Lockbox Mastery Key vs Exchange?

stormwind81

So where are the math teachers here?

I want to calculate an weird thought process.
How many keys "probably" would I need to buy to get the new upcoming ship, or any other "most-wanted" T6 lootbox ship (Atlas TOS, Mirror Constitution Warship) compared to just buying those ships in the exchange?
(and we get that its rng and that you cant be sure ever, but I want to have some faithful calculations).
I read somewhere the probability for T6 lockbox ships is 2% ?
Idk how much the new ship will be on the exchange but other ships like that go between 900 and 1500 million if you not buying from a scalper
Thats like 170 keys. With that many keys I might never get it but I might get other stuff that is also very good!? Who knows?

tom61sto

It's almost always better to buy from someone on the Exchange. The odds are closer to 1 in 250 than 170, though Cryptic has never officially published the win rate. Keeping your run going by selling off the drops isn't particularly good either, as very few things sell for as much as the price of a key, much less more than a key. Lobi you'd have to buy massive amounts of keys (as each usually only comes up to an average of 5, though the absolue minimum is 4 per box) to get enough Lobi to have a ship to sale, and even then Lobi ship prices are fairly low now. There are rare exceptions and luck is involved, but by and large Exchange is the better option.

nixie50

unless you are the girl I work with. I swear she enters a contest and wins every freaking time... I did the gamble boxes twice, first time I got the first temporal Connie the second I got a D-7. i got very lucky on both, I think i ws in a total of $50.00

Unknown

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