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Forums > Home› Ten Forward

And we have our next email chain letter doomsday panic for October 19, 2014

hevachhevach Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
edited March 2013 in Ten Forward
http://spaceobs.org/en/2013/02/27/new-data-concerning-the-close-approach-of-comet-c2013-a1-to-mars/
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2013/02271436-comet-to-whiz-past-mars.html
http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2013A1;cad=1;orb=1;cov=0;log=0#cad

The most recent measurements of comet C/2013A1's orbit show it will pass roughly 37,000 km from the surface of Mars next year. Uncertainty of the orbit still leaves a small chance of a direct impact.

That's a little bit farther out than asteroid 2012DA14 passed from Earth, but this comet is much larger. But, A1s coma should be ~100,000 km in diameter by the time it reaches Mars's orbit.

Even if the nucleus does not impact, Mars will still be passing through the coma and be subjected to some degree of bombardment, including objects large enough to pass through the Martian atmosphere and pose a danger to probes in orbit and on the surface - we don't know how dense the meteor rain from a coma passage like this would be.

If the probes survive, it's hoped they'll be able to get images of the comet as it passes, since it'll dominate the sky for several days and completely fill it at closest approach.

In the event of an actual direct impact, probes on the surface will almost certainly be lost. The current size estimate range is 15-50km. At 15 km it'd already be one of the largest comets to pass through the inner solar system, and at 50 km it'd be second only to Hale-Bopp.
Post edited by hevach on

Comments

  • captainrevo1captainrevo1 Member Posts: 3,948 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    I dont get it. Why is it a doomsday panic for us?

    its flying near mars and nowhere near us right?
  • hevachhevach Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    Forget the Shoemaker-Levy 9 panic already?

    For example, News.com.au was one of the first outlets to post this story, and it showed Earth as the target for two weeks before they corrected it. From there it of course entered the blog rotation from which misinformation is impossible to remove, supposedly it's currently got the most traction in the Russian parts of the internet, which have always been one of the breeding grounds for stuff like this but a bit worse than usual in the wake of the Chelyabinsk impact.
  • maxvitormaxvitor Member Posts: 2,213 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    Tis the end of the world, that calls for a drink!!
    How many times is the world supposed to end this year anyway?
    If something is not broken, don't fix it, if it is broken, don't leave it broken.
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  • captainrevo1captainrevo1 Member Posts: 3,948 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    hevach wrote: »
    Forget the Shoemaker-Levy 9 panic already?

    already? that thing that happened almost 19 years ago! i cant remember what happened last week half the time.

    yes, i remember some mild panic and wild stories.

    i did not realise there were false stories. that does change things a little.
  • hevachhevach Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    maxvitor wrote: »
    Tis the end of the world, that calls for a drink!!
    How many times is the world supposed to end this year anyway?

    This year's doomsday schedule is comet C/2012 S1 ISON, which should be spectacular in November/December if it survives sungrazing first. It made the conspiracy circuit last year since people saw ISON as an abbreviation or anagram for things concerning Nibiru or the Second Comming.

    Then there's a generic "all year" prediction from somebody who reevaluated Newton's 2060 prediction and believes he was wrong and it's 2013.
  • cmdrscarletcmdrscarlet Member Posts: 5,137 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    Are people watching "Knowing" all of a sudden?

    Actually, don't watch that ...
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  • markhawkmanmarkhawkman Member Posts: 35,236 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    IF it hits Mars, it might hit far enough from the probes that they won't be destroyed.

    It's hard to calculate just where it'd hit Mars. A "near miss" could cause the comet to temporarily orbit Mars before crashing to the ground. Good luck predicting where'd it'd impact after that. :p
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  • hevachhevach Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    If it's at the lowest range of its size, chances are already slim that any of the probes would survive, no matter where the impact is - that's 1.5-2x the size of the Chicxulub impactor on smaller planet with a thin atmosphere, it will be a global event.

    If it's towards the upper range of size, though, the rovers are lost, period, no matter where they are. There's even concern that some of the orbiting probes will be in danger, since some of them are as low as 300-400 km. A 50 km impactor would create a crater larger than most known on any body in the inner solar system. The impact on Mars would be unbelievable.
  • captnurntumbercaptnurntumber Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    When I first glanced at the OP I thought this.
  • sander233sander233 Member Posts: 3,992 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    markhawkman wrote: »
    A "near miss" could cause the comet to temporarily orbit Mars before crashing to the ground.

    Uh, no, because the passing comet wiil be flying at speeds well in excess of the escape velocity for Mars' gravity well. Its trajectory will be deflected, but there's no chance of a comet ever getting pulled into orbit of any of the inner planets.
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  • jonsillsjonsills Member Posts: 10,460 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    The doomsday panic I've seen is the certainty of some that the comet will hit Mars, and all those chunks of Mars will somehow home in on Earth (barely a dot in the Martian sky) and kill us all.

    It's only slightly more believable than Niburu.
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  • lukeminherexxlukeminherexx Member Posts: 81 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    sander233 wrote: »
    Uh, no, because the passing comet will be flying at speeds well in excess of the escape velocity for Mars' gravity well. Its trajectory will be deflected, but there's no chance of a comet ever getting pulled into orbit of any of the inner planets.


    Exactly. Funny, NASA is not even the least bit worried about this. I was there yesterday, discussion is on a new rock we found that may well have elements of life in it. It will be some time before they get all of the information, but it looks very promising! We do know that Mars can support plant life, with a little bit of nutrients added, due to it's high CO2 count. This means colonization of Mars would be easier, but we still have to find an actual water supply, which may well be only beneath the surface.

    Now that's something to be excited about.
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  • markhawkmanmarkhawkman Member Posts: 35,236 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    sander233 wrote: »
    Uh, no, because the passing comet wiil be flying at speeds well in excess of the escape velocity for Mars' gravity well. Its trajectory will be deflected, but there's no chance of a comet ever getting pulled into orbit of any of the inner planets.
    Hmm... I missed that detail. At that speed, a close enough approach would probably cause it to disintegrate. :(
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  • hevachhevach Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    There's some doubt if the sun will hold onto this one, let alone Mars. There's a theory that it could be extrasolar, though we'll never find out. We detected it too late and it's moving too fast to have any hope of getting a craft ready to intercept it.

    @lukeminherexx one of the links I posted, their NASA contact was somewhat concerned. They know craters on Mars as small as a few centimeters are possible, meaning stuff the size of cometary debris can hit the ground with sufficient force to damage the rovers, and we have no idea how dense the meteor rain from an event like this would be. But by the time it happens, everything on or around Mars will be past their nominal lifespans and only one is likely to be working at all.
  • wirtddwirtdd Member Posts: 211 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    Yay! All hoomans are going to die! :D

    Err.... I mean... Aw :(
    Bastet
  • jonsillsjonsills Member Posts: 10,460 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    Hmm... I wonder if the idea of terraforming Mars might get a boost if this comet hit it head-on, depositing all that lovely ice (or, after impact, water) on its surface?

    Just a thought... :D
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  • jkstocbrjkstocbr Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    I don't see what all the fuss is about?

    We'll Just send Bruce Willis up there and he will sort it out.
    God I love that movie; made me cry a little bit.
  • hevachhevach Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    jonsills wrote: »
    Hmm... I wonder if the idea of terraforming Mars might get a boost if this comet hit it head-on, depositing all that lovely ice (or, after impact, water) on its surface?

    Just a thought... :D

    Even if it's 50 km across, most of its mass isn't water ice, it's other gasses and rock. The water added would be beyond trivial, at least on a planetary scale (it'd provide a colony with drinking water basically forever if it were captured somehow, but once dispersed over and off of a planet it's spread pretty thin).

    With the nuclear winter and geological upheaval of an impact that large the planet might lose more water than it gains by underground deposits being exposed to air, evaporating, and being lost into space.
  • disposeableh3r0disposeableh3r0 Member Posts: 1,927 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    No guys. It's my comet, I'm totaly playing sim earth right now and I just bought an ice comet to put some water on mars.


    They made me stop playing on earth after that tsunami. Totaly not my fault btw, I left the game on and some one ordered an earthquake.
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  • khayuungkhayuung Member Posts: 1,876 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    You sure? I picked up lots of Triolic wave spiking with my tricorder recently. I wonder if its got to do with the comet--

    *static*

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  • disposeableh3r0disposeableh3r0 Member Posts: 1,927 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    khayuung wrote: »
    You sure? I picked up lots of Triolic wave spiking with my tricorder recently. I wonder if its got to do with the comet--

    *static*

    Happens when you produce a comet from nowhere.
    As a time traveller, Am I supposed to pack underwear or underwhen?

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  • mimey2mimey2 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    Maybe Q is actually testing your player captain? And your player is in fact the actual cause of the comet due to a time paradox created by your player and the only way to reverse it is to have 3 versions of yourself from different time periods do something at one area?
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  • markhawkmanmarkhawkman Member Posts: 35,236 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    hevach wrote: »
    Even if it's 50 km across, most of its mass isn't water ice, it's other gasses and rock. The water added would be beyond trivial, at least on a planetary scale (it'd provide a colony with drinking water basically forever if it were captured somehow, but once dispersed over and off of a planet it's spread pretty thin).

    With the nuclear winter and geological upheaval of an impact that large the planet might lose more water than it gains by underground deposits being exposed to air, evaporating, and being lost into space.
    Or if it hits one of Mars's polar ice caps, it might trigger a weak green house effect... It's hard to say.
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  • lukeminherexxlukeminherexx Member Posts: 81 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    hevach wrote: »
    @lukeminherexx one of the links I posted, their NASA contact was somewhat concerned. They know craters on Mars as small as a few centimeters are possible, meaning stuff the size of cometary debris can hit the ground with sufficient force to damage the rovers, and we have no idea how dense the meteor rain from an event like this would be. But by the time it happens, everything on or around Mars will be past their nominal lifespans and only one is likely to be working at all.

    Ah, well, this was not discussed, but I can see what you mean. I wonder what the odds really would be that the rovers would/could be hit? I know Mars has a weaker atmosphere, therefor things that would completely break up in our atmosphere would not break up in it's atmosphere. However, even if there is a chance, it would surely be a small chance. Not disputing, just wondering.

    Also, most of the man sent things we have on Mars are past their expected life span, however, it would still be a shame to lose anymore of them.
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  • crypticarmsmancrypticarmsman Member Posts: 4,115 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    captainrevo1 wrote: »
    I dont get it. Why is it a doomsday panic for us?

    its flying near mars and nowhere near us right?

    "The planet Mars exploded 6 million years after we evolved here. The explosion shifted the orbit of Sol III, and everything was lain waste..." ?? :eek::D;)
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  • sander233sander233 Member Posts: 3,992 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    khayuung wrote: »
    You sure? I picked up lots of Triolic wave spiking with my tricorder recently. I wonder if its got to do with the comet--

    *static*

    I'm sure he's alright. The ghosts only feed when the lights go blue. Comet Cocktail, anyone?
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  • lordmanzelotlordmanzelot Member Posts: 468 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Another Doomsday!
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  • hevachhevach Member Posts: 2,777 Arc User
    edited March 2013
    markhawkman wrote: »
    Or if it hits one of Mars's polar ice caps, it might trigger a weak green house effect... It's hard to say.

    Well, if it hits anywhere it could do that, but it won't last regardless. I mean, the planet is already prone to global sandstorms which do warm the surface somewhat, this won't be much better - it'll be over in a few years at most, probably months...

    The data collected, if it's good news, could reignite the imagination, but it won't jump start real plans. And still, an impact is unlikely. Not impossible, but right now it's single digit percents.
    lukeminherexx wrote:
    Ah, well, this was not discussed, but I can see what you mean. I wonder what the odds really would be that the rovers would/could be hit? I know Mars has a weaker atmosphere, therefor things that would completely break up in our atmosphere would not break up in it's atmosphere. However, even if there is a chance, it would surely be a small chance. Not disputing, just wondering.

    Also, most of the man sent things we have on Mars are past their expected life span, however, it would still be a shame to lose anymore of them.

    We don't know the odds. The closest thing we have to compare to is Earth passing through Haley's tail in 1910. A much smaller comet, much farther away, and poorly observed to boot. Stardust's sample collector collected one particle large enough to impact Mars, and ten others that would make it to the ground but lose all of their original speed and drift down on the wind. None of them enough to hurt Curiosity, though they could break the solar panels on a solar powered rover if one of them's still working by then.

    Honestly, while losing a successful rover would be a shame, it's not like we'd be losing them for nothing. Our probes are in a position to get information on the passage as it happens - if things line up just right we might even get some of the most spectacular pictures ever, since the comet will literally fill the sky at its closest approach. Curisoity will have had a long career by then - maybe not long enough, but losing it to gain data on something that might not happen again for centuries is still a hell of an opportunity. It's too fast and caught to late to get a direct probe to it, but our Mars assets are still closer than we've ever gotten to study such a large comet.
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