I know right, what were the odds we could find a stark trek fan good at math?
Can I use this thread as proof when ever someone claims the ships aren't rare and Cryptic is lying about what agreement they made with CBS? 0.5 percent sounds pretty damn rare to me.
Keep in mind, it could be BOTH 0.5% and a fixed number aloted based on the size of the playerbase, after which the drops stop.
So say they made a deal for ships equivalent 1% of the total historical playerbase with CBS. Which counting non-current players, might be something like 5000-10,000 total of each ship, with a number that increases even if the game's population doesn't. So if 50,000 people quit and 25,000 come in, Cryptic adds another 250 ships. And they ration these out through 0.5% lockboxes, which they periodically re-run until they've handed out all the ships. Which could mean that they could be startlingly common to see while still only accounting for 1% of players each, if you count everyone who ever had an account since launch as part of the total userbase, including multiboxers or people who quit two years ago.
Granted, you might see these more in-game than you would expect but that's probably because someone who probably spent over $75 (and probably $200) for one ship is really invested in the game and in showing off their ship.
Don't want to insult anyone, but that sounds a bit paranoid.
And well, it's PWE's/Cryptic'S fault, that people start voicing concerns like that. By not publishing chance tables they create a blind spot in which "conspiracy theories" thrive.
However, I don't believe it, because I don't trust, their tech is good enough to make it feasible to manipulate drop rates and whole drop tables that dynamically. That requires a lot of foresight and deliberation in building these systems.
Even once a dev went on the exchange (was it Salami?) to buy up Golden Lockboxes that were not supposed to be there, and eventually gave up. I also remember an interview with Gozer explaining how drop-tables for STFs are hardcoded into the missions. Duty officers and exploration missions are not dynamically generated but instead taken from a table of thousands of pre-computed instances. Likewise, we cannot have real crafting, since modifiers cannot be attached or detached from items, but ate "baked into the data" of all items instead.
So I think these hints show how rigid and inflexible the game engine is.
AFAIK they code their stuff in plain C without object-orientation built into the programming language. You don't build dynamic systems easily in C, believe me, things tend to break very easily. Don't get me wrong, you can do it, of course. But the gain-per-effort-ratio is bad.
Long story short: They probably can't do manipulations like that, even if they wanted (which I doubt as well).
Regards,
Rachel
I am only refering to 1 item - the grand prize ship - which as another poster indicated they may have a hard number of ships they can give out. So yes I believe manipulaing 1 item in the drop table is more than possible.
Don't want to insult anyone, but that sounds a bit paranoid.
And well, it's PWE's/Cryptic'S fault, that people start voicing concerns like that. By not publishing chance tables they create a blind spot in which "conspiracy theories" thrive.
However, I don't believe it, because I don't trust, their tech is good enough to make it feasible to manipulate drop rates and whole drop tables that dynamically. That requires a lot of foresight and deliberation in building these systems.
Even once a dev went on the exchange (was it Salami?) to buy up Golden Lockboxes that were not supposed to be there, and eventually gave up. I also remember an interview with Gozer explaining how drop-tables for STFs are hardcoded into the missions. Duty officers and exploration missions are not dynamically generated but instead taken from a table of thousands of pre-computed instances. Likewise, we cannot have real crafting, since modifiers cannot be attached or detached from items, but ate "baked into the data" of all items instead.
So I think these hints show how rigid and inflexible the game engine is.
AFAIK they code their stuff in plain C without object-orientation built into the programming language. You don't build dynamic systems easily in C, believe me, things tend to break very easily. Don't get me wrong, you can do it, of course. But the gain-per-effort-ratio is bad.
Long story short: They probably can't do manipulations like that, even if they wanted (which I doubt as well).
Regards,
Rachel
I don't think it's paranoid, Rachel. I just also don't think it's crooked.
There are buggy situations where people were able to open the same box twice with two keys and got different loot. However, in the same situation reversed, they were unable to use two boxes with one key. It means that the box doesn't have pre-generated loot.
The loot is either generated from the key or through a spontaneously executed script. Given that there are multiple kinds of lockboxes using the same keys, the key cannot generate the loot.
Therefore, a script is run when you open the lockbox.
Its loot is not pre-determined from the minute you get the box. It's also not determined from the minute you get the key. Keys and boxes could have hidden seed variables for the randomizer but this is unlikely as it would be unnecessarily taxing on the database.
This means that using a key causes a script to run which distributes loot.
The loot isn't in the box and it isn't "in the key."
There is a continuously accessible script which generates loot procedurally on the fly.
The box itself is irrelevant and contains nothing but simply activates a script, using a key as a reagent, which tells the system to generate and award loot.
This means that using a key causes a script to run which distributes loot.
The loot isn't in the box and it isn't "in the key."
There is a continuously accessible script which generates loot procedurally on the fly.
The box itself is irrelevant and contains nothing but simply activates a script, using a key as a reagent, which tells the system to generate and award loot.
Yes, the box is a perfect Schr?dinger's cat as you describe it. From past experience I just say that they are probably not able to change the rewards table (what you call "script") on the fly, but that there probably needs to be at least a server-side maintenance to swap it.
To explain why this is relevant, casinos have found that interval rewards are more psychologically addictive, which is why slot machines pay out partially based on a timer.
Contrast this with WoW. In that game, it has been shown by clever users that loot is generated two ways in their code:
1) By the box/package. Loot in a box there will always contain the same reward. If you transfer a character with a box to the test server running the same code version and open it, the contents will be the same. The contents of the box only change when a major database altering patch happens.
2) By the instance. As soon as you enter a dungeon in WoW, the loot there is all pre-determined. If I go into Icecrown Citadel, ALL of the loot for that instance of Icecrown is pre-determined. Some of it may require an item I don't have to become visible. Most of it is tied to an enemy at instance generation and the only question is whether I find out what that enemy is holding by killing them. This has been shown by players examining their cache after deleting their cache and entering an instance after a server restart.
The primary reason for this is to prevent database manipulation in the acquisition of loot. I can't hack WoW to change the loot table because the loot for things I haven't seen already exists before I acquire it.
The primary reason for doing it the way STO does is to have the option to manipulate loot procedurally, on the fly. It's a security hole. Give me enough accounts with unique IPs to avoid detection and I could hack it to provide the lockbox loot I want, either by determining when to open a lockbox or perhaps by sending the server tainted information. It would not make sense for Cryptic to have a security hole that big unless they were exploiting it themselves to control lockbox drops.
Now... That doesn't make it crooked or illegal. But it does mean that lockboxes are more complicated than they appear to be.
I hasten to add there is another, more innocent reason for procedural loot generation... and it fits with what we know of the game engine.
Notice how the maps are smaller here than in other MMOs, how instancing is heavily used, how Cryptic talks about a large volume of data being stored per character, and how we have tools like the Foundry and Demorecord?
I think Cryptic's engine DOES subcontract or offload information in key ways that other MMO engines don't.
In WoW, they have a seperate server cluster for hosting instances than for hosting open worlds, which is why cross-server battlegrounds and dungeons became possible.
I believe Cryptic's engine offloads a lot of the generation either to player computers (making their games into massively networked co-op games as a cost saving measure) and/or that instances are created from seed data stored on characters.
Which is why if you make a Foundry mission, I accept it, and then you revise it, I still enter the old version.
Effectively, all instances are created from player or client data. I suspect it's player data which is turned into client data and that the client running on our computers creates or collaborates in creating an instance. (Which is also why Foundry missions generate a script file on the player's hard drive for the mission when the mission is loading.)
It's a fancy, interactive version of a demorecord file for each instance launched.
And as such, loot cannot be predetermined without CREATING a security hole since a player could hack any instance they enter.
I've seen quite a lot of compelling evidence for this and it's quite remarkable as a design mechanism. If I'm right, Cryptic should get me a job interview and an NDA before I blab any more about this. :-)
We put money into fluff and get more fluff, and then we don't get anything new to do with that new fluff. And given how there are more lockbox ships flying around than C-store ships, this game is really becoming more of a Theme Park than an MMO.
This here, only I would change "theme park" to "circus"
We put money into fluff and get more fluff, and then we don't get anything new to do with that new fluff. And given how there are more lockbox ships flying around than C-store ships, this game is really becoming more of a Theme Park than an MMO.
Bingo!!
Can you imagine what this game would be like if we got any content as quick as we get another round of lockboxes. lol
Which would allow them to make changes in the drop rate almost on a minute by minute basis if the wanted to.
As I listed as point #2 above I find this the most troubling prospect.
I don't believe it's entirely legal to manipulate the odds that way since it IS a form of gambling. IF it didn't involve actual money it should be fine but people are buying tickets (keys) with REAL money to open these boxes so payout odds can't be manipulated like that.
I wonder if the Gov't views this 'lockbox lottery' as gambling ?
I don't believe it's entirely legal to manipulate the odds that way since it IS a form of gambling. IF it didn't involve actual money it should be fine but people are buying tickets (keys) with REAL money to open these boxes so payout odds can't be manipulated like that.
I wonder if the Gov't views this 'lockbox lottery' as gambling ?
People keep bringing up the legality of this, but has anyone actually spoken with a lawyer? :rolleyes:
People keep bringing up the legality of this, but has anyone actually spoken with a lawyer? :rolleyes:
Yep; Cryptic/PW has. The simple fact is they would not risk having their game shut down by breaking the law. And even if they would take that risk, it would not be something so obvious that people on the forums were able to figure it out. All of these armchair lawyers are a complete joke.
People keep bringing up the legality of this, but has anyone actually spoken with a lawyer? :rolleyes:
The company I work for builds arcade games. In New Jersey a game that gives out tickets MUST give the same amount everytime or else it's viewed as gambling. You know what machines I'm talking about- you see them in Chuck-E-Cheese, they give out tickets to kids who pay a token (1/2 cent) to play, to get candy and pencil erasers. Is it possible that the NJ AG doesn't know that the guy who won a ship with 10 keys (10 bucks) bought with his mothers credit card had better luck than the guy whose mom paid for 200 keys and didn't win a ship, simply because it's INSIDE a video game on the internet ?
Am I the only one reading all OP's replies with a german accent ?
My favorite ship in the game is luckily a c-store item that I f2p grinded my way to already.
I have a hard time understanding why people are ready to pay the price of a full game for a single item that doesn't really do anything to change your game experience.
It is because gambling is addictive to brain chemistry. The addictive chemistry varies to different degrees in different people. Overall however, gambling is addictive. Therefore, with PWE already knowing this, that is, if their marketers are worth anything whatsoever, they make a safe assumption that a percentage of the player base will be drawn into this addictive habit.
On the other hand we can thank those people's for paying for the servers.
I pity them actually and blame them for not being informed enough to make an intelligent decision when it comes to gambling. Their decision to buy into this revenue system is exactly why this game will never see any serious development; and why should it? If the developers can get away with modeling new ships to earn revenue without touching the game systems or adding any serious content? why would they.
Also I like how they let the tholian ships stay in the lobi shop so you still have a chance at them just like you have to like you are allowed to grind your way to anything in the game.
It is nice of them to have done so. However, the only serious way to earn Lobi is to open lock boxes. A while ago, on the other forums before PWE forums of censorship and despair, the community proved that the average lobi crystal amount you received was not worth the Cryptic points or zen you spent on the master key. It has since then leveled out a lot more. I credit PWE and Cryptic for doing that.
It just sort of feels like the keys and lockbox idea for all the f2p games out there is build on people who can't help themselves and I kind of pity them.
Exactly right and especially those F2P games that have this currently legalized form of virtual gambling! I can only hope that more people become informed and that legislation is passed to band this kind of consumer exploitation? you know, because gambling can be addictive to the human brain. Go ahead and look that up! Don?t take my word on it.
Yep; Cryptic/PW has. The simple fact is they would not risk having their game shut down by breaking the law. And even if they would take that risk, it would not be something so obvious that people on the forums were able to figure it out. All of these armchair lawyers are a complete joke.
I think that's awfully dismissive of the forums. I think we probably have doctors and lawyers on here.
That said, I agree that PWE has consulted lawyers and is comfortable with it and I also think it's pretty clear that they DON'T consider lockboxes gambling. And manipulating the odds in certain ways is what's done in casinos... and in states without gambling, in video poker, roulette and even the crane games you see at malls and department stores. And without a cash prize, there are no rules and it's up to a state attorney general to argue that prizes have cash value. And all PWE has to do is show that they ban anyone they catch selling prizes for cash and reinforce the EULA point that players don't own their ships or characters.
It's like getting upset that a magician isn't really magical.
I think that's awfully dismissive of the forums. I think we probably have doctors and lawyers on here.
Yes, we probably do. But are the doctors and lawyers the ones who are accusing Cryptic/PW of breaking the law? Probably not. Its most likely people who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. So I repeat my previous statement: these armchair lawyers are a complete joke.
Yes, we probably do. But are the doctors and lawyers the ones who are accusing Cryptic/PW of breaking the law? Probably not. Its most likely people who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. So I repeat my previous statement: these armchair lawyers are a complete joke.
Even then, different lawyers and judges have different opinions.
I figure PWE is only currently grossing a few million a year per game (that's gross, not profit) but the fact they were willing to spend $35 million on Cryptic says to me that this is something they're prepared to lobby over and take to the Supreme Court on appeal if they have to.
The goal is bringing a lockbox business model to the fore here. They'll adjust the methods if they have to, they'll release more content, they'll probably adapt from churn (which makes sense in a high pop area like southeast Asia) to more retention focus (because of population demographics). I think they'll also hybridize with simple C-store offerings, the way Cryptic has done. But the lockboxes are the product the game exists to move. Everything else is the sugar that goes with that medicine.
And as someone who disliked the initial boxes, I think we can embrace them, find ways to make them better... Or find another game. They aren't going anywhere. If they were, I think PWE would sooner close the doors on Cryptic and pull the plug on STO than entertain the idea of no lockboxes... And they'd have to, financially. They're what keeps the lights on. Nobody is rolling around on a bed of money from this. The money gets split a lot of ways and STO has the biggest team Cryptic ever had because it's getting reinvested in part.
Okay. Maybe Tacofangs is rolling around on a bed of money. He's a wacky guy. But it's probably nickels.
Even then, different lawyers and judges have different opinions.
I figure PWE is only currently grossing a few million a year per game (that's gross, not profit) but the fact they were willing to spend $35 million on Cryptic says to me that this is something they're prepared to lobby over and take to the Supreme Court on appeal if they have to.
The goal is bringing a lockbox business model to the fore here. They'll adjust the methods if they have to, they'll release more content, they'll probably adapt from churn (which makes sense in a high pop area like southeast Asia) to more retention focus (because of population demographics). I think they'll also hybridize with simple C-store offerings, the way Cryptic has done. But the lockboxes are the product the game exists to move. Everything else is the sugar that goes with that medicine.
And as someone who disliked the initial boxes, I think we can embrace them, find ways to make them better... Or find another game. They aren't going anywhere. If they were, I think PWE would sooner close the doors on Cryptic and pull the plug on STO than entertain the idea of no lockboxes... And they'd have to, financially. They're what keeps the lights on. Nobody is rolling around on a bed of money from this. The money gets split a lot of ways and STO has the biggest team Cryptic ever had because it's getting reinvested in part.
Okay. Maybe Tacofangs is rolling around on a bed of money. He's a wacky guy. But it's probably nickels.
It sounds like PWE doesn't know how to do anything other than monetize chance. I look at GW2 and what ANet is doing there, and I can't help but wonder why Cryptic and PWE can't be profitable doing something else? In that game, cash items are within reach for those who'd rather play the game to earn them while at the same time not being so expensive as to be out of reach for those who'd rather just buy them outright. It's fair and it feels like a good value for your money.
In STO, I have to spend $30 to buy a ship which doesn't change gameplay or add to the experience in any meaningful way except to say "I own X ship." For $30 I could buy an entire new game or subscribe to a subscription-based game for two months. How can that be justified in qualitative value? Easy; it's a lot more for less.
The whole thing feels backwards, arbitrary, and greedy. I have come very close to making purchases in this game a few times since F2P, but each time I get to the options for zen packs and I think to myself, "It's so much money, I could spend it elsewhere and get more for it." It just isn't worth it.
But even so, if I could see measurable development going on that benefits all players--not just those with deep pockets or a lot of time--I'd be more inclined to bite the bullet and make a purchase. At least then I'd feel like the money I give these people is being used wisely. I can't say that right now because all we appear to get is time-gates and insane grinds.
The one thing that bothers me the most about the non-Cstore ships is that with the C-store ships, you buy a ship for $10-$25, which includes a console, and it's always there on your account. But with Fleet Ships, Lockbox Ships, and Lobi ships, you are paying far more for a one-time unlock on one character. So if you accidentally deleted that ship, well you are up a creek without a paddle.
As for Lockbox legalities, it's been brought up countless times, but given nobody has challenged it, we have to assume it is legal. And if it is, the only option you got is to contact your Congressman and explain to them about these lockboxes and how you feel.
It sounds like PWE doesn't know how to do anything other than monetize chance. I look at GW2 and what ANet is doing there, and I can't help but wonder why Cryptic and PWE can't be profitable doing something else? In that game, cash items are within reach for those who'd rather play the game to earn them while at the same time not being so expensive as to be out of reach for those who'd rather just buy them outright. It's fair and it feels like a good value for your money.
Well, for one thing it's a totally different model over there; in GW1 they shot the game out the door and then never touched it for content again. Instead, they produced what were basically standalone games, charging full price, every couple of years. So it's a brand new world over there, and who knows if these new prices will work out long term, or if they'll have to raise them all across the board?
That being said, there's one thing Arenanet has done that PWE should definitely do immediately; hired an Economist to help them figure this stuff out.
Former moderator of these forums. Lifetime sub since before launch. Been here since before public betas. Foundry author of "Franklin Drake Must Die".
Well, for one thing it's a totally different model over there; in GW1 they shot the game out the door and then never touched it for content again. Instead, they produced what were basically standalone games, charging full price, every couple of years. So it's a brand new world over there, and who knows if these new prices will work out long term, or if they'll have to raise them all across the board?
That being said, there's one thing Arenanet has done that PWE should definitely do immediately; hired an Economist to help them figure this stuff out.
@rachelgarrett
In your video you suggest that it's not profitable to open the lockboxes with master keys because you have to spend 238 m of EC to get a ship worth only 90 m, so you get only 33% return from the investment. Seeing as you have spend so much time making those calculations and charts it's surprising that you made such a huge mistake here. You forgot to include in those calculations the 1000 of lobi that you are going to get opening those lockboxes, which will get you another ship worth of +90 m. This already gives you return of 75% and If you sell all the other stuff that drop from the lockboxes you are going to earn additional millions of EC, so in the end the return from the investment will be much closer to 100% than to the 33% you suggested. If someone would wait and sell those item in few months (when prices will rise) they could maybe even make a profit.
[SIGPIC]Join Date: August 2009[/SIGPIC] I live in an alternate universe, where j.j. abrams and cryptic never existed,
where R.S.E. is what it always should be.
@rachelgarrett
In your video you suggest that it's not profitable to open the lockboxes with master keys because you have to spend 238 m of EC to get a ship worth only 90 m, so you get only 33% return from the investment. Seeing as you have spend so much time making those calculations and charts it's surprising that you made such a huge mistake here. You forgot to include in those calculations the 1000 of lobi that you are going to get opening those lockboxes, which will get you another ship worth of +90 m. This already gives you return of 75% and If you sell all the other stuff that drop from the lockboxes you are going to earn additional millions of EC, so in the end the return from the investment will be much closer to 100% than to the 33% you suggested. If someone would wait and sell those item in few months (when prices will rise) they could maybe even make a profit.
Shhhhh
No one ever brings up the idea of selling the "junk" prizes when talking about the price of a lockbox ship. It hurts the nerd rage. Don't bring your math in here and ruin the lockbox hate fest.
No one ever brings up the idea of selling the "junk" prizes when talking about the price of a lockbox ship. It hurts the nerd rage. Don't bring your math in here and ruin the lockbox hate fest.
2 things from the guy who started the thread of lock box odds in 10 forward
1) out of 245 boxes I got no ship (-90 million ec) and this is not the exception some people have openned 300 boxes and gotten no ship.
2)Since you do get 5.5 lobi per box and it take an avg player the 180 boxes (some in the first 10, some in the 290's!!) you are going to spend $240 million ec to get the Temporal destroyer with the lobi
So ypu could easily spend $240 million ec get NO Wells and have enough to sell the destroyer for $95 million now - lets say $100 in the first day as I did
That leaves the avg person $140 to make up with the "JUNK" if they did not get a ship - total from my junk was about $40 million
So if you don't get the grand prize then you are down $100 million ec
That's the Math of it - and it is not nerd rage - i have not been raging ever since the beginning because i knew what i was getting into and have about $500 million ec in the bank if i want to go back and buy the ships.
This was purely to let people know exactly what they are buying into since Cryptic says that these have the best odds and prizes but won't provide the odds
Comments
Keep in mind, it could be BOTH 0.5% and a fixed number aloted based on the size of the playerbase, after which the drops stop.
So say they made a deal for ships equivalent 1% of the total historical playerbase with CBS. Which counting non-current players, might be something like 5000-10,000 total of each ship, with a number that increases even if the game's population doesn't. So if 50,000 people quit and 25,000 come in, Cryptic adds another 250 ships. And they ration these out through 0.5% lockboxes, which they periodically re-run until they've handed out all the ships. Which could mean that they could be startlingly common to see while still only accounting for 1% of players each, if you count everyone who ever had an account since launch as part of the total userbase, including multiboxers or people who quit two years ago.
Granted, you might see these more in-game than you would expect but that's probably because someone who probably spent over $75 (and probably $200) for one ship is really invested in the game and in showing off their ship.
I am only refering to 1 item - the grand prize ship - which as another poster indicated they may have a hard number of ships they can give out. So yes I believe manipulaing 1 item in the drop table is more than possible.
I don't think it's paranoid, Rachel. I just also don't think it's crooked.
There are buggy situations where people were able to open the same box twice with two keys and got different loot. However, in the same situation reversed, they were unable to use two boxes with one key. It means that the box doesn't have pre-generated loot.
The loot is either generated from the key or through a spontaneously executed script. Given that there are multiple kinds of lockboxes using the same keys, the key cannot generate the loot.
Therefore, a script is run when you open the lockbox.
Its loot is not pre-determined from the minute you get the box. It's also not determined from the minute you get the key. Keys and boxes could have hidden seed variables for the randomizer but this is unlikely as it would be unnecessarily taxing on the database.
This means that using a key causes a script to run which distributes loot.
The loot isn't in the box and it isn't "in the key."
There is a continuously accessible script which generates loot procedurally on the fly.
The box itself is irrelevant and contains nothing but simply activates a script, using a key as a reagent, which tells the system to generate and award loot.
Yes, the box is a perfect Schr?dinger's cat as you describe it. From past experience I just say that they are probably not able to change the rewards table (what you call "script") on the fly, but that there probably needs to be at least a server-side maintenance to swap it.
Regards,
Rachel
Contrast this with WoW. In that game, it has been shown by clever users that loot is generated two ways in their code:
1) By the box/package. Loot in a box there will always contain the same reward. If you transfer a character with a box to the test server running the same code version and open it, the contents will be the same. The contents of the box only change when a major database altering patch happens.
2) By the instance. As soon as you enter a dungeon in WoW, the loot there is all pre-determined. If I go into Icecrown Citadel, ALL of the loot for that instance of Icecrown is pre-determined. Some of it may require an item I don't have to become visible. Most of it is tied to an enemy at instance generation and the only question is whether I find out what that enemy is holding by killing them. This has been shown by players examining their cache after deleting their cache and entering an instance after a server restart.
The primary reason for this is to prevent database manipulation in the acquisition of loot. I can't hack WoW to change the loot table because the loot for things I haven't seen already exists before I acquire it.
The primary reason for doing it the way STO does is to have the option to manipulate loot procedurally, on the fly. It's a security hole. Give me enough accounts with unique IPs to avoid detection and I could hack it to provide the lockbox loot I want, either by determining when to open a lockbox or perhaps by sending the server tainted information. It would not make sense for Cryptic to have a security hole that big unless they were exploiting it themselves to control lockbox drops.
Now... That doesn't make it crooked or illegal. But it does mean that lockboxes are more complicated than they appear to be.
Notice how the maps are smaller here than in other MMOs, how instancing is heavily used, how Cryptic talks about a large volume of data being stored per character, and how we have tools like the Foundry and Demorecord?
I think Cryptic's engine DOES subcontract or offload information in key ways that other MMO engines don't.
In WoW, they have a seperate server cluster for hosting instances than for hosting open worlds, which is why cross-server battlegrounds and dungeons became possible.
I believe Cryptic's engine offloads a lot of the generation either to player computers (making their games into massively networked co-op games as a cost saving measure) and/or that instances are created from seed data stored on characters.
Which is why if you make a Foundry mission, I accept it, and then you revise it, I still enter the old version.
Effectively, all instances are created from player or client data. I suspect it's player data which is turned into client data and that the client running on our computers creates or collaborates in creating an instance. (Which is also why Foundry missions generate a script file on the player's hard drive for the mission when the mission is loading.)
It's a fancy, interactive version of a demorecord file for each instance launched.
And as such, loot cannot be predetermined without CREATING a security hole since a player could hack any instance they enter.
I've seen quite a lot of compelling evidence for this and it's quite remarkable as a design mechanism. If I'm right, Cryptic should get me a job interview and an NDA before I blab any more about this. :-)
This here, only I would change "theme park" to "circus"
Bingo!!
Can you imagine what this game would be like if we got any content as quick as we get another round of lockboxes. lol
Division Hispana
www.divisionhispana.com
I don't believe it's entirely legal to manipulate the odds that way since it IS a form of gambling. IF it didn't involve actual money it should be fine but people are buying tickets (keys) with REAL money to open these boxes so payout odds can't be manipulated like that.
I wonder if the Gov't views this 'lockbox lottery' as gambling ?
Awoken Dead
Now shaddup about the queues, it's a BUG
People keep bringing up the legality of this, but has anyone actually spoken with a lawyer? :rolleyes:
Yep; Cryptic/PW has. The simple fact is they would not risk having their game shut down by breaking the law. And even if they would take that risk, it would not be something so obvious that people on the forums were able to figure it out. All of these armchair lawyers are a complete joke.
The company I work for builds arcade games. In New Jersey a game that gives out tickets MUST give the same amount everytime or else it's viewed as gambling. You know what machines I'm talking about- you see them in Chuck-E-Cheese, they give out tickets to kids who pay a token (1/2 cent) to play, to get candy and pencil erasers. Is it possible that the NJ AG doesn't know that the guy who won a ship with 10 keys (10 bucks) bought with his mothers credit card had better luck than the guy whose mom paid for 200 keys and didn't win a ship, simply because it's INSIDE a video game on the internet ?
Awoken Dead
Now shaddup about the queues, it's a BUG
It is because gambling is addictive to brain chemistry. The addictive chemistry varies to different degrees in different people. Overall however, gambling is addictive. Therefore, with PWE already knowing this, that is, if their marketers are worth anything whatsoever, they make a safe assumption that a percentage of the player base will be drawn into this addictive habit.
I pity them actually and blame them for not being informed enough to make an intelligent decision when it comes to gambling. Their decision to buy into this revenue system is exactly why this game will never see any serious development; and why should it? If the developers can get away with modeling new ships to earn revenue without touching the game systems or adding any serious content? why would they.
It is nice of them to have done so. However, the only serious way to earn Lobi is to open lock boxes. A while ago, on the other forums before PWE forums of censorship and despair, the community proved that the average lobi crystal amount you received was not worth the Cryptic points or zen you spent on the master key. It has since then leveled out a lot more. I credit PWE and Cryptic for doing that.
Exactly right and especially those F2P games that have this currently legalized form of virtual gambling! I can only hope that more people become informed and that legislation is passed to band this kind of consumer exploitation? you know, because gambling can be addictive to the human brain. Go ahead and look that up! Don?t take my word on it.
I think that's awfully dismissive of the forums. I think we probably have doctors and lawyers on here.
That said, I agree that PWE has consulted lawyers and is comfortable with it and I also think it's pretty clear that they DON'T consider lockboxes gambling. And manipulating the odds in certain ways is what's done in casinos... and in states without gambling, in video poker, roulette and even the crane games you see at malls and department stores. And without a cash prize, there are no rules and it's up to a state attorney general to argue that prizes have cash value. And all PWE has to do is show that they ban anyone they catch selling prizes for cash and reinforce the EULA point that players don't own their ships or characters.
It's like getting upset that a magician isn't really magical.
Yes, we probably do. But are the doctors and lawyers the ones who are accusing Cryptic/PW of breaking the law? Probably not. Its most likely people who have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. So I repeat my previous statement: these armchair lawyers are a complete joke.
Even then, different lawyers and judges have different opinions.
I figure PWE is only currently grossing a few million a year per game (that's gross, not profit) but the fact they were willing to spend $35 million on Cryptic says to me that this is something they're prepared to lobby over and take to the Supreme Court on appeal if they have to.
The goal is bringing a lockbox business model to the fore here. They'll adjust the methods if they have to, they'll release more content, they'll probably adapt from churn (which makes sense in a high pop area like southeast Asia) to more retention focus (because of population demographics). I think they'll also hybridize with simple C-store offerings, the way Cryptic has done. But the lockboxes are the product the game exists to move. Everything else is the sugar that goes with that medicine.
And as someone who disliked the initial boxes, I think we can embrace them, find ways to make them better... Or find another game. They aren't going anywhere. If they were, I think PWE would sooner close the doors on Cryptic and pull the plug on STO than entertain the idea of no lockboxes... And they'd have to, financially. They're what keeps the lights on. Nobody is rolling around on a bed of money from this. The money gets split a lot of ways and STO has the biggest team Cryptic ever had because it's getting reinvested in part.
Okay. Maybe Tacofangs is rolling around on a bed of money. He's a wacky guy. But it's probably nickels.
It sounds like PWE doesn't know how to do anything other than monetize chance. I look at GW2 and what ANet is doing there, and I can't help but wonder why Cryptic and PWE can't be profitable doing something else? In that game, cash items are within reach for those who'd rather play the game to earn them while at the same time not being so expensive as to be out of reach for those who'd rather just buy them outright. It's fair and it feels like a good value for your money.
In STO, I have to spend $30 to buy a ship which doesn't change gameplay or add to the experience in any meaningful way except to say "I own X ship." For $30 I could buy an entire new game or subscribe to a subscription-based game for two months. How can that be justified in qualitative value? Easy; it's a lot more for less.
The whole thing feels backwards, arbitrary, and greedy. I have come very close to making purchases in this game a few times since F2P, but each time I get to the options for zen packs and I think to myself, "It's so much money, I could spend it elsewhere and get more for it." It just isn't worth it.
But even so, if I could see measurable development going on that benefits all players--not just those with deep pockets or a lot of time--I'd be more inclined to bite the bullet and make a purchase. At least then I'd feel like the money I give these people is being used wisely. I can't say that right now because all we appear to get is time-gates and insane grinds.
As for Lockbox legalities, it's been brought up countless times, but given nobody has challenged it, we have to assume it is legal. And if it is, the only option you got is to contact your Congressman and explain to them about these lockboxes and how you feel.
Well, for one thing it's a totally different model over there; in GW1 they shot the game out the door and then never touched it for content again. Instead, they produced what were basically standalone games, charging full price, every couple of years. So it's a brand new world over there, and who knows if these new prices will work out long term, or if they'll have to raise them all across the board?
That being said, there's one thing Arenanet has done that PWE should definitely do immediately; hired an Economist to help them figure this stuff out.
GW1 and GW2 are two completely different games.
Previous lock boxes were .7%. It's gotten worse.
No, it was still only about .5% even then.
In your video you suggest that it's not profitable to open the lockboxes with master keys because you have to spend 238 m of EC to get a ship worth only 90 m, so you get only 33% return from the investment. Seeing as you have spend so much time making those calculations and charts it's surprising that you made such a huge mistake here. You forgot to include in those calculations the 1000 of lobi that you are going to get opening those lockboxes, which will get you another ship worth of +90 m. This already gives you return of 75% and If you sell all the other stuff that drop from the lockboxes you are going to earn additional millions of EC, so in the end the return from the investment will be much closer to 100% than to the 33% you suggested. If someone would wait and sell those item in few months (when prices will rise) they could maybe even make a profit.
I live in an alternate universe, where j.j. abrams and cryptic never existed,
where R.S.E. is what it always should be.
Shhhhh
No one ever brings up the idea of selling the "junk" prizes when talking about the price of a lockbox ship. It hurts the nerd rage. Don't bring your math in here and ruin the lockbox hate fest.
2 things from the guy who started the thread of lock box odds in 10 forward
1) out of 245 boxes I got no ship (-90 million ec) and this is not the exception some people have openned 300 boxes and gotten no ship.
2)Since you do get 5.5 lobi per box and it take an avg player the 180 boxes (some in the first 10, some in the 290's!!) you are going to spend $240 million ec to get the Temporal destroyer with the lobi
So ypu could easily spend $240 million ec get NO Wells and have enough to sell the destroyer for $95 million now - lets say $100 in the first day as I did
That leaves the avg person $140 to make up with the "JUNK" if they did not get a ship - total from my junk was about $40 million
So if you don't get the grand prize then you are down $100 million ec
That's the Math of it - and it is not nerd rage - i have not been raging ever since the beginning because i knew what i was getting into and have about $500 million ec in the bank if i want to go back and buy the ships.
This was purely to let people know exactly what they are buying into since Cryptic says that these have the best odds and prizes but won't provide the odds