of the breeding grounds for stuff like this but a bit worse than usual in the wake of the Chelyabinsk impact.
How many times is the world supposed to end this year anyway?
already? that thing that happened almost 19 years ago! i cant remember what happened last week half the time.
yes, i remember some mild panic and wild stories.
i did not realise there were false stories. that does change things a little.
This year's doomsday schedule is comet C/2012 S1 ISON, which should be spectacular in November/December if it survives sungrazing first. It made the conspiracy circuit last year since people saw ISON as an abbreviation or anagram for things concerning Nibiru or the Second Comming.
Then there's a generic "all year" prediction from somebody who reevaluated Newton's 2060 prediction and believes he was wrong and it's 2013.
Actually, don't watch that ...
It's hard to calculate just where it'd hit Mars. A "near miss" could cause the comet to temporarily orbit Mars before crashing to the ground. Good luck predicting where'd it'd impact after that.
My character Tsin'xing
If it's towards the upper range of size, though, the rovers are lost, period, no matter where they are. There's even concern that some of the orbiting probes will be in danger, since some of them are as low as 300-400 km. A 50 km impactor would create a crater larger than most known on any body in the inner solar system. The impact on Mars would be unbelievable.
Uh, no, because the passing comet wiil be flying at speeds well in excess of the escape velocity for Mars' gravity well. Its trajectory will be deflected, but there's no chance of a comet ever getting pulled into orbit of any of the inner planets.
...Oh, baby, you know, I've really got to leave you / Oh, I can hear it callin 'me / I said don't you hear it callin' me the way it used to do?...
- Anne Bredon
It's only slightly more believable than Niburu.
Exactly. Funny, NASA is not even the least bit worried about this. I was there yesterday, discussion is on a new rock we found that may well have elements of life in it. It will be some time before they get all of the information, but it looks very promising! We do know that Mars can support plant life, with a little bit of nutrients added, due to it's high CO2 count. This means colonization of Mars would be easier, but we still have to find an actual water supply, which may well be only beneath the surface.
Now that's something to be excited about.
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else. -Einstein
My character Tsin'xing
@lukeminherexx one of the links I posted, their NASA contact was somewhat concerned. They know craters on Mars as small as a few centimeters are possible, meaning stuff the size of cometary debris can hit the ground with sufficient force to damage the rovers, and we have no idea how dense the meteor rain from an event like this would be. But by the time it happens, everything on or around Mars will be past their nominal lifespans and only one is likely to be working at all.
Err.... I mean... Aw
Just a thought...
We'll Just send Bruce Willis up there and he will sort it out.
God I love that movie; made me cry a little bit.
Even if it's 50 km across, most of its mass isn't water ice, it's other gasses and rock. The water added would be beyond trivial, at least on a planetary scale (it'd provide a colony with drinking water basically forever if it were captured somehow, but once dispersed over and off of a planet it's spread pretty thin).
With the nuclear winter and geological upheaval of an impact that large the planet might lose more water than it gains by underground deposits being exposed to air, evaporating, and being lost into space.
They made me stop playing on earth after that tsunami. Totaly not my fault btw, I left the game on and some one ordered an earthquake.
Not everything you see on the internet is true - Abraham Lincoln
Occidere populo et effercio confractus
*static*
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Support the "Armored Unicorn" vehicle initiative today!
Thanks for Harajuku. Now let's get a real "Magical Girl" costume!
Happens when you produce a comet from nowhere.
Not everything you see on the internet is true - Abraham Lincoln
Occidere populo et effercio confractus
My character Tsin'xing
Ah, well, this was not discussed, but I can see what you mean. I wonder what the odds really would be that the rovers would/could be hit? I know Mars has a weaker atmosphere, therefor things that would completely break up in our atmosphere would not break up in it's atmosphere. However, even if there is a chance, it would surely be a small chance. Not disputing, just wondering.
Also, most of the man sent things we have on Mars are past their expected life span, however, it would still be a shame to lose anymore of them.
You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else. -Einstein
"The planet Mars exploded 6 million years after we evolved here. The explosion shifted the orbit of Sol III, and everything was lain waste..." ?? :eek::D;)
PWE ARC Drone says: "Your STO forum community as you have known it is ended...Display names are irrelevant...Any further sense of community is irrelevant...Resistance is futile...You will be assimilated..."
I'm sure he's alright. The ghosts only feed when the lights go blue. Comet Cocktail, anyone?
...Oh, baby, you know, I've really got to leave you / Oh, I can hear it callin 'me / I said don't you hear it callin' me the way it used to do?...
- Anne Bredon
Well, if it hits anywhere it could do that, but it won't last regardless. I mean, the planet is already prone to global sandstorms which do warm the surface somewhat, this won't be much better - it'll be over in a few years at most, probably months...
The data collected, if it's good news, could reignite the imagination, but it won't jump start real plans. And still, an impact is unlikely. Not impossible, but right now it's single digit percents.
We don't know the odds. The closest thing we have to compare to is Earth passing through Haley's tail in 1910. A much smaller comet, much farther away, and poorly observed to boot. Stardust's sample collector collected one particle large enough to impact Mars, and ten others that would make it to the ground but lose all of their original speed and drift down on the wind. None of them enough to hurt Curiosity, though they could break the solar panels on a solar powered rover if one of them's still working by then.
Honestly, while losing a successful rover would be a shame, it's not like we'd be losing them for nothing. Our probes are in a position to get information on the passage as it happens - if things line up just right we might even get some of the most spectacular pictures ever, since the comet will literally fill the sky at its closest approach. Curisoity will have had a long career by then - maybe not long enough, but losing it to gain data on something that might not happen again for centuries is still a hell of an opportunity. It's too fast and caught to late to get a direct probe to it, but our Mars assets are still closer than we've ever gotten to study such a large comet.