Yeah, got a similar experience from the Gold Boxes, don't really think the chance of getting the Galor is really better than with the Green Ones ....
Q: How is a Cardassian Lock Box Gold different from a normal Cardassian Lock Box?
A: The Gold boxes are special in two ways. First, they have a substantially better chance of awarding the more desirable items. Second, they have a slightly different list of rewards. The possible rewards are:
If you ask me that just refers to the fact that there are only 7 items instead of 15 from the Green Ones .... but imho the items from the Gold Ones, are not that desirable either (except the console perhaps ....)
My theory is that they, particularly with the announcements, actually have a relatively fixed amount of these ships and want to use variable interval reinforcement where the time rather than "lever pulls" is used for the average; I'd tried to guess the population of STO from the hourly rate of announcements before but I think I see the error in that idea now because it seemed like such a consistent number per hour.
In a VR schedule, slot machines pay out on a certain number of pulls on average... but the imprecision makes it more compelling. Replace "lever pulls" with "minutes."
I think this thing is setup to issue a ship, on average (but not precisely and may skip or hold until enough players are playing), once every three minutes. ON AVERAGE.
In turn, if you DO get it, it ignores what box you had. If you DON'T get it, it uses your box to determine a consolation prize.
Now... Here's the thing. People who play in off hours areprobably more likely to get multiples if the schedule is forgiving. Hence why some people pull multiples. Play when the servers are at peak and your odds may be lower.
It's still chance but it's managed chance, not a grab bag.
I'm HEAVILY leaning towards this hypothesis anyway.
Yeah, got a similar experience from the Gold Boxes, don't really think the chance of getting the Galor is really better than with the Green Ones ....
If you ask me that just refers to the fact that there are only 7 items instead of 15 from the Green Ones .... but imho the items from the Gold Ones, are not that desirable either (except the console perhaps ....)
What you think is desirable, and what Cryptic thinks is desirable, are two different things.
What you think is desirable, and what Cryptic thinks is desirable, are two different things.
Sure thing ... still don't know how "Shield Packs" are desirable when you can buy them for 20,000 EC from the Exchange .... or "Crossfire Tribble" the one many of us already got for free .... but sure that's just my opinion .... that's why i said "IMHO"
Now... Here's the thing. People who play in off hours areprobably more likely to get multiples if the schedule is forgiving. Hence why some people pull multiples. Play when the servers are at peak and your odds may be lower.
If you're right then it fits for me. I got my second one from a Gold Box drop from an STF (Normal) last night. I play around 11-Midnightish.
If you're right then it fits for me. I got my second one from a Gold Box drop from an STF (Normal) last night. I play around 11-Midnightish.
Don't think thats the case ... because it would kind of favor EU Players ... since I'm an EU Player and tried something similar around 10 AM GMT+0.... i doubt it ....
I got a Golar today, USA player, about 1pm to 2pm server time. Gold box dropped in Zaria mission, bought key off exchange after I completed the rest of the Deferi Dailies and flew back to ESD.. So far I have opened 3 golds (3rd was the galor) and 6ish of the normal ones, all keys were bought by other accounts. Except for the Galor, all boxes I opened were crossfires or Gamma stuff. I have gotten about 120 lockbox drops, bought a similar amount to sell on first day, so far gotten 4 gold boxes (2 dropped today).
Don't think thats the case ... because it would kind of favor EU Players ... since I'm an EU Player and tried something similar around 10 AM GMT+0.... i doubt it ....
Only slightly.
I think the more operative consideration here is that one drops ROUGHLY every three minutes. And there's always enough people playing that your odds will never spike up dramatically.
Slot machines employ this tactic so there are regular, visible winners. Casino owners pay out 90% (and run tighter margins on many other games) but keep people hooked by making sure slot machines are going off routinely.
The reason why they don't disclose odds is because the odds aren't static. There can be provisions in the code. For example, if fewer people are logged in, it could slow down or speed up the number given out.
Point being, this isn't a typical pre-generated MMO loot system. It also isn't a case of a single, simple dice roll upon opening a box.
Understand, this isn't one of those "this is illegal" threads that some people have tried. All I'm saying is, I think there are clues that this employs more sophisticated casino style tactics than a simple loot table.
I think the more operative consideration here is that one drops ROUGHLY every three minutes. And there's always enough people playing that your odds will never spike up dramatically.
If this is the case, then how would that explain the "debatable" spam that was generated so constantly when the lockboxes were first introduced? Were the numbers of times that message appeared noticably different after a server update/downtime?
I'm not sure I really buy this mechanism. That seems a lot of programming to throttle how many Galors get into the game, and nontrivial to adjust without anyone noticing. Code, even RNGs, are fairly reliably consistent.
Then again, if that were really the case, people wouldn't be striking out at zero for a hundred for EDCs on STFs. =P
I thought maybe gold boxes would prove worthwhile. This test makes me dubious.
That's the point. I thought gold boxes would have substantially higher odds of the ship, whereas they just seem to be regular boxes without the less desirable loot... And my gut now says that the ships are not part of a single roll loot table at all but rationed out through other means.
If this is the case, then how would that explain the "debatable" spam that was generated so constantly when the lockboxes were first introduced? Were the numbers of times that message appeared noticably different after a server update/downtime?
I'm not sure I really buy this mechanism. That seems a lot of programming to throttle how many Galors get into the game, and nontrivial to adjust without anyone noticing. Code, even RNGs, are fairly reliably consistent.
Then again, if that were really the case, people wouldn't be striking out at zero for a hundred for EDCs on STFs. =P
I don't believe so. I think it's been a pretty consistent 18-25 an hour, probably averaging around 20 (ie. once every three minutes) regardless of load.
And the reason it would be worthwhile is that it's scientifically known to be the most reliable and addictive form of betting system, one that creates compulsive responses from participants and one which does not degrade in effectiveness over time as a money making strategy with large groups.
I had a few C-points laying around after getting the D'Kyr for my Science officer, so I decided to give in and open up my 2 golden boxes on my Klingon toon. I got the following results:
- Klingon Junior Cadre
- Crossfire Tribble
I was not amused. Especially not when I saw a few Galors hanging around DS9 later. >.<
I thought maybe gold boxes would prove worthwhile. This test makes me dubious.
That's the point. I thought gold boxes would have substantially higher odds of the ship, whereas they just seem to be regular boxes without the less desirable loot... And my gut now says that the ships are not part of a single roll loot table at all but rationed out through other means.
Thanks for checking. It's good to know that the odds of getting the ship aren't necessarily any better on the gold boxes. Or at the very least it seems they're not enough better that they still aren't minuscule. I was thinking if the gold box had maybe a 5% chance? Whether it's really just an incredibly small chance, or whether it's metered somehow, either way the odds are way too long.
I don't really understand it as it seems like they could just have made the gold boxes rarer but with a fairly high chance of getting the ship. That way if someone really wants to grind forever for gold boxes they'd probably get the ship without spending that much money.
It almost seems to me that the contests are designed to upset the largest number of people. There are a lot of little tweaks that could be done to make the whole thing more palatable without even lowering the income from the promotion.
In turn, if you DO get it, it ignores what box you had. If you DON'T get it, it uses your box to determine a consolation prize.
If that were true then Cryptic would be making a false statement and besides worrying about class action lawsuits, that could be considered fraud.
I think they probably do pay out Galors at a higher rate. Probably the drop rate is something like 0.5% as with the previous Jem'Hadar ship and maybe 0.75% or 1% for the gold boxes.
I also think that the boxes have a standard loot table, meaning a number is randomly generated (say between 1-201) and if that number is n, you get the ship.
If that were true then Cryptic would be making a false statement and besides worrying about class action lawsuits, that could be considered fraud.
Why ? The whole statement is kind of "CRYPTIC" ... can't find the statement were it says "Goldboxes have a better chance of getting the Galor"
A: The Gold boxes are special in two ways. First, they have a substantially better chance of awarding the more desirable items
It just says the more "desirable" Items (plural, so obviously not just the one Galor Ship).... since "Crossfire Tribbles" and "Shield Packs" with blue MkX Shields ... seem to be desirable by Cryptic standards, I guess the desirability of the Galor Ship is open to discussion ...
Why ? The whole statement is kind of "CRYPTIC" ... can't find the statement were it says "Goldboxes have a better chance of getting the Galor"
It just says the more "desirable" Items (plural, so obviously not just the one Galor Ship).... since "Crossfire Tribbles" and "Shield Packs" with blue MkX Shields ... seem to be desirable by Cryptic standards, I guess the desirability of the Galor Ship is open to discussion ...
While playing, be on the lookout for special Gold Lock Boxes! These boxes have significantly higher odds of rewarding the more desirable items.
"Cryptic's standards," are irrelevant. The only standards that matter (legally speaking) are that of a reasonable person. A reasonable person would infer, based on consumer demand and the fact that they have made the ship the least likely prize, that the ship is the most desirable item in the lottery. Failure to increase the odds for the gold box tickets would probably constitute false advertising and possibly even fraud, which is why I doubt that the odds are the same.
If I had to take a blind guess, I would infer based on the Jem'Hadar ship that the odds were about 200:1 for the regular boxes and maybe 50%-100% greater for the gold boxes.
I thought maybe gold boxes would prove worthwhile. This test makes me dubious.
That's the point. I thought gold boxes would have substantially higher odds of the ship, whereas they just seem to be regular boxes without the less desirable loot... And my gut now says that the ships are not part of a single roll loot table at all but rationed out through other means.
I am aware of the theory you speak about in comparisons to one-armed bandits. I would suggest repeating your test at different times if possible to get a control of some sort.
"Cryptic's standards," are irrelevant. The only standards that matter (legally speaking) are that of a reasonable person. A reasonable person would infer, based on consumer demand and the fact that they have made the ship the least likely prize, that the ship is the most desirable item in the lottery. Failure to increase the odds for the gold box tickets would probably constitute false advertising and possibly even fraud, which is why I doubt that the odds are the same.
If I had to take a blind guess, I would infer based on the Jem'Hadar ship that the odds were about 200:1 for the regular boxes and maybe 50%-100% greater for the gold boxes.
I don't think you can define "reasonable Person" nor "desirable Item" (doubt you could argue with such vague statements in a court of law) , and since "desirable Items" (plural) clearly refers to at least 2 items, I'm not quite sure what these 2 items should be .... maybe the "Galor" and the "Console" ... but it's just getting harder to assume this plural might refer to 3 or 4 Items .... imho there are not more than 2 reasonable desirable Items in the whole Gold Box Loot Table ...
With using your "Cryptic standards are irrelevant", i could sue Cryptic for using the plural ... because the Galor is the only desirable Item for a lot of us ....
So I farmed up a few then copied a character to Tribble a few times to see what I'd get...
I can say with relative certainty after extensive testing on enemies who have no loot table that:
I'll provide my theory in my next post. For now, here's my results from 60 gold boxes:
For a proper statistical analysis, 60 is much too small a sample size... You really need a number around 500 to a 1000 for anything close to reliable result....
My bottom line is... If you want the console, for example, and you only want to spend $12.50 or so on keys, it's worth farming a gold box or two.
If you want the ship, you might as well use keys on the basic boxes or (the smarter and likely less expensive route) spend your money on C-Store items that can be sold for EC and buy one on the exchange.
Comments
If you ask me that just refers to the fact that there are only 7 items instead of 15 from the Green Ones .... but imho the items from the Gold Ones, are not that desirable either (except the console perhaps ....)
My theory is that they, particularly with the announcements, actually have a relatively fixed amount of these ships and want to use variable interval reinforcement where the time rather than "lever pulls" is used for the average; I'd tried to guess the population of STO from the hourly rate of announcements before but I think I see the error in that idea now because it seemed like such a consistent number per hour.
http://www.strange-loops.com/scislotmachines.html
In a VR schedule, slot machines pay out on a certain number of pulls on average... but the imprecision makes it more compelling. Replace "lever pulls" with "minutes."
I think this thing is setup to issue a ship, on average (but not precisely and may skip or hold until enough players are playing), once every three minutes. ON AVERAGE.
In turn, if you DO get it, it ignores what box you had. If you DON'T get it, it uses your box to determine a consolation prize.
Now... Here's the thing. People who play in off hours areprobably more likely to get multiples if the schedule is forgiving. Hence why some people pull multiples. Play when the servers are at peak and your odds may be lower.
It's still chance but it's managed chance, not a grab bag.
I'm HEAVILY leaning towards this hypothesis anyway.
What you think is desirable, and what Cryptic thinks is desirable, are two different things.
Sure thing ... still don't know how "Shield Packs" are desirable when you can buy them for 20,000 EC from the Exchange .... or "Crossfire Tribble" the one many of us already got for free .... but sure that's just my opinion .... that's why i said "IMHO"
If you're right then it fits for me. I got my second one from a Gold Box drop from an STF (Normal) last night. I play around 11-Midnightish.
Don't think thats the case ... because it would kind of favor EU Players ... since I'm an EU Player and tried something similar around 10 AM GMT+0.... i doubt it ....
I have never seen a Gold box btw
Only slightly.
I think the more operative consideration here is that one drops ROUGHLY every three minutes. And there's always enough people playing that your odds will never spike up dramatically.
Slot machines employ this tactic so there are regular, visible winners. Casino owners pay out 90% (and run tighter margins on many other games) but keep people hooked by making sure slot machines are going off routinely.
The reason why they don't disclose odds is because the odds aren't static. There can be provisions in the code. For example, if fewer people are logged in, it could slow down or speed up the number given out.
Point being, this isn't a typical pre-generated MMO loot system. It also isn't a case of a single, simple dice roll upon opening a box.
Understand, this isn't one of those "this is illegal" threads that some people have tried. All I'm saying is, I think there are clues that this employs more sophisticated casino style tactics than a simple loot table.
Just curious, not trying be be a jerk or anything (for clarity)
I've opened only 2 Gold boxes, got Klingon Console and Gamma Commodities.
Bought keys to both of exchange (950k)
1st - KDF cadre (est 1.8m worth)
2nd - 10k cxp (est 20k worth)
Broke more or less even
If this is the case, then how would that explain the "debatable" spam that was generated so constantly when the lockboxes were first introduced? Were the numbers of times that message appeared noticably different after a server update/downtime?
I'm not sure I really buy this mechanism. That seems a lot of programming to throttle how many Galors get into the game, and nontrivial to adjust without anyone noticing. Code, even RNGs, are fairly reliably consistent.
Then again, if that were really the case, people wouldn't be striking out at zero for a hundred for EDCs on STFs. =P
I'm a grad student who's on spring break.
And the boxes were obtained through repeatedly copying one character with a handful of them to Tribble.
I thought maybe gold boxes would prove worthwhile. This test makes me dubious.
That's the point. I thought gold boxes would have substantially higher odds of the ship, whereas they just seem to be regular boxes without the less desirable loot... And my gut now says that the ships are not part of a single roll loot table at all but rationed out through other means.
I don't believe so. I think it's been a pretty consistent 18-25 an hour, probably averaging around 20 (ie. once every three minutes) regardless of load.
And the reason it would be worthwhile is that it's scientifically known to be the most reliable and addictive form of betting system, one that creates compulsive responses from participants and one which does not degrade in effectiveness over time as a money making strategy with large groups.
- Klingon Junior Cadre
- Crossfire Tribble
I was not amused. Especially not when I saw a few Galors hanging around DS9 later. >.<
Thanks for checking. It's good to know that the odds of getting the ship aren't necessarily any better on the gold boxes. Or at the very least it seems they're not enough better that they still aren't minuscule. I was thinking if the gold box had maybe a 5% chance? Whether it's really just an incredibly small chance, or whether it's metered somehow, either way the odds are way too long.
I don't really understand it as it seems like they could just have made the gold boxes rarer but with a fairly high chance of getting the ship. That way if someone really wants to grind forever for gold boxes they'd probably get the ship without spending that much money.
It almost seems to me that the contests are designed to upset the largest number of people. There are a lot of little tweaks that could be done to make the whole thing more palatable without even lowering the income from the promotion.
If that were true then Cryptic would be making a false statement and besides worrying about class action lawsuits, that could be considered fraud.
I think they probably do pay out Galors at a higher rate. Probably the drop rate is something like 0.5% as with the previous Jem'Hadar ship and maybe 0.75% or 1% for the gold boxes.
I also think that the boxes have a standard loot table, meaning a number is randomly generated (say between 1-201) and if that number is n, you get the ship.
Why ? The whole statement is kind of "CRYPTIC"
It just says the more "desirable" Items (plural, so obviously not just the one Galor Ship).... since "Crossfire Tribbles" and "Shield Packs" with blue MkX Shields ... seem to be desirable by Cryptic standards, I guess the desirability of the Galor Ship is open to discussion ...
"Cryptic's standards," are irrelevant. The only standards that matter (legally speaking) are that of a reasonable person. A reasonable person would infer, based on consumer demand and the fact that they have made the ship the least likely prize, that the ship is the most desirable item in the lottery. Failure to increase the odds for the gold box tickets would probably constitute false advertising and possibly even fraud, which is why I doubt that the odds are the same.
If I had to take a blind guess, I would infer based on the Jem'Hadar ship that the odds were about 200:1 for the regular boxes and maybe 50%-100% greater for the gold boxes.
Regarding people's userids being spammed to all users in the game, it's interesting that the TOS says this:
Please note that, you are responsible for maintaining the confidentiality and security of your User ID and password.
I am aware of the theory you speak about in comparisons to one-armed bandits. I would suggest repeating your test at different times if possible to get a control of some sort.
I don't think you can define "reasonable Person" nor "desirable Item" (doubt you could argue with such vague statements in a court of law) , and since "desirable Items" (plural) clearly refers to at least 2 items, I'm not quite sure what these 2 items should be .... maybe the "Galor" and the "Console" ... but it's just getting harder to assume this plural might refer to 3 or 4 Items .... imho there are not more than 2 reasonable desirable Items in the whole Gold Box Loot Table ...
With using your "Cryptic standards are irrelevant", i could sue Cryptic for using the plural ... because the Galor is the only desirable Item for a lot of us ....
Guess thats why they didn't say "Gold Boxes have a better chance of getting the least likely prize" :P
Opened ~4 boxes, no ship yet.
Will take you hypothesis onboard. Thanks for this
If you want the ship, you might as well use keys on the basic boxes or (the smarter and likely less expensive route) spend your money on C-Store items that can be sold for EC and buy one on the exchange.