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Anyone care to speculate how much the demand for dilithium will spike tomorrow?
leviathan99
Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
Well...?
What do you think? Think speculators will wind up countering any added value, the Zen conversion will confuse people, or are we looking at 50 dilithium per Zen tomorrow night?
What do you think? Think speculators will wind up countering any added value, the Zen conversion will confuse people, or are we looking at 50 dilithium per Zen tomorrow night?
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I predict little change, if any.
edit: where did you read that the conversion is happening tomorrow?
Registered: Oct/2009 , LTS : Feb/2011
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Big fleets? Yes.
Small fleets? Not as sure.
Small fleets outnumber big fleets 7:1.
Big fleets won't need to buy dilithium. Those 1 man fleets will to keep pace.
I dunno. 1-man fleets are likely very casual players who aren't interested in dumping a lot of real life cash into the game. That is, obviously, just an assumption of mine, so you can take it with a grain of salt or whatever other condiments you prefer to take assumptions with.
Admittedly, it is possible that all of those small fleets tossing in $5-10 worth of C-points looking for Dilithium to boost their Starbase development would affect the market, but that also assumes they're all logging in tomorrow and want to get their starbases developed quickly and right away.
Working on the assumption that 1-player fleets are casual players that aren't in any REAL hurry, it's possible they won't buy up Dilithium all on the same day, but sign on whenever it's convenient over the weekend and next week. If the demand isn't all on one day, it probably won't affect the market that much.
I certainly am in no real hurry to build my one-man starbase. I mean, I'll check out the market, and if I see it drop to something like 50 Dilithium to 1 C-point, then I'll probably buy up a ton of C-points with my current reserve of Dilithium and wait for the market to go back up. I'm as casual as casual gets, too, so I can't be the only one who would think of that plan -- I'd rather get 250 Dil per C-point later than 50 DpC now.
That's all just my assumptions and opinions, take it as such... but I still predict nothing will change all that much.
Of course some will buy for those first missions, but my prediction is the "spike" won't be large.
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I was going to say that there would be no effect. Such as if a company decides to do a 1:2 stock split, the value of your stock will drop by 50% but you will now have two of them so there is actually little change.
But then I'm concern how the dilithium was going to play a role. Would we end up getting the short end of the stick?
In the end, I don't think it'll be an issue. All offers will be adjusted so 8CP = 10 ZEN. So if you are wanting to buy one CP for 200 Dil, it'll automatically be adjusted to one Zen for 150 Dil. If you are selling 8 CP at 200 Dil, it'll automatically adjust to 10 Zen at 200 Dil.
The only "issue" will be with the buyers. Sellers, shouldn't notice much other than having their total changed. But if Cryptic has done the conversion numbers right (as I've got a slight headache and will admit my math may be off) then the market should stay stable.
As for the Supply/Demand issue: I'd say it'll have, at most, a 10% jump over the weekend and then drop back down to where it was. If the release of the much requested T5 Akira had little effect, I don't think this will either.
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I don;t see dil as an issue. I don;t know about the rest of you but I'm sitting on 300k refined. There may be a spike but I don;t think it'll go that high.
Do remember that we are also at the high end of the allowed ratio.
350-365:1 is my guess. Considering we're at about 345:1 I wouldn't even call that 5%.
I will be though playing it safe and removing all exchange offers before I leave for the night in an hour.
edit: Also the amounts of dil aren't really that huge. Seems like between 10-30k per chore.
http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=302791
Hope this helps.
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It's entirely possible, but given the exchange rate for cp-->zen I would still be somewhat surprised. The logic being that if a player has, say, 800 CP in their account tonight, then tomorrow they should have 1000 Zen, and I would guess that a math-challenged player would look at this seeming "increase" as a win. But then there's always the conspiracy theorists...
This is exactly my thinking. The majority of players will not even be aware of how much dilithium that they're going to need for the new content. There will be an initial spike as people become aware of the changes when the patch hits but it's long term that there will be a big change. Note that there appears to be rate limits implemented based on time. It will take a while for the full demand to kick in.
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At the very least it'll be a few days until stockpiles emptied. There won't be a spike instantly.
While it is true that they will need dilithium and want to give as little zen as possible, the reverse is much more possible: the Dilithium will become one of the most used resources and players wouldn't want to burn it away at 500 per Zen rate, and will actually try to get as much Zen for a chunk of dilithium as possible and won't settle for less because they can just use it for fleet bases.
Does this mean I might actually be able to afford C-Store items now with less effort?
Any increase in Dilithium demand is fantastic.
ACtually I think we're discussing what it well do in general.
Seems like when anything happens though, the ratio goes up so more dils are required for less cpoints/zen. So I guess that would be a bad thing for you.
Me too actually. I;m still holding out for the ToS pack.
It's good old demand vs supply. When supply of good X is higher than demand, then the price drops, becuase they have to cut prices to get people to buy. Conversly when the oppossitte is tue prices go up becuase they know people need it, but there isn't enough to go around so they know people will pay through the nose to get any at all.
With larger fleets over-producing dilithium by a fair margin i don't see there being a non-excess supply of dilithium. On the other hand there is going to be a very limited amount of zen to spend. On top of that dilithium is free, zen is real money. Thats allways going to push peole to try and get the most value out of it.
Now if things work out like I would hope, with the game relaunching if the Dilithum will go down to just 50 Dilithium per C-point/Zen well then I can turn around and sell the 3,440 Dilithium I bought last night for 68.8 C-point/Zen. I think that is a pretty good profit margin to take just 10 C-points and turn it into almost 70. But I didnt want to gamble too much by selling the other 340 C-points for dilithium cause if the Dilithium prices dont work like I would like I would take a loss. Atleast with 10 C-points I can sit on it and sell the dilithium at a later date to get my money back.
Again is it really that high of a demand? The largest mission I;ve seen is 30k in dil.
I do that in 2 days between the main and dil trading.
Oh forgot to mention, the turn in contrband is going up to 5 contrabands. i was on the tribble server as that,
Items require dilithium thus dilithium prices go up.
-> people need dilithium because they want new starbase items
-> people convert c-points / zen for dilithium
-> people dump c-points for dilithium
-> c-points become less valuable - not enough people doing dilithium to c-point conversions
-> c-point prices go down (and dilithium becomes more valuable thus lowering c-point values)
Basically the other day I did some calculations on EC - Dilithium - Cpoint values (because I was trying to see what an efficient Dil -> EC acquisition method was and I got)
If buying Uncommon Unreplicatable Mats and selling for 55000 EC on exchange:
55000 Ec = 1000 Dil (Price of 1 Mat)
55 EC = 1 Dil
345 Dil = 1 C (Dilithium (Cpoint exchange)
18975 EC = 1 C (Division)
So 18975 EC = 345 Dil = 1 C
I would like to see how that changes after update.
So, you think my 1.5M Dilthium will be enough?
When I joined during the 2 year annivesary during the f2p launch weekend, a couple weeks later I ended up with an exchange rate of 175 Dilithium = 1 C-point. Thats why I havent traded my stock pile of Dilithium is its up to 348 Dilithium = 1 C-point as of last night before I went to bed.
I hope it goes down some, enough that I can sell the Dilithium I got last night at the 344 : 1 rate for 10 C-points, that I can turn around and make some money. I keep eyeing the TOS bridge pack for my Refit Cosntitution and I also keep eyeing the Dreadnought Galaxy or the Galaxy refit for my USS Thomas Jackson A.
Oh yeah... it did go that low about then didn't it... Sad day. I wish Starbases would drive it that low again, but I think we'll be lucky if it goes below 300.
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